If Turkey and Israel go to war - Who would the US standby?

I think an interesting question is

'Will the Turkish military ALLOW the Turkish civilian govt to get into a conflict with Israel?'

Its not altogether clear the military in any way supports these provocative flotillas, even though the civilian government does.

It would be interesting to see if they viewed a conforntation with Israel as an opportunity for the Erdogan govt to turn the country more towards conservative Islam.

Alot of variables here, enough to make my head spin.

[edit on 2-6-2010 by ErEhWoN]

[edit on 2-6-2010 by ErEhWoN]

Originally posted by BritishSpy
For the US risking the NATO would also mean risking the EU - this would lead to massive economical problems. Fact is: Risking NATO & EU is much much much more costlier than risking Israel. As I said it would be plain madness...
Driving the Turks into an alliance with the Arabs & Iran would be a geopolitical catastrophy for the US. Look at the bills - which one is costlier - an easy guess.

You know, by all reasoning, statistics, and logic, what you say makes perfect sense. I even agree with you wholeheartedly.

But, you are giving way to the notion that the same force that cradles Israel, and by force I mean the whole shabang of shadow governments, puppet masters, global manipulators, etc, is willing to throw them to the dogs. The actions taken and not taken by our (US) current government simply point to the idea that this is in fact untrue.

What I'm saying is; without sounding biased to either side, as a spectator with no "favorite team", it just simply seems that Israel is America's 51st state. Except for the fact that it receives more funding than ANY of our current fifty. So the bills, the logic, and and the potential catastrophe doesn't seem to concern any of our elected leaders. At least not the majority, and not at this current moment. Doesn't look that hopeful for the future either, unless some sort of (hopefully unarmed) revolution takes place. Maybe revolution is a wrong word. Maybe renaissance is what I was looking for.

I'm starting to feel that humanity's evolution or destruction teeters on the universal outlook of the global populace and their ability to influence their government. This would have to start in all nuke wielding countries. It feels to me as if the people across the globe have lost power against their governments and real change cannot ever be implemented because of that.

It would seem that the next step for humanity is to restore power to its' people and and pick the governmental gardens free of carnivorous weeds.

It would also seem that I'm starting to rant.

If America backs Turkey over Israel I'll eat my hat. My sweaty work hat. Gladly.

According to this article they will Support Israel all the way.

Appearing on PBS's Charlie Rose Show, Biden defended Israel's action in boarding the Gaza flotilla as "legitimate". After suggesting the flotilla's cargo of aid could have been unloaded elsewhere, Biden appears to brush off the international criticism, asking: "So what's the big deal here? What's the big deal of insisting it go straight to Gaza?"

He then makes it clear that Washington is happy for Israel to conduct its own investigation of the incident that led to nine deaths and dozens of injuries, although Biden added: "but we're open to international participation".

If you look at the AKP (Erdogan's party) admin than you will realize strange things: There were reforms towards democracy(!) - even the so called left parties did not want it. Now you can talk and read Kurdish freely. They made friends out of traditional foes - Greece, Syria & Armenia. They made a loose military alliance with Israel(!) They are trying hard to get into the EU. Reality is: There is no movement towards an islamic state - quiet the opposite. Don't look at the cover - read the book. Erdogan is a complex person to understand. I think that he his very charismatic for the Turks and the majority respect him quiet highly. He is also fighting against an inside conspiracy (Ergenekon) of fascists. His personal strength and believability is driving Turkey towards democracy and not Islam. There is a possibility that he is a puppet and/or a great politician.

[edit on 2-6-2010 by BritishSpy]

Originally posted by vor78
reply to post by 23432

 

That, or something similar, is the most likely outcome. I think its mostly just bluster from the Turkish side and they aren't really interested in a fight. I doubt the Israelis board another ship in international waters again anytime soon, either.

Turkish pm is the only non-jew ever to have been awarded a Bravery Medal from the American Jewish Congress - in it's 104 years , a very first medal to be given to non-jew .



something stinks to high heavens ....

en.wikipedia.org...

And this is why I enjoy this forum, 99% Insane, 1% Insight, but that 1% is worth it!

From what I've seen on the not frequent news of Turkey over here, usually gives Erdogan a Conservative slant.

Your views, that he is quite the opposite, will make me dig deeper, and hopefully gain insight. I know that what you learn from the media has to be de-compressed to understand the algorithms they use on the news stories!

But, that would make his anger toward Israel genuine, and that cant be a good thing?

Originally posted by JaquVanCouger
According to this article they will Support Israel all the way.

Appearing on PBS's Charlie Rose Show, Biden defended Israel's action in boarding the Gaza flotilla as "legitimate". After suggesting the flotilla's cargo of aid could have been unloaded elsewhere, Biden appears to brush off the international criticism, asking: "So what's the big deal here? What's the big deal of insisting it go straight to Gaza?"

