If Turkey and Israel go to war - Who would the US standby?

I'd just like to take this opportunity to thank everyone for contributing so far.

I'm reading through it all now and will comment soon.

Turkey is a member of NATO.
Arabs love Turkey.
Iran have nuclear weapons and they dont like Jewish people.
World knows about Israel kill innocent people.
There are so many nazi live in world.

Originally posted by mr-lizard
I know there's a similar thread, but that thread deals with Iran/Syria/Lebanon/ Egypt and Israel.

This thread is about Europe and America and Israel.

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With America's interets in Israel, but by being part of the UN / Nato - would America effectively be forced into a choice?

What about Turkey and the EU?

If America take Israel's side, then surely the whole world would be against America? Would then America be at war with the EU?
But if they take Turkey's side, wouldn't they be ruining their relationship with Israel?

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I do hate to talk of war, but this Israel /Turkey confrontation is heating up. We've also got an Irish aid vessel en route, and Ireland have issued a strong warning against the use of force on its citizens.

Same with Italy.

But what if any of these vessels are attacked, Israel have already spoken of using further force and Turkey are reported as saying they may provide an armed escort. Say a confrontation between any of these takes place and Israel decides to take it one step further. What happens then?

What do you guys think?

The confrontation is more then about simply Turkey and Israel.
If it comes to war, it will involve Cyprus and Greece as well.
What this is all about is oil and gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean, which have been found in the territorial waters and EEZ's of Cyprus, Israel, and Greece.
Turkey believes that it has a right to exploit the natural resources of other countries.

It has not only destroyed relations with Israel, but has been making veiled threats against Cyprus.


The situation is now heating up, with Greece expecting an incident soon. Even the EU is expecting something.
The Greek military has moved to a heightened state of alert and is prepared for combat as I type this. If they get the order, it's on and # will hit the fan in the region in a big way.

Who will the USA back? The USA has already taken a side, it is just being cautious in it's approach because Obama is a weak leader. Lets remember Democrats are in power not Republicans.
We all know the US will back Israel if Israel is attacked or provoked. It has also said it supports Cyprus' rights to exploit it's natural resources.
The American firm Nobel Energy, is involved in the Israeli and Cypriot finds. Will Turkey dare to attack or interfere with an American energy firm? We will see..

Will the USA attack Turkey? I doubt it. But they will move to isolate Turkey politically and economically as a result. The US will pull it's people out of Turkey. Incirlik airbase, which has kept Turkey important geopoliticaly, will dissapear and so will Turkey's importance as an ally(not that it will be considered an ally then). Turkey will be kicked out of NATO, it will be kicked out of the F35 program, it will be slapped with an arms embargo, and there will be action taken against it in the UN. And I don't think Russia will side with them either, because Russia has said they support Cyprus' rights to exploit their resources too.

Turkey has major military exercises planned next week I believe.

Things are certainly getting interesting in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Personally I don't hope for war, but if it comes to it, then so be it. A time comes when you can no longer use logic to reason and subdue a bully. A time comes when you have to beat up the bully.
The bully in this case is Turkey. It has been provoking and being antagonistic for years now.
Sadly I sense the time to hit back is approaching.

The US cannot back Israel otherwise it will go to war with the EU.

If war broke out, the whole of Europe would crush Israel.

If the US backs Israel, it goes to war with Europe and WW3 starts. China and Russia would like be against the US too, it would be the end of them.

If it backs Turkey as it should, Israel would hopefully be dissolved and the Middle East problems disappear.

The most likely scenario is they do nothing but have to stand back and watch Israel lose, theyd still have their bases in important places and NATO is still intact.

Dont forget if Israel used nukes, the UKs and Frances nuke would rain down on them. Both sides are nuclear.

Originally posted by Flyer
The US cannot back Israel otherwise it will go to war with the EU.

If war broke out, the whole of Europe would crush Israel.

If the US backs Israel, it goes to war with Europe and WW3 starts. China and Russia would like be against the US too, it would be the end of them.

If it backs Turkey as it should, Israel would hopefully be dissolved and the Middle East problems disappear.

