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Originally posted by skepticantiseptic
reply to post by tribewilder
Earthquakes will increase, and they will get worse and worse as foretold in the Bible. I live my life based on that book as do millions of other people all around the world.
One reason why I don't take every hacks opinion as fact, regardless of whether or not they have a diploma in said or another field.
Ask any number of intelligent rational people whether or not they also agree that this is coming and at least 15% will.
Originally posted by OzWeatherman
reply to post by TrueAmerican
I suppose if I had put that in the opening post I wouldve got more replies. Maybe the truth isnt exciting enough
Between the earthquakes that struck the Samoas and Indonesia yesterday and the temblor that devastated L'Aquila, Italy earlier this year, it might seem like Earth has been particularly shaky this year.
But that's not the case: "This is not out of the ordinary as far as the year goes," said John Bellini, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey.
There have been a lot of posts recently that imply a sudden
increase in earthquake activity. Here are some statistics going back to 1970. With each passing decade (over the last 30 years), the number of earthquakes
worldwide has been increasing progressively.
For example, in 1970 there were only 4,139; but last year there
were 23,575. -- Pretty scary stuff! Below are the actual numbers:
Read left to right -- lowest year to highest year.
Total 4139 4507 4548 5175 4996 5318 6308 5775 6428 7161
Total 7348 6829 7747 9842 10493 13115 12718 11290 12711 14585
Total 16612 16516 19548 21476 19371 21007 19938 19872 21688 20832 22256 (2000) 23575 (2001)
Q: Why are we having so many earthquakes? Has earthquake activity been increasing? Does this mean a big one is going to hit? OR We haven't had any earthquakes in a long time; does this mean that the pressure is building up?
Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant throughout this century and, according to our records, have actually seemed to decrease in recent years.
There are several reasons for the perception that the number of earthquakes, in general, and particularly destructive earthquakes is increasing.
1) A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications.
In 1931, there were about 350 stations operating in the world; today, there are more that 4,000 stations and the data now comes in rapidly from these stations by telex, computer and satellite. This increase in the number of stations and the more timely receipt of data has allowed us and other seismological centers to locate many small earthquakes which were undetected in earlier years, and we are able to locate earthquakes more rapidly.
The NEIC now locates about 12,000 to 14,000 earthquakes each year or approximately 50 per day. Also, because of the improvements in communications and the increased interest in natural disasters, the public now learns about more earthquakes. According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 18 major earthquakes (7.0 - 7.9) and one great earthquake (8.0 or above) in any given year. However, let's take a look at what has happened in the past 32 years, from 1969 through 2001, so far. Our records show that 1992, and 1995-1997 were the only years that we have reached or exceeded the long-term average number of major earthquakes since 1971. In 1970 and in 1971 we had 20 and 19 major earthquakes, respectively, but in other years the total was in many cases well below the 18 per year which we may expect based on the long-term average.
2) The population at risk is increasing. While the number of large earthquakes is fairly constant, population density in earthquake-prone areas is constantly increasing. In some countries, the new construction that comes with population growth has better earthquake resistance; but in many it does not. So we are now seeing increasing casualties from the same sized earthquakes.
3) Better global communication. Just a few decades ago, if several hundred people were killed by an earthquake in Indonesia or eastern China, for example, the media in the rest of the world would not know about it until several days, to weeks, later, long after such an event would be deemed “newsworthy”. So by the time this information was available, it would probably be relegated to the back pages of the newspaper, if at all. And the public Internet didn't even exist. We are now getting this information almost immediately.
4) Earthquake clustering and human psychology. While the average number of large earthquakes per year is fairly constant, earthquakes occur in clusters. This is predicted by various statistical models, and does not imply that earthquakes that are distant in location, but close in time, are causally related. But when such clusters occur, especially when they are widely reported in the media, they are noticed. However, during the equally anomalous periods during which no destructive earthquakes occur, no one deems this as remarkable.
A temporal increase in earthquake activity does not mean that a large earthquake is about to happen. Similarly, quiescence, or the lack of seismicity, does not mean a large earthquake is going to happen. A temporary increase or decrease in the seismicity rate is usually just part of the natural variation in the seismicity. There is no way for us to know whether or not this time it will lead to a larger earthquake. Swarms of small events, especially in geothermal areas, are common, and moderate-large magnitude earthquakes will typically have an aftershock sequence that follows. All that is normal and expected earthquake activity.
See NEIC's Earthquake Statistics webpage for the tables of earthquake counts by magnitude and year.
Are Earthquakes Really on the Increase?
We continue to be asked by many people throughout the world if earthquakes are on the increase. Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant.
A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications. In 1931, there were about 350 stations operating in the world; today, there are more than 8,000 stations and the data now comes in rapidly from these stations by electronic mail, internet and satellite. This increase in the number of stations and the more timely receipt of data has allowed us and other seismological centers to locate earthquakes more rapidly and to locate many small earthquakes which were undetected in earlier years. The NEIC now locates about 20,000 earthquakes each year or approximately 50 per day. Also, because of the improvements in communications and the increased interest in the environment and natural disasters, the public now learns about more earthquakes.
According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 17 major earthquakes (7.0 - 7.9) and one great earthquake (8.0 or above) in any given year.
Originally posted by whoshotJR
So what your saying is that smaller tremors are not a way to predict larger tremors in the future and we should ignore all tracking of earthquakes since its nothing new for the earth?
Devastating earthquakes in Asia, The Middle East, Africa and Latin America have served as recent reminders of the vulnerability of traditional, low-cost dwellings to seismic forces. The loss of life and livelihood is often drastic, with millions of people in the poorest communities most severely affected. Adobe (mudbrick) housing is particularly vulnerable because of its inherently brittle nature, wide-spread use, generally poor construction quality and the limited awareness of concepts of aseismic design and construction. Despite these limitations, there is little doubt that adobe-mudbrick will continue to be the choice construction material for the majority of the rural poor who simply cannot afford any alternative.
In response to these needs, Dominic has been working to develop low-cost and low-tech strengthening systems which have the potential to significantly reduce injuries and loss of life during major earthquakes.
Originally posted by skepticantiseptic
You keep on telling everyone that wizard of oz. Soon they will see that you are giving prognostications from behind the curtain using smoke and amplification to seem more important than you are.
Doom is coming and it will be a time of trouble so devastating that many will pray for death. Earthquakes figure in prominently in these end of days cataclysms that will signal the end of the history of modern man.
I make no claim as to my importance. I'm quoting that most revered ancient book that speaks of these times -->The Bible!