Operation Yellowhammer. Brexit and it's likely effects.

originally posted by: eletheia
[...]
^^^If you can see that^^^ !!! How can all the scared remainers in the UK not see it ...... Has the complacency of being in the EU made them into zombies?
[...]

Could have something to do with me not watching BBC or reading the Tabloids


Or maybe I use my eyes to look past the doom porn?



We are all going to die is just more interesting than: we live in interesting times,Harry



Or on a more serious note: who's controlling the media and what do they want you to believe?
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On a side note, what scares me is this:
If they prove that the democratic will of the people is bad, what long term consequences will it have?

a reply to: ManFromEurope

Someone posted in another thread that the UK is the 5th largest, on wiki it's the 4th.

The gist is: UK is not a tiny island in front of continental Europe. It is a large economy that needs to be reckoned with and should be respected and must respect itself.

It should leave Europe as the proud nation that it once used to be and become a good trading partner.


That is what the people voted for. And that is what must be done. This spineless crap is embarrassing

originally posted by: ManFromEurope
a reply to: eletheia

Uhm, did you take a look at that wikipedia-site?

Because esp. that table is deemed "failed verification", and I couldn't follow verification myself if I look at the linked WTO-website, too.

In other words: Lies. Whitewashing. Fogging.

Figures can be used and skewed ..... Its done all the time in sales.

I was in sales and pity the salesperson that tries to sell to me.

Applied logic and whats in it for them is a better measure.

originally posted by: VictorVonDoom

originally posted by: ScepticScot

It doesn't assume we become bitter rivals, it assumes we have third country status after having left the EU without a deal.

The EU is a single market and customs union which means that trade deals are done with the EU as a whole not individual member States.

The EU will appily tariffs and restriction on us, not to be vindictive, but because that what we in the UK have decided to have happen.

Shortages could come mainly because we have a infrastructure set up to manage free trade between us and the EU. Getting up to speed to handle the new reality isn't going to be a seamless process.

Are you saying that EU member nations do not have the right to negotiate trade deals with other nations without the EU's permission?

You do make a good point about temporary shortages, though. If you have to wait for the current government to negotiate new trade deals, people will go hungry for a while. If you sent the current Parliament to the grocery store with a shopping list and some money, they would come back two years later with no food or money saying they couldn't decide which brand of butter to buy.

All trade deals are done through the EU. EU is a customs union and single market.

originally posted by: Aldolas

originally posted by: ScepticScot
If you do read the document carefully you will see talking potential delays of days for HGVs which will cause significant logistic issues.

The idea that Brexit will hurt EU more than UK is fantasy. While the EU will face disruption and economic loss it will be much less and more localised than the impact on the UK.

You are right: in a worst case it will take some adjusting. But, give it a couple of months and the customer won't notice much of a difference.
(We generally tend to forget, that there are loads of people that do everything they can to make things work.
Partly because they want to make money, partly because they're scared of losing their jobs)


Secondly:
If you check Wikipedia you'll notice that the 4th largest country based on international trade is the UK!
BTW the UK contributes over a 1/4 of the trade of the whole European Union combined!!!


The EU cannot afford to lose you as a trading partner. If you start trading with the US instead of with us, that's going to cause really big problems.
Which means, as much as they would love to teach everyone a lesson -that you don't just leave the EU-, they have to be 'kind' to you...


So...yeah: On a short term Britain is in for a bumpy ride. On a long term the EU is losing one of the worlds strongest economies which is seriously not good!

About 50% of UK trade is with EU. Leaving with out a deal means putting up barriers and costs to that trade.

It's not a case,of stopping trading with EU and starting elsewhere. We already trade across the world. It's about the costs and convenience of doing that trade.

originally posted by: Aldolas
a reply to: ManFromEurope

Someone posted in another thread that the UK is the 5th largest, on wiki it's the 4th.

The gist is: UK is not a tiny island in front of continental Europe. It is a large economy that needs to be reckoned with and should be respected and must respect itself.

It should leave Europe as the proud nation that it once used to be and become a good trading partner.


That is what the people voted for. And that is what must be done. This spineless crap is embarrassing

And yet, that data failed verification. I am not telling you that your economy is doomed, but it might be doomed, there is a difference.

"The" people... Better "Some" people, about 25% of them. But okay, lets never try and talk about that or having a new voting, because that would be scandalous and frivol, because The people have voted, right? The older people, mostly. Not the young generation which will have to endure this for much longer than the old people.

