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It is impossible to forecast when the next eruption will occur at Taupo, or what size it will be. The best available information shows that there is no relationship between the size of eruption and the time break between eruptions. The next eruption might be next year, or not for hundreds of years. It might produce a small lava dome, or it might destroy the central North Island as the volcano has done in the past. All that is certain, is that Taupo will erupt again.
Some interesting facts about Taupo
Taupo is the most frequently active and productive rhyolite volcano in the world.
Taupo caldera (collapsed crater) occupies about the same area as metropolitan Auckland.
The last 26,000 years have seen about 28 major eruptions, separated in time by between 50 and 5000 years. There is no simple pattern to these eruptions that would suggest when or where the next event might occur.
Volcanoes are unpredictable and are not well understood. Also there have not been many rhyolite eruptions world-wide in historic times to give us clues about what to expect. Nearly all caldera eruptions are preceded by weeks to months of local earthquakes. These can be expected to increase in number and strength as the eruption approaches, and will not die away after a few days such as swarms of earthquakes have done at Taupo in the past. The recognition of these earthquakes as volcanic in origin is essential and will rely on detailed scientific monitoring and analysis. Caldera volcanoes worldwide are subject to seismic swarms-clusters of close-spaced small earthquakes.
Of course, none of the eruptions this year have been very large, mostly just look really quite impressive, and spectacular.
Originally posted by FermiFlux
Thanks for the info, I wasn't aware of a supervolcano in Taupo until now. Turns out Lake Taupo itself is a product of the Oruanui eruption that occured 26,500 years ago (which was the last eruption of the supervolcano)
Slightly off topic but is it just me or is that "26,500 years ago" phrase used more often than not concerning prophecies and date setting for impending disasters? Meh, maybe its just me
Four earthquakes, three of them measuring more than four on the Richter scale, rattled the Gisborne area in just over an hour today.
Two 4.2 magnitude earthquakes struck at 12.39pm and 12.53pm, both centred 30km south of Gisborne at a depth of 25km, GNS Science reported.
At 1.01pm a 3.3 magnitude earthquake struck in the same place, followed another earthquake measuring 4.1 at a depth of 30km at 2pm.