China warns India and Vietnam : Do not do oil exploration in the South China Sea

Originally posted by Xcathdra
reply to post by hp1229

 

All your claims are belong to us.....

Hmmmmmm

Yeah...something like that.

Nothing more than street thuggery if you ask me

Originally posted by MrStyx
Oh looky looky here. China finally fixes up that old carrier and the imperialism just starts to bust open from the seams. Are all the people who have been cheering China on as the new World power now seeing it doesn't matter who's on top they implore the same strategies.

Meet the new boss...Same as the old boss ...well atleast in the South East Asia Region

Experience hath shewn, that even under the best forms of government those entrusted with power have, in time, and by slow operations, perverted it into tyranny. - Thomas Jefferson

Originally posted by SLAYER69
reply to post by Rockpuck

 

Whats the spread?
I'll take some of that and place another bet on India.
Didn't India just come out a little while ago with a new home made Main Battle Tank using some of the latest technology?

edit on 15-9-2011 by SLAYER69 because: (no reason given)

Tanks will be useless due to the vast Himalayan Region dividing India and China (unless China uses Pakistan and Tibet as entry points). Air based weapons and Air Force will be the decisive factors if there ever was a conflict between the two. The Naval power might neutralize quickly in the region since it might be too far of a stretch (navigating the sea by ship or subs) for the Chinese to attack the country from either East or West or South even though they have the money to support this.

If you've noticed, China has been a bit keen within the last few years on establishing Naval Bases around India particularly in Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Though officially rejecting the offer from Pakistan, I am not convinced if the thought did cross their mind for them to inject their power in the region.

PAKISTAN

SRI_LANKA

I may be wrong (I usually am ) but doesn't the chinese infrastructure rely more on oil than even we do?

They may have a bajillion man army, but if they ain't got the wheels, then they're stuck. If we wanted to, an oil embargo on China would HURT! them.

Just sayin'

reply to post by hp1229


Oh I know

What I was getting at is that India also has their own home grown defense development industry and is trying to become more self reliant instead of buying foreign made hand me downs like China's 30+ year old Russian built Aircraft Carrier that has a shiny new coat of paint

Originally posted by beezzer
I may be wrong (I usually am

) but doesn't the chinese infrastructure rely more on oil than even we do?

They may have a bajillion man army, but if they ain't got the wheels, then they're stuck. If we wanted to, an oil embargo on China would HURT! them.

Just sayin'

Precisely. This has been the reason for them to fight for what little oil explorations that they can capitalize as the demand has risen significantly locally in China but also to place themselves stratigically surrounding the south east asia as the region's DON, they will need the logistics of a good source of Oil.

CNOOC and other 2 companies from China are busy drilling oil by partnering and/or purchasing oil fields around the world

reply to post by SLAYER69


yeah chinese military might is what?

slap a made in china label on it or just steal technology from the rest of the world

instead of doing what a real super power does invent their own

reply to post by hp1229


With that being their Achilles Heel, we could make them dance.

Kinda makes sense why we're spending so much time/money in the ME.

Originally posted by SLAYER69
reply to post by hp1229

 

Oh I know

What I was getting at is that India also has their own home grown defense development industry and is trying to become more self reliant instead of buying foreign made hand me downs like China's 30+ year old Russian built Aircraft Carrier that has a shiny new coat of paint

edit on 15-9-2011 by SLAYER69 because: (no reason given)

Oh yeah. That is nothing more than the local Defense contractors not able to make money with that model
Chinese Naval Power is not all there yet with respect to other Navys of the world without a doubt. So is their Air Force. What they have added a lot of is the Missiles.

The US based manufacturers of defense hardware place a lot of stipulations and road blocks for the Indian Defense contractors that they do not generally prefer to do business with US or West and thus influence the Procurement to lean towards the Russian hardware. However with the Russian made hardware they have some room to manufacture and support certain percentage of the overall expenditure by the Indian Government since the Russians are not too savvy about the Sustainment and Parts for the equipment they sell to the Indians.

The base price for Russian hardware is much much lower compared to Western hardware but there are plenty of issues with the supply of faulty/used parts from Russia and locally manufactured parts in India for the aircrafts (30 + years old like the Mig 21s and other Russian Hardware(s)).

This rule also applies to the other Russian lineup of planes which are many in addition to the aircraft carrier, and nuclear powered submarine. Indian Defense
Look under the Air Force, Navy and Army links for the equipment lineup. This might not be the latest but it gives a general idea.

The cost has been skyrocketting slowly as the Russians are not dumb either and milking the Indians at the time when they are competing with the Chinese strategically. I am not sure how many times but the Russians did manage to successfully collect the additional funds from India then what was originally agreed or quoted upon
Plenty of news links out there but too lazy to post here

War is a big business globally

Originally posted by beezzer
reply to post by hp1229

 

With that being their Achilles Heel, we could make them dance.

Kinda makes sense why we're spending so much time/money in the ME.

