Since Turkey has said it will be sending three frigates to the region to protect future aid flotillas, it has now also added that if it's ships confront any Israeli naval vessel outside of Israel's territorial waters, they will "disable the weapons systems" of those Israeli ships.
In other words, the chance of war is increasing.

Erdogan really does seem to have gone crazy. He has even said that they(Turkey) consider the raid on the first flotilla an ACT OF WAR. But they showed restraint and the "grandeur of Turkey". LOL WTF? Are they serious? An act of war?
So what do they consider their actions elsewhere in the region where they over fly the territory of other countries, as one example? An act of friendship and peace?

If he orders his military to attack Israeli vessels, sh** will hit the fan in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. I usually hate it when people go around predicting World Wars, but I think this scenario unfolding in the region actually does have the weight to turn into a global conflict. All the major players have some sort of stake in events there.

But needless to say, we obviously are still quite a way off from anything happening.
Let's remember it's just a war of words and saber rattling at the moment. But the moment Turkish ships encounter Israeli ships, the potential for it to escalate is real.

There's a reason the US military base in Turkey looks like it did in World War II.

We didn't invest any money in that country for a REASON.

There's no way Europe/Australia/US will stick by Turkey.

Mossad will take down anyone who supports Turkey.

The US has stuck by Turkey long enough. Long enough to hurt another ally.
The Turks now see them selves as a regional super power with global ambitions.
Megalomania at it's finest(or worse, depending on your perspective).
Israel is now threatened. Whether that threat is real, or perceived as a potential, is irrelevant.

Right now the Americans and Israelis are holding back and showing restraint. There are still circles which hold out hope that Turkey can be turned back to the trustful ally which tows Washington's line. Those days are gone.
It's why you are seeing support for Cyprus' endeavors to drill for gas. It's a message to Turkey, part of the hope they still hold out that they can turn them back to their side.
It's why America compromised with the missile shield radar and agreed to Turkey's demands that radar data would not be shared with Israel.
It's why America provided intelligence on the PKK in northern Iraq and allowed for limited Turkish strikes and incursions.
All gestures to the Turks saying, we can help you a great deal(helping with PKK etc), but we can also hurt you a great deal(supporting Cyprus' legal right to drill).

Turkey though wants to play the role of a regional super power that can do as it pleases without consequences.
Well, they certainly can do as they please. But there will be consequences.

Europe and America will not get directly involved in an armed conflict between Turkey and Israel, though they will undoubtedly act to calm things down.

Of course, if Israel nukes Turkey then I reckon that's probably the end of Israel for another 2,000 years. But there is obviously no reason to suppose they will do that.

Plenty of nuclear powers have been engaged in wars in the past 50 years and so far not one of them has even hinted at the threat is using nuclear weapons. Why suppose Israel are so much more stupid than everyone else?

Turkey is stratigically placed perfectly between the middle east and the west, the USA know that and obviously, that's why theyre are so many USA bases pointing their amo towards the Moddle East in all directions from Turkey (especially towards Iran).

Gas is another complication, most of Israels natural gas had to come through Turkey. I may be a little out of date here but last I heard Turkey have shut the gas lines and Israel are having to import Gas from elsewhere.

This whole issue must be a serious headache for Obama.........He needs both countries.
(Even Cyprus is now is in the picture as ther is pottential gas waiting to be drilled there) - that's more than a headache due to the Greek/Turkish issue which is so close to being resolved.

Turkey is a member of NATO and has one of the most sophiticated and numerous armies on the planet (The USA know this too).

USA will sit on the fence with this one for a while, then try to be negotiators. If that fails they will side with who ever is more beneficial to keep as a friend.

Let's face it, It's all about Gas, Oil, Gold, Minerals. Look what they have done to Lybia (who just happens to hold 70% of the world gold reserves) Must be a coincidence ?????

As for Nukes, USA deny Israels nuke capabillity but I'm sure if it kicks off, Nukes will be a last resort for both countries. USA will have calmed things down by that time because it's in their interests.

The only unknown factor is the other European counties (like Ireland) that have humanity and can see what the USA's "Turned Blind Eye" that is ignoring palestine and what goes on there.

In England where I live, Media coverage of anything Anti-Israeli is minimal.

I was in Central London for a meeting abbout a month ago and had to evacuate the underground tube due to an anti Israeli protest taking place in London City, I came up into a "war zone" with over half million protestors. UK and most of the USA Media resfused to mention practically nothing about it, (why do you think that is guys ? could it be because all uk media is controlled by Israel.

I would not have known anything about it if I had not witnessed it with my own eyes !!!!!

Please let me have your thoughts on this (I would like to your perpectives on what i've posted)

Originally posted by Agit8dChop
Turkey = Arab
Israel = Israel

any questions?

