SCI: The new flu, an analytical approach

reply to post by joel1900


To me that lends credence to the idea that the official numbers are being manipulated. It's as if someone near the top picked a percentage and told the WHO and/or CDC to make their numbers appear to be increasing as close to that rate as possible.

Maybe they're trying for a certain timing?

[edit on 5/15/09 by CSquared288]

I felt this thread needed a bump. I haven't seen the numbers jumping like you anticipated, but I'm afraid that's just because of the false numbers we are seeing. I think the CDC's announcement today saying up to 100,000 people may have this flu gives even more credence to your original theory.

While I wish you were wrong, I really think you are dead on! (no pun intended)

Please keep up the good work!

Again thank you all for followng my thread and contributing.

Sorry for not updating lately, but i have been sick (no, I do not belive it is novel flu)

I promise i will get new graphs up first thing tomorrow.

Again thanx for following, and help me to spread it if you think it is important.

Stay tuned for the new graphs and forcasts.

-Zyk

Zykloner, I visit this thread everyday (usually looking at in multiple times per day), thanks for doing this.

These are the most recent numbers I have seen. They contradict themselves within the same article though-

news.bbc.co.uk...

I hope you feel better soon, no pressure. Your projections have been eerily accurate.

Are the reported numbers enough to have an update today?

We've been in a Level 6 pandemic for a while - according to the WHO's own rules.

BUT - if a Level 6 is declared, then restrictions will apply to international travel and trade. If travel and trade are restricted, the impacts on the economy will hugely exacerbate the global financial crisis. ...We'll all be in deep doodoo, starting with access to food.

...I'm honestly not sure what I think about which way to go on it. I keep vacillating.


- sofi

Related: How Could an Event in 1997 Cause a Pandemic in 2009? What Happened?



[edit on 18-5-2009 by soficrow]

Today CDC has given up to date information, first since 15th of may.

Then it should be possible to make new updates, but i think i will ignore some of the numbers during the weekend due to the fact that CDC havent given any new updates from 15th to 18th of may.

I am at work ATM but will look on the graphs when i get home. (about 16:00 GMT)

Thanx for following, it makes my work worthwhile.

Stay tuned
-Zyk

Daily bump for this thread, thanks again for your modeling.

reply to post by winotka


Your article is dated 16 May 2009 (4 days ago), and says the WHO reported 8,453 cases of the virus in 39 countries, a rise of nearly 1,000 in 24 hours.

Some 39 countries have reported 8,453 cases of the virus, a rise of nearly 1,000 in 24 hours.

At least 72 people have died of the virus, the World Health Organization says.

Swine flu hits India and Turkey URL

In the meantime, cases confirmed by the World Health Organization jumped by 349 on Monday, 1001 on Tuesday and 413 on Wednesday.

Today's WHO report says 41 countries have officially reported 10,243 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection, including 80 deaths.


A different headline claims "Sick People Hit Hardest" but the article's text contradicts the claim:

"At 27, the swine flu patients were much younger than most patients with seasonal flu who required hospitalization."

"H1N1 swine flu seems to be targeting teens and young adults, unlike the regular flu, which usually strikes hardest at the elderly and the very young."

"...the death rate from the new H1N1 virus is slightly higher than that seen with seasonal flu."

.....Of course, developed nations are only testing people sick enough to be hospitalized, and most developing nations don't have the capacity to test anyone. So the numbers are seriously skewed.

The WHO is boxed. The situation merits a Level 6 Pandemic Alert, but calling it would create economic, political and social havoc. Not to mention lethal food shortages.

So the disinformation continues to flow.

-sofi

sofi-

Yes the numbers continue to yo-yo within the same organizations. It's sounding more and more like the 1918 pandemic. The young man's family in AZ all had it and a sibling is still in the hospital as of last night.

As you have seen i havent made any gaphs yet, because i belive it is way to much disinfo around ATM.

It is quite obvious that the european reports are not correct and i belive this is because of fear of a phase 6 and therefore pressure from ECDC.

Wait and see, as soon as we move to phase 6 the european reports will sky-rocket as they dont have that much to loose from telling the truth anymore.

Then i can start making some decent graphs again, as for now i belive that my last graph is still pretty correct. (including confrmed but not public, mostly in EU area)

When CDC guesstimated 100 000 a few days ago only in the US i dont even want to think about the world-wide numbers.

So as i said earlier, when we get phase 6 i will make new graphs. It is way to much politics and finance in the reported numbers, trying to delay phase 6 as of today.

It seems that we have been quite spot on from the start of this pandemic fellow ATS members, and i do belive this might evolve to the severity of the 1918 flu.

At least we are living in an historic moment.

