ALERT: Bitcoin Crashes 60% in one day after setting another record.

Originally posted by ChaoticOrder
reply to post by Ameilia

 

I can't help but feel sorry for those that got in on Bitcoins. Hopefully some of them were slick enough to realize the price was inflated and exit their positions in time.

lol... the price is still sitting around $180 per BTC right now, you don't need to feel sorry for anyone.

There was no reason it should have shot up to $260, the so called "crash" was simply a predictable correction to counter that sharp rise and bring it back to where it wanted to be.

edit on 11/4/2013 by ChaoticOrder because: (no reason given)

Haha exactly. He can feel sorry for the poor soul who was just on the bitcoin forums asking how to get into his wallet he had neglected... 25 bitcoins from when they were cheap as beans.

25 coins @ >$180USD... from an investment that they soon enough forgot about.

I'll just keep hoarding them at the moment. Kicking myself I didn't get in when they were starting tho.. Or stay in as I did try.

so what is the point in using bitcoins if the price is so up and down all the time, the dollar does not change like that, you dont go to the store today and bread is $2 then you go tomorrow and its $12 or $.24 all the sudden... So what is the point, if its only there to be used so that you can trade it around as a commodity or something then that makes no sense.

I dont see the upside for BC it makes no sense, and I don't know why everyone says it cant be manipulated when it obviously can and that it cant be hacked like someone would tell you if it was since they aren't required to or that people cant just create there own coins just like the fed prints money like water.

Someone is getting the real money and giving you a worthless digital currency backed by nothing, no one is even required to give you cash back i fyou want to cash out your coins everyone could just say pfft screw bitcoins it fluctuates to much and I am out of the game.. Then you have all these bitcoins and what to do with them besides shove them up you butthole?

The only positive about the the usd is that even if the gov changes the currency they will have to convert your usd to the new currency they cant just be like oh yah sorry everyone now has $0 good luck. As well as its backed and insured with FDIC so while it is also a fiat currency and backed by nothing but the gov at least you have some backup compared to bitcoins which is backed by nothing and no one.

You can also bet easily and I will bet with you all day long that no mainstream websites will ever take bitcoins as their currency if they take your coins for a $500 item one day and the next day the bitcoin drops like it did then they lose money on the item they just sold you because that makes no sense.. Since you cant do an immediate usd conversion from BC it would make no sense to operate in that currency.

reply to post by dc4lifeskater

The function of money is 1) a medium of exchange; 2) a measure of value and 3) a store of value. But given the extreme volatility of bitcoin it does not fit the bill for a "stable" store of value. Given the artificial capped supply it was doomed from the drawing board (yes the limited supply makes for a bull market run but long term it is just not feasible as money).

reply to post by CosmicCitizen


Lol it appears Mt. Gox has halted all trading for the next 12 hours to let the market "cool down".
support.mtgox.com...


reply to post by dc4lifeskater

So what is the point, if its only there to be used so that you can trade it around as a commodity or something then that makes no sense.

Then you may as well say the gold standard made no sense. "Oh it's deflationary", "oh the gold market is too volatile", etc, etc. Anyway bitcoin is too new to even be considered as a mainstream national currency, it will be a long time before the market becomes stable enough, but it will eventually happen. In the mean time that doesn't nullify it's use as a decentralized internet currency or investment tool. Take or leave it.

reply to post by dc4lifeskater

Good point. Let's say a car dealer took bitcoins for the sale of a $40,000 car at btc 220 and the next day the btc value dropped to btc 110 - that would be like selling the car for $20,000! Well below his cost and he could not afford to take that risk (especially in a volatile market like this) unless a) he immediately converted his btc back to cash (usd) or he was somehow able to hedge it by shorting btc (but that could create margin problems if btc continued up). Ergo, the only way it would be viable would be to convert it back to cash and I mean right away not the next day or at the end of the week.

reply to post by CosmicCitizen

Good point. Let's say a car dealer took bitcoins for the sale of a $40,000 car at btc 220 and the next day the btc value dropped to btc 110 - that would be like selling the car for $20,000!