You got it

Do you know how many Chinese Contractors (mostly Engineers of different discipline) currently working in Afghanistan? What for ?

Originally posted by hp1229
(unless China uses Pakistan and Tibet as entry points).

Interesting thought process -

From 2010, but you see where its going.

China, Pak to build highways in PoK

Beijing: China, which plans to have a rail link with Pakistan through the strategic Karakoram ranges, has signed another agreement with the country for building two highways in the disputed Gilgit-Baltistan region in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir close to the Chinese border.

The agreement was signed during Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari's ongoing six-day visit to China.
The two highways are estimated to be built at the cost of Rs 45 Lakh, Pakistan's official APP news agency reported.

Under the agreement, China would meet 85 per cent of the cost while Pakistan would pay for the remaining 15 per cent.

China would build the 165-km Jaglot-Skardu road as well as the 135-km-long Thakot-Sazin road in the disputed region.

The roads, besides the new rail network across the Karakoram pass into Pakistan, would facilitate free movement of goods between the two countries.

India has already expressed its concerns over the proposed rail link.

External Affairs Minister S M Krishna said in New Delhi that "we are closely watching what is happening".

Click link for remainder of the story. whats occured since then? India has deployed another army group near the chinese border, consisting of something like 50k troops and top of the line equipment.

This is from July 2010 - Not coincidental

New division of Army on India-China border

The Indian Army has activated a new division to counter possible Chinese offensive on the Sino-Indian border.

The 71 mountain division in Assam will be under the command of the Tezpur-based 4 Corps.

Earlier, the government had approved two divisions in the north-east for conventional operations to bolster preparedness against China.

The army is working towards raising troops for these but, as of now, there will be internal movement from within the army to start the 71 division, army sources said. Nine new battalions are needed under the new division.

The divisions will mostly have infantry elements, but some armoured assets will also form a part of them at a later stage.

While the 71 division is still organising its infrastructure and cadres, the 56 division with two brigades is in the process of setting up its Orbat (order of battle). Orbat is the command structure, strength, and disposition of personnel, equipment, and units of an armed force during field operations.

A source said: “Re-Orbatting will take place depending on the roles of the brigade.”

China resolved a major border dispute with Russia in 2008. They have been pressuring many South East Asian countries, and dragging up old, and I mean old, territorial claims long since abandoned by China.



India - Pakistan Kashmir. There are also Chinese territorial claims on Kashmir, but it rarely if ever makes the news.

reply to post by Xcathdra

Yep. I have read the news about it including some of the troubled hot spots in the region being funded by both Chinese and Pakistan in the east of India below tibet. Surely terrorize the locals and demand a seperate state or territory which then might join the chinese government in the northeast region.

Amazingly the construction activity is still active with respect to runways, roads and railroad line on the border region between India and China where the Himalayan Terrain is minimal. I wonder what the Indian Government has done so far to respond back to the questionable activities surrounding its borders ?

reply to post by hp1229


What can it do?

* - India, as well as Pakistan and China, knows where it will lead. India can either attack and attempt to resovle the situation - which it wont.

* - It can do limited strikes on the construction, however with China financing the bulk, they will view it as an attack on themselves.

* - It can attempt to resolve through diplomacy, but I dont think it will work because with India and Pakistan, its an all or nothing issue.

* - Or it can maintain the status quo and react to the changes, like they are doing now with the military changes.

Many people dont realize that during the cold war, India was not really aligned with either side. Now days it findws itself warming up to the US, for what I assume is the knowledge that at some point, China is going to do their Charlamagne impression and attempt to bring Mandarin to New Delhi.

I would wager that if full sclae war breaks out, and China is involved, it will not remain conventional for very long.

Also -
China harasses Indian naval ship on South China Sea

And -
India and USA to protect Vietnam from China

At somepoint, a wire is going to be crossed, and over reaction made, and a war will begin. If a war in this area breaks out, I see North Korea taking advantage and acting on their own, if not prodded by China to tie up forces.

As far as the comment about questionable actions near chinese territory, its just that, near and not in. Since any unit is not in territorial waters of China, it falls under freedom of navigation for land and air, and no transgression occured. I think this is why China is pushing their interpretation of an EEZ, considering it territorial waters.

reply to post by Xcathdra


Currently there are too many hot spots around Middle East and South East Asian regions.

Lets wait and see. Most probably nothing will come out of it for now.

Originally posted by hp1229
reply to post by Xcathdra

 

Currently there are too many hot spots around Middle East and South East Asian regions.

Lets wait and see. Most probably nothing will come out of it for now.

Possibly... however, China is going to push one of those countries to hard, and I see the country responding to china, but not by military means. I can see Vietnam, Phillipines, etc intitiate plans to develop resources that are in dispute / claimed by China.

Hell china just recently sent 2 warships into Japanese territorial waters that China claims as their own. They not only did this, they did it when Japan had NO Prime Minister.

China is growing bold....

