Massive asteroid could hit Earth in 2182, warn scientists

A massive asteroid might crash into Earth in the year 2182, scientists have warned.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/8feae3e0f323.jpg[/atsimg]
An image of 1999 RQ36, the asteroid which has a 1/1000 chance of hitting Earth

The asteroid, called 1999 RQ36, has a 1-in-1,000 chance of actually hitting the Earth at some point before the year 2200, but is most likely to hit us on 24th September 2182.

It was first discovered in 1999 and is more than 1,800 feet across. If an asteroid of this size hit the Earth it would cause widespread devastation and possible mass extinction. And scientists say that any attempt to try and divert the asteroid will have to take place more than 100 years before it is due to hit to have any chance of success.

If the asteroid had not been spotted until after 2080 it would be impossible to divert it from its target, they warned in a new research paper. While the odds may seem long, they are far shorter than that of the asteroid Apophis, which currently has a 1 in 250,000 chance of striking Earth in 2036.

Asteroid 1999 RQ36 is part of the Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHA) group, which all have the possibility of hitting the Earth due to their orbits and are all considered likely to cause damage. Even though the asteroid’s orbit is well-known thanks to 290 different observations by telescopes and 13 radar measurements there is uncertainty about its path because of the so-called Yarkovsky effect. This effect, first discovered in 2003 and named after a Russian engineer, is produced by the way an asteroid absorbs energy from the sun and re-radiates it into space as heat. This can subtly alter the asteroid’s flight path

Source: www.dailymail.co.uk...

I know, I know. Not another one... But, someday, one of them will be one. They (scientist) think this one has the best chance (if you will) of hitting good old Earth.

I won't be around... But, to see it if actually does would be amazing. What would it be like on Earth if some massive, life altering event takes place? Me, I think I would just rather check out with no massive destructive event-but that's just me.

Thank God Man has the ability to learn these things and try to prevent them from happening. Good luck Man-Kind.

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Artist's impression of the Chicxulub crater on the Yukatan peninsula in Mexico. The massive impact of the asteroid may have been responsible for the extinction of the dinosaurs

And scientists say that any attempt to try and divert the asteroid will have to take place more than 100 years before it is due to hit to have any chance of success....
If the asteroid had not been spotted until after 2080 it would be impossible to divert it from its target, they warned in a new research paper.

That's bit odd to say, and would only make sense if technological progress would stop and stay on the same level as of now. I would think by 2080 we already have the technology to make it disappear into thin air or divert it from it's course easily, but that's just my humble opinion.

It's only 1/3 of a mile across, just blow it up into little pieces and enjoy the show

As Samuel L Jackson said in Jurassic Park...

"Hold onto your butts"

I agree with the poster above the poster above me =)

Technology by then would probably be capable of sending a death ray at it
from super labratory here on earth. We will just Zap it.
Once we Zap it, it will turn into Skittles, fall from the sky, and all the people will all be happy

Edit- Taste the Rainbow.

[edit on 28-7-2010 by Common Good]

There are only two possibilities, either we will have the technology to destroy this without much bother....or most of mankind will have already been destroyed so apart from the few remaining survivors(a few million) it won't matter much. I personally see mankind being wiped out before 2182....just another one of the 99.999% of species to have gone extinct on earth.

when you spin water and tiny bites of round magnets in a round motion, over time those magnets will combine together to form a larger object, if this rock has any magnetic properties and orbits around planet earth like every 1000 years it will someday send us all to hell

neo.jpl.nasa.gov...

i don't see it listed here. there is a new category 1 that i haven't seen but i stopped checking after teh whole apophis thing.

if this one has a 1/1000 chance of hitting i'd imagine it would be somewhere between 2-5 on the torino scale. maybe they don't want to show an orange color. but then what the hell's the point of having this map if it only shows white green and blue.

reply to post by Ecidemon


Blowing it up is worse, there was a documentary on discovery about that... if an asteroid breaks up or is blown up you the Tunguska scenario happens, basically a giant fire ball that is larger than the asteroid crater radius. This would cause far more damage hypothetically than what a regular asteroid would do.

If they are outright saying 1 in a 1000 chance now I think it's probably a certain hit a number that small in astronomical terms pretty much means bullseye.

I've a feeling nobody will bother trying to do anything about it and closer to the time we probably won't be in a position to have any say in the matter I've a feeling the world is going more mad max than star trek.

Be nice if I was wrong though and then we could just send a few ships up to capture and mine it or something similar. Of course with us already having developed railguns, lasers and other recent jumps in technology it's possible we might have perfected those enough or have something newer and scarier to deal with it by then.

I see that Drudge has put the story up on his webpage (far right side, midway down).

I love beating him with a story.

Remember, you heard it here first!

Originally posted by IvanObanion
neo.jpl.nasa.gov...

i don't see it listed here.

It's the first one listed in the "Objects Not Recently Observed" list, and they list 8 potential impacts between 2169-2199, so the 2182 possibility would be one of those 8, right?

The chances on Apophis have changed before, they could change again as the time draws closer.

There is an upcoming show that will explore various ways to deflect an asteroid: www.nerdist.com...

I'm curious as to why 2007 VK184 hasn't gotten more attention; it's been sitting at a 1 on the Torino scale for a while now on a potential impact that occurs in 2048.

reply to post by Arbitrageur


oooooh i see now. it's torino value is listed as n/a.

hmm that's pretty interesting. looks like they don't want to admit it's a category 3 or higher.

reply to post by ngchunter


just scroll down to the bottom of the page where it links the torino chart. or wiki it or something. anything category 3 or below is pretty much a non issue.

if we havent gotten off our butts and found a way to deal with things like this by 2182, then we deserve to be wiped out IMO.

We have the technology now =/
Just throw a nuke near it and it should "nudge" it out of its current path.

www.skyandtelescope.com...

Read this. Not really something to worry about yet.