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Republican Primary Bound Delegate Count

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posted on Apr, 27 2012 @ 04:05 PM
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I keep seeing thread after thread claiming that the delegate counts that we all see are "only projections" and that in reality they are wildly different.

Well, just to set the record straight, I'm going to share a source that is kind enough to tabulate "soft" and "hard" counts for delegates. The "soft" count is the estimates and the "hard" count are those that are bound by law or party rule to vote for a candidate.

Without further ado...I present to you...the current (as of 4/27/2012) the "real" delegate counts.

www.thegreenpapers.com...



As we can see here, the "projected" delegate counts and the "real" delegate counts really aren't that far off.

In bound delegates, Romney is only short 420 delegates of clinching the nomination. In the upcoming primaries, there are 770 delegates up for grabs. There are also 307 delegates that are still uncommitted from previous primaries due to the states not having their conventions yet.

So out of 1077 delegates that are still unbound...Romney needs around 40% of them. Most of the upcoming primaries are in fact primaries and not caucuses...and most of them are now winner take all contests. California (winner take all) and Texas alone are 327 delegates.

For the only other active candidate in the race...Ron Paul has a much more difficult path to the nomination. He currently has 54 bound delegates. That means that out of the 1077 remaning, even if he won all 1077 he would come up short with only 1131 delegates. Now of course this would cause a fight at the convention. Which is really Ron Paul's only hope.

So let's see what Ron Paul would have to do to force a second round of voting at the convention. To prevent Romney from getting the 1144 bound delegates at the convention, Ron Paul is going to have to win at least 658 of the remaining unbound delegates...that is 61% of the delegates that are still unbound. For someone who has been averaging around 10%-20% in the previous primaries...I see this as an almost impossible task for Ron Paul.


So there are the real delegate counts...everything points to Romney being the nominee...he only needs 40% of the remaining unbound delegates...something that he should easily be able to get. There is a good chance this race will be over on June 5th when CA, NJ, NM, and SD have their primaries.




posted on Apr, 27 2012 @ 04:13 PM
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Finally, someone explained it all with actuall numbers. Thank you.
As Ron Paul said himself, it's unlikely that he will win the nomination, but theoretically it's still possible.
edit on 27-4-2012 by gmacev because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 27 2012 @ 04:20 PM
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reply to post by gmacev
 


Yes, very unlikely for him to win at this point.

In Theory...anyone can still win...all they need to do is enter the primary now and win enough delegates to force a brokered convention. It's not likely to happen at all...but it is possible.


What isn't possible, or logical, is for Ron Paul or his supporters to claim that he is currently "winning".



posted on Apr, 27 2012 @ 04:25 PM
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Good break down but there still "estimates".



posted on Apr, 27 2012 @ 04:29 PM
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Originally posted by hoochymama
Good break down but there still "estimates".


The "Hard Count" delegates are not estimates at all.

They are the legally bound delegates for that candidate.



posted on Apr, 27 2012 @ 04:47 PM
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I understand that. I think the numbers on the "soft" will change though. So we will see.



posted on Apr, 27 2012 @ 04:51 PM
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Originally posted by hoochymama
I understand that. I think the numbers on the "soft" will change though. So we will see.


Yes...the "soft" numbers will change as the "hard" numbers gain more bound delegates.

But the "hard" numbers for Romney and Paul will NEVER decrease...only increase.



posted on Apr, 27 2012 @ 04:59 PM
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You dont need to keep describing the Hard count. I fully understand, again. Im saying, the "soft" numbers will also change within the "soft" count not just from moving to the hard count. Also, Mitts "hard" count might only go up a little, not likely but just saying. I am sure the numbers represented in the "soft" count within each State are also going to change as well which in turn will change the "soft" count.

Hope that is clear. Thank you.



posted on Apr, 27 2012 @ 05:06 PM
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Originally posted by hoochymama
You dont need to keep describing the Hard count. I fully understand, again. Im saying, the "soft" numbers will also change within the "soft" count not just from moving to the hard count. Also, Mitts "hard" count might only go up a little, not likely but just saying. I am sure the numbers represented in the "soft" count within each State are also going to change as well which in turn will change the "soft" count.

Hope that is clear. Thank you.


Forget the "soft count"...that is what you and Ron Paul supporters complain about all the time anyway.

Look at the "hard count"...those are bound delegates and will only increase. It's simple math...Romney needs 40% of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination...Ron Paul needs over 60% to stop that...very very simple math.



posted on Apr, 27 2012 @ 05:08 PM
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I am very surprised that more people aren't interested in the actual bound delegate count.

