Deep Solar Minimum

Originally posted by nixie_nox
So let me get this straight. We don't know enough about the Earth's climate cycle to realize if the Earth is really experiencing GW or not, But we know enough about the Sun's cycle, and its affect on Earth, to know if it is affecting climate change.

So I guess to you "deny ignorance" means to deny all evidence and instead make your own conclusion based on no evidence at all?

There had been a warming trend until a few years back, and it coincided with high solar activity. Now the trend is in the oposite direction and we seem to be going towards a cooling cycle, unless the Sun's activity picks up again...

BTW, of course that there are other natural factors whch affect the climate on Earth, such as.

CLIMATE SCIENCE
The earth's magnetic field impacts climate: Danish study

by Staff Writers
Copenhagen (AFP) Jan 12, 2009
The earth's climate has been significantly affected by the planet's magnetic field, according to a Danish study published Monday that could challenge the notion that human emissions are responsible for global warming.
"Our results show a strong correlation between the strength of the earth's magnetic field and the amount of precipitation in the tropics," one of the two Danish geophysicists behind the study, Mads Faurschou Knudsen of the geology department at Aarhus University in western Denmark, told the Videnskab journal.

He and his colleague Peter Riisager, of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), compared a reconstruction of the prehistoric magnetic field 5,000 years ago based on data drawn from stalagmites and stalactites found in China and Oman.

The results of the study, which has also been published in US scientific journal Geology, lend support to a controversial theory published a decade ago by Danish astrophysicist Henrik Svensmark, who claimed the climate was highly influenced by galactic cosmic ray (GCR) particles penetrating the earth's atmosphere.

www.terradaily.com...

Geology; January 2009; v. 37; no. 1; p. 71-74; DOI: 10.1130/G25238A.1
© 2009 Geological Society of America



Is there a link between Earth's magnetic field and low-latitude precipitation?
Mads Faurschou Knudsen1,2,3 and Peter Riisager4
1 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PR, UK
2 Department of Geography and Geology, University of Copenhagen, Øster Voldgade 10, 1350 Copenhagen, Denmark
3 Department of Earth Sciences, University of Aarhus, Hoegh-Guldbergs Gade 2, 8000 Aarhus, Denmark
4 Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Øster Voldgade 10, 1350 Copenhagen, Denmark

Some studies indicate that the solar modulation of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) particles has profound consequences for Earth's climate system. A corollary of the GCR-climate theory involves a link between Earth's magnetic field and climate, since the geomagnetic field also modulates the GCR flux reaching Earth's atmosphere. In this study, we explore this potential geomagnetic-climate link by comparing a new reconstruction of the Holocene geomagnetic dipole moment with high-resolution speleothem data from China and Oman. The speleothem 18O data represent proxy records for past precipitation in low-latitude regions, which is a climate parameter that is likely to have been sensitive to variations in the GCR flux modulated by the dipole moment. Intriguingly, we observe a relatively good correlation between the high-resolution speleothem 18O records and the dipole moment, suggesting that Earth's magnetic field to some degree influenced low-latitude precipitation in the past. In addition to supporting the notion that variations in the geomagnetic field may have influenced Earth's climate in the past, our study also provides some degree of support for the controversial link between GCR particles, cloud formation, and climate.

geology.geoscienceworld.org...

Science News

Earth's Magnetic Field Reversals Illuminated By Lava Flows Study

ScienceDaily (Sep. 26, 2008) — Earth's north magnetic pole is shifting and weakening. Ancient lava flows are guiding a better understanding of what generates and controls the Earth's magnetic field – and what may drive it to occasionally reverse direction.

The main magnetic field, generated by turbulent currents within the deep mass of molten iron of the Earth's outer core, periodically flips its direction, such that a compass needle would point south rather than north. Such polarity reversals have occurred hundreds of times at irregular intervals throughout the planet's history – most recently about 780,000 years ago – but scientists are still trying to understand how and why.

www.sciencedaily.com...



[edit on 2-4-2009 by ElectricUniverse]

Right you are Electric! We could very well see a LIA coming our way or even something worse like an BIA!