But okay. Lets get it over quickly. Try not to set North Ireland on fire, btw, thanks.

a reply to: Soloprotocol

Couple of things after having a quick read through this:

1 - This is a worst case prediction. Heck it's already been announced by the government and some of the civil servants that this is only a worst case report and not everything in this report will happen.

2 - Key assessments - (4) The EU commission have already said that there would be no additional immigration checks. That UK citizens could stay for 60 or 90 days (can't remember which) using their passport as long as the same was offered to EU citizens visiting the UK.

(9) Considering we have one of the biggest data retention systems I doubt the apparent lack of "flow" of personal data and intel would last very long after all the EU loves personal data.

(10) The fact that the UK has offered and accepted that ALL EU citizens living in the UK will have the same rights and access to the same services as British citizens, I'm surprised the EU has not (apparently) offered the same.

(iii) Again UK has said EU citizens living here would get access to healthcare as any Brit yet the EU isn't saying the pensioners would continue to get their services for free even when the UK government offered to fund that and instead will be treated as any other 3rd country national.

(12) Gibraltar has been in the crosshairs of the EU for decades now and will do anything they can to try and have the UK give it up even though the people living there have voted to remain part of the United Kingdom.

(18) You mean the UK will implement the very border idea that we gave to the EU and they shot down claiming it wouldn't work? The same border policy we've been using for decades? The very same one that the EU don't want to admit would work because it would mean that Northern Ireland couldn't be used as the choking point on any deal?

(19) The EU would be sued. If they allow fishing boats to enter UK waters without guarding their side, without putting up protections and warnings and enforcing laws to stop it then the UK government only needs to sue them simple.

Look let's be grown ups here. We all know there will be trouble for a few months it's obviously going to happen with any major change. Did I expect a free trade deal (even though one was offered and May turned it away for some stupid backward thinking reason)? Yes I did, I expected trade to be free both ways to continue good trade between the two nations (remember we buy more from them than they do from us...much more) but it didn't happen because our previous PM was well lets be honest weak when standing up to the EU figureheads. Do I want to see people thrown out of the country who weren't born here? No I'm not a monster, I didn't vote based on immigration (though some may have) I voted on my fear of what the EU is becoming (power hungry vacuum where the people have no rights to remove corrupt officials and higher ups) but I did and would still vote to Leave, warts and all. I've heard the treats of not adopting the Euro and giving up the pound, I heard how we would instantly enter a recession the day the results of the in/out vote happened THREE YEARS AGO, I heard the threat of the United Kingdom breaking up when we leave and I'm tired of the threats and the fear pushing.

If both sides weren't looking to score political points, if the EU were not afraid that the UK might make a great success of leaving (we will it'll take a year or so but we will) because other countries would soon have their own Brexit so they have to try and play hard ball and our government is doing the same.

In short, Do I want a deal? Yeah I want a deal but not to the extent that we give up the very things that makes the point of Brexit, borders, money, laws, trade, foreign policy, military (look up European Defense Agency and their future plans...I think that's what its called lol). I already have to worry about the UK government being corrupt I really don't want to have to worry about the EU being their top dog. We're the United Kingdom, the fifth richest nation on the planet, inventor of some great things like the toilet, the internet etc. we're muddlers we get through the worst of it and coming out better. I'm not saying that it'll be smooth sailing by any means and as a "poor person" I can get the fears and worry, it's why I planned ahead for what I could, but I would accept a few troubling years if it meant we get control back.

I understand and accept that people do not want Brexit to happen but if it doesn't if we have a second vote with the option to remain on it then democracy is forever damaged in the UK because 17 plus million people will most likely never vote again. Any second vote should be "Deal or No Deal" type voting and NOT have the option to remain it'll damage democracy in the UK, and we're already on thin ice with it as it is.


(I think this is the longest comment/reply I've ever made lol).

a reply to: ManFromEurope

No!

Over 50% of the people who could be asked to vote.

People that can't be asked to vote have the right to shut up and enjoy the consequences.


In a democracy you don't vote until you like the outcome. You vote once.
And live with the consequences


Wth is wrong with people

Over 50% said leave.

Brexit should have been over and done with ages ago, but instead all over the place people are suffering, suspended in a void, fearing the worst.

As I said earlier: I live in Germany and I'm at home half the time, because of Brexit.

Stories from my brother in England are worse.


So stop discussing of you like Brexit,or if everything is unfair, or if you want to vote another 5 times or if ....


