Monster Blizzard may shut down East Coast Sunday and Monday

According to Henry Margusity, snowstorm expert for Accuweather, Sunday and Monday may bring a monster blizzard to the East Coast, from Virginia to New England.

Keep in mind that I post a lot more comments on the facebook fan page because it's easier to comment quickly.

As I expected, the GFS has gone to the big storm solution which I expected to see. The new Euro shows the bomb of the decade.

As I said this morning, I expect a storm to come up the coast, but probably not as powerful as the Euro, but probably adjusted west from the GFS. (GFS stands for Global Forecast System, one of the computer models used by weather forecasters) I

www.accuweather.com...

The above link is to the accuweather page, and Henry's blog.
There is a great deal more detail on Henry's Facebook page, which you can get to, from that link, and by selecting him as a fan.

Here are some of his comments from this afternoon, Wednesday, December 22nd.

Henry Margusity Fan Club New Euro has Mega Bomb Off Norfolk Monday morning. 977 mb. Easterly flow all the way back to Ohio.

For those not familiar with the terms, Euro refers to the European forecast model, which is issued several times a day. The reference to Mega Bomb indicates that the pressure will be extremely low, with isobars wrapped tightly around the low pressure. The flow all the way back to Ohio indicates that precipitation will extend back that far.
Here is another comment from Henry:

Henry Margusity Fan Club ‎1.70 inches of liquid shown on the Euro for Philly. 1.50+ liquid in NYC.

The liquid refers to water equivalent precipitation from this storm. A rough rule of thumb is that for each inch of liquid precipitation, you get approximately 10 inches of snow, but sometimes the ratio can be as high as 18 to 1.

He further indicates:

Henry Margusity Fan Club - So basically the Euro is showing a swath of 12-24 inches of snow from Virginia to southern New England which would include the big cities.

For those that want to keep up to date on that, "fan" Henry, as he constantly updates this with new information.

Just an update, today, Christmas Day.
This thread was posted on the 22nd, based upon the forecast on winter weather EXPERT, Henry Margusity of Accuweather in State College. The National Weather Service (US government) and all of their computer models were saying that this storm was going WAY out to sea. In fact, right up until this morning, the NWS was still saying that the I95 area would get no snow, except for Northern New England.
This again, shows how USELESS the US government is, when it gets into businesses it should not be in. The PRIVATE Accuweather nailed this storm, specifically Henry Margusity, who even after seeing all of the computer models, said that the models were DEAD WRONG, and that the East coast was going to get nailed with a paralyzing blizzard. It looks like once again, Private companies PROVE that the government can't do ANYTHING right.
Lesson- LESS government is better government.
For those on the East Coast- you won't be going to work Monday.
Get those shovels and snowplows ready. You'll need them starting tomorrow.
For those that want to see Henry's snowfall predictions for the East Coast, here it is:
www.accuweather.com...

The government owns most of the equipment and heavily subsidizes the degrees of most scientists, including meteorologists. Some forecasters thought one model was right, others another, not sure how that becomes fodder for some big point about the ineptitude of government.

Thanks for the info on the storm - I have family on the east coast. Time to stock up, I will send them the accuweather link and inform them. S @ F

Originally posted by quakewatcher
The government owns most of the equipment and heavily subsidizes the degrees of most scientists, including meteorologists. Some forecasters thought one model was right, others another, not sure how that becomes fodder for some big point about the ineptitude of government.

Moreover, the european model (ECMWF) is the product of the intergovernmental cooperation between many European states, lol.

All the PRIVATE Accuweather dude did was make a determination which GOVERNMENT-funded model he thought was mostly correct. While other meteorologists were still hedging bets.

reply to post by ProfEmeritus

This again, shows how USELESS the US government is, when it gets into businesses it should not be in. The PRIVATE Accuweather nailed this storm, specifically Henry Margusity, who even after seeing all of the computer models, said that the models were DEAD WRONG...

Ain't that the truth. My business is weather dependent and I can't tell you how much money I have lost due to bad weather forecasting.

I am pretty good but that does not help if the public weather service is wrong and my customers stay away or cancel.

Actually I am so accurate that the people at the fleamarket I go to have commented. I always show when it is nice and I am always packed up and ready to leave before it starts raining

I have found in my neck of the woods the three day forecast is generally off by 8 to 12 hours.

reply to post by melatonin

All the PRIVATE Accuweather dude did was make a determination which GOVERNMENT-funded model he thought was mostly correct. While other meteorologists were still hedging bets.

