[Prediction] - Asteroid YU55 to impact Northern Atlantic on 8th November 2011.

Originally posted by ProudBird
reply to post by SatoriTheory

 

[edit] - ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ beat me to it.


JPL website for information:

Asteroid 2005 YU55 to Approach Earth on November 8, 2011

Near-Earth asteroid 2005 YU55 will pass within 0.85 lunar distances from the Earth on November 8, 2011. The upcoming close approach by this relatively large 400 meter-sized, C-type asteroid presents an excellent opportunity for synergistic ground-based observations including optical, near infrared and radar data.

"0.85 Lunar distances". As the Moon orbits, its perigee and apogee vary between 356,400 km to 406,700 km.

So, multiply those amounts by 0.85.....at its closest, then....we get the figure 302,940 km away. Not even dangerous, at all.


Animated trajectory GIF

edit on Thu 13 October 2011 by ProudBird because: (no reason given)

WOOO, wait a minute. IS THAT FIGURE CORRECT? IF that is, then there is something to be of major concern. You put down moon orbits 356,400 km and YU55 to pass at 302,940 km. I wonder what the margin of error is and if anything will effect YU55 trajectory. IF SO, then what do you think will happen to the oceans if YU55 hits the moon? How large is 400 meters in miles and how fast is this thing travelling anyway?

Could this make pieces fly off the moon and come flying down to earth in balls of fire? Could this YU55 create a space dust bowl and block out the sun's rays and put earth in a mini ice age? Nov. 8th or 9th. One or two days before my B-day. Tell me i'm wacko right now and prove me wrong on my thoughts here.

Originally posted by cloaked4u
Could this make pieces fly off the moon and come flying down to earth in balls of fire? Could this YU55 create a space dust bowl and block out the sun's rays and put earth in a mini ice age? Nov. 8th or 9th. One or two days before my B-day. Tell me i'm wacko right now and prove me wrong on my thoughts here.

yes it could.

The earth could also be hit by an un-charted object and turned into a wide-spread fireball before i finish typing this message. Your wallet may also fall on the floor with no explanation.

The chances of any of the predictions on this site or in the media in general coming true are very, very slim. It's more likely that nothing will happen at all.

STOP WORRYING.

reply to post by cloaked4u


Relax.

I wonder what the margin of error is and if anything will effect YU55 trajectory.

Skip back to page #10, another ATS member posted a nice image for you....it is from the JPL
website. 2005 YU55 is above the plane of the ecliptic. Try to remember to think n three dimensions, when discussing things in space.

IF SO, then what do you think will happen to the oceans if YU55 hits the moon?

It will make a crater. Would be very interesting to a lot of scientists if it did happen on the hemisphere that faces Earth, so it could be observed. But again....it is still above the Earth and Moon, as they move on orbit around the Sun.

Oh, and about its trajectory being affected, there really is nothing local to the Earth/Moon system to cause that. By the way, think about the fact that astronomers can calculate orbital trajectories very precisely.....observations are quite precise, especially when there are many taken (which is the case here). Because, think about it....we have no trouble sending spacecraft out on very accurate trajectories, to put them where we want, and make rendezvous with other planets or moons. The science of motion and orbital mechanics is very well understood.

How large is 400 meters in miles and how fast is this thing travelling anyway?

400 meters is roughly 1300 feet. Its velocity I don't know to hand....will be at the JPL website, but recall that it's relative, since everything is in motion. One asteroid impact calculator program I saw said an average for asteroids (objects) near Earth (a "NEO") would have a velocity difference of about 17 km/sec. But, there can be a multitude of differences, all depends on the orbital paths, etc.

Could this make pieces fly off the moon and come flying down to earth in balls of fire?

No, a very, very massively large object striking the Moon would be needed. It would have to be energetic enough to cause debris to reach the Moon's escape velocity....otherwise, anything thrown up from impact would remain in the Moon's orbit, eventually to fall back to the Lunar surface.

Could this YU55 create a space dust bowl and block out the sun's rays and put earth in a mini ice age?

Not at that meager size.


You can play with this program: Impact Earth!

( Slow Internet? This is same, just not fancy graphics: impact.ese.ic.ac.uk... )

That is only for Earth, and our 1g gravity. But, the Moon is far enough away that even if some ejecta escaped its gravity, would be minor....and our atmosphere protects us from that...nice meteor shower wold be seen, though....


Now, I do hope the OP, and a few others, will come on back to re-visit this thread on the 10th or 11th November, after no impact has occurred. Should be fun to watch someone eating crow........

Went to Celestia to to find this but it is not listed. Can I get the correct imput (name) and the co-ordanites.
i am showing an object passing about 73,000 miles from the Earth and missing the moon on your date but it is listed as a 2004.Also it is only 320 Km so it is smaller.And it is solid not pourous.

reply to post by Curling1

Can I get the correct imput (name) and the co-ordanites.

I don't use Celestia....but the proper name is 2005 YU55.

Here is one JPL link, including the inter-active orbital diagram Java Applet:

ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...


Another JPL link:
neo.jpl.nasa.gov...


A short GIF from the orbital diagram (from the above link):

Spot the problem here:



Top image is from JPL's animated trajectory (source).
Second image is from Celestia program showing position of earth, moon and sun at 11:28pm on 8th November 2011.
Third image is a screen grab of the orbit trajectory from JPL's orbital diagram.

