The New Great Game

Iran unrest to dominate G8 summit

Unrest in Iran is expected to dominate discussions between foreign ministers as they prepare to meet for a G8 summit in Italy.

The future of Afghanistan had been the original focus of the summit in Trieste, but Iran's post-election violence has shifted the attention.

As a neighbour of Afghanistan, Iran had been invited to attend the summit along with other bordering countries.

Nabucco, an American piece for a European orchestra

MOSCOW. (Alexander Knyazev, director of the regional branch of the Institute of the CIS, for RIA Novosti) - The European Union and Turkey plan to sign an intergovernmental agreement on the Nabucco natural gas pipeline project on June 25 in Ankara.

Why such a romantic name?

"Nabucco" is an opera by Giuseppe Verdi based on a biblical story about the plight of the Jews as they are assaulted and subsequently exiled from their homeland by the Babylonian King Nabucco (Nebuchadnezzar). It is also an enchanting story of love and struggle for power.

The latter element of the story is probably the only thing in common between the opera and the gas pipeline project initiated by U.S. President George W. Bush and based on some European and post-Soviet countries' non-love of Russia, as well as the global battle for elbowing Russia out of the Eurasian gas market.

en.rian.ru...

I heard unsubstantiated reports of a military coup in Iran.

Second line....nothing on the news but MJ stuff.

[edit on 25-6-2009 by whiteraven]

Afghanistan's counternarcotics minister said Sunday that his country's drug policy is "perfect," a day after the United States changed course and announced it would no longer support efforts to eradicate opium poppy plants. (June 28)

Bad link cant figure out why.

Suf their page its there
=35157&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=ca9f54c0cc]LINK

Meanwhile, for Russia the threat of the SCO becoming a Chinese Trojan horse is ever-present. On the sidelines of the summit Chinese President Hu Jintao met with the leaders of Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The Chinese government has pledged up to $10 billion in loans to the five nations of Central Asia that are struggling through the economic crisis (The Times, June 17). Apart from a $2 billion loan to Kyrgyzstan (which some suggest is a bribe to expel the U.S. base from Manas), Russia has been AWOL to many of the states in the region that are looking for leadership amidst the crisis.

[edit on 29-6-2009 by SLAYER69]

Originally posted by SLAYER69
=35157&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=ca9f54c0cc]LINK

Meanwhile, for Russia the threat of the SCO becoming a Chinese Trojan horse is ever-present. On the sidelines of the summit Chinese President Hu Jintao met with the leaders of Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The Chinese government has pledged up to $10 billion in loans to the five nations of Central Asia that are struggling through the economic crisis (The Times, June 17). Apart from a $2 billion loan to Kyrgyzstan (which some suggest is a bribe to expel the U.S. base from Manas), Russia has been AWOL to many of the states in the region that are looking for leadership amidst the crisis.

SLAYER,

Good tracking. This is the first intimation of something that won't hit the press for a while but has happening in the background.

Russia is (past tense term for intercourse)

Complex politics, the 'stan states recall bad history with the Soviet Union. Russia has made offers they CAN resist.

China and the US, despite reports, are synchronized in most aspects of foreign policy. Russia will be the odd man out.

Putin has made some really catastrophic economic decisions that will be coming to light very soon.

Remember after the 1991 collapse they confessed they were bluffing about a lot of things like actual gold reserves, nuclear armament, etc. Remember the same guys are still around, a bit older, up to the same tricks.

Russia looks, acts, talks, walks, like they are on the Winning Team. It's mostly bravado. A certain source of quality intelligence has gotten wind of Russia's actual military capability vs the one they pretend to have. Low profile India could knock them over with a feather.

Russian problems in the Eastern part of the country will soon be news.

This will sound like cryptic to most reading it.

There's a reason why Russians are so big into information suppression.
It usually means thing to hide. Russia lies about practically everything.

Watch what unfolds in the next year.


Mike


[edit on 29-6-2009 by mmiichael]

reply to post by mmiichael

China and the US, despite reports, are synchronized in most aspects of foreign policy. Russia will be the odd man out.

