The end of Assad. Strategic outlook

The latest military developments in Syria are now generally understood as ushering in a new phase in the Syrian conflict. What’s less observed is that the minority Alawite regime’s mass killings of Sunnis and the intense fighting around the cities of Homs and Hama also seem to replicate significant moments of Syrian history. Not to forget the latest battles inside Damascus.



Specifically, Bashar al-Assad’s campaign against his Sunni adversaries recalls the strategy employed by the Crusaders, as invading European armies fortified themselves against various Muslim coalitions in the Levant, from the 12th to the 13th century. Indeed, the Crusader castles dotting the Western part of Syria may give us some sort of insight into the regime’s military thinking, and perhaps a preview of its future.

Although Syria’s present dictator may still think he can retake control of the whole country, the nature and locations of the fighting indicate that the regime is also preparing a Plan B: to consolidate the traditional Alawite stronghold in northwest Syria.



There, Assad loyalists can dig in and conduct a long protracted fight, as they begin to lose the ability to hold territory in the interior.
The hottest flashpoints in the current stage of the conflict reveal a specific sectarian geography. They form the eastern frontier of the Alawite heartland along a north-south meridian stretching from Jisr al-Shoughour near the border with Turkey, to Tal Kalakh, on the border with Lebanon. To establish its control over this redoubt, the regime must secure access points into this territory, and clear all hostile pockets within it and along its perimeter, which are dotted with Sunni villages uncomfortably adjacent to Alawite ones.




The strategic dilemmas facing Assad, as he seeks to carve out and then defend an Alawite enclave, are the same that the Crusaders faced. Syria’s coastal region was a critical route for armies advancing from the north and south, which the Crusaders needed to control in order to secure territorial continuity as well as communication and logistical lines between their various kingdoms in the Levant.

These lines were vulnerable to attacks from the Syrian interior, especially at key corridors and access points. To deal with this challenge, the Crusaders established a series of massive fortifications that straddled the length of the coast and the surrounding hills to the east.

One of these Crusader citadels, Saladdin Castle, lies just east of the aforementioned al-Haffeh, high up on a ridge in the mountains. Another is the Krak des Chevaliers, west of Homs and just north of the village of Tal Kalakh. These frontier defenses served to protect the Crusaders against foes from the Syrian interior looking to penetrate the coastal region.

The Assad regime has tried to set up a buffer between the interior and the coastal region in order to prevent similar incursions. Al-Haffeh, for instance, was vulnerable to a rebel group based in the Ghab plain in the eastern foothills of the Alawite mountains, northwest of Hama. From here on the question for the rest of the world remains; if cornered and desperate enough, will Assad use the WMD:s through the aid of his loyal alawites whom fear a complete slaughter of their entire tribe once Damascus and the rest of Syria has fallen into the hands of the FSA or will he flee to Russia to evade the fate of his once dictator and friend Ghadaffi?

We will know in the months ahead. Current ETA to complete collapse of the regime is 90 days +-30 days depending on whether he uses his current stock of WMD or not.


Sources:

Stratfor Intel
AP
German ARD
Militärischer Abschirmdienst
Google Maps
hurriyet daily news
stratrisks

Excellent post OP, it sheds light into the military thinking of the falling regime.

Star and flag well deserved for this insightful well presented thread.

The 90 day outlook is confusing, probably depending on the definition of what constitutes the actual fall of the regime. For instance, once the Capital falls and the rebels openly operate out of there, the airports will be used to fully supply them. These old time mountain fortresses will not be significant militarily any longer to block the traffic to them. They will just be hidouts that air traffic will go around.

reply to post by johncarter


Assad will take his country back whether you like it or not. If he was going to hand it over to terrorists, he would of long ago The terrorists should stop hiding among the population, then Assad wouldn't have to shell cities.

ATTENTION!

Address the topic - The end of Assad. Strategic outlook - not each other.

Thanks OP for the background write up info on what that HumanSlayer is and actually planning way in advance to subjugate a People. Many might have missed it and fooled by some hell bent hatred of USA warped minded folks whom will rewrite history to ensure everyone else will take the blame except for their own fallen idols.

The Chemical weapons that the beast Assad possesses is indeed a grave concern. He is no different from any other tyrants throughout the course of human civilisation, prepared to destroy all life if he alone doesn't get his way.