Anyway, they say that we are nearing the end of the planets' warm cycle and now entering a longer much colder cycle. Which of course will bring cold weather all across the globe, and supposedly the globe will become a snow ball. All it really takes is for the Arctic ice to melt, bring that ice cold fresh water down from the north and mix in with the warm salt water down south, and there you go you have slowed down the Ocean Heat Belt that circluates all over. If that slows down, you better make your way down to the equator.

I've been checking spaceweather.com for a while to see how the sun is acting up, and it's been quiet for quite some time now. There's still sunspots left over from the old cycle 23.

Dwayne Brown
Headquarters, Washington
202-358-1726
[email protected]

DC Agle
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
818-393-9011
[email protected]
Sept. 23, 2008 RELEASE : 08-241 Ulysses Reveals Global Solar Wind Plasma Output At 50-Year Low WASHINGTON -- Data from the Ulysses spacecraft, a joint NASA-European Space Agency mission, show the sun has reduced its output of solar wind to the lowest levels since accurate readings became available. The sun's current state could reduce the natural shielding that envelops our solar system.

"The sun's million mile-per-hour solar wind inflates a protective bubble, or heliosphere, around the solar system. It influences how things work here on Earth and even out at the boundary of our solar system where it meets the galaxy," said Dave McComas, Ulysses' solar wind instrument principal investigator and senior executive director at the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio. "Ulysses data indicate the solar wind's global pressure is the lowest we have seen since the beginning of the space age."

www.nasa.gov...

Originally posted by Shrukin89
All it really takes is for the Arctic ice to melt, bring that ice cold fresh water down from the north and mix in with the warm salt water down south, and there you go you have slowed down the Ocean Heat Belt that circluates all over. If that slows down, you better make your way down to the equator.

I've been checking spaceweather.com for a while to see how the sun is acting up, and it's been quiet for quite some time now. There's still sunspots left over from the old cycle 23.

That would have only occurred if the warming cycle had continued. Now that the Sun's activity has been at the lowest seen for over a century at least the Arctic, and Antarctic will slowly but surely grow again, like they have done hundreds of times if not more throughout the history of Earth. That is unless the Sun's activiy picks up again.

There is something outside from the Solar System that is affecting our Solar System, and causing the changes in the Sun, on Earth itself, and other planets and their magnetic fields.

With a lower activity on the Sun this is an indication to another LIA.

IMO, I think this could very possibly be the calm before the storm, and we might see a flare up of the Sun. I could be wrong and instead we might see a LIA if the Sun's activity continues like this.



[edit on 2-4-2009 by ElectricUniverse]

Originally posted by ElectricUniverse
This means, if the Sun continues at the record low activity that it has been going, that the oceans will soon enough deplete the extra heat they had stored from the Solar increased actiity we enjoyed for many years, and Earth could very well usher into a new LIA, or worse, unless the Sun's activity picks up.

There are going to be more extremes, both heat and cold wheather events, until there is not enough heat stored in the oceans to keep the northern hemisphere warm, and then, if the Sun's activity continues at the crawling pace it is going, winter will set in for much longer periods, and summers will be colder, and colder each year until the Sun's activity picks up, or if it continues at the crawling pace it is now, a new LIA will set in, and possibly an Ice Age if the activity continues to be low longer.

There is also the possibility that this is the calm before the storm. Let's just hope that neither scenario occurs, but people need to be aware of this, and start preparing, since we don't know when the Sun's activity will pick up again.

Here is an image of how Earth's heat content in the oceans have been decreasing because of the slowing down of the Sun's activity.


The graph, and an explanation of the graph can be found in the following link.

wattsupwiththat.com...

At least one good thing might come of this, as the oceans cool it means that CO2 solubility in seawater/oceans will increase, so perhaps the Global Warming camp will stop now demanding for the carbon credit scam.

