The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

European debt crisis: Portugal to unveil 'crisis tax' to cut deficit
www.upi.com

LISBON, Portugal, May 13 (UPI) -- Portugal is to soon join the European countries instituting austerity measures in the fight against the eurozone debt crisis.

Several countries are facing severe deficits as debt obligations come due. The worst-affected are the so-called PIIGS -- Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. Problems in the countries have caused confidence the euro to fall, weakening the economic position of many European countries.

Richer countries, many of which saw the problems developing and took steps years ago to forestall them, are being looked to to help their economy-challenged brethren. Before they write checks in rescue, however, they are demanding the debt-ridden countries take strong steps to guarantee they are serious about addressing the problem.

[edit on 5/13/2010 by Hx3_1963]

Have you ever been on a roller-coaster? I feel like a lot of us are going through a process very similar to that. Bear with me on this one, I hope it makes sense:

What I mean is this... say you are in the roller coaster and it is climbing the first really big hill. Most of us in this thread know what the outcome will be, it will fall, be scary, but then after all that drama everything will be ok and you will have a bit of an adrenaline rush.

Okay, now imagine that every person on the roller coaster is on it for the very first time. Nobody on this roller coaster has ever ridden a large roller coaster before. Some people have researched roller coasters, they know what a roller coaster is all about (although never rode one) while others have maybe heard of a roller coaster but have no clue how it works or what it is all about.

Now position the people that have researched a roller coaster and know what to expect in the front cars, the others are in the back.

Now the coaster is climbing that hill. The ones that know what a roller coaster is all about buckle up and prepare for that drop. The ones in the back are chatting about American Idol and oblivious to what is happening. The coaster reaches the apex, and time stands still for a moment. The ones that know what is going on are the ones in the front cars. These people brace themselves as they hit the apex. Those that are oblivious are still chatting away in the back, not buckled and not prepared for anything.

The front cars pass the apex, now the people in those cars can see the drop but since the whole chain of cars has not passed 50% over the top, the acceleration has not begun. If you have ever been in the front car of a large coaster before, you know what I am talking about. You just hang there looking straight down.

You can hear the people in the back cars laughing and joking. They are pointing at cars in the parking lot. They are not buckled in because for them the thing will rise forever. No worries, it is a stable track! The coaster has gone up before, it has plateaued before, and it has had little dips before... never needed a seatbelt before so why bother? Those roller coasters which killed so many of your great-grandparents and ancestors of the past were inferior to this HUGE coaster; it's all good! You hear them back there laughing and chatting.. you get frustrated and worried, because you know what is coming very soon.

What happens next? Well, the midpoint of the train of cars passes the apex. Now the coaster zooms down the hill. Those in the front hang on, and are buckled in. Many of those in the back that were oblivious to the whole thing are whipped out of their car and go plunging to death.

I know this whole thing seems a bit abstract, but it seems to me that the analogy is pretty good for what a lot of us are experiencing right now. Not a perfect analogy, but the first thing that came to mind. There are those of us who know history, know depressions, know revolutions. We have studied these things either in universities or on our own. Some even subscribe to cycle theories (not just economic, but social, political, etc) and are prepared for the different phases this roller coaster will go through. We see the majority are not prepared however, and they are in the back cars. We told them to buckle up, but they never experienced a real big coaster drop so they don't listen. It is frustrating, but that is the way it is.

The majority of people will NOT think about revolution until their way of life is dramatically impacted. Governments will continue to grow, become corrupt, and abuse it's people until the tipping point. Nobody in this dynamic will be truly proactive. There are some that will know the outcome, and others that will be oblivious.

Don't get frustrated, whether CNBC cheerleaders fart rainbows or not the roller coaster is going to do what it does. Sure, more could be prepared, but most will not listen. According to some, a roller coaster like this may only come along every 200 to 250 years. It is those in the middle cars that we may be able to convince to buckle up, that is where this whole experience is "won" or "lost" by the people. If we can keep the majority of folks in this coaster as it does its thing, we may be able to make some big changes during the adrenaline rush afterward.

