China warns India and Vietnam : Do not do oil exploration in the South China Sea

reply to post by Jakes51


In addition to the South China sea, the Artic has been heating up. With recent discoveries of resources under the ocean there, countries have been pulling out the flags and launching them like lawn jarts to claim territory.

US, Canada, Russia, Denmark (Greenland) and a couple of other countries are involved in that one.

Hopefully enough resources will be located to share the wealth so to speak.

reply to post by nenothtu


In terms of missile technology, China is light years ahead of India. China has their own versions of ICBM's, which India is still working on (so far I wold say their missile ability is regional only).

I think China could easily offset a lack of tanks in the area with thier missile abilities.

All things considered, a nightmare scenario in the making.

Originally posted by nenothtu

Originally posted by hp1229

Originally posted by SLAYER69
reply to post by Rockpuck

 

Whats the spread?
I'll take some of that and place another bet on India.
Didn't India just come out a little while ago with a new home made Main Battle Tank using some of the latest technology?

edit on 15-9-2011 by SLAYER69 because: (no reason given)

PAKISTAN

SRI_LANKA

edit on 15-9-2011 by hp1229 because: (no reason given)

Your scenario seems predicated upon a Chinese invasion of India, but the analysis leaves a crucial part out, which Slayer was pointing out, somewhat less than obviously.

India has a new tech MBT. Those tanks are In India, and already live there, having been manufactured there. If China were to invade, Chinese troops would ALSO be IN India.

Without their OWN MBTs. That mountain crossing, remember? China left theirs at home.
Tanks + mountains = bad juju.
Troops - armor support = a shooting gallery.
An invasion by sea is even less likely.

edit on 2011/9/15 by nenothtu because: (no reason given)

I agree. However when did India ever invade a country? Naturally they maintain the defensive posture and thus the scenario was predicated on the Chinese invasion. Now the naval scenario is nothing more than a distraction by the Chinese to keep some of the Indian Naval, Air and Army forces occupied while they work on their real core offensive scenarios.

On the other hand, I seriously think that crossing the border will be a nightmare for the Chinese (especially the Himalayas). The only thing I can think of is the buildup of the logistics for the Army around the flat border regions between India and China where the terrain is not too steep and tank friendly (Air strips, Railroads, Bases and Bunkers). These are the problematic areas as those can be used to bring the Chinese MBT's across. However I'm sure the intelligence agencies on both sides are aware of the activities of each other.

On a side note, saw the below article about the MBT's. Traditionally India is known to present refined and innovative ideas with respect to many technologies not just the Military Hardware. However the problem lies with the quality and ability to maintain the equipment and provide a reliable vehicle. There are several stale projects that the corrupt government entities within use as nothing more than public showcase of technological prowess and to control the vote bank politics only to pocket billions for themselves and their pet contractors within India.

Needless to say that the same exists on the Chinese side where what the world sees is definitely not the reality. There is a another thread on the financial crisis awaiting China on ATS. Having few prototypes of something doesn't mean a thing until it hits the production lines and starts using the equipment in the active military service(s) (even for war games). Logistics, Sustainment and the buzz word very common these days 'Supply Chain' is very very important Only US has been very successful on maintaining these aspects in check with all the major/minor conflicts thousands of miles away in another continent that they've entered through their brief history.

With that typed, does anyone have any data comparing the chinese and Indian MBTs? I know the thread is not about the military equipment but just for the heck of it?

MBT

Originally posted by Xcathdra
reply to post by nenothtu

 

Only flaw I see in your observations is the existence of a massive amount as well as production of chinese surface to air and surface to surface missiles. The number of missiles pointing at them is huge, and done for a reason.

And they are cheap chinese versions which are used throughout the world such as in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Africa , Syria, Iran, Hezbollah... etc Easy to manufacture and use. Look at the amount N Korea has pointing towards the south Does anyone have a brief ratio with respect to the Air Force equipment on both sides? Internet figures can be misleading on many sites.

