U.S. data point to firming economic recovery

Reuters

The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell to a 3-1/2-year low last week and factory activity in parts of the Northeast gained speed in December, suggesting a further strengthening of the economic recovery.

While other data on Thursday showed industrial output shrank for the first time in seven months in November, much of the decline came from auto production, which analysts said was held back by temporary supply disruptions.

"It looks like we have just hit a clear patch on the road to recovery, where things are going to speed up a little bit," said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.

The fairly upbeat data helped investors on Wall Street to put their aside their worries about the European debt crisis and buy stocks. Prices for U.S. Treasury debt fell, while the dollar weakened broadly.

Although growth is quickening from the third quarter's 2 percent annual rate, analysts caution that troubles in debt-stricken Europe pose a major risk to the U.S. economy. The fourth quarter growth pace is expected to top 3 percent.

Much of the rest of the global economy is already weakening, with the euro zone expected to slip into recession.

The U.S. economy also faces a risk that lawmakers will fail to extend a payroll tax cut and emergency jobless benefits that expired at year end, which would dent the expansion in 2012.

For now, however, it continues to show resilience.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 19,000 to 366,000, the lowest since May 2008, the Labor Department said. That follows on the heels of a report earlier this month that showed the jobless rate hit a 2-1/2-year low of 8.6 percent in November.

On the contrary to much of the gloomy outlook on the global economy, including that from IMF's Lagarde, is the positive data appearing out of the US, suggesting economic recovery is firming. Well it may be, but the economic recovery is probably marginalising a larger number of people from the economy meaning that fewer people are benefiting from the economic growth.

I heard someone mention on CNBC I think it was, that the US is doing today what is was pre 2008 but with six million less people. So there are six million people or so no longer a part of the US economy and reaping its benefits even though performance and GDP is maintained. Kind of reminds me of countries like India where you have lots of wealthy people but even much more so poverty.

The world is changing and countries are changining to adjust to new economic realities and technologies where companies can remain profitable, CEOs and execs continue to get paid their massive bonuses, the wealthy are actually getting more wealth (hence some of those markets and products sales still going well apparently) all the while the middle class get squeazed and thousands more people get pushed into poverty. So while we see economic growth picking up, at least in the US, the world's largest economy, we also see increasing civil agitation (ie OWS) and more people requring welfare support such as food stamps.

Interested to hear further opinons but please I don't want to read any BS trolling posts nor posts stating that all the numbers are complete lies. While I agree that stats and numbers can be tweaked and manipulated, MSM and government do acutally report bad numbers when the data clearly reveal such, so they are not always outright lying.

I think it may be mostly true, but I also think that it underestimates the amount of people that are hurting. Companies have cut so much that they can't really cut anymore or risk going after "the bone". It doesn't really show the amount of people who are underemployed.

reply to post by AnIntellectualRedneck


Good point re underemployment. I also bet that there are a lot more people doing more for less to assist with keeping those companies as profitable too.

reply to post by surrealist


Of course it's turning around but...

At a much much slower and anemic pace than has been the case in other historical recoveries. In the past, the US would rebound from recessions due largely to New home building/sales and all the related wear with all that goes into them. Building supplies, New appliances etc. Employing Plumbers, Electricians, Carpenters and Painters etc. This was spurred by the lowering of interest rates.

Which then, those people that were not in the market for a new home who have homes would also take advantage of those lower interest rates and do remodeling and home upgrades etc.

The issue now, there is a housing Glut and the fact that a much larger percentage than ever before of products are made abroad. Chiefly China.

There is nothing wrong or politically incorrect about supporting your country's manufacturing industry and businesses.

Buy American.
It can't hurt.

reply to post by surrealist


More and more and more manipulated BS. Soon we will all be unemployed with a 2% unemployment rate.

I do enjoy the struggles they go through just to put out a "everything is A.O.K!" propaganda once a week.
reply to post by SLAYER69


Not just manufactured items either! I try my hardest to only eat produce from my local region.. everything from cheese and apples to beef and chicken. Otherwise you go to grocery stores and buy produce from Mexico or mega corporate farms with god only knows what injected into it. It's a full time job just making sure you consume non poisonous American goods.

reply to post by Rockpuck




Yeah the agricultural aspect is kind of funny eh?

They really don't hire Americans but migrant workers of questionable citizenship. The other day I was at Walmart [Which I normally avoid like the plaque] I started reading the source of origin for the apples in some Apple juice. All from China...

WTH?

We grow tons of Apples here in the States the only reason Walmart does that is to shave about 20 cents off a bottle of juice. When you consider how many millions of bottles of juice they sell nationwide over months it all adds up to millions in profit.