There is no doubt about it in my mind that China and the U.S. are operating in tandem in most things and I suspect we might both be under the same chain of leadership.

I think the question people might want to eventually ask, is Russia really the odd man out or cast in the roll of the odd man to make the Chinese/American umbrella more attractive to those getting rained on?

Putin has made some really catastrophic economic decisions that will be coming to light very soon.

If true which is highly likely the question is did Putin make some really catastrophic economic decisions because we gave him no choice but to make them as in for example what we did with the Space Based Defense Initiative in the 1980’s?

Cause/reaction, whether duped in an all is fair version of love and war or through miscalculation and ineptitude the end net result does not vary, but does U.S. long term strategy of manipulating and capitalizing on Russia’s paranoia ever vary either?

Remember after the 1991 collapse they confessed they were bluffing about a lot of things like actual gold reserves, nuclear armament, etc. Remember the same guys are still around, a bit older, up to the same tricks.

Mike if the Jews of the world suffered a holocaust under the Nazis (metaphorically speaking there and not suggesting that they in fact did not) then the Russians suffered Hell on earth in the ferocity of Operation Barbarossa and places like the Siege of Stalingrad where even the dead were still being shot and blown up and the rubble bombed into more rubble. War is an ugly thing by nature by I suspect the Soviets bore witness to and the brunt of the ugliest, most brutal, widest, and most invasive form of war ever witnessed on this planet.

To say that it left their national psyche scarred and paranoid would be an understatement.

Russia looks, acts, talks, walks, like they are on the Winning Team. It's mostly bravado. A certain source of quality intelligence has gotten wind of Russia's actual military capability vs the one they pretend to have. Low profile India could knock them over with a feather.

Not only does Russia suffer from outdated military equipment its military usually suffers from poor training and low moral. Life in the Russian military is often like life on an 18th Century British Man-of-War…Not too fun!

I think the real thing to always be cognizant of with Russia just as with the United States in a long protracted war where they can secure most of their borders and it comes down to a kill or be killed world where political ideology becomes secondary and not primary the Russians can draw on a huge reserve of natural resources, man power, industry and a diverse relatively skilled population to crank out an endless supply of armaments and men and women in Uniform. In the biggest wars it is that ability that has led to nations like the United States and Russia being victorious.

If you don’t knock them out quick and decisively whether it’s punch drunk, or vodka drunk the Russians are no strangers to catching their balance and persevering with a legendary tenacity in ‘kill or be killed’ situations.

I don’t think it is ever wise to discount them too significantly, or to assume any battle plan will take them out in a quick and decisive blow.

There's a reason why Russians are so big into information suppression.
It usually means thing to hide. Russia lies about practically everything.

From girlfriends to the local grocer I am trying to find people that don’t lie about everything? How is that working out for you Mike, it doesn’t work too well for me!

The Russians, in my opinion , should be held in high regard for if they had not fought so hard during WW2 we would all be reading history from a German viewpoint.

The US came into WW2 very late and came into Berlin after the Russian's and Germans had pulverized each other.

The Russian troops during the German invasion were shot if they retreated.

They are our brutal cousins.

[edit on 29-6-2009 by whiteraven]

Well ok let's not fight WWII all over again...
Russia can fight no doubt. However the Russians who were poor, dumb, and starving peasants then have been replaced by Russians of 2009 who are every bit as westernized as the rest of the world and want their ipods and jeans.

I see both sides of this one. I think this has something to do with BRIC.
Brazil, Russia, India, China.

Brazil and India are pro US their economies are doing great relatively speaking. China is booming and Russia is really the odd man out.

No offense to anybody but Russia outside of a massive nuclear stock pile and great space technology their economy is rather stagnate. They have shown in the past two decades a horrible ability to mismanage their natural resources. People think the US is corrupt.


Gold IMO will be the real issue....