Or is it too late already and the rich will continue to get rich, at the expense of the taxpayers, even as the Earth continues to get colder?


science.nasa.gov
(visit the link for the full news article)


[edit on 2-4-2009 by ElectricUniverse]

A low in solar activity does pick up. they forecast that in about 3 years we will have a solar peak like we've never seen in recorded history.

-rrr

Here is one of the many facts, and evidence which points to the changes happening on the Solar System, which also affects Climate Change, possibly being caused by something from outside the Solar System which we are encountering.

11.19.2008
Discovered: Cosmic Rays from a Mysterious, Nearby Object

Nov. 19, 2008: An international team of researchers has discovered a puzzling surplus of high-energy electrons bombarding Earth from space. The source of these cosmic rays is unknown, but it must be close to the solar system and it could be made of dark matter. Their results are being reported in the Nov. 20th issue of the journal Nature.

"This is a big discovery," says co-author John Wefel of Louisiana State University. "It's the first time we've seen a discrete source of accelerated cosmic rays standing out from the general galactic background."

Right: An artist's concept of cosmic rays hitting Earth's upper atmosphere. Credit: Simon Swordy, University of Chicago. [Larger image]

Galactic cosmic rays are subatomic particles accelerated to almost light speed by distant supernova explosions and other violent events. They swarm through the Milky Way, forming a haze of high energy particles that enter the solar system from all directions. Cosmic rays consist mostly of protons and heavier atomic nuclei with a dash of electrons and photons spicing the mix.

science.nasa.gov...

This whole quiet sun deal is kinda freaking me out a lil bit.
Yeah, I did go and see the movie "Knowing" with all of it's parallels(sorry if that spoils anything for anyone) and already having known about the minimal solar activity and all, the coincidences are interesting to me.

The thing that worries me is that I read somewhere that the strength of the magnetosphere is directly connected to sunspot activity.
With the reduction in solar activity, we now have a gape in the magnetosphere 4 times the size of the earth which is quite a crazy thought.
Then they're all "oh yeah, that hole will allow plasma to load up the magnetosphere and then..."...then what?!

I'm hanging on the edge of my seat here...with all of the paranoia of knowing that on a global level, people strongly believe and it is becoming more evident as time goes by that we are in the midst of some huge changes both natural and unnatural...and then there's the whole 2012 deal which does happen to coincide with some mysterious and unknown outcomes due to this galactic alignment which hasn't been seen for thousands of years.

So, on one hand, people evidently survived the last long count, so there's no reason to presume they won't survive this one. This alone takes a load off which is nice, but still...

I think it's some pretty bad timing to follow up a magnetospherically weakening period with huge CMEs jettisoning who knows how much plasma into the gaping hole in the magnetosphere. It just doesn't sound like a good time to be sunbathing if you ask me...at the very least.

At any rate, I think the canceling effect the minimal activity is having on global warming is pretty trick.

Science is so cool, sometimes. Totally blows me away how much we've learned in just the last few years about all of this.
Just when we think we know what's up, we get a curve ball.

Originally posted by 4N6310
.......
So, on one hand, people evidently survived the last long count, so there's no reason to presume they won't survive this one. This alone takes a load off which is nice, but still...

I think it's some pretty bad timing to follow up a magnetospherically weakening period with huge CMEs jettisoning who knows how much plasma into the gaping hole in the magnetosphere. It just doesn't sound like a good time to be sunbathing if you ask me...at the very least.

At any rate, I think the canceling effect the minimal activity is having on global warming is pretty trick.

Science is so cool, sometimes. Totally blows me away how much we've learned in just the last few years about all of this.
Just when we think we know what's up, we get a curve ball.

I don't believe that that movie showing at this time was a coincidence, however, the events that are to come won't be exactly like in that movie.

Mankind will survive no-matter what, including adult people, but there will be a lot of suffering, and people will have to make drastic changes just to survive, such as living in underground homes for a while.

I wish none of this would happen, but it will.

This is more than just entering a new region of the Universe with more charged particles, or an area of hotter gas, and plasma fields.

The ancient people, and cultures of the world left messages to mankind of similar changes in the past, and of the star, or planet that shows up during those changes.

