Originally posted by ExNihilo
this thread is not about arguing if Québec should separate or not but what would the implications be if it did?
1) The immediate death of the Quebec economy.
Upon exiting Canada, Quebec exits every trade pact negotiated by the federal government. Might take a few years to get established with the WTO, after
the UN recognition of course. In the mean time, Quebec has no economic protection, no bargaining strength, no international credit, and no means of
extracting debt money from creditors.
Furthermore, Quebec will lose the billions invested in Quebec based R&D, industry loans, credit guarantees - all of the things that have supported the
growth of the Quebec economy since the end of the 2nd world war.
Foreign investment will be the key to survival - but with a population of only 8 million, there's not much of a point in training the mandatory
french speaking staff. Much easier to just export goods to Quebec - and much more profitable, because they can't complain to the WTO about price
gouging, unfair trade practices (no trade pacts), and so on. Look forward to $5.00/liter gas, for example - and you *know* they'll charge it if they
can even slightly get away with it.
And then of course there's the fact that you're currently running a 20 billion dollar trade deficit and have a public debt in excess of $200 billion
- most of which is to the Government of Canada. Plus your share of the Canadian National Debt, which will surely be demanded
2) The immediate isolation of Quebec from the rest of the world.
The Canadian government is currently responsible for the operation and control of Quebec's international borders and points of entry (airports, port
facilities). Until Quebec can rectify that situation with the TSA, DHS, and a bunch of other US agencies, look forward to at least a year of the US
border being sealed and heavily patrolled. Likewise, with no oversight from Transport Canada, no international flights from Quebec will be possible
until infrastructure, treaties and other international agreements are in place.
Air Canada will see no more subsidy money for flights inside Quebec, so look forward to paying whatever the hell they want you to pay to get around.
There is no reason to assume that the borders with the rest of Canada will remain as open as they are today. You can expect that there will be a lot
of public pressure from the rest of Canada to adopt a system similar to the one currently in operation with the USA. Minus the trade agreements, at
least for the first few years. After all, with no security in place at the various ports, who can be sure that the terrorists aren't going to storm
in to North America via Quebec?
3) Loss of protection
The Canadian military will be gone completely overnight. Likewise the RCMP and CSIS. Police funding will dry up with the transfer payments. And
remember - no one's opening the borders until you've got your policing under control.
4) Loss of territory.
This is a big one, and the one that no one in Quebec really wants to face up to. Canada has no obligation to release the Province of Quebec as it
stands to a new, independent Quebec. the most likeley scenerio is that Quebec will be able to negotiate for a package slightly larger than what was
Quebec's at Confederation - minus the St Lawrence Seaway (crown possession, sorry.). Native land claims will need to be adressed within that smaller
package of land as well. With no military to stop the Canadian Government, look forward to pretty much everything north of Chibougamau being occupied
and nationalized, followed by an open invitation to settle things at the Hague, once your membership in the ICJ has been confirmed, of course.
5) The extinction of Quebec's distinct culture inside of a generation.
Currently the industries and agencies that exist solely to promote Quebec culture in and out of Quebec are funded directly or indirectly by the
Canadian government. With Quebec out of Canada, that funding will vanish - and a population of 8 million simply is not enough to warrant special
attention from any outside investor. Look forward to TV dominated by dubbed US sitcoms (all your stations will be able to afford), the death of your
film industry, and the further death of Quebec music. Canadians will no longer feel the need to study French in schools, and will turn their attention
to more relevant global languages - Chinese and Spanish, more than likely. With a lack of french speaking trade partners, Quebec schools will be
forced to put more emphasis on learning English to compete - or did you think the Americans were going to learn French all of a sudden? Say goodbye to
Federal museum funding, and everything else that props up Quebec culture in and out of Quebec.
Those are the immediate implications that I can think of, off the top of my head.
Separation is a suicide worthy of a Darwin Award.