The perils of multipolarity

Russia, the host of the BRIC meeting, is nothing more than a random beneficiary of clever Goldman Sachs acronym creation. Unlike the other three countries, its population is modest and declining, while the bankruptcy of its resources policies becomes obvious when they are compared to Brazil's. Expropriation of both foreign and domestic resource producers and use of the resources as a political weapon against neighboring countries are not characteristic of sound long-term resources management, to say the least. It's likely that the primitive and kleptocratic Russian economic system will show its defects increasingly in future years, and while oil prices may remain high, they are unlikely to remain high enough to allow Russia to continue rapid economic growth.

ALSO...

The final solution to the BRICs' currency problem is gold. Russia and China might welcome a move towards a gold exchange system. China has immense foreign currency reserves, which if invested in gold would be protected against inflation. Russia is one of the world's largest gold producers, with output of 163 tonnes in 2007 and reserves totaling 85 years of production. Brazil is also a substantial gold producer; as with other minerals much of its output is controlled by international companies. The odd country out is India, with foreign exchange reserves that are modest in comparison to the size of its economy. Nevertheless, while it would not be in the interests of the United States or the EU to move towards a gold standard, it might very well be in the interests of three of the four BRICs.

A multipolar world will thus be more protectionist and more nationalist than the US-dominated global economy we have grown used to. On the plus side, it might move towards the establishment of a global currency system that provided a true store of value, without the incessant inflation that has bedeviled the dollar's reign. On the minus side, the move towards protectionism will decrease global output below what might otherwise be available, although it seems unlikely that even the BRICs would wish to move to the full protectionism of the 1930s.

Finally, a cautionary note. A multipolar world economy by definition is more liable to conflict than a unipolar one; there is more to fight about and no hegemon to keep the peace. 1914 did not happen by accident.

[edit on 29-6-2009 by SLAYER69]

Originally posted by ProtoplasmicTraveler
There is no doubt about it in my mind that China and the U.S. are operating in tandem in most things and I suspect we might both be under the same chain of leadership.

I think the question people might want to eventually ask, is Russia really the odd man out or cast in the roll of the odd man to make the Chinese/American umbrella more attractive to those getting rained on?

did Putin make some really catastrophic economic decisions because we gave him no choice but to make them as in for example what we did with the Space Based Defense Initiative in the 1980’s?

Cause/reaction, whether duped in an all is fair version of love and war or through miscalculation and ineptitude the end net result does not vary, but does U.S. long term strategy of manipulating and capitalizing on Russia’s paranoia ever vary either?

Let’s just say I talk to people who talk to people. I’m relaying a synthesis from what I’ve heard recently.

Russia has some real problems these days. They have been hit by the Global Meltdown much harder than most realize. I mean disastrously. The non-materialization of revenues anticipated from high oil prices has caused a set of avoided problems to come to the surface.

Russia is constantly pushing it’s borders outwards to maintain buffers for itself. This is a drain on the coffers. They lack a proper transportation system to region beyond the European Western side. That’s a real impediment. Maintaining their vast standing arming, undiscussed environmental crises, food distribution problems, uncontrolled crime, anticipated investment financing eluding them, etc. They country seemed on the rise, now in a treading water situation. In a phrase, falling apart.

Putin and cronies did a raid of the piggy bank and genuinely thought 2008-10 were going to boom years and festering problems would be addressed. It’s more expensive to fix a run down house than a well maintained one

the Russians suffered Hell on earth in the ferocity of Operation Barbarossa and places like the Siege of Stalingrad where even the dead were still being shot and blown up and the rubble bombed into more rubble. War is an ugly thing by nature by I suspect the Soviets bore witness to and the brunt of the ugliest, most brutal, widest, and most invasive form of war ever witnessed on this planet.

To say that it left their national psyche scarred and paranoid would be an understatement.

We are at odds on this issue. The world has changed. So has the nature of remembering. The past really is the past. People don't live out their localized history so much. The spectre of the past is often raised, and things are not forgotten easily. But the world like it's citizens lives paycheck to paycheck now.