The universe is not just affected by order, chaos shows it's face from time to time, which is a natural part of this universe, and the multiverses, and which affects the life on planets such as Earth.




[edit on 2-4-2009 by ElectricUniverse]

I keep hearing some people claim that we would have found such a large body already if it existed, but the fact is that we keep finding things about the Universe, and the multiverses which the scientific academia thought did not to exist, or could not occur.

The following is another example of something which science cannot explain yet.

Hubble Finds a Mystery Object
Don't get the idea that we've found every kind of astronomical object there is in the universe. In a paper to appear in the Astrophysical Journal, astronomers working on the Supernova Cosmology Project report finding a new kind of something that they cannot make any sense of.

The project used the Hubble Space Telescope to monitor very distant galaxy clusters for supernovae. On February 21, 2006, in the direction of a far-away cluster in Bootes named CL 1432.5+3332.8 (redshift 1.112, light travel time 8.2 billion years), Hubble began seeing something brighten. It continued brightening for about 100 days and peaked at 21st magnitude in two near-infrared colors. It then faded away over a similar timescale, until nothing was left in view down to 26th magnitude. The object brightened and faded by a factor of at least 120, maybe more.


The mystery object did not behave like any known kind of supernova. It is not even in any detectable galaxy. "The shape of the light curve is inconsistent with microlensing," say the researchers. They recorded three spectra of it — and its spectrum, they write, "in addition to being inconsistent with all known supernova types, is not matched to any spectrum in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey database" of vast numbers of objects. "We suggest that the transient may be one of a new class."

www.skyandtelescope.com...




[edit on 2-4-2009 by ElectricUniverse]

There is some evidence that the Solar wind, or high intensity sunspots have caused mass extinctions in the past.

SOLAR WINDS AS A POSSIBLE CAUSE OF THE PERMIAN-TRIASSIC BOUNDARY EXTINCTION
HEYDARI, Ezat, Department of Physics, Atmospheric, and General Sciences, Jackson State Univ, 1400 J. R. Lynch Street, Jackson, MS 39217, [email protected], HASSANZADEH, Jamshid, Department of Geology, Univ of Tehran, Tehran, Iran, and GHAZI, A. Mohamad, Department of Geology, Georgia State Univ, Atlanta, GA 30303
The Earth nearly died at the Permian and Triassic (P-T) boundary (251 Ma). Several explanations have been suggested, but none has been universally accepted. The kill mechanism must simultaneously explain the following characteristics of the P-T boundary mass extinction: (1) mass mortality on land and in sea, (2) geochemical changes in ocean and atmosphere, (3) the occurrence of C60 in P-T boundary strata, (4) the presence helium with extraterrestrial isotopic compositions, and (5) a rapid extinction period.

The severity of the P-T boundary mass extinction suggests that the agent of this mass mortality was so powerful that dominated Earth’s internal process. Such mechanisms are most likely of extraterrestrial origin. The bolide impact mechanism of the extinction has been considered, but the supporting evidence (shocked quartz, spherules, impact ejecta, and major Ir anomaly) are lacking. Solar winds offer a viable kill mechanism, one that accounts for all of the P-T boundary characteristics. The Sun contains 98% of the mass of our solar system, with coronal temperatures of over one million K. Nearly 1.3 million earths can fit inside the Sun. Solar winds originate from the Sun’s corona, compose primarily of hydrogen and helium, travel at a speed of 400-800 km/s, contain weak magnetic field, and carry massive electrical charge. Earth’s magnetic field prevents ordinary solar winds to reach the Earth’s surface. Powerful and less frequent solar winds, however, can easily disrupt Earth’s magnetosphere and destroy the protective ozone layer, causing the ultraviolet rays, proton and alpha particles to bombard Earth’s surface. Such an event can result in a mass mortality of the magnitude that occurred at the P-T boundary. This bombardment leaves clues on the earth surface and can be looked for.

Stratigraphic and geochemical characteristics of P-T boundary strata in Abadeh region in Iran are interpreted in light of the solar wind extinction mechanism.

gsa.confex.com...