I hope this makes sense. I've only had minimal coffee today so it may be a bunch of garrble.

reply to post by nydsdan
Sweet!

I've been in both the Front & End seats on the Magnum at Ceder Point...

...It is quite a different experience seeing both scenarios play out...

Lack of Coffee didn't hurt to much this time!

The Selling Out Of Germany
www.zerohedge.com...

In some ways it’s a battle of the politicians against the markets. That’s how I do see it. But I’m determined to win this battle.
- Angela Merkel

Gold Is Money, and Nothing Else.
- JP Morgan, testifying under oath to Congress before the Pujo Commission, 1913

The Selling Out of Germany

I feel very bad for the German people. Not only do I feel bad for them but I can empathize. I too am being forced to sit back and watch this comedy of errors as a corrupt, inept and increasingly dangerous class of elitist political and financial oligarchs destroys my nation. On Sunday night an ex-client that I have remained in contact with since my days at Bernstein sent me an email with a simple question: “What do you think of the bailout.” I didn’t have time to answer it during trading Monday but when I finally sat down I wrote the following.

Basically, it’s a total joke as is everything else the politicians have done. No one and nothing is allowed to fail and this relates to the fact that the global monetary and financial system is a complete house of cards. It’s insanely bullish for gold. If Germans rioted they would be in the streets today. They totally got sold out beyond belief. But it doesn’t seem to be in their nature to riot so rather I think they will dump their Euros and buy gold. That’s how Germans riot. With every passing day and every new bailout of the global banks (which is all this is, all TARP was, and all everything has been) more and more people awaken to the fact it’s all a total scam. This will just accelerate the process of dumping the paper currencies we use today in favor of hard assets as this system is obviously coming down. A lot of people keep asking, is this the same as post Bear Stearns? I mean here is the biggest difference in my mind. Back then people believed in the system, the market and what we have going generally. Not now. Not anymore. Thousands more people every day figure out it’s rigged and it’s a ponzi scheme.

[edit on 5/13/2010 by Hx3_1963]

Originally posted by marg6043
reply to post by Vitchilo

 

Here more on the slow down fall of Americas sovereignty, the entire world should raise up and fight the corrupted governments that are raping their nations from their wealth.

+ 1

They are going to crash all the major curencies and then introduce the amro and it will be 100% electronic and will come with a personal carbon tax bill.

The alternative will be riots then next day and lots of people will losse money but we also get to keep what we have without paying the debt off and no more taxes to give those magotts that have pulled this trick off.

i'm all for option two and by the time we sezie the welath from the prince charles of this world then we will all be better off.

The media will go into over drive telling us how we all need our politicians and bankers and they should be hung too because they have been allowed to tell lies for the past 50 years and it's time they paid up.

Are you men or mice

reply to post by Hx3_1963


Haha, yes the Magnum. It is like most people have only been on the Mine Ride. Some hear stories about the Blue Streak and the Gemini, but never rode either. Now they are on the Top Thrill Dragster and have no clue what to expect. Please make sure your seatbelt is fastened tightly and the safety bar is down all the way. Please sit upright, facing forward and keep your arms and legs inside the car at all times and thank you for riding at Cedar Point.

Click click click click click click......every day we go another notch up this hill. Last Thursday was just a little glitch, a slip of the chain if you will, and we are still going up.

finviz.com...

2 hours and 15 minutes still to make it above 1.26

And down go the US Markets...

Dow Jones Industrial Average 10,782.95 4:04PM EDT Down 113.96 (1.05%)

S&P 500 INDEX,RTH 1,157.43 4:06PM EDT Down 14.24 (1.22%)

NASDAQ Composite 2,394.36 4:07PM EDT Down 30.66 (1.26%)

EUR/USD 1.2533

GBP/USD 1.4615

[edit on 5/13/2010 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by GreenBicMan


GBM, Hope you didn't have alot riding on 1.26. I think that the rumours are against you in this trade. The next support looks to be around 1.15. One more shred of bad news and down the EUR goes. I thought the Volcker statement about the dimise of the EUR would have done more damage

Edit:sp

[edit on 13-5-2010 by jacksmoke]

reply to post by Vitchilo


Yes they probably will if they give their sovereignty to the IMF.