No, you are COMPLETELY WRONG.
Henry said that every one of the models were wrong. He felt that they were all relying on, or placing too much emphasis on past performance, and ignoring the likelihood of triple phasing, which indeed is what took place with this storm. In addition, yesterday's 12Z GFS, and NAM's had faulty initializations, and in fact, the NWS suggested throwing them out, and sending planes into the storm to sample actual readings. Of course, if you are not a meteorologist, and you are not, most of this will be way over your head anyway.I talked to Henry- you DIDN'T, so your "assumptions" are QUITE WRONG.
Then again, this is what you seem to do with all of the Fragile Earth threads, so I shouldn't be surprised. For once, why not just stick to the facts, and if you don't know them, let those that do, present them?

The weather has been especially nasty these last couple of weeks. Parts of eastern Canada were declared an emergency situation, enabling the army to come in and help rescue people stranded from the flooding, and help fix the bridges, roads, and houses.
A little bit west of that was a blizzard that kept people stranded in their cars for over a day, again, the army came in with helicopters to rescue people.
And the west coast - California, wow, what a mess with the floods and mudslides.

It's starting out a very bad winter for many. I think I would rather have the snow than the rain when it's measured in feet.
Stay safe people.
Merry Christmas..

reply to post by quakewatcher

The government owns most of the equipment and heavily subsidizes the degrees of most scientists, including meteorologists. Some forecasters thought one model was right, others another, not sure how that becomes fodder for some big point about the ineptitude of government.

See my response to Melatonin. As a matter of fact, in addition, the NWS still doesn't understand what is happening. They're trying to rely on the models, which keep changing by each run. Henry is using good old fashion methods, good data, good knowledge and good experience. The computer models are only as good as the algorithms, assumptions, and data they are fed, and in this case, they were all off.
It is true that the Euro model was closest and most consistent, but even that went OTS in several late runs.The GFS was basically useless for most of the last 6 runs up to last night. I think the modelers were busy fudging changes to bring the models back in line to what Henry was predicting, and yes, the NWS was on the phone with Henry quite a bit last night.

I'm not really sure what this thread is all about.I'm in New Hampshire, and the forecast for Sunday is a POSSIBILITY of 6-10 inches of snow.That is nothing.We do that every year standing on our heads.
Hardly a "MONSTER" storm......

The snowfall amount expected is nothing to outrageous. Anywhere from 6-15 inches depending on where you live. However, there should be some strong winds which could be more problematic than the snow.

Well one things undeniable this season, the unusual early cold, we are and have been below normal temps for over a month now, we have only been above freezing 1 or 2 in the last 45 or so days where I live. But snowfall, not so bad this year so far nothing like when I was growing up.

reply to post by ProfEmeritus

They're trying to rely on the models, which keep changing by each run. Henry is using good old fashion methods, good data, good knowledge and good experience. The computer models are only as good as the algorithms, assumptions, and data they are fed, and in this case, they were all off. It is true that the Euro model was closest and most consistent, but even that went OTS in several late runs.The GFS was basically useless for most of the last 6 runs up to last night. I think the modelers were busy fudging changes to bring the models back in line to what Henry was predicting, and yes, the NWS was on the phone with Henry quite a bit last night.

I have been watching the weather (radar) very closely for more than a decade. This past year the weather patterns have changed. My weather normally comes out of the west. But this year I saw a lot of weather coming in from the east or south.

I think we are seeing a fundamental shift in the weather patterns and the computer programs just keep missing because of that.

Originally posted by ProfEmeritus
reply to post by melatonin

 

No, you are COMPLETELY WRONG.
Henry said that every one of the models were wrong.

Uh-huh. So on the 22nd he said:

Henry Margusity Fan Club - So basically the Euro is showing a swath of 12-24 inches of snow from Virginia to southern New England which would include the big cities.

Today your intepretation of what he said is:

The National Weather Service (US government) and all of their computer models were saying that this storm was going WAY out to sea. In fact, right up until this morning, the NWS was still saying that the I95 area would get no snow, except for Northern New England.
This again, shows how USELESS the US government is, when it gets into businesses it should not be in. The PRIVATE Accuweather nailed this storm, specifically Henry Margusity, who even after seeing all of the computer models, said that the models were DEAD WRONG, and that the East coast was going to get nailed with a paralyzing blizzard.

So the Euro model nailed the storm. It predicted 'a bomb' which would dump snow along the East coast. The American model didn't. The only major difference in his prediction cf. the Euro model is that he originally thought it would not be as extreme:

As I said this morning, I expect a storm to come up the coast, but probably not as powerful as the Euro, but probably adjusted west from the GFS

But in his post of the map he calls it the 'big daddy' (lol, is he for real?), while you suggest it will be a 'paralyzing blizzard'.