Time has accelerated geometrically. WWII is as far back in the mind as the American Civil War. The Russian Revolution is something in ancient history. Something old people and intellectual talk about.

Yes the Russians are strong-willed proud, fierce, by nature. But that’s describing the Russians of a bygone era. Their spirit is broke, today there is a malaise. They are depressed, drinking heavily, not producing babies. There is no pride just increasing cynicism.

I think the real thing to always be cognizant of with Russia just as with the United States in a long protracted war where they can secure most of their borders and it comes down to a kill or be killed world where political ideology becomes secondary and not primary the Russians can draw on a huge reserve of natural resources, man power, industry and a diverse relatively skilled population to crank out an endless supply of armaments and men and women in Uniform. In the biggest wars it is that ability that has led to nations like the United States and Russia being victorious.

If you don’t knock them out quick and decisively whether it’s punch drunk, or vodka drunk the Russians are no strangers to catching their balance and persevering with a legendary tenacity in ‘kill or be killed’ situations.

I don’t think it is ever wise to discount them too significantly, or to assume any battle plan will take them out in a quick and decisive blow.

I doubt Russia will be able to fight a conventional war any time soon. Take my word. Georgia was a strain to look professional and intimidating. A remaining strength is their weapons and systems technology and designs. But that’s slipping, too. Their clients are most often marginalized players like Iran, places that still respect their past record.

Putin is a chess player. You have to be to run Russia. But it's 3 dimensional chess now. Something the Chinese are best at. Putin is still trying to outfox the US on too primary a level. Beating them at their own game not undermining them is a better strategy. He is still a KGB agent at heart.

They could be a contender. Still have their reputation, knowledge, history, location, in the ground wealth, keeps them in the game. But holding it all together is not Putin’s focus. Just gamesmanship. They sorely require direction and leadership, not interim management.

Some talks going on between channels. Some surprises for those who rely on newspaper analysis. Watch for a warming up of Russia and Israel sometime soon.

From girlfriends to the local grocer I am trying to find people that don’t lie about everything? How is that working out for you Mike, it doesn’t work too well for me!

We remember the lies. But people can be surprisingly honest, and candid, too. I get mixed results. Being strong but acting weak evokes sympathy rather than animosity. Works for most of the time.


Mike

I'm writing a new thread stay tuned



Snippet. from Source

The US inability to lead may be temporary. The United States has many -attributes that will bring it back into a close relation with other states. These skills include patient cooperation, as shown in the Cold War, and a unique capacity to deploy and use force distant from its own shores. The United States remains the one power that maintains a world-wide network of alliances. Moreover, the US body politic is genetically imprinted with a vision of the United States as the savior of a corrupt and troubled world. Yet the United States is caught up in the consequences of maintaining its vision and its interventions on the cheap, without resorting to either conscription or taxation. The initial US response to the Russian intervention in Georgia—the bluster not matched by effective action—confirmed that US power is operating under severe constraints. Even under a new president, and with the worst of Iraq behind it, the US capacity to embark on a revived global role will be limited.

I just want to add a codicil to my recent rants.

I really have nothing against Russia. Studied the language and literature in University. Think they are smarter than Americans as people. More soul, depth, heart - the important things in life quality.

But losing most of the 20th Century to a political system that didn't work the way it was supposed to has cause heart problems. The patient is ailing.

A ray of hope when the US and Russia were on more co-operative terms in the 90s. The Us admin treated them as second class citizens and that affront to their ego is what is remembered.

Putin takes it all seriously. But he shows a disregard for the people which they now are sensing. He's a good strategist but not someone who evokes personal loyalty.

Mob run countries don't do so well in the long haul. Russians hate the word Revolution. The loss of hope can be fatal for people as well as countries.

So a lot of patching up but no real movement from them other than trying to look like they're still #2.

Wish that weren't the case. Competition is good for everyone.


Mike



[edit on 29-6-2009 by mmiichael]

Russian exercises anger Georgia

Russian forces have begun their biggest military exercise in the Caucasus since the war with Georgia last year.

