posted on Apr, 28 2012 @ 10:47 AM
reply to post by gwydionblack
And here is where your numbers are wrong which I am sure you just copied from somewhere. In the coming 15 states left to hold primaries and
caucuses, 713 bound delegates are up for grabs. Only 3 of those states are winner-take-all states, the rest are proportional, which means Ron Paul
will definitely be walking away with some of those delegates. There are 106 delegates from that states that are unbound.
I'm not sure where you are getting your numbers from, but from what I see there are 15 primaries left with a total of 770 delegates up for grabs.
If you have a different source that shows there are 819 delegates left up for grabs, please share it.
The Proportional states usually have a minimum percentage that a candidate needs to get to qualify for the proportional allocation. In Texas it is
20%...Ron Paul is hasn't been polling about 15% in Texas so far...so he is going to have to campaign hard just to get above 20% to qualify for
proportional allocation. If he doesn't...Romney will get all the delegates. He may have a better chance with Gingrich dropping out...but that is
yet to be seen.
Seeing as how Ron Paul has taking the majority of almost all unbound delegates in each state to come across, I think it is safe to say he will
at least be seeing half, if not more of those unbound delegates, with the possibility of nearly ALL of them being Ron Paul supporters.
You can't make a statement like this without proof. Please show me proof that he has won nearly all the unbound delegates.
Even if Romney wins all three winner-take-all states, he will receive just 259 delegates, which sure, is obviously a big chunk needed in the
right direction, but not enough to clinch the vote. Considering Ron Paul support in Utah, one of those such states, I'm not exactly sure Romney is
going to "run away" with those 40 delegates now that Santorum and Gingrich are out. It could very well come down to Utah to decide it all.
Again, where are you getting your numbers?
The remaining winner take all states are Indiana(46), California(172), New Jersey(50), Montana(26) and Utah(40). If Romney wins all of those, he gets
334 delegates. Added to his hard count of 724, that is 1058. He would only need 86 more to clinch the nomination. So if Ron Paul can't outright
win one of those states, then it is all but over.
You make it SOUND impossible for Ron Paul to reach such a drastic number, but when delegates are allocated via proportional means, it isn't
that hard of a feat at all, especially when you only have two statistics. You like to skew everything to make it sound great in your favor, but in
reality - Ron Paul does indeed still have a very good chance of making it to the convention and getting the nomination whether you want to admit it or
Yes, it is almost impossible for a man who has yet to win one single state to gain that many delegates this late in the election. Not
impossible...almost impossible. Mathmatically it is still possible...but not probable at all.
For you to say he has a "very good chance" is being a bit dishonest in my opinion.