See the problem? If you are to believe the first image, NASA, the asteroid is coming directly from the Sun's position.

Here is an image of all three images overlayed:


While the overlay image is not scientifically perfect, it does show a very large variation in the trajectory of the asteroid. The trajectory on the first image, does not match the trajectory on the last image, both are from JPL.

st.

US is not the only country plotting the cosmos ! I'm sure somebody would have figured this out since 2005 if there was any real danger ?

reply to post by rick004


I would agree with you on this.

Unless a bunch of Governments know about it and they are lying to us, which would kind of be justified I guess as to not create hysteria.

I guess you would have to ask if there are other things going on in other countries that look strange. Like mass bunker building or something like that.

I personally suspect that they are unsure, but that doesn't mean it will hit us.

Originally posted by SatoriTheory
Spot the problem here:

Top image is from JPL's animated trajectory (source).
Second image is from Celestia program showing position of earth, moon and sun at 11:28pm on 8th November 2011.
Third image is a screen grab of the orbit trajectory from JPL's orbital diagram.

See the problem? If you are to believe the first image, NASA, the asteroid is coming directly from the Sun's position.

Here is an image of all three images overlayed:

While the overlay image is not scientifically perfect, it does show a very large variation in the trajectory of the asteroid. The trajectory on the first image, does not match the trajectory on the last image, both are from JPL.

st.

I see the problem..
now there are only two questions

did nasa make a mistake
or does nasa know somehing we dont

I believe the scale is significantly different on the 3rd image.

I suspect that's why there's no moon shown in that one?

Anyhoo, this is the far more relevant diagram from your first JPL link:

reply to post by SatoriTheory


You are merely misinterpreting the orientation of those diagrams, because they are extremely "zoomed in" scale-wise.

Is this an honest mistake on your part, or an attempt at deception? The yellow line labeled "Direction to Sol" is added by you?

Go here to this link: ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...

Make sure you have the Java Applet installed on your computer.

When the orbital diagram finishes loading, manipulate with the slider controls to adjust the point-of-view.

The slider on the right, when all the way at bottom, will give you a "top down" view (using the convention of Earth's North as the *top* in relation to the entire Solar System).

The heliocentric orbit of 2005 YU55 is clearly outlined in BLUE. Dark blue when it is above the ecliptic plane, light blue when below.

Obviously the two other slider controls are self-explanatory. Play with them as you see fit.

The Date box, and the Pause, Fast Forward/Rewind and Step Forward/Reverse buttons should be intuitive as well.

reply to post by ProudBird


According to link you just posted the JPL shows this YU55 will now pass at 0.0022 AU...How close is that!?!?!?! This is much, much closer than previously diagrammed!!! This happens on November 9, 2011, according to the model...

reply to post by jeichelberg

....this YU55 will now pass at 0.0022 AU...How close is that!?!?!?!

An A.U. is an "Astronomical Unit". It is the average distance of Earth to Sun, or roughly (rounded to) 93,000,000 miles.

My calculator tells me that 93 million X 0.0022 = 204,600 miles. As already said many times, just a bit closer than our Moon's distance from Earth.

(**) More precisely, after looking it up:

An astronomical unit (abbreviated as AU, au, a.u., or ua) is a unit of length equal to about 149597870.7 kilometres (92955807.3 mi)

Also, if you will note on the JPL orbital diagram, 2005 YU55 will be above the ecliptic as it "passes by"...there is no way it can impact Earth, nor the Moon.

reply to post by ProudBird


That is still over 300KM...okay...the small percentage is what scared me for a minute...Wow...sorry...room for roughly twelve more earths between us and the object...

I just hope at some point our science can be able to deflect these objects so we will no longer be needing to share things such as this...These types of should be addressed...

reply to post by SatoriTheory

I see the doom bringers are hard at work making a new one.

Never let a good doom and gloom moment pass by.

Originally posted by ProudBird
reply to post by SatoriTheory

 

You are merely misinterpreting the orientation of those diagrams, because they are extremely "zoomed in" scale-wise.

I have not misinterpreted the orientations. The positions of the earth, the moon and earth's path are aligned in both the first (JPL) and the second (Celestia) images. The celestia image even shows the correct date.

Is this an honest mistake on your part, or an attempt at deception?

It is neither a mistake nor any deception. What I have posted are verifiable facts. If you had bothered to verify what I have shown, using the software I have shown, then you would know fine well it is no mistake or deception.

The yellow line labeled "Direction to Sol" is added by you?

That is correct, because unlike NASA, I like to try and clearly label my images so that the viewer is fully aware and understands the orientation of the image.

The position of the Sun is always in the direction that is perpendicular to Earth's path.

st.

Originally posted by ColAngus
I believe the scale is significantly different on the 3rd image.

Thats correct, but the scale will not affect the direction. The directions are vastly different and they shouldn't be.

I suspect that's why there's no moon shown in that one?

No moon in the JPL orbit viewer. So I used the position of the sun and the path of earth as a guide.

Anyhoo, this is the far more relevant diagram from your first JPL link:

You might think it is more relevant, however, as the first diagram from JPL is wrong, then that means the second diagram from JPL may also be wrong.

st.

Direction, shmirection. Your implication was clear with the third diagram, trying to suggest an impact when the scale was misrepresented.

Anyhoo, any ETA on that theory yet?