The UK Housing Market.

Is your money safe as houses ??

Nothing as safe as bricks and mortar we are told. With nations economies tumbling like a house of cards around us, property would certainly seem one of the safest havens for ones riches, although gold would appear to be the numero uno choice.

Many areas of the UK are experiencing a reduction in property prices, some quite dramatically.
But in Harrogate, sellers seem to be in some sort of denial
The same old properties have been for sale, at the same old over-inflated prices for well over a year, some much longer than that !!

What does the future hold for property here in the UK ??
At the moment we have an historic low interest rate, which looks unlikely to rise for some time, well not until next year at least.
But we have the banks reluctant to lend money without a substantial deposit and an impeccable credit rating.
How can first time buyers save the deposit in this economic nightmare climate, no chance with extortionate rising bills etc.

Then of course if a seller does actually sell, there's the dreaded " chain " to contend with !!
OOoooh I've sold my property !!
Erm well actually you have if we can sell ours, and our buyer can sell theirs !!

So will property crash in price ??
If it does, what effect will negative equity have on the overall economy ??
Will prices ever return to 3 x salary ???

Just wondered if anybody had a take on all this, what do you see ahead for the market ??

peace
uk today

Sold my house 4yrs ago now renting, my old house just sold again, £40k less than I sold it for! I suggest we rent, no debts no repression if you lose your job. Much more relaxed these days. Chill out.

I am concerned for my family and friends. Most of them are in the process of buying their property. Some of them are just about managing to make ends meet. I suspect that interest rates will rise next year.
I hope they do not increase too much.
I really hope the interest rates of the last recession (1990 ish) never happen again.
If memory serves it was something like 19%. The average mortgage went from £350 to something like £1000 a month!
So so many people lost their houses then.

If you have a house, sell! Probably too late...

If your thinking of buying, Don't!

During my career I have sold thousands of houses. I was one of the few calling the bubble in 2005. In 2008 I had friends calling me to say. "How did you know?" And for the last 3 years I have been warning everyone I can that the worst is yet to come.

Simply put - Property will drop up to 60% or more to current value and will take a minimum of 25 years to even come close to regaining the dizzying heights experienced during the last 10 years.

What we are about to expereince will make the 1930's look like a walk in the park...

Batten down the hatches cause its gonna get ugly out there.........

I'm hoping the crashing of the economy will see Immigrants that own houses here cash up and take their money back to their homelands, where they could live like rich people. And hopefully that will see house prices drop to a level that are affordable for us poor natives. Not to mention the jobs that would become available too, in that scenario.

reply to post by ken10


As an immigrant to the UK, who has chosen not to "buy" property and holds a full time job I assure you, that others like me who HAVE chosen to buy property, aren't going anywhere.

I could care less about property prices, I am not buying, I do not need to pay rent to the bank in order to feel my life is complete. On the continent people rent for lifetimes, and it doesn't mean they aren't happy or successful.

This whole idea of getting on the property ladder is a joke. Our young people are being told they have to first go into ridiculous debt to get an education and then..buy a house, because that is the key to success. Bollocks.

For me, my two bed rented flat is my home, for now. If I lose my job tomorrow, or get sick, or decide to move to some other country or area, I can do all that at the drop of a hat.

IF I ever were to decide to buy, it would be a HOME, not an investment, that is what home ownership should be about.

reply to post by diddy1234


The Global economy is only going to get much much worse from here on in, in fact you will see it excellerate between now and the next 12-18 months with no end in sight before 2014/2015. Now is not the time to buy property at least until towards end of 2013 and even then you'll have to be careful.

The only problem now is as housing prices fall, rental prices will increase and there is going to be a major shortage of rental properties.

reply to post by bluemirage5

The only problem now is as housing prices fall, rental prices will increase and there is going to be a major shortage of rental properties.

I believe it is the other way round, especially here in the UK. The "Buy to let" mortgages have seen many people (many from other countries) pay extra for houses to let as means of an income. So I don't believe house prices can fall significantly until the prices for rent reduce....And for that to happen there would need to be a lack of jobs that would see economic migrants leave.

reply to post by ken10


The UK is different to Australia. In some areas property prices are decreasing but rental prices are dramatically increasing and already we have a major shortage of affordable housing and rentals.

Originally posted by bsalert
Sold my house 4yrs ago now renting, my old house just sold again, £40k less than I sold it for! I suggest we rent, no debts no repression if you lose your job. Much more relaxed these days. Chill out.

