Swine Flu To Be Declared Global Pandemic *UPDATE* Level 6 Official

reply to post by PrisonerOfSociety


LOL! I was actually considering wearing a med mask. Unfortunately, as a contract employee, they don't have to give reasons as to why they sack you. We aren't as protected by law as regular full-time, part-time and casual employee's.

IRM

This strand of flu still has the potential to grow and spread across the world. Many people are unaware that this is not the first time that the H1N1 virus has been declared a pandemic. The first pandemic of the H1N1 virus was originally named the Spanish Flu, 1918-1919. This strand was First identified early in March 1918 in US troops training at Camp Funston, Kansa. By October 1918, it had spread to become a world-wide pandemic on all continents, and eventually infected an estimated one third of the world's population (about 500 million people). Unusually deadly and virulent, it ended nearly as quickly as it began, vanishing completely within 18 months. In six months some 50 million were dead. An estimated 17 million died in India, 675,000 in the United States and 200,000 in the UK.

The virus was recently reconstructed by scientests at the CDC studying remains preserved by the Alaskan permafrost. They identified this type of virus as H1N1 or Swine flu.

its a lvl 6 and u still here officials saying its not a big deal,they have the vure ,ahhh

Correct me if I am wrong here but to respond to those who are saying this only killed 141 people or my immune system will fight it off:

My understanding is one of the reasons its being considered a pandemic is how easily it is transmitted to each other.

So lets say the normal flue infects 1,000,000 and .5 percent are killed by it thats 50,000 people.

Since this swine flu strain is so easily transmitted it could infect *lets say* 10 times the same number of people 10,000,000 and it has the same mortality rate of .5 percent that means it could kill 500,000 people Isn't that the issue? The number infected can be a lot higher so the number of deaths will be much higher.

Also, its my understanding that with this flu, like the 1918 flu, what kills you is your immune system going into overdrive, so if you are young and healthy you are actually *more* at risk. (unlike the normal flu that kills people at risk/ lowered immune system)

Finally, it also may mutate which could cause the mortality rate to be higher. So if the number of infections is high and the mortality rate is higher than the normal flu you have a real problem.

Lastly travel being restricted at this point would be irrelevant because its already traveled around the world so closing borders would not help anything.

My points are
1) higher infection rate causing more people to be infected, causing the normal death rate to climb given the same mortality rate.
2) a good immune system is a bad thing in this case.
3) the possibility of a mutation causing the mortality rate to be higher as well.

Am I wrong in this?


edited to correct numbers

[edit on 12-6-2009 by deepwoods]

reply to post by deepwoods


That's pretty much spot on. Just try not to get it now, as a second infection in autumn may be worse as your white blood cells will already have gone 'wtf'.

Normal flu = young and old
Piggy flu = healthy

Drink shed loads of OJ.

The only time I heard that swine flu is more at risk to the healthy is because your immune system gets you was when the initial 'shock and awe' of the hundreds dead in Mexico (when it turned out to be 12).

So is it true? Does this Swine flu attack those with healthy immune systems worse?

And the mortality rate in the US is something like 0.27% (when I last checked). That's pretty low, and it's even lower in other countries such as Australia (0%). So what's the big scare?
People say, 'yeah, well it's not lethal yet, but it could mutate into something more deadly'. Well I have a question. Is 'Swine Flu' any more likely to mutate than any other flu? I know we apparantly have a higher immunity for regular flu, so why don't we just let it run it's course, and have the community build up an immunity to it before it mutates? I guess I'll get flamed for that, but just wondering. I can see how you would want to prevent it. No-one wants to get the flu, any flu, but there seems to be a lot of hype. And a lot of mention of Tamiflu in the news too. Rumsfeld will be making a rather large profit from this 'pandemic'...

I am really starting to wonder if some posters actually bother to read other posts. Someone just explained, quite well, why there is real reason to be concerned. Please I urge those "on the fence" to read the other two large swine flu threads. All of your questions would be answered and there would be no doubts. Hundreds of hours were put into research on those other threads. Top scientists now expect this flu to follow the 1918 pattern. Please, go read.

I have posted info on another thread, with sources, on the topic of employer liability. If a teacher is likely to contract the virus in the community at large, then your employer has no legal responsibility for your contraction of the illness. This is not the case for healthcare workers--they would recieve workers comp.

However.....if a teacher were to sue in the U.S. where actual infection rates are grossly underreported, it would force the authorities to demonstrate that the virus is widespread in the community. The teacher would lose, but it would be interesting.

reply to post by DaddyBare


I wouldn't worry about a plague epidemic- i's too difficult to spread person-person, unless it goes pneumonic, or if the rodents that carry it are on the move.