More, and more scientists from around the world are finding out that the Sun, is one of the major factors affecting Earth's climate, even the ongoing Climate Change.

Evidence for Climate Variations Induced by the Solar Cycle
William Bruckman1, Elio Ramos2
Department of Physics and Electronics1 and Department of Mathematics2
University of Puerto Rico at Humacao
CUH Station
100 Route 908
Humacao PR 00791-4300
Abstract
We argue that the solar activity cycle induce periodic variations in rain-snow precipitation and sea-air temperatures, that cause mean sea level oscillations. We present observational evidence in favor of the above hypothesis, starting with a brief historical background of studies of solar cycle influence on climate.

The evidence indicate that the Solar and Cosmic rays cycles are correlated with changes in temperature and precipitation. We analyzed data for the monthly mean sea level at San Juan and Magueyes Island in Puerto Rico, seeking correlations between sea level fluctuations and solar, cosmic rays and temperature cycles. Our analysis suggest that a solar activity cycle minimum (cosmic ray intensity maximum) correlates with lower than average temperatures and mean sea levels.

We discussed, as a posible explanation of the above correlations, that the solar and cosmic rays cycles could cause larger than average accumulation of continental water and snow with lower temperatures
contracting the oceans, thus implying lower mean sea levels. If this is the case, we predict that lower than average temperatures and mean sea levels will occur around the year 2009,with a delay of about 2 year after the 2007 solar activity minimum.
...........................
Evidence of Correlation Between Sea Level Fluctuations and the Solar Cycle Data from the monthly mean sea levels at San Juan (18o27'N, 66o05'W) and Magueyes Island (17o58'N 67o03'W) Puerto Rico where analyzed seeking correlations between sea level fluctuations and
the well known sunspot cycle.

The monthly mean sunspot data was obtained from the NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration) in the period between 1955 and 2002. The data was smoothed by taking the average of two adjacent 12-month running means of monthly means. The sea level data was obtained from GLOSS (Global Sea Level Observing System) and consisted of the monthly means of sea levels for the two locations mentioned above. The San Juan data contains 39 years from 1962 to 2001 and the Magueyes data contains 46 years from 1955 to 2001. Besides some gaps in the San Juan time series, between 1974 and 1979 and between 1988 and 1990, both data sets are remarkably similar in the measurements levels and the observed fluctuations.

mate.uprh.edu...



[edit on 3-4-2009 by ElectricUniverse]

Yes, instead of coming on these topics with a biased view and calling people with alternate theories stupid, who actually have research to back them up, perhaps you could leave your ego at the door and inform your mind a little, read this research and come to your own conclusions.

You're having man made global warming shoved down your throat so you will pay taxes. They can't tax you because the sun is being naughty, so they dont tell you about it.

Inform your own mind, actually read the stuff in this thread, click the links and form your own opinion. Mindlessly repeating what you hear on the news is lazy and makes the situation for people thinking for themselves, and debating, virtually unwinnable because of the herd mentality blocking out rational voices.

[edit on 3-4-2009 by Lazyninja]

Originally posted by ElectricUniverse

Exactly what evidence do you have to make your claim that a period of low activity in the Sun will not cause another LIA?

Yes, it is true that there were already low temperatures before the Maunder Minimum, but that doesn't mean the sun's activity before the Maunder minimum was high.

The Maunder Minimum did not occur until 300 years into the LIA. Any similar solar minimum occurring now will be starting at a point where we have very high average temps rather than low ones and as already pointed out, heat contained in the oceans alone would help counter much of the effect of reduced solar output. Increased amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere now would also help counter the effects. Some pollution may help enhance the effects though.

It's worth noting that some parts of the N Hemisphere (incl much of Asia) have just experienced a record hot winter and even half of the USA had above average temperatures.

It will be interesting to see how long the minimum lasts and what its effects will be. But suggesting similar conditions to the last 17th century is scaremongering just as bad as Gore and those who say rising sea levels will swamp NYC in a few years time.