Just get your act together and sort it out.
No the world won't end, but it will be uncomfortable, for all Europeans: continental Europeans and our friends from the island

Anyone read history of 1939-40 ? No ? well, Great Britain was alone in the war against Germany, no help from anywhere that did not have to be paid for first, and yet GB survived another four years of war, to free the very city (Brussels), that is now taxing GB into penury, that just seems a little ungrateful to me.

The French, Dutch, Danes, Spanish and Italians, with still want to sell us their goods, even if they have to rent cargo trucks and sea ferries to get the goods to GB shores.

GB buys more from those countries than they buy from GB.

As soon as we finish later I'm off to Poundstretcher and purchasing 365 tins of Baxters Carrot & Corriander soup just in case TSHTF then top up the water supplies on Sunday from the free water tap in Buxton. Baden powell.............. Be Prepared

Yes brexit will not be as bad as the blitz.

Not sure that is much of a case in favour....

a reply to: Dwoodward85

It's not the worst case scenario. The document sent to the Scottish Government had a 'Base Scenario' and the Tories changed it to 'Reasonable worst case planning scenario' once pressed to release it.

Scottish version:



Boris version:

originally posted by: ScepticScot
Yes brexit will not be as bad as the blitz.

Not sure that is much of a case in favour....

Oh it could be especially if the French do Frexit when they see how we did it.............................. Then Germans got full control over all the original Third Reich zone

Just what they always wanted full control of eastern and central Europe. The slavs are either going to have to take it up the ass or rebel and call in the Ruskies, then we get dragged into it all over again

originally posted by: Dwoodward85

I understand and accept that people do not want Brexit to happen but if it doesn't if we have a second vote with the option to remain on it then democracy is forever damaged in the UK because 17 plus million people will most likely never vote again. Any second vote should be "Deal or No Deal" type voting and NOT have the option to remain it'll damage democracy in the UK, and we're already on thin ice with it as it is.

^^^That^^^ in my book is the scariest outcome of all.......

It has been bandied about by politicians of all colours particularly by labour

that we should have a second vote with a deal (on the lines of the one that

has already been rejected three times already which amounts to leaving in

name only) and REMAIN


To remain now would put us in a pariah position....... an an excuse for them to

push the euro (which we previously rejected) on to our monetary system.


Indeed a fate worse than death

a reply to: pikestaff

During the 1939-1945 conflict with Germany.......

a reply to: eletheia

Change is inevitable eletheia, you keep your Avatar the same, but your Tory rhetoric crap remains the same, your point is what exactly?

Life is not fair, but in any first-world nation such as our own, it should contain a modicum of equality.

And its not very equal now is it?

320,000 homeless souls are not in any better condition nor lightly to be any time soon.

The only people putting lives in danger are the rich Tory scum with austerity and who are after a hard no-deal Brexit.

"'The true measure of any society can be found in how it treats its most vulnerable members".

a reply to: RexKramerPRT

That is #ing awful.

how did they get away with doing that.

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

I'm surprised Trump has not given Boris a loan of his black Sharpie.

a reply to: RexKramerPRT

When the original came out the Scottish Tory leader (I forget her name at the moment) called it a worst case scenario, the government of the time did the same. There is no chance they could say "This is the most likely outcome of it" which is why it is called the Worst case. Titles don't mean all that much to be honest. They cannot say what will happen, they can only guess and gage. As a country we are doing better growth than Germany (at my last check) the big cheese of the EU power horse and that's even with all the BS in parliament. I do not believe Brexit will be the death nail in our country and while I'll accept that there may be some trouble for a few years whilst everything gels together and things get into routine this country will strive forward and continue on.

a reply to: eletheia

So true. My literal warning on social media time and time again. If we go back now, if we have a second vote and remain wins we will have lost all power in the EU, we would be walked on by every single other member state our standing in the world would be laughably bad. We would not be the country we are now. The EU would demand closer ties, they would force us into things that the people are against. So yeah any future vote needs to have NO Remain option. Deal or No Deal is the ticket I think any second vote should have.


Side note: If a second vote happens and Remain wins I will be calling on every single Leave politician and voter to refuse to accept the outcome, take it to court, demand a third vote, drag it out for three years and make sure we get a third vote. If the remainers can refuse to accept it then so can we. But there won't be another vote and we will leave with or without a deal.

The companies who are saying they have no clue what to do should prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Whatever their worst case ideas are they should prepare for it that way if it doesn't happen it doesn't happen but if it does then they are prepared for no deal.