Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: MrsPixie
It's hard to make sense out of your post because you don't specify exactly what it is that you're getting that's supposedly the opposite of what we are saying here, especially since not all the posters here have a unified voice, some seem to be Ukraine-supporters and some seem to be Russia supporters or propagandists.

Putin has more than tripled his military expenditures from a little over 2% of GDP in 2021 to around 7% in 2024, and now that the Russian election is over he's going to ramp up conscription to increase the size of the army, or should I say build it back up since he's had tremendous losses. According to a US report he's lost 87% of the troops he started the war with, through death or injury.

The source that cav usually posts excerpts from is the ISW=Institute for the study of war, though some of their comments are speculative, but I think they usually tell you when they are speculating. It's sometimes a day or three behind actual events but I think this is intentional to not provide the current status to be used by the war participants. Here's yesterday's update:

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 24, 2024

-Ukrainian forces struck a Black Sea Fleet (BSF) communications center in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, and reportedly struck an oil depot and at least partially damaged two BSF landing ships on the night of March 23.

-Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of February 23 to 24, mainly targeting southern and western Ukraine.

-Russian forces are reportedly approaching the outskirts of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast but are unlikely to threaten the settlement with encirclement or seizure in the coming months.

-The Islamic State’s (IS) Amaq News Agency published footage on March 23 purportedly filmed from the perspective of the attackers involved in the March 22 Crocus City Hall attack.[27] The footage further supports ISW’s assessment that IS is very likely responsible for the Crocus City Hall attack, despite continued efforts by Kremlin mouthpieces to baselessly tie Ukraine to the attack.

See more at the link.

If you want to know where the front lines are, the Deep State map is fairly reliable, showing which side holds what territory and where the gray zones are. That's really the bottom line, and it shows Russia is making advances this year, but very slowly. The Russian advances will slow down even more once they encounter the new defense lines Ukraine is building, similar to the Russian defense lines that stalled Ukraine's summer offensive last year.

deepstatemap.live...

Photos show Ukraine bracing for Russian assaults with some of the same tricks that derailed its big counteroffensive

-New photos show Ukraine's military building up its defenses in Kharkiv.
-Ukraine has already put in trenches and dragon's teeth, among other fortifications.
-Experts suggest that Ukraine defend what it has and deny Russia more land gains.

One possibility is that when Russian troops hit those robust defense lines Ukraine is building, it could turn into more of a frozen conflict than it already is.

This is a little dated, but it shows how much territory Russia took in an entire year, it's hard to even see their advances at this scale, but if you zoom in, you can see Russia advancing slowly.

Even if you look at a more current map, and compare that to a map from one year ago, it's still hard to see the advances Russia made in the last year at this scale.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Any gains the Russians have made barely shows on a map. Ukraine is busy building defensive positions. I can predict Ukraines next move however it looks to me that suddenly they are focusing on Crimea softening it up. I'm thinking sometime within the year we are going to see an amphibious invasion of Crimea. They already tested the waters so to speak by sending special operations there to play. They were probing the defences and I see they are slowly destroying military assets in the area.

I'd argue this could be a smart move as loss of this area would hurt Putin in the eyes of Russians. My only question is could they hold it? Judging from recent incursions into Russian territory I'm thinking it just might be possible

a reply to: dragonridr
Ukraine needs those 60 F-16s to attack the planes that are bombing them on the front lines and that would bomb them in Crimea. Unfortunately Crimea will soon not be as isolated as it is now. There has been a lot of talk about destroying the Kerch bridge to cut off Russia's supply lines to Crimea. But Russia is busy building a railroad through the land bridge they now occupy, to Crimea, so even if the Kerch bridge is destroyed, they can get supplies from the soon to be railroad. That's going to make holding Crimea much harder than it would have been last year when the Kerch Bridge was out.

Putin plans 450-mile railway to Crimea

Vladimir Putin plans to build a 450-mile railway from Russia to Crimea in an attempt to create a backup supply line for troops in case the Kerch bridge is destroyed.

