An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

reply to post by Nyiah


I'm actually feeling pretty calm. No ear ringing in several days.

It seems everyone around me is starting to get panicky a little bit, with even schools closing.

Here: www.wxyz.com...

Just checking in. I'm fine tonight, but last night I wasn't. Have had a couple of nights of very disturbed sleep and last night I felt like I had a flu bug or something, but it has come to nothing, thank god. I can hardly believe that tomorrow is December 21st, and I have no bad feelings about it...I never did. If anything happens, I strongly suspect it will be manufactured, unless it's a mag 9 or 10 somewhere, of course. I'm not expecting annihilation, or Armageddon, or any other damn thing. I hope those aren't my famous last words...

Anyhow...joints still aching, but it's not so cold, but we're about to get hammered here with 60 mile an hour winds, possible coastal flooding and possibly snow as well, so I'm wondering if there is a weather issue here...I usually feel the deep low systems moving in.

As for earthquakes...I'm picking up on nothing, which I hope is a very good thing. I'm not getting names, places, words, nothing, so I don't know what to think. I think I'm grateful actually.

Hope everyone has a stress free weekend, and stay safe...I will get to updating the online diary, I promise....this weekend...

Here's something a little bit uplifting in the music department.....

We've both been feeling pretty good!

Ear ringing off & on today, especially right now, but nothing else.
Older cat has been picking on young cat the last few days.
But all in all, it's been nice & calm around here for a change!
Oldest daughter has been very pleasant. Go figure!

There should be an ap......every.....NOPE not going to say that!!!!
WOQ

Still feel great, no nothing really. No pressure, emotions are really calm (maybe curious a bit is all), and kids and cat all good as well.

But I did just have the loudest, deepest, longest ear ringing I have ever experienced in my right ear. Lasted almost a solid 2 minutes, and I could barely hear anything over it.

Thought it worth mentioning.

Peace to all of you

Hi everyone,

as you might imagine I was a bit busy on and around Dec 21 with some mod duties ( ) but now it's quietened down again it's good to be able to relax a bit, catch up and add a few comments.

Great to see you have all been adding your observations and notes. As generally expected among us here, nothing of any special significance happened on Dec 21. In the quakes dept, the biggest was a mag 6.8 near Vanuatu, but as it was a little over 200km deep the effects were not great. The locals are quite used to such shaking anyway so they probably weren't too bothered by it. I've checked some news sources and there were no reports of damage or casualties. In fact, USGS is quoted as saying:

There were no immediate reports of damage or casualties following the earthquake, but the USGS estimated some 1,000 people on nearby islands may have perceived moderate shaking. The agency said as many as 145,000 others may have felt light shaking, according to computer models which showed serious damage or casualties are unlikely.

From wireupdate [dot] com.

I'm mentioning the above for two reasons. The first is to reiterate something I mentioned quite a while back -- namely that with quakes, it's not just the magnitude that matters, it's the location. And (all other things being equal), with "location" there are two primary aspects: the epicenter and the hypocenter. I'm sure you're all familiar with "epicenter" -- the location on the earth's surface directly above where the quake happens. The hypocenter, however, is also very important because it's the true location of the quake, meaning its latitude and longitude and its location (depth) within the earth.

A magnitude 6.8 quake at a depth of (say) 10 km is far more serious than one with exactly the same epicenter, but with a hypocenter 200km down. Generally speaking, the deeper the quake, the less its effects are felt at the surface. Putting it simply, it's because the energy released has a greater distance of rock to travel through and so it gets better dissipated before it reaches the surface.

Remember that quake energy radiates in all directions. Not always equally -- as that depends on the type of faulting that occurs -- but it doesn't just go "up" towards the surface. It spreads out all around, and the way it does can be measured by the various seismos and allow seismologists to work out what type of quake it was and how damaging it may be.

But never mind all the technicalities. The general rule of thumb is: shallow quake -- bad. Deeper quake -- not so bad. Really deep quake -- probably not too bad at all.

So, when you see a quake reported, have a look at the "depth" given in the data!

The Haiti quake on Jan 12, 2010 was a magnitude 7.0, so while it was "only" 0.2 magnitude bigger than the Vanuatu quake of 2 days ago, it was incredibly destructive because it occurred at a depth of only 13 km (about 8 miles) and very close to that nation's capital city.

That 0.2 magnitude doesn't sound like much, but every full mag bigger means the shaking is 10 x worse and the energy released is around 32 x greater. So, a magnitude 7.0 is about 1.5 x bigger in terms of shaking than a 6.8, and about 2 x stronger in energy released.

Fractions of magnitudes matter a lot, especially when we get into the higher numbers. But the Haiti quake was also very shallow and that's why it caused such terrible destruction -- especially because the buildings were often masonry, quite old and not reinforced.

Had that quake been 200 km deep like the Vanuatu one, the destruction would have been far, far less. Yes, some buildings might have been damaged or even collapsed, but not thousands of them as actually happened.

The second point was mentioned in the quote: scientists use computer modelling to estimate the effects of quakes. They set parameters for such things as location (epicenter), hypocentral depth, the type of faulting involved, the population distribution in the region, and the most common local building types. For many regions, they have all this information pre-loaded so when an event occurs they can "run" it on computers and see what the likely casualties and damage may be.

This is incredibly helpful in advance of quakes, for advising authorities on building codes and the like, and also for better coordinating emergency services. However, computer models have their limitations, which is why it's also extremely valuable for agencies like USGS to get the "felt" reports that people send in after a quake. So if you feel a quake -- even a small one -- then send in a "felt" report. It helps the experts, and that could wind up helping you if there's ever a bigger one!