People have been complaining about the projections on ATS for a long time...and here are actual bound delegate counts and no one seems to care.


Interesting to say the least.



posted on Apr, 27 2012 @ 05:15 PM
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Dude, I agree with you. But, there is still a lot of counting to do and I am optimistic. So, to further the discussion, what happens if RP wins that 60%?? Is it doable?? Maybe not.



posted on Apr, 27 2012 @ 05:16 PM
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Originally posted by OutKast Searcher
I am very surprised that more people aren't interested in the actual bound delegate count.

People have been complaining about the projections on ATS for a long time...and here are actual bound delegate counts and no one seems to care.


Interesting to say the least.


Yeah whatever happened to the slogan, "Deny Ignorance." ATS....ATS....ATS..... (Looks around the room) Guess everyone must be taking the day off today


I'm betting you another RP thread will be created in 30 mins and it will be sponsored on the website within the hour. The best part, is it will probably be a video from the early 2000s!

Facts are hard I know, but at least support people who actually give them to you!

They are probably avoiding this post due to your reputation. as well. Not meant as an insult, just saying...
edit on 27-4-2012 by jjf3rd77 because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 27 2012 @ 05:21 PM
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Originally posted by OutKast Searcher
I am very surprised that more people aren't interested in the actual bound delegate count.

People have been complaining about the projections on ATS for a long time...and here are actual bound delegate counts and no one seems to care.


Interesting to say the least.



The RP cult is only interested in those things that they can twist in their favor...



posted on Apr, 27 2012 @ 05:35 PM
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Thanks for taking the time to do the research and break it down for everyone, Outkast. It's not terribly great news, but it could certainly be worse. I also appreciate the fact that the OP is basically facts without too much bias, seeing as to how you're anti-Paul.

Cheers, S&F, and let's hope things get a tad more interesting before winding down.
edit on 27-4-2012 by Akuhei because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 27 2012 @ 05:43 PM
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Originally posted by hoochymama
Dude, I agree with you. But, there is still a lot of counting to do and I am optimistic. So, to further the discussion, what happens if RP wins that 60%?? Is it doable?? Maybe not.



If Ron Paul would somehow manage to get that 60%, the convention would go to a second vote, all delegates would become unbound, there would be a fight for Santorum and Gingrich's delegates. At that point it is up in the air....there would be a good possibility that if that happened the convention would become brokered and neither Ron Paul nor Mitt Romney would get the nomination.

All of that being said...I'd say there is more of a chance of Romney dropping out for no reason than Ron Paul getting that 60%.



posted on Apr, 27 2012 @ 05:48 PM
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reply to post by Akuhei
 


shame he might of been able to save the united slaves of america,



posted on Apr, 27 2012 @ 05:49 PM
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And just to be fair, most RP supporters on this site dont just blindly follow him nor do they hide there heads in the sand regarding how hard or impossible it will be to win the Nomination. I think a little humble pie on both sides might not be a bad idea.



posted on Apr, 27 2012 @ 05:51 PM
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You're absolutely right. I ran the numbers same as you for this thread here and get the same spastic reaction from the Paul supporters. The way I see it the only way Paul could possibly win is if he gets ALL the remaining delegates PLUS those of Santorum and Gingrich.

The fact is, when people actually vote (as opposed to caucuses) Paul gets about 11% of that. So there;s is no way that Paul will win. His supporters are completely delusional.



posted on Apr, 27 2012 @ 05:59 PM
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NOTE: The "soft" delegate count is this website's estimate of the potential delegate support for each contender based on key delegate selection events already held and is subject to change as we get closer to the National Conventions; the "hard" count is the tabulation of delegates already formally pledged or bound by law and/or Party rules.


The Paul campaign came out with numbers a long time ago that are on-par with what this website's "soft" count is estimating for Ron Paul's delegate total. I doubt that is anywhere near the correct number.



posted on Apr, 27 2012 @ 06:07 PM
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Originally posted by Darkinin

NOTE: The "soft" delegate count is this website's estimate of the potential delegate support for each contender based on key delegate selection events already held and is subject to change as we get closer to the National Conventions; the "hard" count is the tabulation of delegates already formally pledged or bound by law and/or Party rules.


The Paul campaign came out with numbers a long time ago that are on-par with what this website's "soft" count is estimating for Ron Paul's delegate total. I doubt that is anywhere near the correct number.


So don't look at the "soft count"...use the "hard count".

That is the whole point of this thread.





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