Dewey defeats Truman!

www.chicagotribune.com...

Boy was Chicago Tribune embarassed when Harry Truman held up the newspaper after he was declared the winner by more than 4% over his Republican competitor.

en.wikipedia.org...

Gallup had called the election for Thomas Dewey and said that it would be a close race but Truman would lose. So the Chicago Tribune listened to the top politico's of the time and called the election for Dewey, but as they were forced to learn, politico's aren't always right.

www.gallup.com...

I wonder which newspaper Harry Reid and/or Nancy Pelosi will hold which declares 'Republicans defeat Democrats' yet the Democrats actually win.

Sorry everyone I'm not going to follow the herd on this one, I'm not buying it. Polsters and Politicos don't always know the truth and when/if I am correct and Democrats keep control of the House and Senate I will be laughing the whole week.

I predicted the 2008 election map correctly, every state Obama won I predicted and sent into CNN, but I never recieved a response. I sent it in on October 25, I remember that day because it was important to me. So I am going to call this one for the Democrats to keep both chambers.

House of Representatives

Democrats..... -15 to -20 seats(net)

Senate

Democrats..... -5 seats(net)

reply to post by Misoir


So no Conservative or Republican sympathizer is going to come in here and try and destroy me?

i suspect you are more right than wrong.

My general idea at this point is that the Right knows they dont have the numbers. But they are keeping their base entertained, and prepping them for a major upset when they dont get the 'MASSIVE" takeover they all seem to envision. The emotional, irrational response this disappointment will engender will only benefit the GOP in the 2012 elections. Glenn Beck will set himself aflame in front of the Lincoln Monument. Rush Limbaugh will scream about DieBold stealing the election in Ohio (they arent original or factual).

They're doubling down and betting it all on a total takeover in 2012 with a wave of social conservative reactionary backlash that would make 1980 pale by comparison. They may even bring back Zombie Reagan to run with PAlin. Altho i still see ol' Romney with someone like miss "O'donnel as veep.

The Right may benefit from NOT taking back the House

www.abovetopsecret.com...


Sources: Business lobbyist not so sure GOP takeover a done deal

Washington (CNN) -- Top White House officials believe expectations were set so low for Democrats that they just may keep control of the House and Senate by grinding out victories in individual races, and there are signs emerging that the most powerful Republican business lobbyist may privately agree with that assessment. CNN has learned that Tom Donohue, the powerful president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce who has vowed to spend more than $75 million on key House and Senate races, has privately told colleagues in recent weeks he believes Democrats will just barely hold on to the House majority

edition.cnn.com...

reply to post by justadood


I would just like to see the reaction by the TeaBaggers when the Republicans don't retake either chamber and don't even gain many seats.

I will just laugh as they freak out.

Originally posted by Misoir
reply to post by justadood

 

I would just like to see the reaction by the TeaBaggers when the Republicans don't retake either chamber and don't even gain many seats.

I will just laugh as they freak out.

Well, as i added above, i suspect that freak-out will be pre-scripted. Or at least the freak-out of their mouthpieces.

And all that anger, properly harvested will be political GOLD.

reply to post by Misoir


Glen Beck headquarters the day after the election:

Originally posted by Misoir
reply to post by justadood

 

I would just like to see the reaction by the TeaBaggers when the Republicans don't retake either chamber and don't even gain many seats.

I will just laugh as they freak out.

You know,

i suspect you will have as difficult a time engaging anyone of the Republican-apologists-in-hiding on this topic. They need to have something to call you an Obamabot over, or some way to injcxt their pre-scripted talking points into the debate. Your current approach gives them little room for such partisan manipulations.
a different approach may be warrented

reply to post by Misoir


well i will be the elephant in the room and say you sir are going to be wrong!!!!


too much has happened out there and too many are just not happy with things as they are............

house and senate will be totally different and i will call it now! so!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! remember this post and the day after the election...........you have first dibs on making me eat these words...........

house goes red as the majority
senate goes red as the majority

after the time alotted to edit this post expires....................it will never be edited....... and man you can point to this and say neo you were wrong!

reply to post by Misoir


i for one hope the democrats maintain slight majorities so the real flood can be unleashed in 2012. so, yea i'm with you on this one.

yea, wait i gotta qualify. while i hope this is going to happen. its not. the margin in the senate will be under 5 seats and the margin in the house will be under 15.

God! This was a great moment for President Truman and Democrats everywhere in the united States and the World. Times change and Democrats will always be number 1.

I think control of both House and Senate will be a toss up. This will be close!

Here is polling analysis from fivethirtyeight.com. They tend to be left leaning, yet go out of their way to be fair with the data. In their analysis, it doesn't look good for the Democrats.

They also have a great track record of successfully projecting election outcomes. .

Don't look now but we have someone who agrees with Nancy Pelosi on how the election results will look.

Unfortunately, that person is 18 years old, and about as smart politically as Pelosi is.

It's great rooting for your team, but how many Buffalo Bills (random winless team...sorry Bills fans) fans out there actually think the Bills can win it all?

Originally posted by Carseller4


It's great rooting for your team, but how many Buffalo Bills (random winless team...sorry Bills fans) fans out there actually think the Bills can win it all?

cnt speak for anyone else, but i can assure you, i am not on the same 'team' as the Democrats just because i dont think all the social con hoopla will amount to much.

reply to post by Carseller4


You call age into the factor then you criticize me for knowing nothing politically yet I provided information, I provided facts I put intellectual thought into the OP, what did you put into your post? Name calling and partisan attacks based on unsubstantiated assertions.

Who's the one who looks like a know-nothing child in this one? You.

Woo! Go Team!

Party politics just give stupid people something to feel smart about. Get past it already.


Posted Via ATS Mobile: m.abovetopsecret.com

reply to post by thisguyrighthere


I would like to know how I am rooting for one team? I never once said anything about supporting the Democrats, I was simply saying I am predicting a slight loss for Democrats compared to the so-called Republican landslide.

Reply to post by Misoir

With at least 4 other posters clearly making party preferential posts why assume I am speaking directly to you?

did I accidentally hit "reply to Misoir"? Could have, mobile is funny.

Otherwise a certain Carly Simon song comes to mind... lol


Posted Via ATS Mobile: m.abovetopsecret.com

reply to post by thisguyrighthere


Haha, now I look like I am trying to hide something.

I just figured when posting on ATS if you are replying to the OP you don't hit reply to their post you just reply.

I am a Lean-Democrat, but neither a Democrat or a vote Democrat person. I perfer third parties and independents.

I love trying to figure out election results.

I'll give my "prediction"...but I'm not very confident...because things are crazy right now.

Senate: Dems 51 - Repubs 49

House: Dems 218 - Repubs 217


Now I know it looks like I just gave the Dems a one person majoriy in both the house and the senate...but that is just a coincidence. I looked at the individual races in the Senate...and really think that is how it will break down (possible 52 dems...but I'll stick with 51). And for the house I looked at more of the trends instead of 435 individual races.

So that is my "prediction". I wouldn't be suprised at all if the Dems win more seats in both house and senate than what I am predicting. I will be suprised if the Republicans win more seats than I predicted.

Dems will lose seats...but I doubt they will lose either the house or the senate.

I think it's possible the Republicans can take over the house, but I think people are inflating their chances. This isn't 1994. Unlike that year, we had a recent period where the Republicans controlled both houses. Frankly, I don't remember the Republicans being much better than the Democrats. I am sure there are a few people out there that remember the same.