Thanks for your reply

The reason I did this thread was because I really wanted some guidance on whether to buy or rent, let me explain my circumstances a lil'.
I am currently going through a relationship split. We both co-own our house and my partner is going to keep the house and buy out my share.

But I do follow world economics and I really think that property is heading south BIG time !!
So using that logic, it would obviously make sense to rent and eventually buy when the housing market has reached its low, but how low will it go ??

My worry is what happens though if property does rise, unlikely as it may seem. ??
My parents took the risk of selling and renting about 10 yrs ago, unfortunately it backfired because the boom came and they outpriced themselves out of the market as it all happened fast.
This mistake was very costly indeed and was one of the factors that actually led to my mums suicide, a small factor but it was certainly contributory to it.

Anyway whatever happens, one thing is for sure, I'll not be able to buy in Harrogate
A terraced house is about 130k-160k !!!!

Aaaaaaargh !!

reply to post by Ashtanic


Mmmmm, are you an estate agent ??

Hey, thanks for your interesting predictions, and if you're correct then renting is DEFO the way to go for a while.

Can't even get my head round a 60% current value drop !!
The majority of UK households would be in catastrophic negative equity.

I think you're correct as well about the 30s, this is heading for a depression, or at the very least a severe double dip recession.
We are doomed !!

reply to post by uk today


Thanks for the thanks!

Mmmmm, are you an estate agent ??

Yes, have been in Real Estate all my life. Sold my first property when I was 15 when I was working for a family firend who owned a R/E agency. Since then, among other things, I have worked for the last 17 years in Real Estate and Property Marketeering during which time I have facilitated over 9,000 property sales. Probably partly my fault, a very small part I might add, we are in this mess - But gotta make a crust...

Can't even get my head round a 60% current value drop !!

Sorry, my prediction is for Australia! We have the most over priced properties than anywhere else in the world. Having said that, the UK is no different excepting property has already taken a little battering already. Additionally every developed nation are in the same boat. Property should only be looked at as a place to live not invest - Look at Germany, they have it right and real property values have not seen the same bubble mania as elsewhere. They do not speculate on property.

Follow the links below to get some independant economic advice. These guys call the shots and have been for years.

The Daily Reckoning - UK

The Daily Reckoning US

The Daily Reckoning Australia

Understand also that when property prices dive, rental prices increase. It's simple really, people foreclose and need a place to live, so they either move back home to Mum and Dad or find a place to rent, only there are less places to rent due to less investors having less available properties putting upward pressure on demand driving prices up.

I think you're correct as well about the 30s, this is heading for a depression, or at the very least a severe double dip recession.

Depression, in a seriously bad way...

And really none of the above matters because once our elected officials run out of ways to spend our childrens futures the deck of cards will crumble. Remember that this started as a liquidity problem and is now a sovereign debt problem - two very different issues.

I found the following clip interesting (Has been posted on ATS previously) -



When Robert Kiyosaki talks like this I tend to believe him. And he's right in a number of ways;
* The world is digitally connected which makes any issue a global one - Not seen in the 1930's...
* The shock like we will expereince will have far reaching implications and not just a share market fall...
* Social and civil unrest the likes of which we have never witnessed before will permiate across the globe...

My thought is, holding physical gold will mean nothing when TSHTF. Further to this, whether you rent or own, when the global currencies collapse (Which it will, mark my words!), your only insurance policy will be to NOT be near those that have not sort to protect themselves and be friends with the ones that have.

When there is no money or food you will see a part of human nature that you will never want to see again...

As for someone who like the OP has gone through a relationship break I can say that moving back to my parental home is humiliation in itself, but having to move back from one side of the country to another, I was forced to leave my job or be homeless.

Here at my hometown there is no jobs and no council rentals so going private is the only option.

However private rentals, even for a studio flat is £360 per month plus council tax, gas/electric which tonight was announced are going up by 29%!

Then just to get in the flat you have to pay the usual deposit (a month up front) plus the extortionate agents fees which usually equate to £200 .

So you have to fork out £600 upfront before you can even move into a rental, and if you are on jobseekers allowence you are screwed

The pisser is that either way you are screwed because even if you get the dosh and move into a new place, if you are on a minimum wage job then with rent, fuel, council tax, food and all

You are in deficit

Unless you get a rich partner!

reply to post by EvanB


Wow, you get it cheap!