The long term trend of bitcoin is one of deflation due to the demand out-pacing the growth in the money supply. It would not "be like selling the car" unless he sold the freaking car, which is exactly the same as panicking despite the long term trend of bitcoin to rise against all odds. Bitcoin may be very unstable in the short term but over the long term it's fairly predictable. There have been countless "bumps in the road" like this one but they never set us back very long. Keeping in mind that the US dollar has lost more than 95% of its purchasing power since 1913 and the implementation of the Federal Reserve, I will ask you the same question I asked alfa1:

Would you prefer a currency which constantly loses value year after year but has a low level of volatility on a day to day basis, or would you prefer a currency which constantly increases in value year after year but has a high level of volatility on a day to day basis?

Originally posted by CosmicCitizen
reply to post by ChaoticOrder

 

The speed up (unsupported) is one reason that prices "crash" so quickly vs a controlled correction and return to the point of initiation of the hyperbolic rise.

Current Elliott Wave assessment: A wave down to 105~; a:B back to 200~ and now nearing completion of b:B in the low 100s...this should be followed by another attempt at the upper 100s for c:B (completing the B wave counter trend move) where it should fail and then drop to lower lows for the move in the C wave (these waves are often the worst)....The downside target is 70 +/-20.

edit on 11-4-2013 by CosmicCitizen because: (no reason given)

unless the algorithms are written completely different, maybe to benefit the few owners or original investors in bitcoin itself.....nah...wouldn't happen in a million years, right?...right?

reply to post by jimmyx

unless the algorithms are written completely different, maybe to benefit the few owners or original investors in bitcoin itself.....nah...wouldn't happen in a million years, right?...right?

We are talking about an independent 3rd party exchange right now, it has nothing do with the actual bitcoin network and it is coded by different people.

reply to post by ChaoticOrder

Being a stateless alternative to fiat currency the bitcoin concept has merit but the fact that the supply is artificially limited (11MM current supply and capped at 21MM) is deflationary (much like the gold standard was altho the gold supply can be incrementally increased annually and is much greater to begin with) and will result in a classic "liquidity trap" that is dysfunctional to its viability as a day to day currency. Yes the US Dollar has lost 97% of its value since 1900 (95% since 1913) but that has been orderly.....we dont see commodity and consumer goods doubling and halfing overnight due to the exchange rate. Wages and salaries have also gone up by a commensurate amount.

reply to post by CosmicCitizen

much like the gold standard was altho the gold supply can be incrementally increased annually and is much greater to begin with

The gold supply cannot be incrementally increased, there is a finite amount of gold on the planet. To increase the gold supply we must mine more gold, and the more we mine the harder it gets to find. This is the exact same thing with bitcoin, it even gets harder and harder to "mine" new bitcoins as time goes by. And the gold supply is not "much larger", in reality there are 2.1 quadrillion units within the bitcoin system because each bitcoin is divisible up to 8 decimal places. There are really 100 million single units that make up each bitcoin. This ensures sufficient granularity of the money supply.

Yes the US Dollar has lost 97% of its value since 1900 (95% since 1913) but that has been orderly

Being consistent in the way it sucks doesn't make it desirable or good as a currency.

Wages and salaries have also gone up by a commensurate amount.

Baloney. Commodity prices rise nearly every week now yet I don't see my wages rising at the same rate, that's the entire scam of inflation. The Federal Reserve is now printing 85 billion dollars per month in their ridiculous infinite QE scheme, there's no way wages will keep up with the inflation that causes.

There is speculation circulating that TPTB orchestrated this by buying up tons of Bitcoins with money fresh of their printing presses.

Bitcoin is a direct threat to the hegemony that the central banks have over currency.

The issue / question I have with Bitcoin revolves around its electronic basis.