Seems the European model did well. Moreover, he appears to simply use both models to make a judgement (hence why he consistently refers to them), but he knows that the European model is generally better (which it is).

ABE: and this is on his twitter...

New York City will be shut down. New England shut Down Monday. Philly 6-12 inches. As bad as a snowstorm can get...

That bad?

NAM has come around to Mega Big Daddy.
about 1 hour ago via Facebook

Now it's upgraded to a 'mega-big-daddy'. I assume that's more powerful than a big daddy, but I'm not well-versed on such childish terminology.

reply to post by crimvelvet

I think we are seeing a fundamental shift in the weather patterns and the computer programs just keep missing because of that.

Yes, and that is my point. The models do not have enough data, based on recent changes, to make accurate forecasts, especially for the East Coast.

reply to post by melatonin

So the Euro model nailed the storm.

On the 22nd, yes. By the 24th though, the Euro model had the storm OTS.
Here is what Henry said yesterday, AFTER most models had the storm OTS.

"I think the storm develops off the Carolinas, moves along the coast. As the upper low comes in from the West and goes neg, it captures the storm, causing the storm to explode."

Here is what he said yesterday at 1:25PM:

Henry Margusity: Probably not going to do a live stream. Euro takes the storm out to sea.. GFS has problems.. Yesterday at 1:25pm ·

As you can see, yesterday, the Euro was OTS.
Despite the models from yesterday, Henry kept insisting that he strongly believed that the storm would go right up the coast, with a big daddy. Henry only uses the term big daddy, when he feels a crippling blizzard is on the way. He even wears his big daddy hat and sweatshirt then. He's had it on the last 5 days.

we have gotten about 1-2 inches the last few hours here in Henry, VA

I have added a picture in my album of the snow today!

Originally posted by ProfEmeritus
]As you can see, yesterday, the Euro was OTS.
Despite the models from yesterday, Henry kept insisting that he strongly believed that the storm would go right up the coast, with a big daddy. Henry only uses the term big daddy, when he feels a crippling blizzard is on the way. He even wears his big daddy hat and sweatshirt then. He's had it on the last 5 days.

I'm not sure such terms are actually that helpful. Suppose it grabs the less attentive.

So, yeah, individual model runs have questionable reliability, especially when the initialisation is questioned (which it was on the 24th). The later runs did move west:

The Euro last night, which we did not highlight in our previous post around Midnight, has shifted west about 150 miles and shows a track that brings a significant snow event to everyone in a classic northeast snowstorm track.

25/12/10
philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com...

The Euro model was predicting this storm for several days, and without it I would stake my favourite woolly scarf that Henry would have predicted little.

He merely parasites the government-funded models. This is clear by his analysis which suggested the storm would be more to the west than GFS (like Euro) but lesser than Euro (like GFS). You see, without these models Henry would be blind. Perhaps accuweather could develop their own with the cash they blag.

Now, of course, the actual outcome won't be known until after the event . The chances are that all got some right and some wrong at some point. Thus, now all the models show snowstorms along the eastern coast. Yet only the Euro model has done so for most of the last week.

You can point out a model run from yesterday which is known to have had initialisation issues, but the Euro model was right. It predicted this storm days ago.

So, in sum, I care little about your snowstorm as we're just thawing out of our own. Just keep warm if you're in its path. The point was that you anti-government rant was pretty misplaced. I'm sure I could find dozens of Henry's predictions which were BS - he just appears keen to pull the trigger on his predictions sourced from early model runs; I would think it probable he gets a lot wrong (much like the medium range models he uses for guidance), but I'm not that bothered to look. These models have uses, and thankfully the governments fund this so that we don't necessarily have to rely on the hollywood-style accuweather and people like Henry.

reply to post by melatonin

The point was that you anti-government rant was pretty misplaced

Sure, the government does everything right. That's why we're neck deep in debt, a U6 unemployment rate for 2 years, from 17 to 24%, two wars that they're bogged down in, with no hope of exit, terrorist threats (if you believe in them), a TSA that is reactive, rather than proactive, a border where millions of illegals flow across, with no problem, crooked bankers and brokers running free from prosecution, and the list goes on.
Yup, it sure looks like the government has everything under control!

All I have to say about this is THANK GOD my husband and I didnt go home to DC for christmas bc there would be no way we would be able to drive home over the mountains for days on end. Cheers to "premonitions"