I rent with my partner and our kids.. Cost us £2400 to move in (one month in advance, one and a half months rent deposit then fees) and I pay £950 a month for a 3 bed terrace! Then on top of that, we have council tax and all the other bills too...

The irony is that I can't get a mortgage, even on £40k/year, despite having an excellent credit rating, because I have no deposit and the bank fears I may not be able to pay. But any mortgage I get is going to be at least £200 a month less than my rent for a similiar property and I've paid my rent every month for 4 years!

But anyhoo, asd to the OP. I think property is going to tank pretty soon and it is going to take at least a decade to recover. I was telling my mum in 2004-2005 that the reason I am not buying a house is because prices had to drop as they were just stupid. Now I am waiting for them to sink further while hoping I keep my job!

Originally posted by stumason
reply to post by EvanB

 

Wow, you get it cheap!

I rent with my partner and our kids.. Cost us £2400 to move in (one month in advance, one and a half months rent deposit then fees) and I pay £950 a month for a 3 bed terrace! Then on top of that, we have council tax and all the other bills too...

The irony is that I can't get a mortgage, even on £40k/year, despite having an excellent credit rating, because I have no deposit and the bank fears I may not be able to pay. But any mortgage I get is going to be at least £200 a month less than my rent for a similiar property and I've paid my rent every month for 4 years!

But anyhoo, asd to the OP. I think property is going to tank pretty soon and it is going to take at least a decade to recover. I was telling my mum in 2004-2005 that the reason I am not buying a house is because prices had to drop as they were just stupid. Now I am waiting for them to sink further while hoping I keep my job!

Its only cheap if you have the money in the first place.

If you are on jobseekers at £50 per week which barely covers your food let alone bus fare to get to interviews then that "cheap" outlay for private rentals is very much unattainable.

I hope house prices tank soon, but wonder if rents will drop alongside that. I doubt it, but hope the government will make sure they do.

reply to post by Ashtanic


Yeah I kinda guessed you were an Estate Agent, and who better to know the future most likely trends than you baby
Depressing as they are !!

However what you are predicting really comes as no suprise. The debt bubble was totally unsustainable and I curse the damn governments for their greed in pursuit of tax revenue built on borrowed, unreal money !!

Where did all this money come from that the financial institutions gave away like no tomorrow ??
The money was unreal, it didn't exist, just numbers on a screen.
Man, what a recipe for disaster !!

The total frenzy as well to buy a box for an extortionate price, mortgage yourself up to the hilt, it was all crazy as hell !!
Oh but I forgot, property ALWAYS rises...yeah right !!

The future does look scary, very bleak and scary indeed.
Guess we just need to seize the day and enjoy life, the best way we can, before the house of cards lies in a sad sorry heap on the floor.

Let more mayhem unfold on Monday, yep the markets are just going to love the USA downgrade

If you have the money, I'd say either buy a house or a boat, it'll be cheaper than renting.
A mate of mine lives on a 70 foot canal barge since splitting with his Mrs, costs him 2 k a year. No water bills, leccy bills or council tax.
My mortgage is less than half what renting would cost.
If the value of the house falls, so what? It's a roof over your head.
I think if it came to the crunch, I'd be a gypsy and have a caravan so I could keep on the move.

reply to post by EvanB


Rich partner...great advice there baby

You obviously know how difficult a relationship break-up is. Plus the trauma of most likely having to leave the town that has been your home for many years.
The only way I can stay here is to rent, and I've worked out that rent and bills would be over £1000 a month !!

I've been considering moving back to the East Coast, where I was born. Property there is LOADS cheaper than Harrogate, and the real carrot is, the house I lived in before moving here is up for sale !!

But can you go back to the past ??
Aaaaaargh !! Its a hard call for sure

Hope things improve for you, just stay positive baby yeah

reply to post by SprocketUK


Well the boat sounds pretty cool, but nah, can't see myself living on a boat.
Would consider it maybe if I had a Captain aboard, but if I was living alone I think I'd prefer to buy a house
I like the hustle and bustle of town life too much !!

Although from a financial perspective, boats are certainly an attractive proposition. Mmmm??

My dream has always been to buy a derelict church and renovate it, but I dunno ?? It would be a massive undertaking by myself, and I have no experience in property renovation.

Looks like I'll be desperately seeking builders !!

Buy your ordination from the states, then you can start a church, and someone else will pay you to live there! Probably get tax breaks, too!

Good luck anyhow. Hope things look up for ya.