The most likely scenario is they do nothing but have to stand back and watch Israel lose, theyd still have their bases in important places and NATO is still intact.

Dont forget if Israel used nukes, the UKs and Frances nuke would rain down on them. Both sides are nuclear.

This doesn't make any sense.
Why would the EU go to war with the USA and Israel if the USA backs Israel against Turkey?

Turkey is not a member of the EU, and it never will become a member of the EU because the EU simply does not want Turkey to be a member of the EU.

A side note, the EU has a border protection operation running in Greece called FRONTEX whereby it monitors and detects/intercepts illegal immigrants that are smuggled into the EU by Turkish authorities(everyone from police to high ranking military officers are involved in the smuggling rings). Turkish military assets have threatened EU FRONTEX helicopters operating in Greek air space.

Turkey is belligerent towards two members of the EU, and continues to occupy part of the sovereign territory of one.
Turkey is adopting a policy of meddling and interfering in the region, so called "mosque diplomacy".

Why would the European Union back such a country?

The UK and France would nuke Israel if Israel used nukes to defend it self? What reality are you in?


You obviously are out of your depth. Don't let your hatred of Israel and Jews cloud your judgment and lead you into ridiculous and delusional theories.
If a war starts in the region between Turkey, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, it will be Turkey who will initiate the conflict. Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and most other countries in the region have nothing to gain by starting a war.
Turkey on the other hand is under the belief that they are a rising super power and therefore have a right to interfere in their neighbors and dictate to them about what they can and cant do.

Turkey is burning it's bridges fast with the Western world under the Erdogan AKP Islamist government.
If you cant see that then you should look a little harder.
Here's two examples of how crazy the Turkish government is getting...and why if any conflict starts, it will be them who spark it.

- They just expelled the Israeli ambassador.
- They have basically threatened military action against Cyprus if Cyprus proceeds with drilling for natural gas that lies within Cyprus' sovereignty(and is adjacent to the Israeli finds).


If you actually think the European Union will back Turkey, in a wider regional conflict, after it threatens to attack one of it's members from which energy supplies will be met for decades to come(thus relieving the need for energy imports from Russia, Middle East etc), you are sadly mistaken mate.

Turkey is becoming increasingly isolated these days with it's rhetoric and actions which are not in step with the rest of the International community, much less Washington and Brussels.

reply to post by BLV12


Why on earth would Turkey consider attacking Sovereign British territory if it had issues with Israel?

I am not sure Turkey wants the Royal Navies SLBMs off their coast and can't see the logic in any action that draws that kind of attention if it was bumping heads with Israel.

ETA: but you are right.. if Turkey attacked UK territory it changes the whole face of the game.. the UKs recent treaty with France draws them in and both currently have significant forces in the area from where it would escalate in a whole other mess without touching on any other treaty or going to the UN/NATO.

So it is my opinion this is all smoke and mirrors to allow Turkey to deal with Syria without allegations they are siding with or acting on the wishes of the West/Israel.

reply to post by BLV12


www.nato.int...

Turkey is a member of NATO, an attack on one is considered an attack on all.
Of course the US is nothing but Israels lap dog so they wouldnt join in.

Its obvious you are out of your depth if you dont even know about NATO, its member countries and what it means.

As an Israeli it was eye opening to see some of the blind hate around here ("Jews control the media"?, "Israel control the US"? What kind of racist crap is that?) .To set the record, Israel did not attacked any ship - it was defending a legal blockade (at least found legal by the UN) to stop any unauthorized cargo from entering the Gaza strip. Moral or not, fact is that every day tens of missiles and rockets are launched on civilian targets smuggled from Egypt and by sea. Check the videos over YouTube and honestly say the Turk ship had civil aid personal on it or was it a group of hateful anarchists. A hint, civil aid don't kidnap 3 soldiers to the ship hull (as mentioned in the UN report), await soldiers on deck with metal bars etc. All Israeli's feel bad for the lost of life's aboard that ship, Turkey was our friend but the troops had to defend themselves and that's it. Israel will not apologies for defending it self or standing by our soldiers just as your country would. Period.
Would your country let ships enter a restricted military area unstopped? I think not.