He then makes it clear that Washington is happy for Israel to conduct its own investigation of the incident that led to nine deaths and dozens of injuries, although Biden added: "but we're open to international participation".

Here is a typical example of how America cradles Israel. He asks what the big deal is, being ignorant of who was on the flotilla and not even being willing to admit how wrong the whole blockade situation is. To try to minimize or plain oversee the human suffering occurring on both sides (albeit grossly disproportional) of the fence, and goes as far as backing a "perpetrator investing his own crime" type of investigation.

This alone should be grounds for impeachment due to the amount of ignorance, inhumanity, and absolute disregard of the constitution due to his tyranny.

One may argue to the contrary but my reply is this; Do some self searching before you retort. Do some research of history, get to know people like JFKs ideals, and come to terms with the fact we have allowed ourselves to be manipulated into electing the lesser of two evils. Realize that the constitution meant to stop these things from happening but has been circumvented by lobbyists and the electoral college. Understand that at the very top of our government there is a man who is an advocate for allowing useless deaths to occur as well as denying people basic civil rights.

But again it's all just my point of view, trying to stay objective.

Depending on many factors, yours may be different. I feel, however, that I have been able to "un-indoctrinate" myself and am able to think about humanity as a whole, and am not willing to let borders, religion, language, or greed drive my logic and reasoning. Ever. Humanity first. The aforementioned ideals a faaaaar second.

That is how you become free from bias and are able to become an objective minded person. Objectivity is the key to understanding other points of view.

The Turkish PM Erdogan is very conservative but he is absolutely not interested in an Islamic state. The actions of all the years under the AKP regime speaks for themselves. He is intelligent and very successful in gathering quiet different thinking people around his agenda. With his actions now he secured the next elections for the AKP - without any doubt.

Unfortunately for both Israel and Turkey, the U.S. would likely back Israel. I truly wish the U.S. would at least stay neutral here and let these two settle it alone, but I doubt that would happen. If the U.S. had to pick a side, the wisest one would in fact be Turkey.

Here's a breakdown of why backing Turkey would actually be the best outcome for the people of Israel:

It's pretty clear that a war between Turkey and Israel would devastate the civilian populations of both countries. Turkey, without any U.S. backing, would be unrestrained in an attack on Israel, and would likely invite Iran and other anti-Israeli states to the attack. If the U.S. assisted Turkey, however, it would have the power to demand a measure of restraint in the attack on Israel, thus ensuring that the real problem (the Israeli government) is taken out and not the Israeli people. Not only that, but the U.S. would be much better recieved in the M.E.

What's the other advantage to this? Well, the U.S. likely has a pretty good idea of the details of Israel's "defence" systems. The U.S. would have a chance to take out Israeli nuclear sites before they get used.

The simple fact is that an unrestrained offensive by Israeli enemies (basically almost every M.E. country) would massacre the people of Israel. If the U.S. led the assault on Israel, that wouldn't happen.

Originally posted by MEAT10AF
... and would likely invite Iran and other anti-Israeli states to the attack....

Sorry but this is very unrealistic. They would accept material & logistic help (from Pakistan, Indonesia, Greece, Syria, Jordan) but never ever would they invite Iran - no way.

Turks would fight gladly against the Israelis and they don't need any country to assist them, they would be thankful for any help but they don't like the idea of sharing the glory.

[edit on 2-6-2010 by BritishSpy]

reply to post by BritishSpy


I believe that Iran would get involved one way or another. A war between Israel and Turkey would be of a scale not witnessed in a long time. Something on this scale would likely ignite the entire M.E. and get most countries in the area involved.

Even if Iran doesn't invite itself, there's also the possibility that conditions for Turkey could get so bad that they must request Iranian help.

TURKEY:

PERSONNEL
Total Population: 71,892,808 [2008]
Population Available: 39,645,893 [2008]
Fit for Military Service: 33,444,999 [2008]
Reaching Military Age Annually: 1,298,979 [2008]
Active Military Personnel: 514,000 [2008]
Active Military Reserve: 380,000 [2008]
Active Paramilitary Units: 148,700 [2008]

ARMY
Total Land-Based Weapons: 6,672
Tanks: 4,205 [2007]
Armored Personnel Carriers: 830 [2007]
Towed Artillery: 685 [2007]
Self-Propelled Guns: 868 [2007]
Multiple Rocket Launch Systems: 84 [2007]
Mortars: 5,813 [2007]
Anti-Tank Guided Weapons: 1,283 [2007]
Anti-Aircraft Weapons: 1,664 [2007]

