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Umm, yes, we do know. It is called science. Once you know some science, you can remove half the uncertainty in your life. Elenin is one thing you DON'T have to worry about.
If you continue to ignore all evidence and the hundreds of years of carefully developed science, your view of the world is forever controlled by fear of this and that. If you learn some mathematics, physics, basic chemistry and biology, etc, you can finally understand what contingencies can be completely and totally ruled out. They no longer become a concern.
People who understand science do not worry about comets turning out to be harbingers of death and/or colliding with earth, and they are NEVER wrong.
Yes, comets can hit the earth and have done so in the past.
But science can predict orbits with tremendous accuracy. A comet cannot be on a course that will miss earth by as much as Elenin and then suddenly decide to change its mind and start on a collision course with earth.
Now you claim that science is 100% accurate. Would you like me to go into the annuls of history and provide detailed exampled of how science has been proven wrong time and time again.
Everything is a probability.
More of your statements with nothing to back it up.
It is called realism.
You like to claim exactly what this comet will do based on repetition of events, well guess what - based on that same belief, based on repetition of human actions and predictions, I can say with utmost certainty that humans are incapable of determining the outcome of anything.
If you believe that science is anything more than educated guesswork, then you have obviously not payed attention to any scientific developments for the past two centuries.
Once again, your arrogance precedes you as you claim that you know ALL of the forces in outer space that might be acting on a comet.
My claims are nothing more than possibilities and the burden of proof does not lie on me. This is my topic.
Your ignorance makes you fail to realize that I don't really care about elenin whatsoever. Sure I have a passing interest because I read the topics, but you and many others obviously miss the point of this topic and continue to do so time and time again.
I am simply stating that the possibility is there.
Why? Ya can't see the darn things without very specialized equipment.
the other bodies in the system would likely be "used" to it
I would rather check multiple sources before I scream "liar".
Once again, science has been proven wrong time and time again, and I have no doubt that some of the things you people perceive as absolute 100% fact will be proven wrong in the future as well. This is a repeating story and it is not about to stop on account of us. /quote]
Please provide an example. You are likely to be confusing developing theories with the issue of uncertainty.
Except for the numerous times that comets HAVE collided with the Earth you mean? They are NEVER wrong... except for in those cases.
Can you give us an example of a comet collision with Earth? You appear to be misrepresenting the issue. I'm not surprised.
There it is. The scientific communities assumption, that once again, we account for everything that takes place in space and the universe, that we are somehow able to predict, with utmost certainty, that NOTHING will interfere with the orbit of a celestial body... even though *gasp* it has happened in the past. This is the "know-it-all" mentality that I spoke of in my OP.
You are purposely confusing independent events - yet another logical fallacy.
you insult me
Informing you of your mistakes is not an insult. If you are insulted, then avoid public forums where people point out mistakes.
People who so self righteously believe that their "science" is 100% accurate, fail to accept the fact that science was wrong many times in the past, even in recent times, and that science does not take in the chance or probability that something might affect whatever it is they are talking about. [/quotes]
Ranting such straw man arguments time and again does not provide support for your claims.
BUT, to flat out deny the possibility that something could affect the comet, that there is no chance whatsoever that something would change the outlook of where this thing is headed - that is big headed ignorance and it is running RAMPANT on ATS and in the academic world.
As I have pointed out several times an object moves because of the forces acting upon it. No force is out there to affect the motion of Elenin to cause us any danger.
Your continued tirade simply shows how little you understand about these matters. Science is a self correcting system. It questions everything - even what is believed to be well established. Please learn what probabilities really mean and then you can be a more informed poster.
Originally posted by DJW001
reply to post by Human0815
Imo. the whole Elenin Story is a wonderful Case-Study for everyone who want to
get a Doctor-Title, maybe even a Professor !
I'm seriously considering writing a paper entitled: "Elenin-mania: Mass Hysteria in the Age of the Internet." Seriously.
Originally posted by filosophia
Dooms day comet or whatever it is, code named elenin? Sounds too much of a coincidence.
I don't see it being meaty enough for a thesis or dissertation... you'd really have to work that one six ways from Monday to get anything more than a conference paper.
Originally posted by DJW001
reply to post by gwydionblack
It is orbiting our Sun. What else could it possibly be orbiting? If you don't believe the orbital parameters are correct, then that just blows the "alignment" theory out of the water, doesn't it? All of those theories are based on the JPL's orbital visualizer, right? So who are you going to believe?
Comet Hale–Bopp (formally designated C/1995 O1) was perhaps the most widely observed comet of the 20th century, and one of the brightest seen for many decades. It was visible to the naked eye for a record 18 months, twice as long as the previous record holder, the Great Comet of 1811. Hale–Bopp was discovered on July 23, 1995, at a great distance from the Sun, raising expectations that the comet would brighten considerably by the time it passed close to Earth. Although predicting the brightness of comets with any degree of accuracy is very difficult, Hale–Bopp met or exceeded most predictions when it passed perihelion on April 1, 1997. The comet was dubbed the Great Comet of 1997.
Comet Elenin Self-Destructs
I guess all those pseudoscientific bloggers who predicted planet-altering encounters with a cosmic visitor bright enough to be seen in broad daylight will just have to find something else to worry about.
As many readers already know, Comet Elenin has begun the irreversible process of breaking up.
This applet is provided as a 3D orbit visualization tool. The applet was implemented using 2-body methods, and hence should not be used for determining accurate long-term trajectories (over several years or decades) or planetary encounter circumstances.
You'll see that if you use it for Halley's 1910 apparition the perihelion occurred on October 13. It actually occurred on April 20th. The applet is inaccurate over that time span. Very inaccurate. Swift-Tuttle was discovered in July of 1862. It had nothing to do with the Carrington event
Potential threat to Earth The comet is on an orbit which puts it close to the Earth and the Moon. Upon its 1992 rediscovery, the comet's date of perihelion passage was off from the then-current prediction by 17 days. It was then noticed that, if its next perihelion passage (August 14, 2126) was also off by another 15 days, the comet would very likely strike the Earth or Moon. Given the size of the nucleus of Swift–Tuttle, this was of some concern. This prompted amateur astronomer and writer Gary W. Kronk to search for previous apparitions of this comet. He found the comet was most likely observed by the Chinese in 69 BC and AD 188, which was quickly confirmed by Brian G. Marsden. This information and subsequent observations have led to recalculation of its orbit, which indicates the comet's orbit is very stable, and that there is absolutely no threat over the next two thousand years. Astronomers believe that in the 2126 pass it will likely be a great naked-eye comet like Hale–Bopp.