I am not a huge Tony Robbins fan and I am certainly not a disciple. However, his work speaks for it self. If you actually watch the entire video
presentation, what he says makes a lot of sense. Furthermore, he is not predicting the end of times or a complete economic collapse, he is merely
saying there is going to be a downturn in the economy, and a severe reaction will result in the stock market, particularly in certain sectors like
home building but also in lending and manufacturing. He is merely telling people to position themselves accordingly, suggesting that people move into
necessity type investments (food, power, etc), move into stable instruments such as cash, or even betting on the downturn (short the market, buy
inverse etfs, etc).
This is a very well put together video presentation. I would like to add a few highlights.
1) I have been speaking about the effect of the possible effects of the retirement of the baby boomers for at least a decade. I was an accountant for
15 years before changing to a civil service job because I saw this unemployment and downturn coming, although admittedly, not this hard and this fast.
I have also been an avid investor since I could read, as my was in the stock market for years, and I was always fascinated with the names on cans of
soup, soda, toothpaste, etc and wondered what companies brought me these items, how they made money, and how I could profit from that as well. I agree
with 95% of what Mr Robbins says, but one thing that is uncertain is the impact of baby boomers retirement. As a whole, will they become savers rather
than spenders? We don't know. If my parents are any indication, they have saved their whole lives and now that they are retiring, they are spending
more than they ever have. They are retired teachers with pensions coming in, their house is paid off with a rental, and they have saved every dime
they have ever earned so now they are enjoying retirement.
2) People, Mr. Robbins included, have been blaming banks and credit for the ills we have now. In the end, cheap credit and funny mortgages were only
the last phase of the long term problem, a bridge if you will. The real problem comes from long term underemployment and the exploitation of the
worker. The United States enjoyed rapid growth from the early 1900s due to industrialization, productivity gains, and an unionized workforce which was
well taken care of an therefore could spend money knowing they had it, and also, that their jobs were secure. Over time, and particularly in the
Reagan administration where "Union busting" became the new thing (I am a republican and loved Reagan but this was a particularly huge gaffe), Unions
were attacked and dissolved and people of Corporate America, lost their pensions, job security, and ultimately, a fair wage. Our economy relies on
growth and inflation. Sure it must be measured and controlled, but if profits at companies are to go up, prices must go up and if prices go up, wages
must go up as well.It's a cycle.
To illustrate this, I go back to a conversation I had with my friend nearly 10 years ago. I bought my house in 1995 for $226,000. Not 5 years later,
the house got appraised for $550,000 while they were actually selling for MORE THAN THAT. I called my friend and asked how it was possible that my
house could double in 5 years? I asked him frankly if everyone around me had their salaries double in that time frame...of course knowing full well
that few if any people go any raise to speak of between 1995 and 2000. I commented at that time that the rally in home prices was unsustainable and at
some point, I didn't know when, the housing market had to stabilize if not falter or downright collapse.
Another cause of this stagnation was the year 2000. What you say? Nothing happened when the clock hit 2000 and the new millennium hit! Correct.
However, this was due to massive, massive technology spending in the years 1995 through 2000. I personally was involved in a "year 2000" project
whereby entire systems had to be revamped due to the lack of a four digit year. There was massive concern (rightfully so) that ageing programs (among
other things) would improperly calculate because "00" and "01" are less than "98" and "99." In fact, entire companies were created to deal
with the issue, and companies like cisco, sun microsystems, intel, oracle, etc made billions and billions of dollars and saw a corresponding increase
in stock price. That all changed in march of 2000 (I believe), when forecasts for earnings plummeted and Sun Micro and Cisco plummeted from $100
(after a 2 for 1 split at $150) and $80 into the single digits and never really recovered. For the curious, the reason 2 digits were used initially is
because when mainframe computers were invented, memory was extremely limited (to the point where anyone born in the 80's can't even imagine what
I'm talking about), and as such, the 2 digits for a 4 year date simply could not be spared.
Nobody I have ever heard speak about the "tech crash" brings up the year 2000, and I have never heard ANYONE outside myself even mention it, but in
my opinion the massive spending and sudden immediate cutoff of that spending was the direct cause of the tech bubble and subsequent collapse.
Everyone is blaming 9/11 (the greatest American tragedy) for the economic upheaval but as a matter of fact whatever economic impact to the downside
was psychological and very limited in duration. Additionally, the long term economic effect of the event, if anything, would be positive as it created
many new jobs for construction, united the country (for a while - until everyone basically forgot about it), and eliminated office space and retail
space which began to be over abundant. If the hijackers could have warned us to get everyone out to spare the lives they actually would have done us a
big favor. I hate to say it because I loved those buildings but that's what I've read and I live here in NYC so I pretty much live it. Obviously
there was no need to kill innocent people who have nothing whatsoever to do with American overseas policies but that is a whole different discussion
you guys can take up here in the conspiracy forum.
For Tony's part some of the suggestions he made were good but I would like to point out the glaring absence of precious metals, particularly gold and
silver but also platinum and palladium. Gold and silver go back as far as 5,000 years, maybe longer, and are mentioned in the bible. Paper money
rarely lasts more than a few hundred years at best and ultimately becomes worthless. No other investment has been around as long, and it's one of the
few assets that doesn't rely on the promise or action of another. I am not a gold bug and have historically not invested in precious metals due to a
lack of a return, but in these times I have no choice. The dollar can and must continue to decline, if nothing else, in a slow and steady rate as it
has since the turn of the century.
I particularly applaud Tony for saying something which I have said to my "gloom and doom" friend in Georgia every time he brings up this subject
which is "don't predict something like a crash, the end of the world, a slowdown in the economy, the end of the dollar etc...something which will
ultimately occur, and we can do nothing about. Give me a time frame in which you will be correct and tell me what plan YOU have for profiting from
it." For instance, many of the doomsayers during the crash predicted the demise of the dollar, rocketing inflation etc in the "next 6 to 18 months"
when in that time, we had deflation, and the dollar rallied because everyone sold their stocks and other assets and flocked to cash, and in addition,
banks were not lending money, they were holding it, hording it, and due to supply and demand forces the dollar rallied. I stressed to my friend and I
continue to hold to it....we can't have inflation until we have some mode of recovery, because you cannot raise prices if no one is buying, and the
dollar has only recently begun its decline (maybe 6 months or so), as the economy has begun to unfreeze somewhat and as dollars begin to be released
and the government continues printing, supply and demand again will take hold and the dollar must decline.
If you want a strategy for what tony was talking about with playing the decline safely, you can trade ETFs (he mentions them) such as DOG (that's the
symbol) which increases at a rate inversely to the DOW's decline. I used this strategy, alternatively buying DOG and DIA (which bets on the down UP)
during the period of high volatility following the credit meltdown and subsequent crash. If you are married to your portfolio you can buy put options
which will protect you from any crash by either increasing in value as your stock declines (offsetting the losses) or allowing you to sell the stock
at a given contract price. For instance, if you hold IBM at $100 and you hold a $90 put, and the stock collapses to $25, you have the right (but not
the obligation) to sell the stock at $90, or you can keep your stock and sell the option which is now worth $90-$25 or $65 x 100 or $6,500 in
intrinsic value alone (options also have a time premium and a volatility premium).
All in all Anthony Robbins gave a well thought out presentation, and it would pay to take heed and at least evaluate your positions. His take on
housing is rather conservative, as I don't see a recovery for many years (more than a decade), as the reset has taken place, reality has set in, and
everyone knows they cannot do it on credit any longer. All home building should cease NOW but it won't....so if you were planning to sell your house
to fund your retirement, you need to make alternate arrangements.
Good luck everyone.