IMO a significant solar minimum will likely see average conditions around the world return to something similar to what they were in the 1970s. That's a prediction I don;t think it will cause any significant problems at all, but will turn people away from the idea of AGW leading to more serious problems once solar activity increrases again and we move into another warming period.

Originally posted by Essan

The Maunder Minimum did not occur until 300 years into the LIA. Any similar solar minimum occurring now will be starting at a point where we have very high average temps rather than low ones and as already pointed out, heat contained in the oceans alone would help counter much of the effect of reduced solar output.

Yes, but that doesn't mean that before the maunder minimum the Sun was in high activity during the LIA...

Perhaps it will serve you well to actually read the excerpts, and the info I gave, the oceans have been losing much of their extra-heat stored throughout the years that there was high Solar activity, and not only is the Solar Cycle 24 late, but the fact is that the activity of the Sun has decreased to lows not seen at least for a century or more, which you obviously keep ignoring, as you apaprently try to claim this is normal. This is not normal.

Originally posted by Essan
Increased amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere now would also help counter the effects.

It won't, there is no fact that proves the claim that CO2 causes the warming claimed by the Global Warming followers, there are only claims and computer models. The observational data tells a different story.

Originally posted by Essan
It's worth noting that some parts of the N Hemisphere (incl much of Asia) have just experienced a record hot winter and even half of the USA had above average temperatures.

It is worth of notice also that countries have been experiencing the worse winters in years, and many in decades, so don't dismiss one fact and try to exagerate another.

Originally posted by Essan
It will be interesting to see how long the minimum lasts and what its effects will be. But suggesting similar conditions to the last 17th century is scaremongering just as bad as Gore and those who say rising sea levels will swamp NYC in a few years time.

IMO a significant solar minimum will likely see average conditions around the world return to something similar to what they were in the 1970s. That's a prediction

I don;t think it will cause any significant problems at all, but will turn people away from the idea of AGW leading to more serious problems once solar activity increrases again and we move into another warming period.

Your prediction is not based on any scientific fact. It is not scaremongering to show facts, what the historical record tells us, and what real scientists are telling us.

It is foolish to dismiss the unusual low level of activity of the Sun, and the absence of the appearance of cycle 24....

This is not normal in the least, and any change in the Sun's activity affects the climate on Earth whether you want to admit it or not.


[edit on 3-4-2009 by ElectricUniverse]

reply to post by Essan


"It's worth noting that some parts of the N Hemisphere (incl much of Asia) have just experienced a record hot winter"

i live in asia, last year from july/august to november/december which supposed to be the wet season, was dry, only few rains. now january - april 2009 its supposed to be summer, but were having more rainfall than usual.

Originally posted by JohnnyR
reply to post by MikeboydUS

 

Could less sun spots mean that the ones that do appear produce more powerful flares? Or maybe this is a better question; Does sunspot frequency have any bearing on how powerful sun flares are?

I am asking everyones opinion, but i guess what im getting at is, maybe there will be fewer sun spots releasing fewer flares, but maybe the flares that are released will be stronger.

If we have less sunspots there will be less flares. The less solar activity means less flares and weaker flares.

I asked my astronomy professor about the deep minimum last night and basically what is happening is the sun's energy output is decreasing. He said astronomers started noticing problems as far back as 2006.

So I wouldn't worry about powerful flares.

Originally posted by 180attoseconds

"It's worth noting that some parts of the N Hemisphere (incl much of Asia) have just experienced a record hot winter"

i live in asia, last year from july/august to november/december which supposed to be the wet season, was dry, only few rains. now january - april 2009 its supposed to be summer, but were having more rainfall than usual.

And other parts of the world throughout the last 3 years or so have been experiencing record colds/winters, including Asia...

This is Climate Change, the oceans still have some of that extra heat that they had been storing during the times that we enjoyed high Solar activity in the late 20th century, and at the beginning of the 21st century until 3-5 years ago or so But if the Solar activity does not pick up, eventually the oceans will release all their stored heat, and we will encounter a Little Ice Age.



[edit on 3-4-2009 by ElectricUniverse]