It DOES make sense, though, that it's popping up- whenever the environment is stressed, it shows up. there have been hundreds- possibly thousands- of outbreaks of plague throughout time. It tends to follow flu. For example, in 1319-1324 there were waves of flu around the globe- and the big one- Black Death- hit in 1346. Opportunistic infections follow flu like hungry people follow newly baked bread.

If we see hundreds of cases in the West or southwest, I'll get concerned.

Yersinia pestis is easily treatable with streptomycin, pennicillin, erythromycin, etc., becuase it's not been around long enough in the antibiotic age to gain resistance. Unless it's weaponized- in which case, we're in big trouble.

One disease at a time (at least statistically) will help ease your mind, but your vigilance will ensure that if it blows up- we can alert the media and the medical community about it.

Good post!

OUOTE: “Also yesterday, Education Secretary Arne Duncan and Health & Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius sent a joint letter to all schools in the U.S. on the current status of H1N1 planning. In their letter, the secretaries express appreciation to teachers, parents and administrators for a job well done, but they underscore that the novel H1N1 virus is expected to persist as a problem into the fall and that a vaccine is unlikely to be ready until weeks after the school year starts. Schools have a major role to play in combating H1N1, because, as stated in the letter, this virus has been shown to affect children disproportionately, and children are known to be highly likely to transmit flu viruses.

The secretaries are urging schools to reinforce their planning for interventions, including those for disinfecting touched surfaces, policies that are enforced on exclusion of students and staff with flu-like symptoms, or school closures for extended periods. Another consideration is how to accommodate requests for schools to serve as vaccine distribution locations. The list of recommendations for schools to address in their “all hazards planning” over the summer includes, for instance, updating emergency plans and contact lists.” boardbuzz.nsba.org...

reply to post by cpdaman


The "annointments" to which you're referring in the middle ages were a host of healthy and deadly stuff:

Mercury- kills bugs but people, too. But theives, graverobbers, etc., also used euphrasia ( eyebright), feverfew, mullein, belladonna (can kill-often does-, but kills bugs, too), a well as a whole host of plants that act as anti-bacterials and -virals.

If you want to use herbology to keep well- as we do- safely- send me a note. We're chemists and have researched just about everything out there. I'd be happy to share- as a scientist, not a doctor. Your decisions regarding the info is yours.

Peace.

reply to post by asala


I'm sorry about your sister (and I know this is a response to another poster- so I'm responding by proxy...).

The good news is that pneumonia, as a secondary infection, is treatable with antibiotics most of the time. Don't forget to boost her immune response with Vit D, Co Q10, Slippery Elm, Vit C, E, A, , etc.

It astounds me 9and shouldn't) that so many new cases are being reported since the "declaration". Does anyone els think that states and countried have been holding onto "real" numbers until Level 6? And isn't it just so bloody convenint that Novartis has a vaccine nearly ready, from Switzerland, land of the WHO????????????????????

I wonder when the REAL numbers will be reported.

in chicago, there is so little traffic, it's eerie. A nornally 2-hour trip of 30 miles into town from the 'burbs is taking 15-20 minutes. Yesterday morning we counted 24 cars on a main rural highway during rush hour- a street that is regularly so congested it takes 20 minutes to travel 3 or 4 miles.

More people have passed, or are in hospital than we can even count right now, IMO. Has anyone had the same experience?

Blessings to your sister. I hope and pray she will survive to live a full life- a candle is lit at our house for her.

reply to post by DeadFlagBlues


OK- that can't be serious. I'm so repulsed right now I'm out of words (hard to believe, right?_

I'll look into this. I don't doubt you, DeadFlagBlues- but I can't get my arms around this level of freaking sick behaviour. Will also look into this and post what I find, if I can stomach it.

As I've asked before- is there a rational country out there who would except two healthy, productive adults? I'm less and less tied to my USA Passport........

reply to post by toast317


With you. My husband, family- small group of freinds. Completely with you on this. There will be NO VACCINES in this home if I have to buy a shotgun.

reply to post by DangerDeath


Don't forget this very important fact: the death rates CDC uses each year are extrapolations from the 1918 flu, and an meta-analysis of seasonal flu deaths.

In the USA, influenza is NOT, I repeat, NOT a reportable diseas, and has not been since 1918-1919. SO- the numbers are base on a population extrapolation- if x died in 1918 and we have a population of y, then z will be the average flu death rate. thes numbers are MADE UP.