Still the US deficit is growing and growing like a runaway train.

reply to post by Hx3_1963


That is bull crap, the deficit of the nations in question are too big to be help anyway, Look at our own debt that one will never be pay back.

Just more scams to keep the appearances.

reply to post by LieBuster


I been waiting for that to come into light, the whole thing seems to die down but with all the problems globally perhaps it will come back to hunt us all.

carry trade over with.....ok

Some commentators are talking a euro at par to the dollar. I assure you that would be the end of the union and the beginning of the attack on the dollar that is certain to come.
If you have the emergence of national European currencies as a result of the failure of the union, the mirror image strength of the dollar would instantaneously disappear. Credit Default Swaps would turn its vengeance on the dollar. The Drachma would be incinerated. The Swiss and DM would be the stronger units.
If the EU fails so does the USDX. With no mirror image to hold up the dollar artificially the US dollar will fall faster than Greece’s credit.

www.jsmineset.com...

Jim's been spot on with everything up to this point, I can see how this could quite easily transpire. The US has been using other fiat currencies to push down so it doesn't drown. The emergence of several/one strong or stronger currencies as the result of a break up would immediately push the dollar under them.

reply to post by jacksmoke


I have 0 on this trade.

1.26 IMO is the tipping point though.


If we hold under these levels for a few days I feel that the chances of parity are 50/50 now.

reply to post by jacksmoke


finviz.com...


Since 2008 IMO we have been in a descending wedge formation. It looks like we will break this support and IMO the 2005 support will not hold.

That will then take us back to 2000-2001 I believe when we were at 1.00

You guys pay no attention to this?

The Los Angeles City Council overwhelmingly approved a boycott of Arizona-based businesses and governments Wednesday unless the state repeals a new law giving police the power to question a detainee's immigration status.

Several other California cities, including San Francisco and Oakland, have already adopted resolutions requesting city departments to not sign any new contracts with Arizona companies.

www.cnn.com...


Hmmm...

Inner sanctions.

Could lead to worse...




[edit on 13-5-2010 by DangerDeath]

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by jacksmoke

 

finviz.com...


Since 2008 IMO we have been in a descending wedge formation. It looks like we will break this support and IMO the 2005 support will not hold.

That will then take us back to 2000-2001 I believe when we were at 1.00

Either that or a "W" with a nice little bull trap. If this the case the next leg is up. I don't have any skin in this game so optimism won't hurt

reply to post by DangerDeath


We should just vote California out of the union and give them to Mexico after all they are a thorn in the pockets of every tax payer in the nation that have to pay for their social programs through federal aid.

I'm trying to set up my new computer but it won't work because of BIOS problems... DAMN.

Anyway.

France threatened Germany with leaving the euro if they didn't agree to pay the bailout! And the plot thickens!

Linky

"French President Nicolas Sarkozy threatened to pull his country out of the euro currency group to force Germany to help Greece with its debt crisis, El Pais newspaper reported Friday, quoting Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero."

The first thing that led to dismembering of Yugoslavia was Milosevic "action" of boycotting Slovenian products in Serbia (end of eighties). It was "in" not to buy Slovenian wash-machines and cosmetics, etc. Next thing, since the confidence between republics was ruined, was money grab from federal reserves and accusations of theft between republics. The main rift happened within the Army, which rendered it impotent and passive, and it started to split on the national basis. But the truth is, Slovenians were the first to initiate sending their recruits to serve the Army only in Slovenia and to make their own military centers for reserve officers (usually recruits with faculty education, who would get rank of junior sergeants as common, non professional soldiers, kind of "internship").

This division on the principle of belonging to republics practically destroyed the federation.

So, if you ask me, this is very indicative, but may at first escape peoples attention. Despite the fact that it is a very unusual behavior, very much like the one that preceded Civil war 150 years ago.