Why China’s Ukraine balancing act might be tilting in Putin’s favor

So unless the Chinese spy balloon was utterly innocuous, which our government says is not, this isn't a good sign. Hell if they share some of thier individual intelligence it isn't a good thing.

China will now likely supply weapons and arms to Russia if this occurs the ferocity and duration of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine just got a lot worse.

forever Special Military Operation worse.

But at least that works for the worldwide MIC

Somebody look at these figures, it's worded strangely, one sentence says the total number of civilian deaths 7,155 for all of Ukraine. Yet goes on to add 4,172 were killed In Donetsk and Luhansk regions. and goes further to add In other regions of Ukraine (the city of Kyiv, and Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Poltava, Rivne, Lviv, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Volyn, and Zhytomyr regions), which were under Government control when casualties occurred: 8,725 casualties (2,983 killed and 5,742 injured)

Do we add all these up? to get an exact civilian death total? when I do it's 14,310 which would sound closer to what you would expect, but even that is seriously low collateral damage in a country of 41,130,432. Yes, I'm aware some of the Ukrainian military deaths were probably civilians who became combatants, but we can't get an accurate total there either.

The point is to expect those numbers to climb at a higher rate this year over last year. A lot higher if Russia goes fully committed and is backed by China in arms and munitions.

www.ohchr.org...

Total civilian casualties from 24 February 2022 to 5 February 2023

From 24 February 2022 to 5 February 2023, OHCHR recorded 18,817 civilian casualties in Ukraine: 7,155 killed and 11,662 injured.

a total of 7,155 killed (2,853 men, 1,927 women, 180 girls, and 226 boys, as well as 32 children and 1,937 adults whose sex is not yet known)

a total of 11,662 injured (2,576 men, 1,833 women, 248 girls, and 339 boys, as well as 264 children and 6,402 adults whose sex is not yet known)

In Donetsk and Luhansk regions: 10,092 casualties (4,172 killed and 5,920 injured)

On Government-controlled territory: 7,888 casualties (3,665 killed and 4,223 injured)

On territory controlled by Russian armed forces and affiliated armed groups: 2,204 casualties (507 killed and 1,697 injured)

In other regions of Ukraine (the city of Kyiv, and Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Poltava, Rivne, Lviv, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Volyn, and Zhytomyr regions), which were under Government control when casualties occurred: 8,725 casualties (2,983 killed and 5,742 injured)

www.nbcnews.com...

While President Joe Biden was in Kyiv, China’s top diplomat was heading to Moscow — a split screen that reflects renewed fears China may be doubling down on its bet on the Kremlin.


HONG KONG — A flurry of European diplomatic activity over Russia’s war in Ukraine has offered a stark contrast this week: While President Joe Biden made a surprise visit to Kyiv, one of China’s most senior diplomats was heading to Moscow.

Wang Yi, Chinese President Xi Jinping's senior foreign policy adviser, gave one of the strongest indications yet of Russia and China's strengthening ties on Wednesday.

“We are ready to deepen our strategic partnership,” he said according to Reuters. “Other countries cannot put pressure on our relations,” Wang added as he met with President Vladimir Putin, who said he was looking forward to a visit by Xi Jinping.

The comments will feed fears that Western backing for Ukraine will be matched by China doubling down on its bet on the Kremlin. Beijing has been engaged in a delicate balancing act, experts told NBC News but may find that increasingly strained as the conflict moves into its second year.

Washington has accused Beijing of providing Russia nonlethal military assistance against Ukraine and even considering providing lethal aid. China denies the allegations, saying the U.S. has escalated the situation by sending weapons to Kyiv.

watching how china has used covid to pivot itself into a real position to challenge a deindustrialising west and consolidate the global south is very reminiscent of the moves the us made in the 30s to oppose Britain..

its a fine line for an insurgent super power to walk but its a well trodden path, Britain did the same to displace the continental powers... to expect china to be different is to wish the moon was made of cheese

China's new ramping up support for Russia coincides nicely with that recent Pentagon email system breach a while back. 😎🐇

a reply to: putnam6

If China supplies arms to Russia, the US and allies can supply arms to Taiwan, and has already threatened to do so as a way of disincentivizing China.

I’m not sure China has an unambiguous strategic interest one way or the other.

On the one hand, they would probably like Russia to succeed in retaking Ukraine because that would provide some kind of argument in support of mainland China retaking Taiwan.

On the other hand, openly entering the war on Russia’s side would open China up to the same kind of economic and political warfare being levied against Russia and that would be costly for them. Not as costly as it is to Russia, because China’s economy is much bigger. Nevertheless, the US and allies would find ways to make it as costly as possible.

Is Russia worth the cost to China? I dunno.

originally posted by: nickyw
watching how china has used covid to pivot itself into a real position to challenge a deindustrialising west and consolidate the global south is very reminiscent of the moves the us made in the 30s to oppose Britain..

its a fine line for an insurgent superpower to walk but its a well-trodden path, Britain did the same to displace the continental powers... to expect china to be different is to wish the moon was made of cheese

Where did I wish anything, of course, China is gonna do what's best for the PLA and China economically, just pointing out, this crap isn't close to being over. Regardless of China's intentions, or the Ukrainians' will and determination.

