GOP senator says Trump should drop out

a reply to: network dude
If the way people are betting is any indication of how the Presidential race will go, Trump has struggled to get 30% of the bets for the 2024 Election while Biden is near 40% and has maintained a lead since betting opened. Currently Biden has slightly over a 10% lead. This is based on about $2 million worth of 'trades' on one site. Countless other sites do not disclose volume, but all give Biden a substantial lead.

The highest Trump has been is still lower than the lowest Biden has been.

While its still early, these odds get be great predictors of who will win.

a reply to: sine.nomine

Trump lost virtually all independents after his actions leading up and on January 6th as well as a significant number of Republicans.

This is why he can not win 2024 without an extremely strong left leaning 3rd party candidate. At best Trump can get maybe 35% and that is being extremely generous.

I would wager that Trump will struggle to get 30% of the vote.

a reply to: jrod

You have such a good track record, ill be sure to pay attention when you speak.

originally posted by: CoyoteAngels
a reply to: Mahogany

What is your intention with this post? We all know that Trump isn't well regarded by the GOP establishment. Well, the GOP establishment isn't well regarded by the base any more.

Because they may as well be democrats.

the term uniparty is as useful to describe washington as it is to describe westminster, neither represent their respective countries and that issue is getting ever closer to coming to ahead.. and seeing either the gop or tories side with their political opponents reinforces the true nature of faux democracy in the west..

originally posted by: jrod
a reply to: sine.nomine

Trump lost virtually all independents after his actions leading up and on January 6th as well as a significant number of Republicans.

This is why he can not win 2024 without an extremely strong left leaning 3rd party candidate. At best Trump can get maybe 35% and that is being extremely generous.

I would wager that Trump will struggle to get 30% of the vote.

did 2016 not inform anyone that wishing something doesn't make it real.. both clinton and uks remain where significantly in the lead and a win for both was totally guarenteed

oh boy

SSDD

originally posted by: jrod
a reply to: sine.nomine

Trump lost virtually all independents after his actions leading up and on January 6th as well as a significant number of Republicans.

This is why he can not win 2024 without an extremely strong left leaning 3rd party candidate. At best Trump can get maybe 35% and that is being extremely generous.

I would wager that Trump will struggle to get 30% of the vote.

The vast majority of independent voters currently lean Trump vs Biden. And Kennedy is taking votes from Biden. I think you're misjudging the situation.

Also, while many republican voters would lean away from Trump (myself included), the push to keep Biden politics out of office outweighs that by a mile come the general election.

a reply to: sine.nomine

You have a much better take on the situation than the post you responded to.

The biggest factor here is that Jan. 6 is way far in the rear view mirror for most everyone. Since then, we have had high inflation, shortages, travel issues, border is being overrun again, and investigations for bribery and treason against the Trump alternative.

Dont be thinking the independents are falling out in droves against Trump this time, if the choice is Biden.

a reply to: CoyoteAngels

each election since bush/blairs disasterous crusade in iraq has been a rejection of the 3rd way status quo they embeded in the state for the uk that culminated in brexit for the us in trump.. both are expressions of the same rejection left and right.. all independents lean one way or the other and use it as a mask like those who define themselves as centerists

as we approach another bout of elections it seems the majority are politically homeless in their rejection of the uniparty, they want someone or a party to deliver on 2 decades of blocked change.

so I see any pronouncements in favour of the uniparty as the same fear based proporganda they've been using for years that is both boring and grating now..

a reply to: nickyw

You, my friend, have a deep and experienced view of politics. Your analysis is BANG on.

Im actually a registered independent. I left the GOP when I changed back to my maiden name and at the DMV I was automatically given the opportunity to update my voter registration. This was in 2017. Id thought about it for years.

I support Trump because he is the ONLY politician in my lifetime that has fought back instead of participating in the shadows while 'taking the higher ground' and 'going along to get along' in the daylight.

originally posted by: knoxie
a reply to: tanstaafl

Every Republican and I know does not want Trump to be the nominee. The people I know who are Republicans are not Maga hat wearing wrap your car in a flag sort, though.

Obviously, they are the Romney/Cheney/McCain warmonger supporting RINOs...

a reply to: CoyoteAngels

us and uk politics are quite mirrored in a lot of ways the desire for change after 2 decades of the status quo is quite evident..

even the dreaded 52/48 divide

with that in mind taking the uk +50% are politically homeless and the left is on 50% of the other 50% and the conservatives are 25% of the 50%, what it tells us regardless of polling numbers there is still everything to play for..

if the politically homeless in the us also mirror the uk then they will be economically liberal and socially conservative, to win the coming elections that is the king maker group.

change is galloping our way led by the homeless

I'm still trying to wrap my head around the logic of "Trump can't win, so we need to find a way to stop him from running." It seems to me that a candidate would love to run against someone who didn't have a chance of winning.

a reply to: nickyw

Where do the conservative fiscally and conservative socially go? Note that does NOT mean religious.

a reply to: VictorVonDoom

🎯

They don't have to make sense. In fact, the goal is to make you crazy.

Kinda like zombies and vampires. Make us like them.

a reply to: tanstaafl

So what you are saying is that Trump supporters are independent then?

Interesting. Always thought so myself. Independent lean GOP.

But that seems to blow the marxists minds. Because Borg.

a reply to: CoyoteAngels

When has the Left EVER Had Any Respect for American's of ALL Faiths ? They are Mostly Self Loathing Atheists Devoid of Any Critical Thinking when it Comes to the Beliefs and Opinions of Others .

Case in Point ....

originally posted by: CoyoteAngels
a reply to: sine.nomine

You have a much better take on the situation than the post you responded to.

The biggest factor here is that Jan. 6 is way far in the rear view mirror for most everyone. Since then, we have had high inflation, shortages, travel issues, border is being overrun again, and investigations for bribery and treason against the Trump alternative.

Dont be thinking the independents are falling out in droves against Trump this time, if the choice is Biden.

I'm confused by your reply. It sounds like you fully agree with me. Maybe I wasn't clear, or I'm reading the reply wrong?

a reply to: sine.nomine

Yes we qgree. I confuse my audience sometime when I get on a roll and often are chiming in with the argument the person I replied to against who they were arguing.

Or something like that!

a reply to: sine.nomine
No they do not.

Not sure where you got that information.

The reality is Trump's actions with refusing to accept defeat and his participation on January 6th that sparked the Capitol riot has resulted in almost all swing voters abandoning support for him, as well as a significant number of straight Republican voters.

Regardless of what you believe, the polling and betting odds tell the story.

I would be shocked if he ends up on the Republican ticket, if he does expect a big lost.

While the MAGA crowd thinks the Republican debates do not matter because Trump is not there, I disagree.

We will see, I expect when the polling numbers come our post Milwaukee debate, which can take over a week, Trump's lead will be significantly less. The betting odds will reflect this sooner than the polling data and by this weekend we will have a clear picture.

One can not reply telling I am wrong, until these polling numbers a d betting odds come out...but I know you will beg to differ.

I do think a lot of you will be eating crow. I do think if Trump loses his lead in the Republican primary, Trump and his faithful will once again cry the polls are rigged.