Evening all, unfortunately i really dont have a whole lot of time to provide a really detailed update, however, i have prepared some information
As some of you will be aware, the colder weather patterns have already arrived in some northern states and Canada. The prognosis for the next week is
much of the same. What we are seeing is general agreement in the models, even though it has taken all weekend for a stronger agreement to arrive. We
are looking at a cold sweep in the nrthern states, spreading west to east. I dont want to be too assertive at the moment but i believe we could see
quite a potent east coast snow event at the tail end of this week. We could be loking at quite a plummet in temperature with possibly widespread
snow. Its always notoriously difficult to predict precipitaion, especially whether it will be snow or rain. As i'm sure many of you are aware, it
can be a blizzard 20 miles away and nothing at home...
I have prepared a series of maps below to try and illustate what i believe will arrive over the northern states in the US and Canada over the next
week to 10 days.
As with any weather advise, its not guaranteed but what i can say is that with model agreement, the chances are greater for accuracy. My rule of
thumb with the above images is that if you live north of the High Risk line, be aware that there will be the potential for some very cold temperatures
with a greater risk of disruption in the event of snow. Using this rule, following the lines down through green and yellow, the hazard diminishes.
Anywhere south of the yellow line, although not expemt from the cold and snow...the chances of disruption (unless at elevation) are slimmer.
The UK is proving harder to detail as the models are slightly off with what could occur. The ECM has been performing well over the past few days and
it seems to be the favoured for the short term. With that in mind, it is producing a bit of a "beast from the east" towards the end of next
weekend. Although this is still in "Fantasy Island", other models are falling in line with this output. GFS has been doing very well with
predicting storms this winter but there seems to be a bit of a struggle from it during this past week with the changing dynamics...The UKMO is slowly
coming in line but whether or not any of them change significantly over the next 24-48 hours is anyones guess. If any of them do, then snow and cold
projections will be back to the drawing board. So with that in mind what can we expect?
Well a "beast from the east" usually delivers cold and snow to the entire easten half of the UK, with the potential to spread west through low lying
areas like the Midland and the Central Belt in Scotland. An easterly usually delivers a good amoumt of snow through convection over the North Sea,
similar to "lake effect snow" in North America through the Great Lakes.
We could see temperatues struggling to get above 0oC throughout the day at the end of the weekend, with snow likely anywhere in the East. If the
models verify, we could see this weather arrive at our shores around the 20th - 21st.
We are looking at snow and cold potential spreading west to east in Canada and the northern states of the US over the next week to 10 days. There is
potential for quite a snow event on the eastern US towards the end of the week, around the 20th. This cold could be quite significant in nature.
The UK will see the cold air at the moment last a couple more days before a brief milder spell arrives, but toward the wekend we will see a return to
colder conditions which in turn will allow the significant cold to materialise, especially in the East. By the end of this week, 20th onwards, we
could see plenty of snow blow in off the North Sea, if all goes well.
Please bear in mind that the models can and will change over the course of the next few days but as you can all appreciate, the original purpose of
this thread was to illustrate that this milder weather is coming to an end and this forth coming week should highlight that to many.