TWO (Twin) X-Class Solar Flares Earth-directed: Double-Whammy??

Galaxy387 says..
X5.4 - Begin: 0002 Max: 0024 End: 0040
X1.3 - Begin: 0105 Max: 0114 End: 0123

NASA says X-class flares are capable of "creating radiation storms that can harm satellites, communications systems, and even ground-based technologies and power grids"

I'd shared this over in another thread when the little X-1 popped a couple days ago from 1429 and now of course, a 5.4 from 1429 and an x1.3 from 1430. It's getting active out there.

Solar Map and Data Per Sunspot and History of Activity for Each

The definitions for color segments within each circle on the solar map open from a link below the map. As that shows, 1429 has been quite active. It can just settle back down any time now, too.

Here is trhe data charts. Getting pretty wicked out there.

www.raben.com...

reply to post by BiggerPicture


Title says earth directed, but the map is showing it to be in the area least likely to be earth directed, am I not seeing this properly? If not my mistake, gotta ask though what's the likelihood these are earth directed mce's?

I love the fact that the title of your post wasn't something like: "All hell is about to erupt due to possible apocalyptic eruptions from the sun!!!" It's nice to see something a little more down to Earth. With that being said, I did hear these were indeed earthbound, does anyone really know the implications of this? I am curious to know.

I guess it would be nice to note that I heard it was earthbound from a source on youtube, not sure how credible it actually is.

Here is what spaceweather.com has to say.

www.spaceweather.com...

This eruption hurled a bright CME into space. First-look data from STEREO-B are not sufficient to determine if the cloud is heading for Earth. Our best guess is "probably, yes, but not directly toward Earth." A glancing blow to our planet's magnetosphere is possible on March 8th or 9th.

Yes, it is Earth-directed. This NOAA page has animations of the solar wind predictions:
www.swpc.noaa.gov...

At the time of this posting, the animation has not been updated yet. What you see at the time of the posting is the X1 that this flare sent off on March 4 which was followed by a M class. Once updated, you will see an X5 followed by an X1 aimed just to the bottom of the green dot to the right (Earth). It will not be a 100% direct hit, but Earth will get a significant portion of the CME.

DO NOT PANIC.

I have been watching solar activity since the last solar minimum (early 2000s) and we had plenty of X-class flares back then. That is not to say two X flares in rapid succession is insignificant, it is just that I do not think there would be much terrestrial impact. We'll have to see how the magnetosphere holds up. Satellite communications could be adversely affected but that is all I would expect.

THE GOOD NEWS:
There is an excellent chance of a great aurora show in a couple days!

I'd like to add that according to the GOES x-ray flux link, this looks like just one solar flare. Where the graph comes off of the M5 there seems to be a little tick as the x-ray decreases but it does not look like a completely separate flare. I expect just one big CME but that alone will still provide a nice light show in the sky for many of us.