It was a poor tactic boarding the ship from air and not using crowed control means but it doesn't change the fact they shouldn't be there in the first place. Civil aid to Gaza can be delivered via land any day. The sail to Gaza is an attempt to ignore Israel right to defend it self.

As for the up-coming conflict, there are allot of threats coming from Turkey PM but Israel government is ignoring them for now, trying to lower the flames but without US intervention (in the diplomacy arena), a military conflict is a matter of time. To anyone thinking the numbers are on Turk side, refer to every war against Israel - we are always outnumbered, but always managed to turn it around and come up victorious. 7 to 1, 6 to 1, doesn't matter. Someone said our military is not very motivated so let me say this: we fight for our people very existence and every war is a war for everything that matter to us. Its not like fighting a war in the other side of the world. Every war is in our doorstep. I don't think we need any motivation to defend our families.

The cost will be high for both sides for sure... As for the US, we care for the US - It is because of them our people was saved in WW2 (what remained of it), they supported and assisted us for many years and we are truly thankful for that. We wont have American blood spilled on our behalf. The US should stay out of this, we can defend ourselves just fine.

According to various prophecies, Turkey will be split in two countries. So I think USA will support Israel.

I never said Turkey will attack Soveriegn British territory. What British territory would it attack? The two bases in Cyprus? I never said that either. Cyprus is an independent country now, in case you weren't aware.

Turkey being a member of NATO means sweet f" all at the moment. There is growing talk of kicking Turkey out of NATO. That should give you a hint of where things are headed if the Turks dont pull their heads in.

And in any case, I never said Israel is going to attack Turkey. I clearly said that if conflict erupted, it would be Turkey who initiates it. If Turkey attacks either Cyprus, Greece, or Israel, nobody in NATO will side with Turkey. In fact Turkey will be widely condemned and hit with sanctions.

If Turkey attacks Cyprus, Greece will declare war. This is a fact. NATO will not defend Turkey in this case.
If Turkey attacks Greece, NATO will come and defend either side. In both scenarios they will attempt to defuse the situation and get both sides to stand down. In both cases, Turkey will likely be punished by being suspended or kicked out of NATO for attacking another member. In the climate that exists today this is possible.
If Turkey attacks Israel, NATO will not come to Turkeys aide when Israel retaliates. It is also highly possible that Greece will side with Israel and attack Turkey. s
In all three scenarios, the other constant is that the PKK in Turkey will launch a massive offensive.
They are waiting for Turkey to be at war with another country. When that happens, they will go all out to carve out a Kurdistan in South Eastern Turkey and incorporating northern Iraq.

The Israelis are now also talking about openly supporting the PKK and recognizing the Armenian genocide. You know what that means? The Jewish lobby in Washington will start pushing for the Americans to recognize the Armenian genocide.
When that happens, then the door will be opened for the recognition of the Genocide of Pontian Greeks on the Black Sea coast by the Young Turks.

The way things are breaking now, the break in ties in growing wider and wider.

And with Turkeys latest threat...I don't see them pulling their heads in and things getting worse.

Here is the latest news...

Israel regards Turkey threat as 'grave'


ISRAEL'S intelligence minister has described as "grave and serious" a threat by the Turkish prime minister to send warships to escort aid vessels trying to reach the Gaza Strip.

www.adelaidenow.com.au...

reply to post by BLV12


So in all honestly how would that work then?

Turkey attacks Cyprus and the UK carries on troops movements to and from Afghanistan as though nothing was happening? the RAF continue to patrol the skies not becoming a target for either side and the Royal Navy carry on their exercises and amphibious assaults unnoticed by the soldiers ships and aircraft fighting for control of the island?

Besides I am sure both the US and UK would be over the moon to have their eavesdropping and spy network at GCHQ disrupted..

So it seems utterly Illogical to me that it would not instantly draw in the UK and by default that rest of the alliance, and Turkey is well aware of what would happen.. and I do not see Turkey as that suicidal, so I look for other answers behind what I see as smoke and mirrors.

