Complete economic collapse ? Yes.

But how people respond to it depends on the individual person, spirituality, and the culture..

The good guys, trust in the Almighty and try to help each other.

The bad guys stock up on guns and ammo and plot to kill to survive.

The Japanese will stand in line to get free soup.

Americans will snipe From roof tops with telescopic sights, and have no soup..

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A lot of people on ATS wish there was an economic collapse for no reason other than it makes for an entertaining topic of discussion on a conspiracy message board. I would say most of the stuff I read is mindless pandering and without factual evidence. Generic statements like "the whole house of cards will come crashing down, the sheeple will be in for a big surprise, blah blah frog in the boiling pot of water."

Seems to me this belief has more to do with dissatisfaction with the status quo rather than something based on reality. Things are bad, obviously, but life will go on. The economy is on life support, sure, but it would have collapsed already if it was really as bad as people say it is.

I will eat my hat if the economy collapses and we are all standing in breadlines. You can hold me to that.

I doubt people actually want to live through economic collapse, but I think Hollywood films have a good way of romanticizing an apocalyptic scenario in contrast to the doldrums of modern civilized life.

Since this board is full of skeptics, the opinion that hell is around the corner is more easily galvanized by the mob mentality of ATS saying that everything the government says is a lie or half-truth.

If the government went public stating that the sky is blue, then the contrarians of ATS would present some bizarre conspiracy theory involving reptilian genetic manipulation through HAARP + project bluebeam bending the light spectrum in the atmosphere.

This country has been through a lot worse. I have to admit, things aren't looking great, but we haven't even spent 12% of the stimulus package. Relax folks.

[edit on 5-10-2009 by northexpedition]

I'm interested in the discussion about social structures and how we now have a system in place to support the unemployed when such systems didn't exist the last time.

But, is this structure able to be supported with ever-decreasing tax revenue and ever-increasing national debt?

A few things that I haven't seen mentioned here...

1. The global financial systems are now far more intricately connected than they were in the 1930's. The opportunities for "financial acts of war" are numerous. The chances of a single event anywhere in the world damaging the global economy have increased significantly. Imagine if (god forbid) there was a large-scale attack on any financial institution in London or NY tomorrow. With the economy already struggling, this could deal a fatal blow in an instant.

2. America is in record debt, without an end in sight. Your children and their children WILL be paying it off for generations to come. This isn't a myth or a delusion, it is a fact. The paying out is set to continue with leaders pledging to "support business" until it no longer needs it. What if that is a decade down the line? We could quite literally find ourselves unable to comprehend the amount of debt we bury ourselves under.

3. Two years ago analysts began stating that the leadership is shifting away from America. After the disastrous leadership of Bush (what did you expect, he collapsed several businesses and you expect him to make the right decisions in the running of a country?), wars on two fronts, his response to 9/11... it was seemingly inevitable that America would loose respect and dominance across the globe. China and Russia are in position to pick up the baton, so where does this leave your foreign policy? Will America allow this to happen organically, or will they fight to try to regain control? How much would that cost? Are you in a position to pay for that kind of fight?

4. Several nations are discussing the use of alternative currency as reserve. I am not certain what this would do to the $, but I can guarantee that if nations start moving away from using the $ as reserve currency, this will certainly affect your own economy significantly.

All in all, I can see why people simply don't want to face the facts of this crisis. But burying your head in the sand and pretending it's not as bad as it looks is not sensible.
None of us have experienced this kind of crisis before. And that is perhaps why we have a certain naivety as to what it actually all means for us individually. Sure, some will manage nicely. I haven't found any problems yet because I don't have my own place, I'm in a secure industry. The only thing I've noticed is things being unavailable or delayed when buying on-line.

But many will struggle.

The primary issue will be government operations and social structures. As our governments fall deeper and deeper into debt, and unemployment rises, tax income falls, cuts are made, standards drop, health drops, education drops, defence is affected, arguments ensue, skirmishes break out, they turn into war...

We have seen this before, and we need to learn from history in order to prevent its repeat.

To map the September 1929 collapse to this one we would also use the September 2008 collapse. Although there were earlier warnings of what was to happen the market collapse was the obvious sign.

We have not yet shook off the parasitic programs started after the 1930s. Those should have been temporary. We should NOT have social security, welfare, or other programs that seems to be self-supporting. Instead private churches or other private non-profits should be there for those who need it. This would result in less gaming of the system by opportunists and foreigners, who occasionally collect benefits as multiple people.

According to the BLS, 138 Million people are employed. There are 305 Million people in the US (as of June 2008), and there are 236 Million non-institutional people over 16 years old. Less than half of the people support the majority.

Anyone here questions that maybe MAYBE the numbers coming out from the Fed and from labor department are SLIGHTLY manipulated to keep the true extent of our problems from being known?

I mean, wasn't it four or five years ago that the Fed stopped reporting the M3 money supply, ostensibly because they didn't feel it important enough to report, but really to prevent the world from seeing, even then, just how much money it was printing?

Two numbers that are always sent for political review before public release are inflation numbers and employment numbers. I believe that is why there are so many different categories in those releases. Headline Inflation numbers always exclude fuel and food (cause people don't drive or eat ) and Headline employment #s only count those receiving benefits. I personally believe that U-6 is the best indicator of unemployment levels in this economy. Myself and many people I know are working in jobs under their ability and earning potential just to make ends meet.

The 9.8% number I guarantee is manipulated either through birth/death model or seasonal adjustment to keep it under 10%. If you look at the U-6 number we're pretty darn close to that 20% UE rate.

Originally posted by northexpedition
The economy is on life support, sure, but it would have collapsed already if it was really as bad as people say it is.

Notice how your statement contradicts itself. This is why paranoid folks are smarter.

This country has been through a lot worse. I have to admit, things aren't looking great, but we haven't even spent 12% of the stimulus package. Relax folks.

And what do you think will happen when the rest is spent? Inflation!

Originally posted by northexpedition
Seems to me this belief has more to do with dissatisfaction with the status quo rather than something based on reality. Things are bad, obviously, but life will go on. The economy is on life support, sure, but it would have collapsed already if it was really as bad as people say it is.

I will eat my hat if the economy collapses and we are all standing in breadlines. You can hold me to that.

[edit on 5-10-2009 by northexpedition]

While Black Tuesday took place in 1929 the economy of the great depression really didn't crash until late 1930 and into 1931 when deflation kicked in. Furthermore, it didn't bottom until 1933.

There is so much more (CRE, Debt, dollar value) that can / may happen while the Fed tries to get everything under control, to say that it would have taken place by now is, well, a bit short sighted.

It may be your opinion, and that I cannot argue with, but when looking at the known risks, which are greater now than before the first collapse, things could reach a situation that mirrors last fall (if not worse).

You are right, life will go on just as it did after the long depression and the great depression. The real question; however, is what will life be like AFTER the economy bottom and the problems are worked out.