He had not listen to the world, nor even to his supporters Putin and the China CCP govt. The deluded that is him only believes in himself. When the end comes, he himself will become the suicide bomber, something the free world, CCP govt and Putin, whom had experienced such manics before, know well.

This is the reason why humanity CANNOT let tyrants and dictators own WMDs. In their moments of madness, all life will be wiped out.

He and his bunch of wild animals need to be taken out quickly, or there we be nothing left in Syria as well as neighbouring countries when the wind and jet streams bring those chemicals there as the world rotates. One WMD would'nt do much. But hey's there's a hell lot of a stockpile there. Multiples of it blowing up, and all life will be in deep sh*t.

China CCP govt and Putin had screwed us all. The Syrian affair could have ended peacefully and earlier...but dragged on long............ The FULL end is looking more predictable now.....

Originally posted by kosmicjack
ATTENTION!

Address the topic - The end of Assad. Strategic outlook - not each other.

Part of the post is the poster. And we're not allowed to discuss that?

How about the fact he's copied and pasted from here?

www.weeklystandard.com...

reply to post by SeekerofTruth101




Modern chemical weapons are increasingly sophisticated and complex. Soldiers today have to contend with a variety of deadly chemicals ranging from nerve agents to blister agents. One of the most deadly chemical weapons is sarin gas.

Five hundred times more lethal than cyanide, sarin attacks the nervous system and has been known to kill people less than one minute after coming into contact with the gas.
The United Nations has identified about 70 different chemicals that can be used as weapons in modern combat scenarios. The most deadly chemical weapons are classified as "Lethal Unitary Chemical Agents and Munitions." These are the most hazardous weaponized chemicals.

The relocation of Syria’s undeclared chemical stockpile, which reportedly includes mustard gas as well as nerve agents such as Sarin, Tabun and VX, means Damascus is trying to protect its arsenal from more dangerous elements.
It is dispersed and under the control of a dedicated army unit that has a high degree of loyalty to the regime and is commanded by senior Alawites [Assad's sect].


U.S. Army symbol for chemical weapons.


wmdawareness.org writes:

Chemical weapons can be split into four main categories – each has a different effect.

• Vesicants (including sulphur mustard): Causes blisters and burning of the skin, eyes, throat and lungs. Death can result from the lungs filling with fluid. Can cause blindness. Sulphur mustard can cause cancers, and could also cause birth defects and cancers including leukaemia in the offspring of those exposed.

• Choking Agents (including chlorine and phosgene): Irritate the eyes, throat and lungs. Death can result from the lungs filling with fluid. • Blood Agents: Stop oxygen getting to tissue and to vital organs.

• Nerve Agents: The most dangerous and fatal in even very small amounts. Cause convulsions and death by respiratory paralysis. Can be absorbed through the skin and penetrates clothing.

reply to post by khimbar


ATS has become a disinformation and cointelpro website.Not a wonder that every independent minded person is being banned from ATS.

reply to post by johncarter


And that's copied and pasted from here.

usmilitary.about.com...

Originally posted by TinfoilTP
Excellent post OP, it sheds light into the military thinking of the falling regime.

Star and flag well deserved for this insightful well presented thread.

Yes he's done a lovely copy and paste from the Standard.

reply to post by johncarter


A respected member of enduringamerica have stated the following.

On the claims of the former Syrian Ambassador to Iraq, I would treat them with caution. It is quite common for defectors to make big claims and/or the media to seek big headlines with such claims.


On Tremseh, I would start with the names of the 103 victims that have been posted and recognise that there may be dozens of other victims who have not yet been identified. A minority of these may have been from the small Free Syrian Army unit in the town, but I believe most --- based on witness reports --- are civilians.

So just because a defector claimed Assad is and will use chemical weapons on Syrians doesn't make it the truth.

Just because the defector claims on a news outlet that Assad was the behind the terrorist attack in Damascus , it doesn't make it the truth, much like the narrative and claims that Iran will build a nuke in two years.

There is some EXTREME shilling for FSA going on ATS today, and its insulting to the intelligence of level-headed,open minded members on ATS.

reply to post by johncarter


Thanks for the futher info on the types of chem weapons avaliable in Syria and to the HumanSlayer Assad today. Much more disconcerting than words can ever write, even as those HumanSlayer supporters sought to condemn and distract the more rational minds on ATS with their posts, and probably using other nicks to support their beliefs, nothing new.