Stay tuned
-Zyk

reply to post by Zykloner



Thanks Zyk. We will continue to visit and keep the thread alive until some definitive numbers come up. You are right about living in 'historic' times! Hopefully we all get to keep living, lol. I really think this flu will be hard to follow for the next 3-6 months, the news will be sporadic, and the numbers will be skewed. I know in Florida we hardly testing anybody, and many, many people never went to the doctor in the first place.

Thanks for all your efforts! We will stay tuned.

www.reuters.com...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Article and new thread about WHO chief warning this flu is serious and unpredictable and should be closely monitered for mutations over the next few months in the Southern Hemisphere.

Stating 11,000 infections and 86 deaths worldwide so far. I don't know how those numbers compare to the ones we've been using.

Do you have any current calculations? The chart looks very well thought out. Your numbers were higher on the deaths as there are only 11 as of 5-25-2009. When do you think this will level out and taper off. Can you calculate the leveling off period and tapering off period as well?

Although the totals were different than what you stated I really apperciate anyone's effort to try and understand this flu.

Originally posted by dreamseeker
Do you have any current calculations? The chart looks very well thought out. Your numbers were higher on the deaths as there are only 11 as of 5-25-2009. When do you think this will level out and taper off. Can you calculate the leveling off period and tapering off period as well?

Although the totals were different than what you stated I really apperciate anyone's effort to try and understand this flu.

There are 86 deaths on the last article I saw. I will look for the link. I think 11 may be just U.S. deaths.

This probably makes 14 now

www.google.com...

A couple of weeks ago, there were 2 suspected deaths in CA. One was ruled out. I never found an update of the other one.

But you're right, Zyk. The numbers are garbled. I've read of 2 officials that say the cases(not deaths) are about 20X higher than they're testing or confirming.

Yes.

As as said earlier, i belive ECDC are downplaying big- time to delay a phase 6.

-Zyk

Hi

Thank you all for following my thread so closely.

Here it comes at last, another extensive post with graphs, research and analysis of data.
I know i said i wouldnt make any graphs because of the manipulated data released by some countries, but then i figured that i could do it just to prove the data have been manipulated.
I will also try to make graphs that make sense, and explain what i belive to be the upmost reason the graph based on WHO has lost its pace.

Official WHO graph per today:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/1495574d3381.jpg[/atsimg]

Logic would say that as time progressed after my last graph, the data would be more reliable due to the fact that it is over a bigger span of days, and with more people beeing infected.
That would in other words say a trendline r^2 value closer to 1 than the previous graph/trendline.
The graph above show that this is not the case.

WHO reports showed consitency and made sense up to about 16th of may,
and by trendlining the data up to 16th i get a r^2 value of 0,997.
In other words the data are following a pattern whithout much deviation
And my predictions in last graphs where quite accurate up to the 16th.

I therfore believe that the above graph is actually proof that something "fishy" has been going on with the numbers in the official reports.

So what happened around the 16th of may?

Well 18th of may, the 62 World Health Assembly opened.
With leaders from all of the worlds healthcare meeting.
It was also around the 16th that it became official that UK amongst others wanted WHO to change their phase definitions, as they felt a phase 6 would cause more "harm" (read economic implications) than help.

I therefore have made one more graph for you based on the data up to the 16th, and a trendline up to today and one week forward. I belive that this graph shows the numbers that would have been reported, without the pressure to not declare phase 6.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/8f5987d34de2.jpg[/atsimg]

So what can we expect to be the real number counting in those not tested now?
On 20th of may CDC said that 100 000 was a probable number for USA.
The lab confirmed number the 20th was 5469 in USA.
That means that the official sources having insight on the matter multiplated the lab number by 18,28.

If i get the today value from my last graph (roughly 22500) and use their factor, we get
411 409 infected.

Numbers on the deaths i have had an even harder time trying to analyse, as it seem that they have been even more inconsistent then the infected lately. In other words; i dont want to make a graph in wich i belive the data are unreliable.

I dont belive they test properly either, as i know that the criteria for beeing a suspected case in many countries, including Norway is:

A or B + C or D

A- High fever and coughing
B- Pneumonia

C- Have during the last 7 days had close contact with an confirmed infected
D- Have during the last 7 days been to an area with sustained local infection.

That means in norway for example that when one gets infected but not tested, he starts a spread that will not be tracked nor detected.


Hope this was close to what you expected from my new uppdate (quality wise).

Please spread the word about the new update.

Thank you all for your time.

@Bill: Thank you for moving this little project of mine over to ATSnews.



Stay tuned.

-Zyk



[edit on 28-5-2009 by Zykloner]

[edit on 28-5-2009 by Zykloner]

[edit on 28-5-2009 by Zykloner]

Originally posted by Zykloner
I therefore have made one more graph for you based on the data up to the 16th, and a trendline up to today and one week forward. I belive that this graph shows the numbers that would have been reported, without the pressure to not declare phase 6.

I agree.

Thanks for the update, and all your hard work. You are the best z.