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Originally posted by TheWalkingFox
reply to post by maddog99
Nope. Because 400 people is not large enough to reduce the margin of error to an acceptable level.
Any other silly questions?
Originally posted by TheWalkingFox
reply to post by 27jd
Once again, Ron Paul supporters are hinging hteir support on easily-gamed internet polls.
Really, guys... You like the guy so much, why not do something that gets you out from in front of the computer screen? Why not hold some sort of "Holy &*$% RON PAUL IS AWESOME!" rally, hashtag it #HSRPIA or something, and really show it all off.
Granted this will mean associating with people who support Ron Paul, so I can understand your reluctance
But really guys. open Internet polls don't tell you anything.
Follow the money
Before a poll is done, the pollster is contracted by a client who pays for it. In theory the client explains what information is needed from the public and the pollster designs the sample methodology to accurately gather this information with a poll.
In real life, things work quite differently.
To survive in the business, a pollster learns very quickly that the most important factor in polling is the relationship between the pollster and client. The pollster realizes that the client has to be satisfied with the results of the poll. Otherwise, no more business. Human nature being what it is, a pollster understands the client isn’t looking for negativity from the poll. So the most critical part of this process is the pollster trying to figure out in advance of the poll, what would make the client happy. Once a pollster has learned that important truth, he/she can proceed to successfully do the job — provide polling data that will make the client happy.
As the reader can appreciate, this “understanding” has flipped everything upside down. Instead of polls bringing us “truths” from the public domain, they have become marketing tools that provide “scientific” validation to the speculative ideas of the client. While I have exaggerated this dynamic between pollster and client slightly for purpose of clarity, have no doubt that this is the operative equation in organizing and conducting surveys in just about every domain of interest. This is the dirty little secret that all pollsters share.
biasinonlinesurveys.idiary.com...
Originally posted by TheWalkingFox
reply to post by maddog99
You really do think Ron Paul is some sort of threat to the status quo, don't you? Sigh. Ron Paul has two - TWO - positions that set him apart from the other eight candidates.
1) He wants to audit the fed
2) he wants to end the war on terror
And good for him, I say. These are both good ideas. The trouble is... this doesn't make him the revolutionary leader pressing for massive, sweeping change that you guys have in your heads. Everywhere else, he's pretty orthodox. In fact, you're not going to find any significant differences between his domestic plan and the plans of the other republican candidates. They're all the same.
1) cut taxes massively at the top
2) Cut government services everywhere else.
3) Claim that the government you just defunded and slashed "isn't working"
4) Sell off the public assets to your buddies in assorted private industries
5) Enjoy your kickbacks and retire in some warm nation with no extradition treaty.
This is why I haunt Ron Paul threads. You guys keep breaking your arms to pat yourself on the back about how smart you all are, so I'm trying to get you guys to realize just what you're trying so hard to get into here. So far as I can tell, you're all of the mind that you don't really give a good goddamn what happens so long as "your guy" wins.
When the Republican presidential debate began tonight, a crowd of about 400 people gathered at a watch party in Oakland University’s student center ranked Mitt Romney and Ron Paul as their favorites.
www.freep.com...
Originally posted by Blackmarketeer
From CNBC:
An Open Letter to the Ron Paul Faithful
Dear folks,
You guys are good. Real good. You are truly a force on World Wide Web and I tip my hat to you.
That's based on my first hand experience of your work regarding our CNBC Republican candidate debate. After the debate, we put up a poll on our Web site asking who readers thought won the debate. You guys flooded it.
Now these Internet polls are admittedly unscientific and subject to hacking. In the end, they are really just a way to engage the reader and take a quick temperature reading of your audience. Nothing more and nothing less. The cyber equivalent of asking the room for a show of hands on a certain question.
So there was our after-debate poll. The numbers grew ... 7,000-plus votes after a couple of hours ... and Ron Paul was at 75%.
Now Paul is a fine gentleman with some substantial backing and, by the way, was a dynamic presence throughout the debate, but I haven't seen him pull those kind of numbers in any "legit" poll. Our poll was either hacked or the target of a campaign. So we took the poll down.
The next day, our email basket was flooded with Ron Paul support messages. And the computer logs showed the poll had been hit with traffic from Ron Paul chat sites. I learned other Internet polls that night had been hit in similar fashion. Congratulations. You folks are obviously well-organized and feel strongly about your candidate and I can't help but admire that.
But you also ruined the purpose of the poll. It was no longer an honest "show of hands" -- it suddenly was a platform for beating the Ron Paul drum. That certainly wasn't our intention and certainly doesn't serve our readers ... at least those who aren't already in the Ron Paul camp.
Some of you Ron Paul fans take issue with my decision to take the poll down. Fine. When a well-organized and committed "few" can throw the results of a system meant to reflect the sentiments of "the many," I get a little worried. I'd take it down again.
Sincerely,
Allen Wastler
Managing Editor, CNBC.com
Server logs will show if there was indeed poll flooding from specific IPs. I would agree with this editor that any poll showing a 75% lead for a particular candidate has probably been rigged. But then again, if real living persons that are RP followers voted in an honest fashion - i.e., no hacking, then what does it matter if they "got organized"? Isn't that very same organization the sort of thing that would win RP the primary then the general elections?edit on 10-11-2011 by Blackmarketeer because: (no reason given)