More than 8,000 troops are taking part in the manoeuvres near the Georgian border, which Georgia has called "a pure provocation from Russia".

Last month Nato angered Russia by staging exercises in Georgia itself.

It looks like there is an expansion into Africa now:
India and China, Neocolonial Powers for Africa

Alot of the youth in Russia seem to follow Putin.

I believe Putin even has his guys organize weddings and such for a wide range of youth.

I had seen a film once in which the Russian youth were meeting under the guise of "the new Russia" ...so their must be a propaganda arm pushing a new ...vibrant Russia.

Any Russians on ATS?

Originally posted by whiteraven
Alot of the youth in Russia seem to follow Putin.

I believe Putin even has his guys organize weddings and such for a wide range of youth.

I had seen a film once in which the Russian youth were meeting under the guise of "the new Russia" ...so their must be a propaganda arm pushing a new ...vibrant Russia.

Putin has been pushing youth culture with weird 'love camps' to encourage baby production.

Abortion is the usual response to pregnancy. The country's population goes down 700.000 a year. Life expectancy is about the lowest among advanced countries. Drug and alcohol abuse in staggering.

Anecdotal stories and propaganda notwithstanding, Russia is not a fun place.

Mike

Russia clinches gas contract with Azerbaijan

BAKU, Azerbaijan (AFP) — Russian gas giant Gazprom clinched a deal Monday to buy natural gas from ex-Soviet Azerbaijan, as Moscow seeks to extend its grip on potential European energy supplies in the resource-rich Caspian Sea.

The agreement was signed by Gazprom chief executive Alexei Miller and Azerbaijani national energy company chief Rovnag Abdullayev in the presence of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev.

"I think that we will be able to take this work further, in view of greater opportunities and greater volumes, which will be increased," Medvedev told journalists in Baku.

I am not sticking up for Russia by any stretch of the word...although I have deep respect for them.

So far as WW2 goes the European Theatre allowed Eisenhower to take advantage of the German/Russian Front.

He may have waited it out to save lives although Patton wanted to get too Berlin ASAP.

The Canadians and Auzies did a lot of Brit dirty work.

Churchill sat back and took comfort in the Russian/German front as it allowed the Allies to regroup.

This is a very simplified look at the scenario...and can be looked at from many different viewpoints...but the above is one narrow sliver of the complex history we call WW2.

My heart lies with God and Queen.

Anyhow WW2 was a culmination of the Great Game and we entered into another version known as the cold war.

Now we seem to be into another phase.

Last phase for some.

New phase for whoever the new victors will be.

Originally posted by SLAYER69
Russian exercises anger Georgia

Russian forces have begun their biggest military exercise in the Caucasus since the war with Georgia last year.

More than 8,000 troops are taking part in the manoeuvres near the Georgian border, which Georgia has called "a pure provocation from Russia".

A candid retort to Russia's military stomping around tactics is below. An interesting if over-the-top source run by a lady calling herself "La Russophobe" who has little regard for Mother Russia.

I know it's a minority viewpoint not accepting all of Russia's propagandized
threats of aggression. But I believe there's a world of difference between what they says the can, and are prepared to do, and what they are now capable of actually achieving.

Russia really wants out of the conventional war business. They can't really
deliver the goods any more, and are scared witless of a confrontation that will expose this.

Mike

larussophobe.wordpress.com...

Russia between a Rock and a Hardened Silo

Where its military policy is concerned these days, Russia finds itself between a rock and a hardened nuclear missile silo.

On the one hand, Russia would like to rely more on nuclear weapons than conventional armies. The former are much less expensive and much easier to control. Ballistic missiles don’t humiliate you by cutting of each other’s genitals and such, and they don’t have to be fed three times a day. The Russian economy is in abject freefall, and the Kremlin is simply running out of funds to pay the massive overhead of the neo-Red Army. It’s already been forced to cut thousands of officers from the payroll, as if it were engaged in nothing more than corporate downsizing.