Meanwhile according to this study 1 in 2 americans are poor or low income. A sobering reality and even more surprising to be noticed as a major news on MSM this evening. I completely agree with buying local but with food items determining its true origin is not so simple. Case in point....I shop on Saturdays at my local farmers market painted with locally grown fresh signs and stickers everywhere. I took a closer look at a few items over the past few months and many were from out of country. What's worse is that some locals take advantage of this by charging even more for the same produce I get from a local grocer. I get the fact that people are desperate and putting food on the table outweighs any notion of buying to help others. It's an everyone for themselves mentality.

American has lived well beyond her means and so apparently have many other countries. The stories of an improving economy are fallacy. The numbers and formulas are simply re-arranged to provide feel good news. The problems just seem so incredibly deeper than compared to the Great Depression. Is there really anything left to even buy American ?

src

brill

Originally posted by Rockpuck
reply to post by surrealist

 

More and more and more manipulated BS. Soon we will all be unemployed with a 2% unemployment rate.

Probably around November 2012 on a certain Tuesday to be more accurate.

reply to post by surrealist


The Best Barometer in gauging the Current State of our Economy is your Local " Main Street " . Last time I checked , Mine still has Many VACANT Bank Owned Stores..............

Here is some support to the OP I made, cited in part:

US mayors decry rise in poverty, homelessness

US mayors sounded an alarm Thursday over deepening economic woes after a survey of 29 cities from Los Angeles to Washington showed worrying rises in homelessness and poverty-related food aid.
"Here is the richest country in the world (and) we have people who cannot find a place to live," said Kansas City Mayor Sly James, who co-chairs a task force on hunger and homelessness for the US Conference of Mayors.

Well with fewer and fewer scum hording and holding the wealth what else would anyone seriously expect?

"We are failing" to address critical issues of homelessness and the use of food stamps, which is "increasing, not decreasing," he told reporters on a conference call to discuss the survey.

The government has reported that 46.2 million people nationwide were living in poverty in 2010 and that the rate climbed to 15.1 percent, up from 14.3 percent a year earlier.

Of the 29 cities surveyed -- all of which have more than 30,000 residents -- 25 reported increased requests for emergency food assistance in the past year.

In Kansas City, Missouri, the rate of food aid spiked by 40 percent, the highest increase in the survey, followed by Boston and Salt Lake City with a 35 percent increase and Philadelphia with 32 percent. Food aid requests in San Francisco dropped by 11 percent.

Unemployment was the primary cause of hunger, according to the cities, whose total emergency food budget as a group last year was $272 million.

So jobless benefits fell...but there are still jobless benefits. This is like homer simpson being happy that sat scores are declining at a slower rate. Ha! And how does this recession fare with the census report that half the country is poor, 1 in 2 americans are poor!

Initial claims are dropping. Very likely because a number of industries have been decimated, and employees are contracting temp jobs as well.

Population has increased about 8.3Million, the labor force increased by 5.3Million.

With the population increase and the number of employed dropping from 145Million to 140Million, not working has increased by 13Million since October 2008.

Very bad politics for high tech companies to hire H1B employees to save a buck over citizens during this time.



Employment data source: www.bls.gov...
Claims data source: workforcesecurity.doleta.gov...

Just like the difference between government unemployment data and actual data... Only real mystery here is, who's ass are they pulling the data from to make these reports??

reply to post by surrealist


What economic recovery?
Sorry but you cant trust that data sounds me that all the major news newtworks are a mouthpiece for the Gov.

Looking purely at charts of employed v. population v. labor force, the unemployment rate is 11%-12%.

Source: www.zerohedge.com...
Gallup Finds Unemployment Rises For Fourth Week In A Row, Cautions On BLS Data

Gallup's data suggest little improvement in the jobs situation. December unemployment is up slightly on an unadjusted basis. In fact, the government is likely to report essentially no change in the unemployment rate when it issues its report on December unemployment in the first week of 2012. Of course, this assumes that the labor force doesn't continue to shrink at so rapid a pace that it drives down the unemployment rate, as it did last month. Gallup's most recent weekly job creation numbers also suggest little improvement in the jobs situation. As a result, it may be wise to exercise caution in interpreting the drop in the government's most recent jobless claims numbers.

First U3 numbers:

on the far less important broad unemployment rate, or U-3

Unemployment, one of the two components of underemployment, is at 8.7% in mid-December -- up from 8.5% at the end of last month, but down from 9.3% a year ago. Gallup's unemployment measure suggests the government is likely to report essentially no change for December 2011 in its seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, though this is even more difficult than usual to predict at this time of year.

Next the U6 numbers

on broad Underemployment or U-6

Underemployment, a measure that combines the percentage of workers who are unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work, is 18.4% in mid-December, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment. This is up slightly from 18.1% at the end of November and similar to the 18.5% of a year ago.

See article for charts, more info.