Responding to OP:
It is very unlikely that Quebec will vote in favor of sovereignty if there is another referendum.
Only 28% of Quebec residents favor sovereignty.
Since the last election, where the BQ was virtually wiped out, the new 2-party paradigm (Conservative vs NDP) at the federal level gives Quebec
(currently backing the NDP) a much greater level of influence over the federal government. They can play kingmaker, like they used to before the BQ.
This makes sovereignty less popular. It's true that the PQ is re-surging in Quebec, but I guarantee you they will tone down their rhetoric if they
form government. Quebec has a pretty sweet deal in confederation. It's fine for them to wave the sovreigntest flag and rattle sabers every now and
then to cut a better deal with the feds, but they'd be giving up too much to actually go through with it.
On top of that, there is the problem of Northern Quebec, where First Nations make up the majority of the population, and who are almost 100% opposed
to separation. Leaders of Quebec First Nations have said over and over again that they will fight to remain in Canada. And don't forget that Quebec
Hydro is the biggest source of independent revenue for the Quebec government, and most of those hydro plants are in First Nations territory, cut off
from the rest of the province, and susceptible to sabotage.
Now, you might be thinking that this would make separation more exciting, but in reality it makes it impossible. The constitutionality of sovereignty
is far from settled, and there is International Law to consider as well. Point being, even if they wanted to, Quebec couldn't separate. And as it is,
the vast majority don't even want to. Canada is leading developed nations in recovery from the recession, and they know that.
Simply put, it's not going to happen.
This article provides some different poll numbers, which show a much higher % of people supporting separation. I didn't realize how much sovereignty
sentiment had developed in the last year. Huh.
I still think it's highly unlikely, however.
edit on 2-9-2012 by RedBird because: (no reason given)