Don't attack Iran, Russia starkly warns Israel and U.S., page 5

reply to post by Swills

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With their rethoric concerning Israel Iran is not helping itself either. There are people in the west who seek to find a betterment of the status of Arabs in Israel. Iran could join those efforts and recognize Israel.

reply to post by Swills

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Not only does Russia not believe US and Israeli politicians about Iran's supposed nuke weapon program

Russia is part of both NPT and IAEA. Which makes that statement quite false, because they are as much into it as any other Western country.

If they don't "believe", then they don't believe their own words.

What you should have said, in my opinion, is that Russia does not share the opinion on the benefits of a preemptive strike, or even any sort of armed confrontation.

And you should have also mentioned that Russia has warned Iran several times not to get involved in any sort of bad behavior regarding their nuclear program.

In fact, Russia has warned Iran to suspend their nuclear program in 2006.

Russia warns Iran over deadline

Russia has urged Iran to heed a UN Security Council resolution giving Tehran until the end of the month to suspend uranium enrichment.

The UN Security Council has given Tehran until 31 August 2006 to stop nuclear activities, or face possible sanctions.

Russia and China, which have strong commercial ties with Iran, previously resisted Western calls for sanctions.

Russia's foreign ministry said if Iran heeded the calls, then no further measures from the UN Security Council would be required.

However, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said he would not bow to "the language of force and threats".

Speaking at a rally in the country's north, he said Iran had the right to use nuclear technology to produce fuel.

"The Iranian people see taking advantage of technology to produce nuclear fuel for peaceful purposes as their right," Mr Ahmadinejad told a crowd in the town of Bojnurd.

"Those who think they can use the language of threats and force against Iran are mistaken."

"If they don't realise that now, one day they will learn it the hard way," he added.

People often forget about the past.

but America's and Israel's intelligence communities (aka, the CIA, Mossad, and friends) also confirm Iran has no nuke, isn't building a nuke and doesn't plan on building a nuke.

They said they have no proof, that is not the same as saying they are sure Iran won't make the decision, or isn't actually doing it secretly.

This article is from 2010:

Iran has not provided the necessary co-operation to permit the agency to confirm that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities.

Iran is not implementing the requirements contained in the relevant resolutions of the board of governors and the security council... which are essential to building confidence in the exclusively peaceful purpose of its nuclear programme and to resolve outstanding questions.

In particular, Iran needs to co-operate in clarifying outstanding issues which give rise to concerns about possible military dimensions to Iran's nuclear programme.

Contrary to the relevant resolutions of the board of governors and the security council (*in which Russia is included*), Iran has continued with the operation of PFEP and FEP at Natanz, and the construction of a new enrichment plant at Fordow. Iran has also announced the intention to build 10 new enrichment plants.

Contrary to the relevant resolutions of the board of governors and the security council, Iran has also continued with the construction of the IR-40 reactor and related heavy water activities. The agency has not been permitted to take samples of the heavy water which is stored at UCF, and has not been provided with access to the heavy water production plant.

IAEA report on Iran nuclear programme

THESE are the problems with Iran. All the other talk is background noise covering the truth, regarding both sides of the argument.

I would like to give another source for the intelligence claims being made regarding Iran and Western intelligence agencies.

I will quote the most important bits (in my opinion):

WASHINGTON — While American spy agencies have believed that the Iranians halted efforts to build a nuclear bomb back in 2003, the difficulty in assessing the government’s ambitions was evident two years ago, when what appeared to be alarming new intelligence emerged, according to current and former United States officials.

This point alone will make a lot of people uncomfortable, since many ATS members assume that Iran never wanted a nuclear weapon.

They did, at least once.

Intercepted communications of Iranian officials discussing their nuclear program raised concerns that the country’s leaders had decided to revive efforts to develop a weapon, intelligence officials said.

That, along with a stream of other information, set off an intensive review and delayed publication of the 2010 National Intelligence Estimate, a classified report reflecting the consensus of analysts from 16 agencies. But in the end, they deemed the intercepts and other evidence unpersuasive, and they stuck to their longstanding conclusion.

It's not even a matter of Iran talking about it or not. It's a matter of the agencies assuming that those interceptions weren't strong enough to be used publicly. I assume that it was meant to protect the means in which they were obtained...

The article then states that the agencies do not believe Iran has restarted the program. However, the following quote is rather important to end the certainty in which many ATS members base their opinion that Iran does not constitute a possible threat:

Much of what analysts sift through are shards of information that are ambiguous or incomplete, sometimes not up to date, and that typically offer more insight about what the Iranians are not doing than evidence of what they are up to.

As a result, officials caution that they cannot offer certainty. “I’d say that I have about 75 percent confidence in the assessment that they haven’t restarted the program,” said one former senior intelligence official.

Another former intelligence official said: “Iran is the hardest intelligence target there is. It is harder by far than North Korea.

I admit that 75% certainty is a lot, or at least enough for some people to consider that Iran isn't actively pursuing a nuclear weapon. However, it's up to the individual members to question them-selfs if those 25% missing are worth taking the risk or not.

It's also interesting to note the reference to North Korea, going as far as admitting that spying on Iran is harder than spying North Korea. Maybe something to do with the lack of technology in NK? Having cellphones, computers and internet connections can be a hazard, but a country with access to technology will also have access to counter-measures.

