What I’m about to present to you may very well put my reputation on the line with regards to weather forecasting and preparedness, however, with
recent threads being created regarding the recent mild weather and the lack of cold…it’s justifiable to warn of a potential set-up that merits
recognition in both the United States and Europe.
We have all felt the milder weather, and here we are in Early January with no mention of snow or cold from any major weather sources. There is little
to go on really except for folk-lore and speculation. Neither of which benefit us in reality when it comes to the harshness that winter can provide
– especially those in the United States and Canada.
So why the hush in the media?
Well, this I can only presume is because of the uncertainty…there is only one certainty at this moment and that certainty is that there is a general
pattern change occurring in the Northern Hemisphere at the moment, what that brings for specifics is open to debate which is where I am putting my
reputation on the line. I am going to try and give some specifics.
The current set up in Europe
At present we can see from the below picture that the Jet Stream is blowing straight into the UK from a maritime origin. This is driving the extra
tropical cyclones into the UK (remember the storms), which then transits through to Europe. Europe is lacking any real cold just now because of the
placement of the Jet Stream. The Jet Stream is amplified because of the extreme cold of the Stratosphere.
The current set up in North America
At the moment (and has been for a while) the US is locked in the grip of continual High Pressure systems. This is feeding in air from a milder origin
to the south. This has kept temperatures during the day quite mild, as here in Europe. Of course there are areas to the exception but they really
need some kind of elevation. At present, as seen below there is very little in the way of a Jet Stream over the US and Canada. This is preventing
much in the way of change here and unless this “sorts itself out” we will see the milder weather continue…
So where is the potential?
OK, this is where it gets to the nitty gritty. The Northern Hemisphere is displaying subtle changes, that, when analysed can paint a picture…that
picture isn’t exactly clear yet but it is confirming a change. How bad is that change, well it is still open for clarification but I am willing at
this point to give you my thoughts and expectations using my interpretation of the model outputs. Why? Well I see a change, I believe the change will
come and I believe it will catch many off guard. I also want to put to bed any threads that cause confusion and spread dis-information about why we
are experiencing what we are…and where winter has gone!
The image below shows you temperatures for today at a height of 2 meters above the ground. As you can see, the UK is quite tropical
around 8 Celsius, with a large portion of the US and Canada sitting at around 0-10celcius, which is quite balmy for that neck of the woods.
Below you can see the temperature of the air masses currently located around the Northern Hemisphere. These temperatures are taken at a height of
around 1,500m above sea level. So as you can see, its actually quite mild around Europe and North America...not good for snow lovers. The main
exception being over Greenland - which is the Polar Vortex, that's causing us to have to put up with this autumnal weather.
Here, below, we can see the shift taking place. As you will note the Jet Stream is shifting in both the US and Europe. This is valid for the 13th
January. This is allowing a colder pool of air to emerge into both the Central US states and Europe.
Here we have the corresponding 2 meter image for the 13th January. As you can see, with the Jet shifting, it is allowing temperatures in the US to
plummet, and its causing the temperature of Europe to drop away as well. The UK will be between 0-4 Celsius, while the mid states will be ranging
from -16 to 0 Celsius. Not pretty weather,
Here you can see the air masses for the Northern Hemisphere around the 15th January. A stark change to today. At a height of 1,500m, we are seeing
temperatures over the UK at around -4 and the US and Canada, anywhere between -24 to -4 Celsius. This means, if there is precipitation, it'll most
likely be snow...
Here we have the Jet Stream at around +180hours out, roughly the 16th of January. Below this image are the 2 corresponding images for the 2 meter
height and the 1,500m height.
Here is the 2 meter temperature for the Northern Hemisphere. The US will be in a grip of cold air, with the UK still below average.
Here is the 1,500m height, as you can see, the cold air really digs in through the mid US. Potentially very cold weather indeed.
What we are seeing here is a change in the dynamics of the weather pattern across the Northern Hemisphere. The set up that has brought us this milder
weather is shifting and its becoming more favourable for cold lovers. The US could be particularly hard hit around the area's below from around the
beginning to middle of next week onwards. The UK, by standards of late will also experience a bite, that will come as a shock to most. There is also
the potential for Europe to be in a bit of a freeze later on, around the 20th January, which, if all other ingredients fall into place (speculation at
present) could lead to a sustained colder period for the UK around the 20th-25th January.
My advice here would be to prepare for cold, if it materialises (dependent on severity) at least you are ready. There is no harm or fear mongering
intended here. This is a legitimate forecast for potentially very wintry weather for the US and the UK/Europe. Take the advice or leave it...time
I will provide a further update at the weekend, where the output signals can be more closely verified or disregarded.
P.S. Keep your eyes and ear's open for MSM forecasts, as of yet i believe they haven't released anything i suspect they are waiting to see what is
in the wings...