The only chance we had of this bogging down was Russia not being able to supply thier troops. We know NATO is fully committed unless something changes.

However, agree completely China is making moves all over to solidify thier position economically and militarily. Would like to read more if you have some links or sources and could point me in the right direction.

a reply to: 1947boomer

Is Russia worth the cost to China? I dunno.

of course it is to get their multipolar world.. its why china is also trying to woo London and Westminster..

it feels like the democrats in particular have a habit of alienating allies. we saw it with obama in libya and syria and see it again with turkey, and afghanistan.. feels a bit like the way the western allies lost trust in britain in the 50s and 60s..

The world population needs to be reduced by 6.5 billion people ASAP to go along with the Green plan, though I suppose the war in Ukraine really could be all about saving one corrupt regime from another.....

Obviously world dominance has nothing to do with it.

originally posted by: xuenchen
China's new ramping up support for Russia coincides nicely with that recent Pentagon email system breach a while back. 😎🐇

Hell I saw that xuenchen and haven't had time to stick my nose into it, was it a hack attack, or was it leaked? No doubt the same result but decidedly different implications

Good thing Biden isn't totally compromised by China.

originally posted by: 1947boomer
a reply to: putnam6

If China supplies arms to Russia, the US and allies can supply arms to Taiwan, and has already threatened to do so as a way of disincentivizing China.

I’m not sure China has an unambiguous strategic interest one way or the other.

On the one hand, they would probably like Russia to succeed in retaking Ukraine because that would provide some kind of argument in support of mainland China retaking Taiwan.

On the other hand, openly entering the war on Russia’s side would open China up to the same kind of economic and political warfare being levied against Russia and that would be costly for them. Not as costly as it is to Russia, because China’s economy is much bigger. Nevertheless, the US and allies would find ways to make it as costly as possible.

Is Russia worth the cost to China? I dunno.

Probably but hearing where the US is getting low on certain munitions and arms already, not that the MIC minds that at all.

You might not get the meme but it's apropos anytime we start supplying arms to somebody else.

The US was in the wrong with Ukraine, so it can't cry foul now that china is doing the same.
This democrat administration has endangered us all.

originally posted by: nugget1
The world population needs to be reduced by 6.5 billion people ASAP to go along with the Green plan, though I suppose the war in Ukraine really could be all about saving one corrupt regime from another.....

Obviously world dominance has nothing to do with it.

Let's put it this way if your theory of the Greenies' pop reduction plan hooked up with my theory it's the MIC war profits plan.

We could be looking at a world of death and suffering on the horizon.

Here's the thing that's scary if this is true, somebody somewhere is mapping out which 6.5 billion need to be cut and how?

In this theory, I'm sure COVID was atleast a partial success makes me wonder how long before they find another disaster to manufacture.

originally posted by: IAMTAT
Good thing Biden isn't totally compromised by China.

Come on that wasn't a spy balloon China was just competing, what are you afraid of a little competition?

I ain't skeered

We Joe Biden at the helm, America has never been so secure and prosperous...

a reply to: putnam6

maybe poorly worded if you thought it a personal attack ads i wasn't accusing you of anything but rather directing my thoughts at the current USA admin should have been able to see this happening..

as it goes if I was to reference ukraine it would be as a modern spanish civil war in terms of where we are in this process..

in terms of reading/listening material out of london/ireland i tend to follow the social democrat (bias is economic liberals/social conservatives) stream of thinking as a it yields various insights that the msm reporting misses, one is the multipolar podcast.. to be fair most is anti war but they do focus on the moves china has been making under the radar to consolidate and who its trying to woo..

Much of which is missed in western press..

a reply to: putnam6

It was a secure, unclassified server hooked to the cloud that was set up with no password. It contained sensitive information, including SF-86 forms, mostly relating to SOCOM.

a reply to: putnam6

In this theory, I'm sure COVID was atleast a partial success makes me wonder how long before they find another disaster to manufacture.

we seem to hot foot it from one to another.. in that regard i'm sure they already have the next lined up..

a reply to: putnam6

Getting low doesn't mean running out. We have a certain threshold that we keep, so that we have time to ramp up production in case of a major war. We're approaching that threshold, but we still have plenty of weapons in stock. Production is ramping up, to a degree, which will improve that over the next year.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: putnam6

Getting low doesn't mean running out. We have a certain threshold that we keep, so that we have time to ramp up production in case of a major war. We're approaching that threshold, but we still have plenty of weapons in stock. Production is ramping up, to a degree, which will improve that over the next year.

Biden probably shouldn't have left that $85B in US weaponry behind in Afghanistan, for the Taliban to use and sell.

a reply to: nugget1

the issue i see is which 6.5 billion.. as all the greenies i've heard promote it exclude themselves their friends and the people they treat as serfs and indeed everyone like them..

so all we have to do is identify as greenies to get a pass

a reply to: IAMTAT

That $5B in equipment would have taken years to move, and was largely the result of ramped up production above our normal requirements. There was no real way to get it back once it was there, unless we started moving it back years ago, when our troops in country actually needed it. The only realistic option was blow it up, which wasn't really feasible, or disable it in ways that would make it difficult to repair at best.