Monster Blizzard may shut down East Coast Sunday and Monday

reply to post by ProfEmeritus


So....this "Monster Blizaard" (from your thread title) is somehow going to be far, far worse that just ten months ago, in the same region?? Does "Henry" usually tend to such hyperbole?

How soon the rest of the Country (World?) has forgotten the "snowpocalypse"??:

11:29AM GMT 06 Feb 2010
Transport networks were preparing to shut down and residents were warned they could be forced to spend up to five days indoors. The forecast was for 2.5 feet (0.76 metres) of snow to fall, and for blizzard conditions.

Heavy snowfall has already been blamed for hundreds of accidents and the deaths of a father and son who were trying to help a crashed motorist in Virginia.

Or, maybe it's time to incite "PANIC"!?

The flakes hadn't even begun flying before fear of the impending "snowpocalypse" began sweeping the nation's capital this week. Now, as the city hunkers down for what meteorologists predict will be a "historic" storm, District of Columbia residents are abuzz with a collective mania many say they've never seen before.

abcnews.go.com...

What was the "prediction" again? 28 inches?? Pffffttt!

Originally posted by ProfEmeritus
Sure, the government does everything right.

lol

I doubt anyone or any organisation does everything right.

In this case of severe weather possibly causing harm to citzens I think it is important for the government/media to really drill home the message of preperation

Although the news is using fear based motivation to get people into action, the point is they are getting people to listen and heed the warning

So, anyway..... there's this blizzard, we might as well talk about it!

A couple of webcam links. Presently, you can see that in New London CT it doesn't even seem to be snowing:

www.conncoll.edu...

Whereas in Jackson, NJ, there are near white out conditions and the snow is really piling up. (At least three inches since I started watching around 11:30)

www.ustream.tv...

The two locations give you a good idea of the progress of the storm as it moves North.

An NYC webcam at 7th and Broadway (Flash)

www.earthcam.com...

Looks very windy, but traffic is moving.

Say what you like. The point is that we here in the mid-Atlantic are in the midst of a blizzard. Even the NWS has FINALLY gotten on board:

..BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS: TWELVE TO EIGHTEEN INCHES.

* TIMING: NOW OCCURRING AND ENDING AROUND 9 AM MONDAY. THE GREATEST INTENSITY WILL BE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

* WINDS: NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO OVER 40 MPH EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

Why do some of the members here have to be so nasty?

Just a final note. This is one of only a very FEW thread predictions on ATS that actually came true:

Blizzards Shuts Down Areas from New York City to Boston!

www.accuweather.com...
Now those who scoffed at this thread can go back to creating their threads that the world is coming to an end due to global warming, the world will end in 2012, all the leaders of the world are reptilians, and Elvis is still alive.

Originally posted by ProfEmeritus
Just a final note. This is one of only a very FEW thread predictions on ATS that actually came true:

Blizzards Shuts Down Areas from New York City to Boston!

www.accuweather.com...
Now those who scoffed at this thread can go back to creating their threads that the world is coming to an end due to global warming, the world will end in 2012, all the leaders of the world are reptilians, and Elvis is still alive.

Yay it seems some predictions actually do come true , who would have thought Even our main national news agency is running a segment on this event today . From the clips and photos that I saw on TV it does look like people were completely unprepared for what hit them :/ .. I wonder do people in the states know what "winter tires" are ? (This is not a ridicule , just a simple question out of curiosity )

Originally posted by ProfEmeritus
reply to post by melatonin

 

All the PRIVATE Accuweather dude did was make a determination which GOVERNMENT-funded model he thought was mostly correct. While other meteorologists were still hedging bets.

No, you are COMPLETELY WRONG.
Henry said that every one of the models were wrong. He felt that they were all relying on, or placing too much emphasis on past performance, and ignoring the likelihood of triple phasing, which indeed is what took place with this storm. In addition, yesterday's 12Z GFS, and NAM's had faulty initializations, and in fact, the NWS suggested throwing them out, and sending planes into the storm to sample actual readings. Of course, if you are not a meteorologist, and you are not, most of this will be way over your head anyway.I talked to Henry- you DIDN'T, so your "assumptions" are QUITE WRONG.
Then again, this is what you seem to do with all of the Fragile Earth threads, so I shouldn't be surprised. For once, why not just stick to the facts, and if you don't know them, let those that do, present them?

The GFS, Euro, UKMO and most other models struggle to forecast severe cold. I find that the most accurate one, during our cold spell here in the UK has been the UKMO. The GFS has been quite poor. The models base future weather on past weather so it can be hard for them. I always find they try to force back in the warmer weather way before it actually comes back in. They seem to struggle with deep cold air, if its deep cold it takes a lot to shift it.

Snow precip is also pretty difficult to predict. Locally some areas can have 2-3-4 times as much as areas just 20 miles away. The best bet is "nowcasting" and radar watchin IMO

reply to post by jrmcleod

The models base future weather on past weather so it can be hard for them. I always find they try to force back in the warmer weather way before it actually comes back in. They seem to struggle with deep cold air, if its deep cold it takes a lot to shift it. Snow precip is also pretty difficult to predict. Locally some areas can have 2-3-4 times as much as areas just 20 miles away. The best bet is "nowcasting" and radar watchin IMO

Yes, I agree. It has always been difficult to forecast Nor'easter s here on the East Coast, because sometimes as little as 20 miles east or west can make a huge different between getting a blizzard and a heavy rain storm.
For such situations, like you, frequently the radar, and current conditions are better, and certainly no worse, than the big models.