posted on Apr, 27 2012 @ 04:05 PM
I keep seeing thread after thread claiming that the delegate counts that we all see are "only projections" and that in reality they are wildly
Well, just to set the record straight, I'm going to share a source that is kind enough to tabulate "soft" and "hard" counts for delegates. The
"soft" count is the estimates and the "hard" count are those that are bound by law or party rule to vote for a candidate.
Without further ado...I present to you...the current (as of 4/27/2012) the "real" delegate counts.
As we can see here, the "projected" delegate counts and the "real" delegate counts really aren't that far off.
In bound delegates, Romney is only short 420 delegates of clinching the nomination. In the upcoming primaries, there are 770 delegates up for grabs.
There are also 307 delegates that are still uncommitted from previous primaries due to the states not having their conventions yet.
So out of 1077 delegates that are still unbound...Romney needs around 40% of them. Most of the upcoming primaries are in fact primaries and not
caucuses...and most of them are now winner take all contests. California (winner take all) and Texas alone are 327 delegates.
For the only other active candidate in the race...Ron Paul has a much more difficult path to the nomination. He currently has 54 bound delegates.
That means that out of the 1077 remaning, even if he won all 1077 he would come up short with only 1131 delegates. Now of course this would cause a
fight at the convention. Which is really Ron Paul's only hope.
So let's see what Ron Paul would have to do to force a second round of voting at the convention. To prevent Romney from getting the 1144 bound
delegates at the convention, Ron Paul is going to have to win at least 658 of the remaining unbound delegates...that is 61% of the delegates that are
still unbound. For someone who has been averaging around 10%-20% in the previous primaries...I see this as an almost impossible task for Ron Paul.
So there are the real delegate counts...everything points to Romney being the nominee...he only needs 40% of the remaining unbound
delegates...something that he should easily be able to get. There is a good chance this race will be over on June 5th when CA, NJ, NM, and SD have