NAVY
Total Navy Ships: 182
Merchant Marine Strength: 602 [2008]
Major Ports and Harbors: 6
Aircraft Carriers: 0 [2008]
Destroyers: 0 [2008]
Submarines: 13 [2007]
Frigates: 24 [2007]
Patrol & Coastal Craft: 28 [2007]
Mine Warfare Craft: 24 [2007]
Amphibious Craft: 8 [2007]

AIR FORCE
Total Aircraft: 1,199 [2007]
Helicopters: 336 [2007]
Serviceable Airports: 117 [2007]

FINANCES (USD)
Defense Budget: $30,936,000,000 [2009]
Foreign Exch. & Gold: $76,510,000,000 [2007]
Purchasing Power: $853,900,000,000 [2007]

OIL
Oil Production: 45,460 bbl/day [2005]
Oil Consumption: 660,800 bbl/day [2005]
Proven Oil Reserves: 300,000,000 bbl [2006]


ISRAEL:

PERSONNEL
Total Population: 7,112,359 [2008]
Population Available: 3,353,936 [2008]
Fit for Military Service: 2,836,722 [2008]
Reaching Military Age Annually: 118,134 [2008]
Active Military Personnel: 187,000 [2008]
Active Military Reserve: 408,000 [2008]
Active Paramilitary Units: 8,050 [2008]

ARMY
Total Land-Based Weapons: 14,200
Towed Artillery: 2,783 [2001]

NAVY
Total Navy Ships: 18
Merchant Marine Strength: 11 [2008]
Major Ports and Harbors: 4
Aircraft Carriers: 0 [2008]
Destroyers: 0 [2008]
Submarines: 3 [2008]
Frigates: 0 [2008]
Patrol & Coastal Craft: 13 [2008]
Mine Warfare Craft: 0 [2008]
Amphibious Craft: 0 [2008]

AIR FORCE
Total Aircraft: 1,230 [2003]
Helicopters: 386 [2003]
Serviceable Airports: 53 [2007]

FINANCES (USD)
Defense Budget: $18,700,000,000 [1999]
Foreign Exch. & Gold: $28,520,000,000 [2007]
Purchasing Power: $185,800,000,000 [2007]

OIL
Oil Production: 100 bbl/day [2006]
Oil Consumption: 249,500 bbl/day [2006]
Proven Oil Reserves: 2,000,000 bbl [2006]

[edit on 2-6-2010 by BritishSpy]

Originally posted by MEAT10AF
reply to post by BritishSpy

 

Even if Iran doesn't invite itself, there's also the possibility that conditions for Turkey could get so bad that they must request Iranian help.

Turkey would not accept Iranian soldiers invading Israel, the fear of genocide would prevent that. The only chance I see Iran get involved is when Israel using nukes - but then I see Nato and EU also getting involved...

reply to post by BritishSpy


Considering that N.A.T.O. would likely not fight against Israel since the U.S. would be backing it, Turkey has a tough scenario here.

No amount of soldiers, ships, or planes can overshadow the damage done by nuclear weapons. Even though Turkey's numbers appear to give them a clear victory over Israel, there's simply no way to ignore the nuclear influence in this situation. I have little doubt Israel would use them if needed. With Turkey's otherwise superior military, Israel might be brought to that desperation.

I doubt if Turkey had nukes used against it they would care if Iran committed genocide.

[edit on 2-6-2010 by MEAT10AF]

Millions of fighting Turks against some nukes - Turkey and it's allies would win hands down. Don't forget the blockade on the Sea - Israel has weak resources and foes full of hate all over the place.

[edit on 2-6-2010 by BritishSpy]

[edit on 2-6-2010 by BritishSpy]

reply to post by BritishSpy


I doubt it is that simple. Israel knows just as well as we do that it's hated by countries all around it. They've spent their entire time as a country stocking up on defense materials. My point? They likely have tons of nukes. A few ICBMs to major Turkish cities and it won't matter how much the Turkish military has going for it. The same goes for every other country in the area.

From the The Jerusalem Post:

Former US ambassador to the UN John Bolton on Tuesday expressed concern over what he says is pressure being exerted by President Barack Obama on Israel to rid the country of nuclear weapons.

“Egypt and the Obama administration are negotiating right now on an Egyptian proposal for a nuclear-weapons-free zone in the Middle East, which certainly sounds good, except when you think about it, there is only one country that resolution is targeted at and that is Israel,” Bolton, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute think tank in Washington, told Army Radio.

reply to post by BritishSpy


Israel obviously won't rid itself of nukes, though. They like the leverage that comes from being the only nuclear country in the region. Once again, Turkey nor any other country in the region can go against Israel without at least expecting heavy losses. I doubt Turkey would risk losing any major cities despite their hatred for the crimes of the Israeli government.