Mathematical Reasoning Why Aliens Will Probably Never Visit

Theory on Alien Visitation, and why it will probably never happen

The Universe is Big. Really, really big. It’s so big, we’ve barely scratched the surface of what’s in it. It’s also old. Really, Really old. Latest estimates have the Universe at 13.8 billion years old. That’s an awfully large number of candles on birthday cakes.

Now, our own Solar System is about 4.6 billion years old. That’s also pretty old. Not as old as the universe of course, but still.

Let’s take a look at probability. Given our own Sun is 4.6 billion years old out of a 13.8 billion year old universe, that’s only 33.33 %, or about one third. We already missed two thirds of the time during which things existed in the Universe, before our sun was even created. That’s 9.2 billion years, it’s also a really, really long time during which many things could have happened.

In our own Solar system, there are 8 planets. Well, arguably 9, or 10, but who really cared about Pluto or Planet X? OK, I know that somewhere out there there is a “Flat Pluto Society” and there are a ton of people seemingly believing that Planet X is going to swoop by and wipe us all out one day, so I have to give those folks a quick nod hello.

So already, we’ve ignored 76% of the history of the Universe, and 7 out of 8 of the currently known planets for discounting intelligent life.

Now, there are a number of theories as to the age of the Earth. Rocks have been found dating back 4.3 billion years, which is the best empirical evidence we can use as to the current age of the planet. Some Christians will, of course, let you believe that the Earth is only 6,000 years old. They also believe in invisible beings in the sky that know when you've been good or bad, but think kids who believe in Santa are crazy, but I digress.

Out of that 4.3 billion years, humans have been around for 200,000 of them, and civilization has been around for about 6,000 years. Now, humans have been broadcasting radio signals into space for about 100 years, ever since Marconi’s first signal, and these have travelled about 200 light years.

So for about 100 years out of 4.3 billion, we’ve been telling the immediately local universe that there is intelligent life here. That’s 0.000000002 % of the time that the planet has been around, during whatever time someone who lives in the immediate vicinity may have been watching.

Out of the millions of species on Earth, only a handful have evolved to the point where they can use tools, and only ONE has above average intelligence useful for learning science and math. Out of the 7 billion people on the planet with this ability, only a few thousand of those people have the advanced knowledge to be able to send communications into space, or for that matter, spacecraft.

The universe is largely thought the be about 93 billion light years across. So for 0.000000002 % of the time that Earth has been around, civilization has been sending out a random signal to 0.0000000025% of the Universe, hoping someone will hear it at the particular time in their own development that we assume is similar to the 0.000000002% of the time that we’ve had communication ability.

And wondering why no one called back, or came to visit.

Appending thread title for accuracy:

"Mathematical reasoning why aliens will never visit."

"Mathematical reasoning, created by an individual who is part of a less than 1 Kardashev civilization, why intelligent life, as they know it, will never make an interstellar voyage to the planet of said less than 1 Kardashev civilization. This reasoning utilizes knowledge and engineering that they have developed and explores those options as if no others exist."




-=-= "There are other continents on this planet, but those people will probably never come here. Why not? Your arms would get tired after swimming a few miles. There are thousands of miles between them." =-=-

I appreciate your methematical reasoning. You sure do know a lot about interstellar travel options.

originally posted by: babybunnies
Theory on Alien Visitation, and why it will probably never happen

Aliens are already here.

Been here for a long time.

They don't visit you, because you aren't evolved enough yet.

Do you go to the jungle, visit the animals, and try to talk to them?

What if aliens created the human race and Earth is like some sort of eco-project of theirs? What if we are somewhere in the middle of a galactic empire and they have technology to travel 100 light years in an hour?

We don't know any of these things either way.
So all of that math is meaningless in the end, aside of the fact it's a fun mental exercise. Sure, it's enjoyable to ponder this stuff, but the minute you think you know something for sure is the minute you lost your way.

The reason I say that it's foolish is because we simply don't know many factors at play here, and we lack most if not the majority of all facts.

I could say that because there are so many UFO reports and videos, some from very credible sources, and because even I myself have had my fair share of encounters with these things, than it's clear to me there is a 100% chance they are already here and even interact with us.

But the only way to really know something of this nature is to see it yourself, so I'm not expecting anyone to take my word for it. I believe people should question things and seek their own answers.

And for what it's worth, the current estimates of the age of the Universe, it's size, and the age of Earth and all that are almost certainly inaccurate. There's no way to really tell how old this place is. We weren't around long enough to check and see if our theories about it's age held any water or if we had it all wrong.

Given the human track record and propensity for complete BS I'm going to gamble and say we are wrong about all this stuff and we have tons to learn still. I feel quite confident in my bet.

One problem that I see is you are looking at this through the lens of current technology.

Like your argument we haven't really scratched that topic as well. Who can imagine what that will bring us in the future?

There are counter claims and thus different ideas to every claim made on this subject, for example and if my understanding is correct, the estimation of stars in the observable universe is something like 1000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 stars, and even then some people say that's an under calculation.

With numbers like that and our limited knowledge, you could say that it's practically impossible for their not to be other life out there.

However, until more is known, it's a case of pick whichever theory you like best

There are no signals, we are alone.

With every year that passes the odds of having been or will be visited shorten and eventually those odds will arrive at odds on to 1/1000000+

So the answer is logically "Oh yes they will/have"

And you can say that with certainty for me!

a reply to: Zcustosmorum

He isn't saying that alien life DOESN'T exist outside of earth. He said that the likelihood of it evolving the capability to find and visit us is slim to none.

originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: Zcustosmorum

He isn't saying that alien life DOESN'T exist outside of earth. He said that the likelihood of it evolving the capability to find and visit us is slim to none.