The article then states several arguments in favor and against Iran, where the majority of the consensus is that Iran did in fact halt their nuclear weapons program.

However, in the name of "deny ignorance" and flow of good and valuable information, I will quote a very important piece of information, that explains to a lot of people why it is hard to understand Iran possible nuclear ambitions(I hope that members use this info under the right context):

The United States and Israel share intelligence on Iran, American officials said. For its spying efforts, Israel relies in part on an Iranian exile group that is labeled a terrorist organization by the United States, the Mujahedeen Khalq, or M.E.K., which is based in Iraq. The Israelis have also developed close ties in the semiautonomous region of Kurdistan in northern Iraq, and they are believed to use Kurdish agents who can move back and forth across the border into Iran.

American intelligence officials, however, are wary of relying on information from an opposition group like the M.E.K., particularly after their experience in Iraq of relying on flawed information provided by the Iraqi National Congress, an exile group run by Ahmad Chalabi.

“I’m very suspicious of anything that the M.E.K. provides,” said David A. Kay, who led the C.I.A.’s fruitless effort to find weapons program in Iraq. “We all dealt with the Chalabis of the world once.”

Source (NYtimes)

I hope this helps further debate.

reply to post by Wonderer2012

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I don't see how russia has a choice in the matter. They are a post korean war military, not a 21st century military. What's next? Ethiopia threatening us? So what? Russia is a joke, they have no power in the modern world, they couldn't even defeat stone aged afghanistan during their attempted occupation, using absolutely brutal tactics, completely unconcerned in any way about casualties, the afghans or russias.

If I was them I would just STFU! Before the U.S. decides to entervene the next time they attack georgia for no reason.

reply to post by inverslyproportional

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Never ever underestimate Russia. They weapons might be old but a nuke stay a nuke it will and can fry your arse in your cosy basement in dreamland. That is where you are right, brainwashed, obamaland

reply to post by DakotaCensus

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I just pray to God our country does not do something stupid, Like the WMD in Iraq!

reply to post by GarrusVasNormandy

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But while I commend you for your efforts and feel that you try to bring sound discussion into this, I simply do not believe that one can simply choose to believe those statements. We are talking about agencies who works for the governments that really would like Iran to take a bad step.
A sort of slow wiggle towards self-confirming what we "think" might be going on, and that is dangerous. Actions based on intel or fabricated intel has gotten the US into a nasty mess before.
A we know that most of those agencies receive a vast amount of funding to their psy-op programs which also consists of units who create propaganda and work at destabilising nations.

Now, when we know those facts, it is bloody hard seeing the noble work in their so-called intercepted intel.

Notice, I'm not saying they are wrong, I'm saying it's bloody hard believing they are honest.

reply to post by flice

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But while I commend you for your efforts and feel that you try to bring sound discussion into this, I simply do not believe that one can simply choose to believe those statements.

Thank you.

I prefer to leave my belief power to thing's that I value more than the word of politicians or gov. spokesmen.

However, I believe that we should trust, until proven false. I do understand why people don't make the same decision as I do, but this method hasn't failed me yet. But then again, I'm not afraid of being wrong, or being proven wrong.

I believe that in order to discuss politics and realities associated with it, one must listen to what they are saying, and try to understand "the game". Only after you understand it, will you know when to yell "illegal move!". (Not addressing you personally)

We are talking about agencies who works for the governments that really would like Iran to take a bad step.

Yes, and what you are saying is true. But in this specific case, it's actually the intel department who is saying for everyone to calm down, almost reassuring that if something wrong is happening, they will know it.

The NIE report is a meeting point with information from 16 intel agencies, I believe. Maybe that can give some security in relation to their assessments? For instance, if Israel intel says that Iran is 100 feet tall, and the CIA/whatever says it's 1 inch tall, the consensus might be found somewhere in the middle.

I'm just assuming, however.

Actions based on intel or fabricated intel has gotten the US into a nasty mess before.
A we know that most of those agencies receive a vast amount of funding to their psy-op programs which also consists of units who create propaganda and work at destabilising nations.

From what you said in this paragraph I have to ask to which post of mine you are referring to.

I ask you this because in the second, I quoted the following information:

American intelligence officials, however, are wary of relying on information from an opposition group like the M.E.K., particularly after their experience in Iraq of relying on flawed information provided by the Iraqi National Congress, an exile group run by Ahmad Chalabi.

“I’m very suspicious of anything that the M.E.K. provides,” said David A. Kay, who led the C.I.A.’s fruitless effort to find weapons program in Iraq. “We all dealt with the Chalabis of the world once.”

Those officials are - or were - from the CIA.

I'm not quoting this again to say that you are wrong, I'm actually giving you a source for the comments you made. Making hard decisions on dubious intel has been proven to be a very dangerous thing to do.

Now, when we know those facts, it is bloody hard seeing the noble work in their so-called intercepted intel.

Notice, I'm not saying they are wrong, I'm saying it's bloody hard believing they are honest.

In my opinion, intelligence agencies aren't honest in their methods, and often they cross lines that shouldn't be touched. However, I'm sure we can find several cases in History where those same agencies saved a lot of people.

reply to post by buster2010

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the iranians would not use a nuke on jerusalem.

there would be alternative targets, and detonation methods, that would accomplish

any nefarious goals.

nothing is crystal clear a priori.

the only clear thing now is the potential for disaster.

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