But to rely on nuclear weapons means getting involved in a technology race, an innovation race, a creative thinking and productivity race, with the United States of America. Russia would have a huge amount of trouble winning those kinds of races with the United States of Armenia, much less with the most vibrant and progressive industrial society on the planet. It’s a daunting prospect, to say the least. Whereas, although you’re supposed to feed your soldiers, if you don’t really want to you don’t actually have to. The Soviet Union sure didn’t, for instance, and it managed to go on for decades like that. If you don’t improve your nuclear missiles, however, they become obsolete, especially if you can’t overcome inferior technology with sheer numbers.

[...]

what are we to make of Russian “president” Dima Medvedev’s remonstrations to the effect that, if Barack Obama begs nicely enough (that is, gives Russia a Chamberlainian free hand to destroy post-Soviet freedoms), he’d be willing to consider cuts in Russia’s nuclear strike force? Of course, he also wants the U.S. to abandon its quest for superior nuclear technology, so he can have his cake and eat it too.

Medvedev’s comments can have one of several possible meanings.

Maybe he doesn’t mind giving military supremacy to the U.S. in exchange for a free hand in post-Soviet space. Maybe, like Gorbachev before him, he realizes he simply has no choice. Maybe Medvedev hopes Obama will forget all about human rights, Georgia, Ukraine, and every other issue that should matter deeply to the American president if he’s given some nice flowery phrases about Obama’s pet project, nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation. Viewed in this light, Medvedev’s statement that “I hope that with the advent of the new administration, the relationship will take on a new form — more favorable, more trusting,” is ominous.

Another possibility is that he’s simply lying, always a good bet where the Kremlin is concerned. He may simply think he can bewitch Obama, the neophyte, with rhetoric that seems of offer him exactly what he wants, while actually giving him nothing. It may be that the Kremlin thinks can just wait him out, never actually making any cuts, meanwhile reaping the full benefit of being given a free hand to crush domestic dissent, until term limits dispatch Obama’s presidency and Vladimir Putin is back as “president for life.” By that time, Russia may be bankrupt and totally dependent on its nukes.

What’s more likely, though, is that the Kremlin will play Obama for a fool in a much more fundamental way. Reducing nuclear arms even by 50% would still leave Russia with enough ICBMs to destroy the planet, meaning that its ability to terrorize the world would not really be reduced at all. Obama’s proposal is in reality nothing but a “feel good” measure, one that could place the U.S. at a disadvantage if Obama doesn’t support aggressive research to improve the technology and power of the remaining missile strike force, which the Kremlin may be betting he will not do.

There’s one other alternative, that the Kremlin’s response is simply irrational, and based on panic. The Kremlin may be totally shocked by the dramatic implosion of the price of crude oil on world markets, stunned to see its dependence on American demand for oil laid bare for all the world to gape at. The Russian economy has shown no resiliency, no independence whatsoever. And at the same time, the Kremlin may be terrified by the prospect of ballistic missile defense in Eastern Europe, perhaps in a paranoid manner far beyond the bounds of reason. It may simply be agreeing to give the powerful American president whatever he wants in the hope he’ll leave them alone.

I always remember "Catch 22".
Cotton balls with chocolate coating.

How Germans hired American bombers to bomb American base. Business as usual.

Joseph Heller got through all the deception, and maybe we should follow his example.

Try to see through the "moves" assuming they are all part of deception.
So what is the reality of the Great Game?

Are Americans going to hire the Chinese to occupy Russian territory (millions of foot soldiers are needed for this).

At the same time, what is going on in the US of America is not seen as part of the Great Game? Carbon tax, energy efficient housing, pyramidal economy, fractaling bureaucracy...

The war will very likely be the cover up for domestic turmoils.

Military forces are for hire. In war times, war is the business.

Who will quell dissatisfied Americans or Chinese? Foreign mercenaries?

Or send them all to big empty place such as Siberia? To die there, proud and dutiful.