There isn't enough information to even speculate that imo, the mathematical info from the OP I'm not arguing with, but there are just to many other factors to take into consideration, and we certainly don't have enough knowledge of the universe to even guess

it's supposedly really big, but that's assuming that the universe is expanding, which is an old concept already.

Go have a word with a certain Mr Drake.

a reply to: Zcustosmorum

There is always enough information to speculate. That's why this thread exists. It is also why you disagree. As it stands, Occam's Razor suggests the OP is correct, but like you said, there isn't enough information available to know definitively. Though I'm still going to side with the OP. The time frame window to detect and interact with humans is way too small to allow for aliens to have visited us. There are other reasonings I see this as well that the OP didn't get into, so without further evidence that will be how I feel about. Don't get me wrong though, I am VERY open to changing my mind if proven wrong, but I have high standards of evidence and meeting that evidence standard is going to be tough considering all the reasoning against it.

a reply to: babybunnies
The universe is so huge that even a 0.000000001% of stars with a civilisation results in a vast number of civilizations at any point in time. I prefer to go with the reason why we cant "hear anybody". As you rightly stated about our radio signals, they haven't got very far and the reverse is also true. Unless we have aliens next door we aren't going to know. The only way of detecting anyone is by a process that bypasses the speed of light restriction a "subspace" signal if you like (courtesy of star Trek). That would mean that only those civilizations with comms beyond EM can detect each other.

Now you absolutely must know where folks are before setting off. Even if we assume our own galaxy has millions of civilizations a random traveller jumping solar system to solar system in a day every day for a generation will accidentally come across NOBODY!!!! Better odds on winning the lottery.

So its not about durations and thus decreasing the number of civilizations its about the size of space is so vast that random detection of even billions of civilizations across the universe will fail....unless we can eavesdrop over "subspace".

a reply to: babybunnies

So what's the probability it never will happen? Stupid me to think I'd actually see some maths action after the title, I guess.

Well you did use big numbers...


Personally I feel there still is a huge possibility life elsewhere exists, but that's not the point you're questioning.
I also am a huge fan of folding spacetime and technologically increased telepathic skills, like many abductees/UFO-experiencers claim.
Which would mean consciousness to them is a form of energy and if you can penetrante spacetime at will, looking for this kind of energy, they were probably triangulating in on us for thousand of years.


Also you can tell the age of the univers, age of earth is a pure correlated guesstimate by it being exactly 1/3. If we assume and then keep on assuming on top of that how close to reality can that really be?

originally posted by: TinfoilTP
There are no signals, we are alone.

On the assumption that the only method of communicating is via EM.

One thing that should be noted is that finding our planet within the Solar System (let alone the wider universe) is pretty much like finding a needle in a haystack. As our own astronomers have found out, when you look at stars to check for orbiting planets, you find that that star's light blocks out just about everything in the surrounding area. Scientists have to use optical tricks (like tracking the shadow of a planet as it crosses in front of the star) to detect planets, but even then they cannot tell definitively if they have life or not. Granted telescoping abilities are always improving and I can't say what kind of viewing capabilities an advanced race would have available, but these are limits that we are currently experiencing so that civilization had to conquer them too.

But even if you know how to find planets with your telescope and even detect if they have life or not, you'd still be clueless trying to find our planet. The solar system is located near the end of one of the spiral arms of the galaxy. Earth and it's neighbors are pretty much the back woods of the galaxy. Then if you know where to look, even THAT may not help you as there is just SO SO SO SO SO SO SO much empty space between any given celestial body. There is so much space between stars that when our galaxy crashes into the Andromeda galaxy in a few billion years, locally (if the Earth still existed) we'd see very likely nothing unusual outside of the night sky getting steadily brighter over the last billion years or so.

Another aspect that would have to be conquered is space travel. As it stands nothing can go faster than the speed of light and if it has mass it can't even reach that velocity. It can only get infinitely closer. But even, hypothetically, if the speed of light can be conquered, that means a lifeform or its civilization could only visit surrounding stars to look for life before starting to encounter generation gaps back home. Now this may be solved with wormholes so this angle may ultimately be a moot point, but for now it is another mark against the idea that Earth has been visited in the past.

a reply to: babybunnies

Of course, you logical argument fails as it does not encompass the data from a few million UFO sightings which, logically, should be accounted for first as even one sighting, especially in the early days, would negate any armchair logic.

Are you aware that in 1947, during the early years of the visits from the UFOs that the US Army Air Corps sent their top intelligence division to discover the identity of the mysterious devices? A few months later the intelligence officers issued a report entitled "The Estimate of the Situation." The report went to Gen. Hoyt Vandenberg, the head of the air force. The report concluded that the flying saucers were alien craft. He rejected the report and ordered it to be burned. His argument was that he could not direct a national policy against the phenomena without proof. So the government has played that game for over half a century. And you continue it.

a reply to: Aliensun

Confirmation bias is a bitch. What makes you think those sightings should be taken as gospel? Just because there are so many of them? You do know if you want ufology to be taken more seriously, you need to implement actual scientific standards to your evidence collection right? Assuming that sightings (ie: anecdotes) are true just because there are a great many of them isn't really scientific at all.

They certainly serve as a great discussion point, but at no point should anyone be using them as a spring board to say that aliens exist. For one, all a UFO is is an unidentified flying aircraft. There were sightings in the USSR during the Cold War of a UFO for a while. Turns out it was just the US experimenting with its new stealth jets, and the USSR not being able to detect them on radar fueled the paranoia.