But definitely the Pakistan angle is another factor as they were begging the chinese to setup a naval base in Pakistan. Same goes for Sri Lanka where the chinese provided a lot to put an end to the LTTE problem.

Originally posted by Xcathdra
reply to post by nenothtu

 

In terms of missile technology, China is light years ahead of India. China has their own versions of ICBM's, which India is still working on (so far I wold say their missile ability is regional only).
I think China could easily offset a lack of tanks in the area with thier missile abilities.

All due thanks to Stolen Tech from the West in addition to Russia after it went down economically. To keep the candidacy open for the # 2 Super Power, a technical exodus took place between Russia and China (ofcourse for money) during the 90's.

LINK

Presidente Bush claimed the entire Marianas Trench as a "US National Marine Monument" and bans all countries from going below the water line.


Why shouldn't China have a right to the South China Sea?

We own all the rest of the oceans.

No matter how hard we tried, China could deny access to the South China sea.

We aren't willing to lose a Aircraft Carrier. Even though we have 11 of them plus several in mothball...losing just 1 would be politically bad.

China has 1 aircraft carrier. If they lose that.... 1.3 Billion Chinamen will be demanding Global War. It wouldn't end until they were all dead, or we were.

Originally posted by Pervius
Presidente Bush claimed the entire Marianas Trench as a "US National Marine Monument" and bans all countries from going below the water line.

Actually no he did not -
Marianas Trench Marine National Monument
Marine National Monument MapG

The Islands Unit includes only the waters and submerged lands of the three northernmost Mariana Islands, Farallon de Pajaros or Uracas, Maug, and Asuncion, below the mean low water line.

The reason its just that area is because of - Northern Mariana Islands

The Northern Mariana Islands, officially the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), is a commonwealth in political union with the United States, occupying a strategic region of the western Pacific Ocean. It consists of 15 islands about three-quarters of the way from Hawaii to the Philippines. The United States Census Bureau reports the total land area of all islands as 179.01 square miles (463.63 km2).

Since the territory is a part of the United States via the Marianas Commonwealth, President Bush was within his authority and the antiquity act to establish it as a National Park.

Your claim of the entire trench is incorrect, and by extension the rationale going along with it as an excuse for other countries to make claims.

Originally posted by Pervius
Why shouldn't China have a right to the South China Sea?

Well for starters there are other, recognized, sovereign countries in that part of the world. If China has claims, then they never should have recognized those countries, or agrred to UN resolutions / Law on this topic. China lays claims to the entire South China Sea, regardless of how little the territorial claim is.

Under Internatioanl Law / UN a countries territorial waters is 10-12 miles form shore.
A countries Exclusive Economic Zone extends out 200 miles. It does not make this territory sovereign. It ONLY allows the exploitation of resources located within the zone. There cannot be a disruption / challenge to freedom of navigation - sea or air.

Originally posted by Pervius
We own all the rest of the oceans.

Actually we dont. What the Us does, as well as other countries who engage in international trade or those who have a green / blue water navy, conduct whats called freedom of navigation, as well as patrolling international waters for piracy.

Freedom of Navigation / Piracy issues are handeled through the UN, and they are very specific guidelines for both.

What China is doing would be the equivelant of the United States telling Mexico, Cuba, the UK, etc etc that the entire Guld of Mexico belongs to the US and not one else can do anything in it.

It doesnt work that way, and any attempt for China to enfore that rationale is going to fall under an act of war.

Originally posted by Pervius
No matter how hard we tried, China could deny access to the South China sea.

To an extent, and even then they would quickly lose that ability. China's navy is brown water, although they are trying to upgrade it to Blue water (brown water = close to shores / Green water is regional / blue water = world wide projection).

The busiest shipping lanes in the world, along with a large chunk of internatioanl trade (products and oil) flow through that area of the world. If China wants to claim it, thats their issue. However, aside from the US, other countries would go crackers as well, and China would not only be facing military confrontation, but the added loss of world markets for their products, as well as resources that they need, mainly oil (sanctions).

Originally posted by Pervius
We aren't willing to lose a Aircraft Carrier. Even though we have 11 of them plus several in mothball...losing just 1 would be politically bad.