For example, here's the USGS page for felt reports for "unknown" events. (Meaning they didn't get onto the maps.)

Mike

So I am very suddenly having a strong sense of something big coming. I associate this with quakes, but might just be due to a large loss of life....anyone else?? About 4:25 pacific time right now.

Merry Christmas to all my friends here!

reply to post by westcoast


Hi westcoast,

Long time, no see.

I don't know if I'm picking up the same thing as you, but today has been rough. I've not been hit like this in over a year and feeling a little bit concerned. I have not been myself today at all.

reply to post by onthelookout


Hmmmm...wish we weren't from the same area, makes me a bit nervous.

Merry Christmas though...hope you have been able to enjoy the day with your family!

Hello all... Hope you all had a lovely holiday season. I survived mine with not too much stress thankfully.

I've had very few symptoms at all in the last week or so, and had loads of energy too, not too much joint pain even, which was lovely. I was given a magnetic bracelet to wear a couple of days before Christmas, and it seems to have worked a treat, if that's what's done it. I deliberately haven't taken painkillers or any other therapies, just to try and pin down what works best.

Today however, I feel like crap. Was up early and had a very productive morning, then very suddenly at about 11.30 the headache and nausea started so suddenly I thought I has caught the norovirus bug that's doing the rounds here, but it's not that. I definitely would have known by now...it works very fast. The dizziness I felt was so bad I had to call in sick to work, and I'm *never* off sick...I feel really bad about it. Have slept a bit, but still have this feeling of motion sickness. What's caught my attention is how fast it all happened, like something has shifted or altered somewhere.

Been feelin it for the past couple hours. I can not get CA off my mind. Been trying to distract myself all afternoon from checking USGS.

I've had 3 nights of earthquake dreams, very intense dreams. The scenes were flashes, and jumbled rather than in order of progression. So unnerving & frightening. Each night, I've been waking up 2, 3 even 4 times last night with my heart pounding. One of the times I woke, I swear the earth felt as if it were still moving for a few seconds like it was in the dream (I practically hatched the USGS waiting to see a GoM quake show up, I was THAT convinced) I don't recall any maps or any spoken or written indication of where these dream earthquakes were. All I know is that they scared the bejeezus out of me, and I'm not looking forward to going to bed tonight, lest I dream them again.

Originally posted by Cherryontop
Been feelin it for the past couple hours. I can not get CA off my mind. Been trying to distract myself all afternoon from checking USGS.

I feel ya!! I have felt the same way about Cali for months now

I think Frisco might be the place......But what the heck do I know

Ear ringing in both ears at different times in the last hour. Feelings of pressure increasing.

Peace

reply to post by lasertaglover


Pressure is the same, but the ears are ringing tons all afternoon. Just had a really loud one in both ears.

Peace

reply to post by westcoast


I was thinking about you today!!! I saw a magnificent sun dog today. I have pics, but I took them on my phone and can't figuire out how to get them to the net. I posted one on FB, but that is as far as I can get it. I am technilogically challenged

I am in Kentucky and it is the first time I have ever seen a FULL sun dog. It was amazing. I hope it's not a bad sign.

I've been MIA for several weeks. Holiday company and my little one had surgery the day after Christmas.

I have a bad sinus infection so any pressure I have felt must be excluded. I have had a really bad case of the lazy feeling today, also have a need to munch on anything in sight.

Here is to hoping you all have a great 2013!

I've not posted in a few weeks as with all the stress/busy-ness that comes with Christmas/New year, i've been feeling about average. No real feelings towards any areas in the last few weeks at all really! Still have the ongoing dental work this month, so i'll be feeling crap from that into about Feb I think

Originally posted by Doodle19815
I've been MIA for several weeks. Holiday company and my little one had surgery the day after Christmas.

I have a bad sinus infection so any pressure I have felt must be excluded. I have had a really bad case of the lazy feeling today, also have a need to munch on anything in sight.

Here is to hoping you all have a great 2013!

I hope your wee one is well Doodle! I lose it at the thought of even having to take my little lady to the doctor, so surgery would leave me an absolute mess! x

reply to post by bkaust


She is very well indeed! You would have never guessed she had been under anesthesia when she woke. She never once needed pain meds and her scar is healing beautifully. She is only six so this Mommy was a disaster. Add to that, family staying for three weeks in an already full house and it was pure madness around here.

Thanks for the thoughts. I love my ATS quake family.

How is everyone feeling lately? I woke up after the Alaska 7.5 yesterday, and have been running on rhymes-with-witch mode ever since my eyes opened. I've been very short & rude with my friends and family, no matter how hard I try not to be. I recall feeling the same way for days after the Haida Gwaii/Queen Charlotte 'quake, too. I wonder if there's a correlation to the energy release from the fault & excessive grouchiness in people?

Hmmmm......
Hubby & I are both feeling queasy & off balance.
He's also dizzy, achy & has pain in his temples.

Lots of stuff going around....but funny we are both feeling it
at the same time if we are coming down with something.

Maybe not, he said now he has the presure pushing down on his shoulders
& his chest. That's usually one of his quake signs.
My ears have started some serious ringing now.

Eqs usually make me hungry, not queasy!!!
We pretty much missed the 7.5 & haven't been feeling much of anything lately.
(Kind of nice for a change!) Maybe something did shift on the 21st!
WOQ