Just heard on the news that the HumanSlayer supporter Putin once again had rebuff international FREE world and UN Annan's efforts for a compromise to join in, be a responsible member of the Human Race that Putin, the illegitimate election fraudster of the Russian People that the cold war killer ex-KGB agent Putin is.

This senile old fool and his bunch of corrupt rubber stamping parliament drunk on oil wealth knows not how critical the situation had became,

The end for the beast Assad is near, and so too a significant portion of mankind when the chemical weapons all blows up enmass.

What that idiotic relic of the past Putin is proposing for transitional govt of which Assad will be involved. But WHICH court, throughtout the course of human civilisation, would ever ALLOW a murderer to be the judge and jury???

If it was done in the early days, immediately after day 1 of the HumanSlayer Assad's brutal and insane slaughter of unarmed innocent men, women and children whom were only pleading for reforms and succor from the leader, that might have worked, if forcefully and quickly enforced as in Egypt.

Unfortunately, it was not, thanks to the China CCP govt and old world relic Putin, it was not. As a result, the animal Assad saw it as a sign of support and SLAUGHTERED even more innocent men, women and children - farmers, wives, goatherds, tradesmen, schoolkids, etc, by the TENS of THOUSANDS for 14 months!!!!

NOW, it is already long past for talks. The Free Syrian People are only looking for the HumanSlayer Assad and his brutal minion heads. They are NOT gonna CARE about their own lives, or nukes, or CHEMICAL weapons. They are driven insane by the butchery of their loved ones by the thousands in the presence of their eyes.

All they will care NOW is to have Assad and his forces heads, even if they have to GIVE UP their precious lives, as the insane but absolutely courageous synonymous with the will of the human spirit for freedom and JUSTICE - Damascus Attack to get Assad, with pitchforks and AK47s against tanks and chopper gunships!

May our common Creator forgive Putin and his bunch of incompetent corrupted idiots. They knew not what they are doing, blinded by greed and power...... We, the rest of humanity whom will inherit the atmospheric, crops and water contamination/destruction for days and even months to come, will remember what the CCP govt and Putin had done to Syria and mankind, for generations to come, if we survive.......

Originally posted by johncarter
reply to post by SeekerofTruth101

 

Modern chemical weapons are increasingly sophisticated and complex. Soldiers today have to contend with a variety of deadly chemicals ranging from nerve agents to blister agents. One of the most deadly chemical weapons is sarin gas.

Five hundred times more lethal than cyanide, sarin attacks the nervous system and has been known to kill people less than one minute after coming into contact with the gas.
The United Nations has identified about 70 different chemicals that can be used as weapons in modern combat scenarios. The most deadly chemical weapons are classified as "Lethal Unitary Chemical Agents and Munitions." These are the most hazardous weaponized chemicals.

The relocation of Syria’s undeclared chemical stockpile, which reportedly includes mustard gas as well as nerve agents such as Sarin, Tabun and VX, means Damascus is trying to protect its arsenal from more dangerous elements.
It is dispersed and under the control of a dedicated army unit that has a high degree of loyalty to the regime and is commanded by senior Alawites [Assad's sect].

U.S. Army symbol for chemical weapons.


wmdawareness.org writes:

Chemical weapons can be split into four main categories – each has a different effect.

• Vesicants (including sulphur mustard): Causes blisters and burning of the skin, eyes, throat and lungs. Death can result from the lungs filling with fluid. Can cause blindness. Sulphur mustard can cause cancers, and could also cause birth defects and cancers including leukaemia in the offspring of those exposed.

• Choking Agents (including chlorine and phosgene): Irritate the eyes, throat and lungs. Death can result from the lungs filling with fluid. • Blood Agents: Stop oxygen getting to tissue and to vital organs.

• Nerve Agents: The most dangerous and fatal in even very small amounts. Cause convulsions and death by respiratory paralysis. Can be absorbed through the skin and penetrates clothing.

Got a link where i can buy one of those anti chem warfare suits? I got a feeling i may need one in the near future.

reply to post by Ranong


Its because the FSA are on the losing grip and are on the defeat, because if you notice by the level of the posts and threads for the FSA, they are getting desperate.