Any loss of life is bad. However, there are times when the people of the Us put aside differences and recognize when something is a legitimate issue, and will recognize that sacrifice is required. Im not saying it would be popular nor would there be unanimous support, but in the end support for military actions would be there.

Basing a reaction of the loss of military assets is dangerous, and can often lead countries to a wrong conclusion. As an example, when Bush was president he was not liked by many democrats. However, when chavez spouted off about Bush, the Democrats back Bush.

Countries tend to confuse our political divide as an exploit, when in reality its anything but. The carrier China has is old and out of date. They are also about 20-30 years behind the Us in that technology. Showing up to a gun fight is one thing, but when you bring a musket, your chances of survival drop dramatically.

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I'm surprised that countries in southeast Asia haven't bothered to get along better with their neighbors to form a southern-Pacific alliance. Something like a NATO-style defensive treaty including India, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia, Phillipines, various South-Pacific Island countries, and maybe even Australia. All those countries forming a protective treaty with each other would give quite a message to the Chinese government.

If it wasn't for all the squabbling between all those countries, China would have much less reason to be as bold as it is now. As long as those neighbors can't get along well enough to cover each other, then other players vying for the region are going to use that as leverage against them.

reply to post by pauljs75


I think there is some sort of agreement I forget what it's called or who alls in it.

Originally posted by SLAYER69
reply to post by pauljs75

 

I think there is some sort of agreement I forget what it's called or who alls in it.

ANZUS is the main alliance dealing with the US, Austrailia and New Zealand. Diplomatic / Military relations with other Asian countries fall under the basic bilateral accords.

Also, ASEAN Aliiance -

is a geo-political and economic organization of ten countries located in Southeast Asia, which was formed on 8 August 1967 by Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.[8] Since then, membership has expanded to include Brunei, Burma (Myanmar), Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam. Its aims include the acceleration of economic growth, social progress, cultural development among its members, the protection of regional peace and stability, and to provide opportunities for member countries to discuss differences peacefully.[9]

Currently India is exploring the possibility to setting up a new, borader Asian alliance to counter Chinese agression.


As a side note I guess I need to go back to the drawing board on my new avatar lol..

/facepalm

There used to be something called SEATO (Southeast Asia Treaty Organization) but it fell apart in the 1970s.

In addition to the now defunct SEATO there is also the ABCA Armies Program (Australia, UK, Canada, and US), the UKUSA Agreement on intelligence and defense assistance among the US, UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand, and the AUSCANNZUKUS defense plan.

Let's not forget that Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, and the Solomon Islands are all British Commonwealth realms and would likely assist each other in a war - as occurred in World War II, Korea, and Vietnam.

Undeterred India to hunt for oil in South China Sea

Brushing aside China's warning on Thursday asking countries "outside the region" to stay away from the South China Sea, foreign minister SM Krishna told his Vietnam counterpart Pham Binh Minh that India's ONGC Videsh will go ahead with oil and gas exploration in the disputed region or the two offshore blocks which Vietnam claims as its own.

Government sources said that the Vietnam authorities "fully endorsed" Krishna when he made the point that, despite Beijing's opposition, India will go ahead with oil and gas exploration in the region.

India, Vietnam to increase defence, security cooperation

India and Vietnam Friday agreed to add greater content to their bilateral relations in defence and security, even as both sides are considering a request for Indian assistance in training Vietnamese naval crew to operate Russian-made Kilo-class submarines.

India and Vietnam are telling China to mind their own business... we'll see what China does when India comes for oil and gas...

Any conflict between India, and China that results in bullets flying would, almost certainly, draw the United States in as well.

Granted it was over half a century ago, but TPTB in China remember only too well what happened the last time they went head to head with a modern power. I don't think they can, politically, handle the sorts of causulties that another conflict with two powers of the capabilities of India and the United States would entail.

China is another revolution waiting to happen. Muslim unrest in several areas has been reported in recent years. The young generation in China is always in a state of civil unrest waiting to happen. Large causulties might just be the trigger event for a second Long March... ...and the PTB's in China know this.