Turkey is NOT an Arab state...............In fact if you look back a few years in history you will find they were arch enemies (have you not seen or read Laurence of Arabia), Why do you think most middled eastern countries around Saudi speak FRENCH as a second language. you should really do your history before making remarks like Turks are Arabs.


signature:

America will support Israel if it comes to that, but it won't.

For Turkey to defeat Israel, it would have to basically annex Syria and Lebanon in the process, and given the instability in Egypt, you could see the beginnings of a new Ottoman regime. I imagine that state would be much more loose knit, more akin the EU, but it would wreak havoc with the plans of US foreign policy over the last decade in securing reliable access to gas, oil, and mineral deposits.

Turkey is posturing to be so pro-Palestine to get support in the Arab world because as several posters rightly said, they're Muslim but not Arab. But I don't think Turkey is going to overplay their hand here, and I don't doubt at all that the US has a hand in most of this.

Israel and Turkey are not going to war. But don't be surprised if both of them end up at war with Syria. If at the end of the day, Syria goes to Turkey, Lebanon to Israel, and the US gets a war with Iran, then everyone gets something and is a little happier.

Also, unless Israel attacked Turkey and it was recognized as such, Article V can't be invoked. Israel would argue attacking such a ship was defense of its sovereign waters, the US would accept that, and NATO would continue on. There are many times the members of NATO get into wars without each other. And I can't fathom a circumstance where Israel would attack Turkey in Turkish space, which is what it would take to get the US to even consider abandoning Israel

Originally posted by cassandranova
America will support Israel if it comes to that, but it won't.

For Turkey to defeat Israel, it would have to basically annex Syria and Lebanon in the process, and given the instability in Egypt, you could see the beginnings of a new Ottoman regime. I imagine that state would be much more loose knit, more akin the EU, but it would wreak havoc with the plans of US foreign policy over the last decade in securing reliable access to gas, oil, and mineral deposits.

Turkey is posturing to be so pro-Palestine to get support in the Arab world because as several posters rightly said, they're Muslim but not Arab. But I don't think Turkey is going to overplay their hand here, and I don't doubt at all that the US has a hand in most of this.

Israel and Turkey are not going to war. But don't be surprised if both of them end up at war with Syria. If at the end of the day, Syria goes to Turkey, Lebanon to Israel, and the US gets a war with Iran, then everyone gets something and is a little happier.

Also, unless Israel attacked Turkey and it was recognized as such, Article V can't be invoked. Israel would argue attacking such a ship was defense of its sovereign waters, the US would accept that, and NATO would continue on. There are many times the members of NATO get into wars without each other. And I can't fathom a circumstance where Israel would attack Turkey in Turkish space, which is what it would take to get the US to even consider abandoning Israel

edit on 17-10-2011 by cassandranova because: addition

Hi Casandranova, Thanks for your thoughts, I too believe war between Turkey and Israel will never happen !

However, as we speak there is a huge floatilla of aid ships heading towards Gaza (Irish, Spanish, Italian and more) The biggest mistake Israel made was attacking the last fleet in international waters (had any other country done that it would be a delcaration of war) could you imagine a US or English aid ship or plane being attacked in international waters or airspace whilst trying to help a stricken seized population like for example Haitti....Hell would have broken loose. we all realise circumstances are different with natural disasters and conflict but at the end of the day the people that died were trying to help.

Syria is another unknown factor as is Iran.I personally think USA will not be happy until Earth will one day be called the "UNITED STATES OF EARTH" and control everything run by the Israelis.

Your Thoughts please


Dinomax

Hi Dinomax,

I doubt one world government would be called the United States of Earth, but I have no doubt America would be a big player (though not the only one) in its construction.

Aid ships being sent like this strike me as inherently provocative. A nation still has the right to protect its own sovereignty under international law, and I'm certain there would be a way to provide legitimate humanitarian aid to the Palestinians if that was the desire.

This situation reminds me of what I read about why Selma, Alabama was picked for a march. Because it would piss people off and get sympathy. I see this the same way. It doesn't make them wrong, doesn't make Israel right, but it's my take on the situation.

I don't understand why they don't just land in Egypt and truck the stuff through Sinai. Crisis averted.

But even in the event Israel blows up the ship, no one is going to war over the plight of the Palestinians or their supporters. Frankly, there are people in the world in far worse situations than them who get ignored every day. Turkey will yell loudly, but that's just for the neighbors on the block.

Turkey is kind of like a guy who calls the easy woman a whore when he's around his friends, but then would sleep with her after the lights go out. Israel and Turkey aren't going to war in any scenario should of a deliberate strike on their respective territories. And the US will not allow that.