Right now Turkey is the only nation that could help bring about regime change in Syria but in my opinion to do so they would need distance themselves from the Western alliance.. and this is the answer I see fits the bill.

The other answer is that Turkey is being suicidal and it wants to bring about WW3.. at the moment I don't put a lot of weight behind that notion. but if Turkey is being suicidal then I suspect when it comes down to it the question will be moot as the US will be able to side with other members of NATO as opposed to siding with a non NATO member against a NATO member.

Despite all the sabre rattling I don't think Turkey and Israel will go to war with each other, it could be disastrous for all of us if they do.

I used to have enormous respect for the Israeli state but over the last few years or so I have begun to see them in a different light and think they are becoming increasingly repressive and aggressive in their dealings with neighbouring states etc and their treatment of Palestinians.

The USA may come under significant domestic pressure to support Israel in any conflict but I think it would be imperative that the UK stayed completely out of it but provided humanitarian aid for anyone who required it.

I think the US will back Isreal,and when they do as many posters have said,we will have the world against us,I predict that Isreal will be the demise of the US,and evidently the powers to be don't care

Originally posted by thoughtsfull
reply to post by BLV12

 

So in all honestly how would that work then?

Turkey attacks Cyprus and the UK carries on troops movements to and from Afghanistan as though nothing was happening? the RAF continue to patrol the skies not becoming a target for either side and the Royal Navy carry on their exercises and amphibious assaults unnoticed by the soldiers ships and aircraft fighting for control of the island?

What on earth are you talking about?
Why would the RN conduct exercises in a war zone?
You might not have the foresight or intelligence to work it out, but the people that are in the upper echelons of the military and government command structures, do.
Stop asking ridiculous questions and use some common sense and logical thinking.

Besides I am sure both the US and UK would be over the moon to have their eavesdropping and spy network at GCHQ disrupted..
So it seems utterly Illogical to me that it would not instantly draw in the UK and by default that rest of the alliance, and Turkey is well aware of what would happen.. and I do not see Turkey as that suicidal, so I look for other answers behind what I see as smoke and mirrors.

Turkey invaded once already. British bases were a reality back then too.
Why would it draw in the UK?
Turkey attacking Cyprus does not mean Turkey attacking the British SBA's. For f&&&s sake, use some COMMON SENSE.

Right now Turkey is the only nation that could help bring about regime change in Syria but in my opinion to do so they would need distance themselves from the Western alliance.. and this is the answer I see fits the bill.

You obviously don't know much about Erdogan and the people he has surrounded him self with, and their links to the Arab world. Just a quick hint, he has been busy replacing staunch Kemalists with people loyal to him. Out with the old regime in with the new. If you think these people care about Western interests, you are in for a shock one of these days. These people use the Wests naivety to gain advantages until they get to a point were they don't need the West anymore. Erdogan though is overplaying his hand a little soon.

The other answer is that Turkey is being suicidal and it wants to bring about WW3.. at the moment I don't put a lot of weight behind that notion. but if Turkey is being suicidal then I suspect when it comes down to it the question will be moot as the US will be able to side with other members of NATO as opposed to siding with a non NATO member against a NATO member.

edit on 9/9/11 by thoughtsfull because: (no reason given)

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nobody said war is imminent, but it's becoming a possibility. Whether Erdogan is dumb enough to do something when the major players are all backing Cyprus and telling Turkey to back off, who knows. We will see. I doubt it will happen, but stranger things have happened.

Dont forget...the question is pointless. Israel owns America.

reply to post by BLV12


Personally if my responses insult your common sense and your intellect simply don't respond I guess the bottom line is that I don't think Turkey is as silly as you seem to wish them to be. But If you can't see the games in games then well... we'll have to wait and see who is right.. and on that I bid you a good weekend

Has anyone considered that this is starting to line up just as prophesied in Ezekiel 38-39.... Gomer is one of many neighboring nations that attacks Israel...the nations are named after the descendants of Noah and where they settled...