Much of this is merely bluster. Nothing more. China has far too much to lose.

reply to post by seagull


Any shooting war between the 2 will spiral out of control and drag in other countries...

Pakistan will side with china since India is their arch nemesis... Most likely Sri Lanka will support Indians enemies... Namgladesh will prol take advantage an attack India as well... You will see Vietnam, Laos and maybe a few others down there side with India only to the extent of dealing with China.

I can see North Korea, on their own or prodded by China, to roll across the DMZ. Japan and South Korea will respond. Taiwan will be attacked by China, essentially being carpet bombed by China.

Russia will be the wild card, as will Europe and Africa / South America.

Whats the saying...

One swft kick and the whole rotten mess will come down.

Whats worse is the mindset now days... I cant see this being for limited strategic advantages. With the tech and proliferation of wmds, it will be a fight to the finsih.

reply to post by Vitchilo



Interesting.... From Howstuffworks - is china colonizing Africa and preparing for an economic war?

reply to post by Xcathdra


That's certainly a worse case scenario you got there... ...and you may be right. I hope not.

I just don't see it escalating to a shooting match between the various alliances that would indeed form... All sides have far too much to lose, at least as I'm looking at it.

China really has no wish to piss off their biggest trading partner which is the United States. ...and a shootin' war with India would do it.

I actually see Pakistan backing India in a conflict in the region. My thinking runs thus... 1) If India is defeated by China. That leaves China as the big dog in the region. ...and recent events have shown that the US may be rethinking its alliance with Pakistan. If that's the case, there is no trip-line or buffer between the little dogs in the region, and China. Pakistan doesn't like India, India doesn't like Pakistan, but necessity makes for strange bedfellows...

'course my expertise in reading tealeaves, and predicting geopolitical events leaves much to be desired. So I could be way off the mark.

reply to post by seagull

China is another revolution waiting to happen.

Well thanks to Bernanke and his insane printing policies. China knows this... As we know there were something like 200 000 protests in China in 2010... and it was still going up. I wonder what the Chinese would do if the government ``unified them against a common enemy``... probably do like every population and stick with the government.

Large causulties might just be the trigger event for a second Long March.

Funded again by the west?

Most likely Sri Lanka will support Indians enemies.

Yep.

You will see Vietnam, Laos and maybe a few others down there side with India only to the extent of dealing with China.

Yep.

I can see North Korea, on their own or prodded by China, to roll across the DMZ.

No way North Korea can do that without SUBSTANTIAL help from China. And I mean, it would take at least a few years of preparation to do that to put the NK army up to date to even have a chance in hell to make it just near Seoul. They would need lots of food and fuel... months beforehand, for training and getting in shape. Lots of new equipment... which they would have to give from their own supply.

Japan and South Korea will respond.

South Korea is forced to respond. So is the US. Japan... Japan is bankrupt. Sure they would help, but not THAT much. Koreans hate Japanese more than NKoreans.

Taiwan will be attacked by China, essentially being carpet bombed by China.

And Taiwan will be taken over in less than 3 days.

Russia will be the wild card, as will Europe and Africa / South America.

Europe is bankrupt and quite busy. Russia indeed is the wild card... Russia is scared of China... so maybe they would side with them to get on their good side... or stay neutral... who knows.


I don't think it will kick off anyways. Maybe a little skirmish here and there but nothing serious.

India shrugs off China warnings on oil exploration

Shrugging off Chinese warnings, India's state-run oil firm ONGC said on Friday it would press ahead with long-term partner Vietnam in exploring the disputed South China Sea for oil.

ONGC is expected to resume drilling next year at one of its two blocks in the mineral and fuel-rich South China Sea, where Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei also have claims.

The Indian statement came a day after Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said oil and gas exploration activities carried out by a foreign company without the approval of China were illegal and invalid.

But the Chinese state-run Global Times, in a hard hitting editorial, has said Vietnam's efforts to bring in foreign companies to explore for oil amount to a "serious political provocation".

We'll see next year.