The Russian president told a crowd of supporters on Monday that he would make sure the new railway, which runs through occupied Ukraine, would soon be operational.

“I have just been informed that the railway from [Russian] Rostov-on-Don to Donetsk, Mariupol and Berdyansk has been rebuilt,” he said.

“We will continue this work, and soon trains will ride all the way to Crimea, and this will be another alternative route, in addition to the Crimean bridge.”

a reply to: Arbitrageur


I doubt the idea building that railroad is good one.....Ukraine has missiles that can cause enough damage to it . They will destroy it ....

originally posted by: Kenzo
a reply to: Arbitrageur


I doubt the idea building that railroad is good one.....Ukraine has missiles that can cause enough damage to it . They will destroy it ....

Of course they can, but the railroad on land can be repaired in days, compared to the Kerch bridge repairs which can take months. It's also an asymmetric attack financially, because the cost of the missile is far greater than the cost of the repairs to the land railroad damages caused by the missile. Ukraine likes the asymmetry when it goes in their favor rather than against them, so they'd rather be targeting a 200 million dollar radar system or refinery with their two million dollar missile, instead of a railroad on land Russia can repair for 2 thousand dollars or whatever.

Now if Russia uses the land railroad to transport some high value equipment to Crimea, then the high value equipment on that railroad would make more sense to target, than food or ammo which Russia has plenty of.

Ukraine doesn't have the men to do this nor the weapons.
a reply to: dragonridr

a reply to: cookalldafood

They don't have any missiles?

Why does the MSM say that Russia will use the concert hall attack as an excuse to bomb Kyiv? When have they ever said they wouldn't bomb Kyiv? Surely in their view all of Ukraine is open for attack?

a reply to: stu119

They don't seem to need any excuse.

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

Thats what i mean and yet the BBC:

"Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said it was obvious Mr Putin was looking for pretexts to attack Kyiv, but said the videos of the attack were clear, and more than one IS claim confirmed the theory that it was involved."

www.bbc.co.uk...

a reply to: stu119

To be fair, they were simply reporting what the Italian Foreign Minister has said, amongst others.

originally posted by: stu119
Why does the MSM say that Russia will use the concert hall attack as an excuse to bomb Kyiv? When have they ever said they wouldn't bomb Kyiv? Surely in their view all of Ukraine is open for attack?

It’s not so much that they’ll use it as an excuse to attack Ukraine, but more so that they’ll use it as a way to get the Russian population to fully support more military spending and another mobilization.

No updates from Cav since 20th March.
He hasn't visited the site since then as well.

I miss the daily updates.

I sincerely hope he's ok.

a reply to: Freeborn

Doing well, mate! Thanks for the note. See the next comment for an updates summary.

Cheers!

Summary of activity, 21 - 28 March 2024

21 March
22 March
23 March
24 March
25 March
26 March
27 March
28 March

21 March

Russian forces conducted a larger series of missile strikes targeting Kyiv City on the night of March 20 to 21. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched two Iskander-M/KN-23/Kh-72M Kinzhal ballistic and “aeroballistic” missiles and 29 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles from 11 Tu-95MS from Volgodonsk, Rostov Oblast and Engels, Saratov Oblast and that Ukrainian air defenses and mobile fire units shot down all of the missiles over Kyiv Oblast.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on March 21.

22 March

Russian forces conducted the largest series of combined drone and missile strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure since the start of the full-scale invasion during the night of March 21-22. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces launched 151 drones and missiles at Ukraine overnight, including 63 Shahed-136/131 drones from Primorsko Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; 12 Iskander-M missiles from Belgorod Oblast and occupied Crimea; 40 Kh-101/Kh-55 missiles from strategic bombers over the Caspian Sea; five Kh-22 cruise missiles from bombers over Rostov Oblast; seven Kh-47 Kinzhal missiles from bombers over Tambov Oblast; two Kh-59 cruise missiles from bombers over occupied Zaporizhia Oblast; and 22 S-300/S-400 air defense missiles from Belgorod and Kursk oblasts.

This Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for a mass shooting and bombing at a concert venue in the suburbs of Moscow on the evening of March 22. Russian authorities reported that three to five attackers in camouflage opened fire with automatic weapons and detonated explosives during an event at the “Crocus City Hall” concert venue in Krasnogorsk on the northwestern outskirts of Moscow City, killing at least 40 and injuring at least 100.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact.

23 March

Russian forces made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

24 March

Ukrainian forces struck a Black Sea Fleet (BSF) communications center in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, and reportedly struck an oil depot and at least partially damaged two BSF landing ships on the night of March 23. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 24 that Ukrainian forces successfully struck the BSF’s Yamal and Azov Ropucha-class landing ships, a BSF communications center, and several unspecified BSF infrastructure facilities in Sevastopol.

Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of February 23 to 24, mainly targeting southern and western Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force reported on March 24 that Russian forces launched 29 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles from Tu-95MS strategic aircraft and 28 Shahed-136/131 drones from Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City amid continued positional fighting along the entire line of contact on March 24.

25 March

Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated on March 25 that Ukrainian forces struck the BSF ship repair plant in Sevastopol where the Yamal Ropucha-class landing ship was moored on March 23, making a hole in the Yamal’s upper deck and forcing BSF personnel to continuously pump water out of the ship. Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk stated that the March 23 Ukrainian strike on the BSF communications center caused substantial damage, which Pletenchuk assessed may significantly hinder the functioning of the BSF because the communications center supported the general activities of the fleet and may have also been responsible for the fleet’s provisions, ongoing repairs, and other important functions.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka on March 25.

26 March

Ukrainian officials stated on March 26 that Ukrainian forces successfully conducted a strike on the night of March 23 to 24 against a Ukrainian ship that Russian forces had captured in 2014. Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk stated that Ukrainian forces conducted a Neptune missile strike on the Ukrainian Kostyantyn Olshanskyi Ropucha-class landing ship that Russian forces captured during Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Bakhmut on March 26.

27 March

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and southwest of Donetsk City on March 27.

28 March

Senior Russian officials are intensifying their victim-blaming of Armenian leadership as Armenia continues to distance itself from security relations with Russia after the Kremlin abandoned Armenia to its fate as it lost Nagorno-Karabakh.

Russian forces made confirmed advances near Donetsk City.

More at URLs above.

Cheers

NATO Nation Scrambles Fighter Jets As Russian Missiles Rain Down on Ukraine

"The enemy launched a powerful missile-airstrike against the facilities of the fuel and energy sector of Ukraine, using various types of missiles and attack UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles)," the air force said, adding that air-defense systems downed 84 of the 99 launched weapons.
"Honor and praise to all who defend Ukraine from Russian terror. Thank you for your combat efforts. Thank you for this result!" the post added.

Ukraine's national power grid operator Ukrenergo said the target of the Russian assault was the country's energy infrastructure facilities.

Source

Russia has launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine in the wee hours of Friday. "Russia launched 99 missiles and drones."
Due to the incident on March 24, Poland has responded with "all necessary procedures aimed at ensuring the safety of Polish airspace."

Things are heating up.

a reply to: Freeborn

PM for Freeborn.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Replied mate.

Pleased all is good.

A couple of half decent documentaries, not sure if people from outside the UK can watch them though.
Might be available on YouTube?

Ukraine: Enemy in the Woods.
www.bbc.co.uk...

Defenders of Donbas.
www.bbc.co.uk...

a reply to: Bishop2199

Wow that's impressive means they 85 of 99 missiles and drones very impressive. Since you figure there are areas with limited air defense they can't cover everything.

a reply to: Freeborn

Wow I just watched enemy in the woods that was intense I found myself cheering and mourning with them. Just watching them try to repel wave after wave of Russian soldiers. You can see how vovan was changed from before thr fight to after it was nice seeing him hold his son.

I noticed Russians were very quick to give up their fellow soldiers while these Ukrainians fought like brothers and sisters. You could see the differences as to what they were fighting for.