Gomer is Turkey.

And yes, the other nations...are listed likewise...

Persia=Iran...several have already pointed to the animosity there.
Egypt...just a year ago was a stable quasi ally to Israel's south...now they are tearing down Israeli Embassy walls.
Russia=Gog...a few other posters noted them as involved... they have considerable investments in Iran and Syria. Russia was historically known as the Scythians by Josephus and prior to that, Scythia was known as the land of Gog to the Greeks. Russia equals Gog.
Togomarh and all his band...Togomarh... son of Gomer...and all his band...the small allied Muslim nations or -akistan nations
Lybia... lets see, who has been put in charge of Lybia? Muslim Brotherhood? Al Quaida? Would they attack Israel?
Put..land of Put...east Africa...elements of Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia...all with Al Quaida and Hezbollah sympathies.

And where is Israel's staunchest ally...the USA?
Israel stands alone in Ezek.38-39... so this tells us that the USA is not involved against so many of it's allies on divergent sides... How could this happen? A weak and hesitant leader is in place... someone like Obama, who has been more verbally supportive of Muslims than any past president...that is a fact, not political opinion, but fact.

There will be those that poo-poo such notions, but read Ezekiel 38-39 and then read the papers.

Case in point, last year when we were discussing the Mid-East, some wondered how Turkey would ever be involved against Israel... well...here we are.

reply to post by mr-lizard


if anything real happens you will see all the politicians in DC wearing beanies on their heads as they babble to tv cameras.

they don't care about reality, as in the result of any of their actions.

when pompous, if one looks at history, one considers themselves omnipotent.
how dare anyone question their reality.

the EU might try to inject some sanity.

in the past the USA had great statesmen, from writing their constitution, to as recent as helping Germany and Japan write new constitutions.
those days are long gone, wisdom is totally forgoten, too many think of the USA with romantic eyes, the past is gone.
today we are as stupid as anything the ancients civilizations achieved, hope some future generations find a way out of this mess.
our dysfunctional society could last for decades, so put your seat belt on and hang in there.

reply to post by mr-lizard


A military agreement trumps a personal friendship any day.

Originally posted by thoughtsfull
reply to post by BLV12

 

Personally if my responses insult your common sense and your intellect simply don't respond

I guess the bottom line is that I don't think Turkey is as silly as you seem to wish them to be. But If you can't see the games in games then well... we'll have to wait and see who is right.. and on that I bid you a good weekend

Insulted? Hardly.
Frustrated? Yes.

I'm not saying there is going to be a war. I'm saying that things are heating up for a variety of reasons and that it goes beyond the scope of Israel-Turkey tensions. I'm talking a regional conflict. The Greek military is basically one phone call away from mobilizing and going to war at the moment. The chiefs of all the branches of the armed forces have visited(simultaneously basically) front line units.
We don't know and cant say what will happen. How far will Turkey go? We will wait and see.
But there are some things that are already known, like the fact that if Turkey attacks Cyprus again, this time nothing will stop Greece retaliating against Turkey.
Outsiders seem to think that because both are in NATO that nothing will ever happen. Sorry to say but things happen every day. Turkeys action on a daily basis(violating airspace/maritime border/FIR/over flying actual land) legally can be considered declarations of war. Greece shows restraint(with the odd "slip"). There will be no restraint if Cyprus is attacked.

No doubt behind the scenes and closed doors, there is a hell of a lot of activity back and forth between all parties involved. Like I said, even the Russians have made their voices heard. They have their naval base in Syria near by don't forget. It's even known that the EU has concerns that Turkey will do something stupid.

Time will tell. In a few days Turkey begins massive exercises in the region. That is partly why virtually the whole Greek military is on a heightened alert.
At the start of October, Cyprus & Nobel Energy are set to begin drilling.
Turkey has already made threats for them not to proceed. Nobel recently said they will be going ahead with drilling regardless of Turkish threats.
Greece has already said it will defend Cyprus.
Turkish-Israeli relations keep getting worse almost by the day/week it seems now.

I actually don't want anything to happen, contrary to what you may think.