The easy pick here is Clinton v. Christie, with Clinton winning. I don't like any of the potential candidates much, and some of the other possible
contenders will be O'Malley, Patrick, Cuomo for the Dems and Paul, Ryan, Huntsmen, Carson, Perry, Rubio... probably missing a few for the Republicans
it's a big wide open field.
That's all assuming a continuation of current political trends, which may be wrong. As a previous post said, I could see a rise in movements against
the two parties. I'd highly doubt that it results in a successful presidential candidate, and I really hope some of these movements aren't the typical
explosion flame out. People get energized and think they can change the world in the month before the election. Doesn't work like that, it needs to be
a sustained and discipline effort that focuses as much on congress and state legislatures as it does POTUS.
I think Democrats will maintain a majority in the Senate after November, probably losing 4 or 5 seats to make it 52-48 or so. Which means politics
will basically function in the same way they have for the past two years.
How will it play out? Might be an unpopular forecast, and one I'm not really happy with either. But the way I see it is that Obama has already
bottomed out and trends up from here, the health care law covers a lot of people and Dems can make a case for a successful step in reform. The economy
basically mimics the last 3 years with slow improvements in unemployment and GDP, with a market slump mixed in (probably this year) that doesn't
cripple anything. Deficits go down, maybe even a balanced budget in 15-16.
All of that means Obama leaves on a high note and Clinton can exploit the trend of social liberalism and favorable demographics for the Democratic
party. She wins in a very similar fashion to the 2012 race. I mean, Christies is an alright Governor but I don't see him exciting people as a
President. The Republican primary will be brutal too and will probably hurt their candidate, and the fractured party is not healing by 2016.
With all of that said, people are going to get sick of Democrats eventually. If not in Clinton's first term, then her second. I do think there will be
some anti-party groundswell in 2016 but not enough to be very impactful. If not in her first term, then in her second is when we'll see a real
movement against the establishment. 2020-2024. These things take a lot of time and what is currently happening doesn't project to any type of new
style in politics by 2016. But the seed is there, and when people start understanding that there are alternatives to the government programs when it
comes to health care, poverty, and social issues - it'll burst.
Another thing is that Hillary isn't going to want to be just another president. She'll pursue some serious reforms in the way of liberal Democrats-
maybe single payer health care. This will cause blow back and fuel the fire for a new movement. I think it will be a mix that unites anti-capitalists
with anti-government people, sort of an all encompassing local self sufficiency. Put Occupy and the Tea Party in a blender. The only working
alternative to big government that solves the problems that people care about requires a cultural movement toward more community work to pick of the
slack from cutting tax funded programs. We'll take another market hit sometime 2016-2020, too many structural flaws in the economy, too many global
vulnerabilities. My bet is social instability in China leads to a contraction there, which hits us. All fueling the flame of the need to produce
Predictions are all nonsense.
edit on 6-1-2014 by SkullofThought because: (no reason given)