Originally posted by hp1229

Originally posted by SLAYER69
reply to post by Rockpuck

 

Whats the spread?
I'll take some of that and place another bet on India.
Didn't India just come out a little while ago with a new home made Main Battle Tank using some of the latest technology?

edit on 15-9-2011 by SLAYER69 because: (no reason given)

Tanks will be useless due to the vast Himalayan Region dividing India and China (unless China uses Pakistan and Tibet as entry points). Air based weapons and Air Force will be the decisive factors if there ever was a conflict between the two. The Naval power might neutralize quickly in the region since it might be too far of a stretch (navigating the sea by ship or subs) for the Chinese to attack the country from either East or West or South even though they have the money to support this.

If you've noticed, China has been a bit keen within the last few years on establishing Naval Bases around India particularly in Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Though officially rejecting the offer from Pakistan, I am not convinced if the thought did cross their mind for them to inject their power in the region.

PAKISTAN

SRI_LANKA

edit on 15-9-2011 by hp1229 because: (no reason given)

Your scenario seems predicated upon a Chinese invasion of India, but the analysis leaves a crucial part out, which Slayer was pointing out, somewhat less than obviously.

India has a new tech MBT. Those tanks are In India, and already live there, having been manufactured there. If China were to invade, Chinese troops would ALSO be IN India.

Right where those new tech MBTs live.

Without their OWN MBTs. That mountain crossing, remember? China left theirs at home.

Now in all seriousness, China would probably bring their own tanks to the party, too.

Through those narrow mountain passes.

I'll tell you right now, the Soviets found that maneuver to be a bit of a problem in Afghanistan. Tank + narrow mountain pass + pissed off defenders = a big, armored microwave oven. One with a long way to fall to get to the bottom of the mountain. Air power couldn't even help the Soviets in the mountains. Hit the defenders on a road, watch the road crumble away to the bottom of the gorge. Nowhere for the tank to go, then. That's not to mention the tricky maneuvers mountains impose on helicopter flight.

Tanks + mountains = bad juju.

Troops - armor support = a shooting gallery.

I don't expect China to invade India any more than I expect China to invade the US.

An invasion by sea is even less likely. They'd have to stage nearby to get enough troops massed up, and that would be impossible to hide. India would be ready by the time they crossed the border, just like Vietnam was - but India is a bit bigger than Vietnam.

reply to post by nenothtu


Only flaw I see in your observations is the existence of a massive amount as well as production of chinese surface to air and surface to surface missiles. That doctrine was developed for and still in use against Tiawan. The number of missiles pointing at them is huge, and done for a reason.

All China would need to do is use that capability in their initial offense in India (under war time of course). Take out the factories, which will be targeted along with Indian highway / road / rail and airport infrastructure.

India may maintain some tactical advantage to start with, but could quickly find themselves in a pickle.

We are also ignoring Pakistan. They would almost side with China and would most likely jump in on their side since they dont care for India anymore than china does. might as well help China against India with the hopes of removing a mortal enemy while gaining territory and resources.

It also ignores the possibility of China pre positioning forces in Pakistan. The chinese side does have a road network, so getting supplies / tanks to the region would be somehwat easy. The problem is crossing the mountainous terrain, which is not impossible. They have the ability to lift heavy equipment using planes / helicopters.

Well lets just hope it's all just saber rattling. I doubt China will come out swinging anytime soon. There is too much at stake. But still I'd keep an eye on them

It has been often speculated that the next big war would involve countries over access to resources? Perhaps, this situation over the South China Sea is the warning shots over the bow? Hopefully, the world's powers can come together to mediate this dispute before military confrontation occurs between the nation's at odds with each other over the region? I suppose nations who feel they are being unfairly muscled by China can take this matter before the UN and see what happens with that? Then, if that does not work, the only other option would be militarizing the region. I do not see China budging in the slightest over this issue, because they need whatever territory and resources available to placate their massive population.

Of course, somewhere down the road the US is going to have to take sides or least bolster its naval presence in the South China Sea. This will no doubt enrage the Chinese. However, since the end of WWII the United States has been relied upon to maintain maritime security and ensure the shipping lanes remain open in the event hostilities break out in the South China Sea or any region of the Pacific. Any war involving China would be messy, and could be disastrous for all involved. My hope is that a diplomatic solution can be arranged between the opposing powers over access and rights to the region with international law and historical precedence being taken into account. However at this juncture, it would appear the Chinese have already dug their heels into the ground and are subtly throwing their weight around before any negotiations or settlements can be made? Well just have to wait and see what happens?

reply to post by Xcathdra


I agree - the Chinese missile threat is a serious problem for India. I was just addressing the tank issue. I'm not sure what the ranges of current generation Chinese missiles are, but I'd be willing to bet that they could cover India. For a ground invasion, it would be better to stage in Pakistan and cross the border in the Thar Desert or the Punjab rather than across the mountains. In that event, the build up during the staging would certainly not go unnoticed, since India already keep a weather eye on Pakistan.

A softening up with a missile strike first would surely cripple India, but I don't think it would count them out.