Governments have shown some level of power to censor, limit or shut down the internet. It probably a decent assumption that the larger, more prosperous nations may have fairly extensive powers at their disposal in this area.

Of course, currency moves around electronically all the time. But, that is currency that is "government approved / sanctioned"

What is to stop a country (or countries) from considering Bitcoin a threat and just making it go *poof* via their control over the net?

reply to post by ChaoticOrder

"Roughly" on those earnings as lower income (ie minimum wage) has not kept pace but earnings at the upper end have exceeded commodity price increases. Overall in 1975 for example the average household income was about $10,300~ and in 2010 it was about $50,500 (probably $52-3K now). that is an increase of 5 fold. Back then you could buy a new (non luxury model) new car for about $3-4K and today it will cost you about 5x that. Compared to the agricultural commodity peak in 1974 we are lower now than most (except for rice, soybeans and a few others). In terms of gold and silver tho we are much higher (eg, gold started near $200 when Americans could own it again in 1974 and is now over 7.5x that).

reply to post by MystikMushroom

Agreed on both points....they probably ran it up to engineer this crash. The fact that it fell back below support at 140~150 so easily tells me that this could be the top and not just a "correction". Time will tell but I would not be surprised to see it trade around 70 before another rally attempt over 200-210 and then we may end up at "10 cents on the dollar" (26.5 btc from the current high).

Originally posted by Ameilia
reply to post by CosmicCitizen

 

But, but, but....Bitcoin was supposed to be immune to problems like this as such an extraordinary alternative to the dollar.

MBS were upposed to be immune to problems like this as such an extraordinary alternative to stocks.

Originally posted by MystikMushroom
There is speculation circulating that TPTB orchestrated this by buying up tons of Bitcoins with money fresh of their printing presses.

Bitcoin is a direct threat to the hegemony that the central banks have over currency.

If you do a little googling, there have been apparently efforts to organize an artificial crash with the purpose to buy cheap and then sell when it rebounds, through some sort of sophisticated manipulation. TPTB had nothing to do with these efforts. Think of it, the amount of money that could be made (and was probably) was just staggering.

reply to post by ChaoticOrder

You are quite knowledgeable about the workings of bitcoin....I am just a chartist or technical analyst (altho I have an educational background in economics as well). You are correct that there is a finite amount of gold on the earth but the "gold supply" is the amount mined and refined, by definition. FWIW, 80% of all gold produced has happened since 1910 and 50% of all gold produced has occurred since 1967. Apparently mining techniques are more efficient than they used to be (where they can get gold out of dirt and not just find nuggets). The trend of annual and cumulative gold production has been increasing not decreasing (with the exception of south africa which has peaked out). www.goldsheetlinks.com...

reply to post by buddhasystem

It was a billion dollar swing in value.

Mike Adams article at Natural News


Please explain to me then what this guys prediction is all about. And don't give me any of that "oh that's Natural News" rubbish. If you want any more truth about what's gonna happen with bitcoin and other alternative, decentralised currencies then check out the articles on them at The Daily Bell or The New American.


Undermining Bitcoin


The Pure Fiat Con


Looming Bitcoin crash?

A company called Butterfly Labs, which is a fraud from what I read, is selling mining hardware that increases the reward by solving more hashes than most of the competing miners. All this does is increase the difficulty as more bit coins are produced, which requires higher powered hardware to get the same results in the future. The hardware is not cheap, either.

There is quite a bit of controversy over bit-coins. It is close to becoming illegal and if so, all those thousands spent on mining hardware will be for worthless data. Also, has anyone traded real currency for bit coin with Mt. Gox? Are they fair and reliable. Maybe I will buy some if the price drops.

For those interested in mining bit coin and have an above average video card can get a wallet and mine from their desktop system. Although very slow, 1 bit coin could possibly be earned after a few months of hash solving. The only problem with that is it taxes the video cards GPU and not much else can be run on the systems. Only non graphic intensive software. Is it worth it?