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Originally posted by mnemeth1
These “booms” are when the malinvestment takes place due to excessively “cheap” money (credit) being available. Since money is cheap, investors are willing to take more risk than they otherwise would. The cheap cost of borrowing also sends a signal to investors that there is more capital goods available for future production than actually exists. Producers see the cheap rates and assume people have lots of savings available to spend on future consumption so industry reorganizes itself into the production of long term goods. Only later is it revealed that consumers are broke and the existing capital stock of goods that producers were relying on to finish their projects does not actually exist.
The “bust” is the market trying to correct this excessive lending and return itself to a proper ratio of gold to dollars. The “proper” ratio can be considered a point where all bad debts (malinvestments) have been cleared through defaults and write-downs.
Originally posted by keepithush
What do you mean soon? I have for years, things are getting much worse, so much so that my internet will be cut off on the 28th as I can no longer afford it.
I used to be ahead with utility bills now I am in debt, I have one pair of trousers, about 2 or 3 tshirts and a couple other bits like socks and underwear, as do my wife and kids, I am unable to work due to illness and my wife is not only my childrens carer but mine too, even if she did work she would never find a job that would pay enough to keep us afloat with our heads just above the water as we do right now living on a budget.
my pc was given to me and is worthless, it crashes all the time, I have nothing of value.
We do not smoke, drink or do drugs, we have no credit cards and no borrowed money short of paying back a social fund loan that we needed when we moved to a home we could afford.
So, you said soon? how much worse can things get for me and my family?
Oh and our landlord is refusing to do any work, so we paid for a move and put every last penny into this home that we have now to move out of with no money at all to a property that doesn't have a landlord simply out to churn through tenants and I suspect not give the bond back.
Originally posted by mnemeth1
By using tax payer dollars to bailout private depositors (such as you or I), it is creating MORAL HAZARD.
Such guarantees by the State shut down the critical mechanism of public scrutiny.
If the public thought they could loose all their deposits in a given bank if the bank went under - THEY WOULD BE ALL OVER THAT BANK LIKE FLIES ON %$#*& DEMANDING TO SEE THE BOOKS.
Originally posted by smirkley
Ok, sorry for running to the cut-and-chase....
So in the current conditions we are transforming to,..
We are headed for a "boom", no?
Originally posted by buddhasystem
I'm making that point again because it shows that your premise if inherent evil of government regulation it patently false. I'm willing to bet that if the states eliminated limits on blood alcohol content as basis for DUI classification, the death toll on our roads would certainly rise. Of course, having such limits goes against the grain of free alcohol market and free consumption of this product -- but what you, mnemeth1, wouldn't sacrifice to appease your fetish for free markets?
If a person gets fired because the business they worked for suddenly folds, their cash flow dries up in a millisecond, they have electricity, heat, water and all that cut and pretty quickly get evicted -- that is, if they don't receive unemployment -- is this your idea of orgasmic happiness that absolutely FREE markets must magically bring us?
Originally posted by buddhasystem
What good would it do, seeing the books, if the books can be made look OK? Just look at recent experience. I'm sorry once again that the Universe does not folds nicely in that super-simplified three-point model that would fit into your head. It won't. Since you obviously never had to price risk (and I did this professionally), you fail to see that:
a) derivatives - in many cases it's just tricky business, and the government regulates that by requiring banks to have cash reserves as a fudge factor to compensate for chaotic nature of markets and natural imperfection of models
b) credit - well that one is even tougher. Say a commercial bank gave out a loan to a 100% legit company but it was bankrupted by new and inept management. It was all good on paper, until you and I find we have 0 cents in our accounts. Tough luck then.
Time to start using brain cells. It's fun.
Originally posted by aravoth
People drive drunk all the time and never get caught. DUI's are simply fines for having something in your bloodstream, not for bad driving. This is why DUI Checkpoints exist, because not every drunk driver mows down a school bus.
You just believe that without the holy intervention of your sacred government, everyone would go insane and become drunken idiots. How did you survive this long without someone telling you to breath?
To your second point, when a business goes bankrupt it's profitable sections are purchased by it's rivals and it's employees rehired because they are skilled labor, already trained.
Originally posted by buddhasystem
I did fine, thank you. I think I smell demagoguery on your breath, though. Having solid laws keeping society from madness is not the same as "telling how to breath". Given the pompous nature of your statement, I would think you get this.
edit on 23-9-2010 by buddhasystem because: (no reason given)
Originally posted by witness63
I hate to tell you this, but Karl Marx was 100% right when he said that capitalism was a very unstable system, given to cycles of boom and bust, and also to concentrating so much wealth at the top that it finally just collpases.
Originally posted by aravoth
Originally posted by witness63
The Boom is created by central planners manipulating interest rates which encourages investment into specific areas of the economy. The Bust is the natural result of that central planning. As the market is not permitted to adjust on it's own. Instead the Government tries to continue the boom, but this inevitably creates another bust. in another sector.
You can't party like a drunken fool forever.
Marx was horribly wrong. A system of capitalism does not include in it's model the use of a central bank, or central planning.