Certainly, people die from flu each year, but not nearly in the numbers reported- because it's not reportable!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Because of that- 140-some deaths world-wide, and a de novo strain that is hoghly contagious and world-wide IS a risk to us all. We don't have native immunity to it- and if we had it in the early spring and it mutates, we won't have immunity this autumn.

This is more serious than anyone is letting on. I'm not suggesting panic; merely that we take necessary precautions- sleep, organic food, stress reduction (stress casues release of adrenalin and cortisol- both of which lower the immune response).

reply to post by PrisonerOfSociety


I read yesterday that Chad and Nigeria are being hit very hard- don't have the link at present, but will post it tomorrow.

I don’t see what the big fuss is about. The media hype it up.
It was the same with bird flu.

Everyone then panics and goes to get their flu shots (like that helps) and end up getting the flu anyway.

I’ve never once got those flu shots and I’ve never gotten a bad case of the flu... living in Europe and Australia!

141 people have died from it.... over 30 thousand die every year from normal flu anyway!

I’m just hoping this stupid pandemic crap doesn’t get in the way of my holidays to Japan and Europe in 2 weeks.

Mikey

I don’t see what the big fuss is about. The media hype it up. It was the same with bird flu. Everyone then panics and goes to get their flu shots (like that helps) and end up getting the flu anyway. I’ve never once got those flu shots and I’ve never gotten a bad case of the flu... living in Europe and Australia! 141 people have died from it.... over 30 thousand die every year from normal flu anyway! I’m just hoping this stupid pandemic crap doesn’t get in the way of my holidays to Japan and Europe in 2 weeks

thats ok, american idol will be on before long.. it will entertain.


Sorry to sound rude, but there are about 1000 pages of info showing what the big deal is. Sure it may blow over to be nothing but odds are not in our favor for it.
There are real reasons to be concerned. While i would not reccomend full panic mode, taking it serious and learning about it and the cause and effects of and from it, would be a good idea for the coming wave.

Originally posted by severdsoul

thats ok, american idol will be on before long.. it will entertain.


Sorry to sound rude, but there are about 1000 pages of info showing what the big deal is. Sure it may blow over to be nothing but odds are not in our favor for it.
There are real reasons to be concerned. While i would not reccomend full panic mode, taking it serious and learning about it and the cause and effects of and from it, would be a good idea for the coming wave.

American Idol? Sorry, that's in your country, with something like over 100 million people watching it... kinda sad, and scarier than swine flu.

Not really my cup of tea.

Personally I don't find anything at all to be worried about swine flu, one of my friends here at Uni got it (was on a bus with someone who just got off a flight from the US), he was in quarantine for 1 week.... he’s out now and nothing wrong with him.

All hype over not much, to scare people into... and by the looks of it it’s working. The medical companies must be laughing with the amount they are making from this.

Ridiculous.

I could sit here, panic, cover up and not go travelling... or I could ignore the media and people who fallow it and get one with my things. I choose the “get on with it” option.

It will all go away, just like all the other scare tactics and things will go back to normal, that is until the next one comes.

Now.... go back to your “Idol” and wear the mask.

Mikey



[edit on 13/6/2009 by Mikey84]

American Idol? Sorry, that's in your country, with something like over 100 million people watching it... kinda sad, and scarier than swine flu.

Not really my cup of tea.

Yea, it is sad that there are that many that get into that... quite the sad excuse for a show..
Personaly the most i have seen of it was the comercials, and that was to much.

Personally I don't find anything at all to be worried about swine flu, one of my friends here at Uni got it (was on a bus with someone who just got off a flight from the US), he was in quarantine for 1 week.... he’s out now and nothing wrong with him.

All hype over not much, to scare people into... and by the looks of it it’s working. The medical companies must be laughing with the amount they are making from this.

[\quote]

Right now, its worrysom but nothing to panic about, but the mutation speculation, would be something to keep a close eye on.

I could sit here, panic, cover up and not go travelling... or I could ignore the media and people who fallow it and get one with my things. I choose the “get on with it” option.

It will all go away, just like all the other scare tactics and things will go back to normal, that is until the next one comes.
[\quote]
Well, dont blame you there, have to live. Be it flu, or any other thing out there, one can not limit their future based on speculation and reports. Its just a good idea to keep up to date on the changes and evolving of it.

Now.... go back to your “Idol” and wear the mask.

Mikey

Wear the mask? but wont people kick me out of stores if thats all i have on? *lol*
[edit on 13/6/2009 by Mikey84]