Ok 7 days since my first exposure and 24 hours from the second...

I am still here I feel Fine.

Mexico city streets are still deserted...

Flu and vaccines have a sad history! Please view Dr. True Ott at www.H1flu.com. I choose not to take flu shots or flu drugs. A Texas doctor writes that "N-Acetyl Cysteine" will help prevent this flu and shorten its length. (1200 mg. a day for adults, 600 mg. day for kids.) Mothers Health Food Stores here in So. CA sell their brand for about $8.00 (600 mg., 60 capsules) Two days ago I went there to buy some. The clerk said that I was the second person that day to ask for it. Then she said that the first person felt that he had this flu!! Prepare and pray. . .but please do not panic! Blessings!

STOP COUNTING CASES. My friend just got out of the hospital she was almost dead. Tested negative for h1n1 and the regular human flu. She had a variant and the test does not work. If she died she wouldnt even be a statistic on the h1n1 charts. You guys counting numbers need to understand the testing, the test is genetics based flu mutates constantly which means the tests do not work for long. The numbers are USELESS. All you people counting cases and saying this is over hyped call Mexico and ask them why their first patient tested positive for SARS. People not understanding testing is seriously getting on me nerves its like showing a horse dying of dehydration water and the horse wont drink to save its life.

[edit on 3-5-2009 by Memysabu]

Exponential growth is the growth of populations, interest in banks, infections during an epidemic, and so on. It sounds scary. If this keeps up, then at some point, more people will be infected than have ever lived on the earth.

The thing is, it never keeps up. It is said that a single bacterium can double in a half hour. At that rate, this mass of bacteria would quickly outweight the whole world, then all the mass in the Universe. Uncontrolled growth eventually uses all available resources, and then the population collapses for lack of food.

Similarly, in an epidemic or pandemic, at some point, you run out of susceptible people to infect. Everyone is either immune, or has succumbed to the infection. There are no new victims to infect, so the pandemic dies out for the time being.

If you check out the death rate of this virus, it appears that only people in Mexico are dying, and that the mortality rate isn't as high as had been feared. Flu (and many diseases) will spread exponentially, but that doesn't mean it's the end of the world.

Pandemic: : occurring over a wide geographic area and affecting an exceptionally high proportion of the population

Pandemic is a numbers game. Not a death game. Its also:

* Emergence of a disease new to a population.
* Agents infect humans, causing serious illness.
* Agents spread easily and sustainably among humans.


This flu is not over. Its here to stay. It has already jumped backed into the pig population (Canada reported it, most likely in other nations as well).

Its spreads easily, it is novel it is pandemic by the rules of WHO.

Tonight we find out what has gone on to this point and how the experts feel about it as it is now. This can change by Tuesday or by October when we have the opening salvo of the flu season for the northern hemisphere.

The problem is that we have already reached the limits of testing - we can only confirm a finite number of cases, in several states in the USA they are admitting that they are not even taking samples from suspected cases to test since the testers are back logged.

According to the BBC's map we have 898 confirmed cases and 20 confirmed deaths. That is just confirmed, for each confirmed we could have one unconfirmed or have 20 unconfirmed (or theoretically more).

If its one to one then we only have 1796. If its 20 then we have 17,960.

What the WHO and CDC and others are trying to do at this time is make a predictive model, they are also trying to weed through the cases of sick people to get a better idea of not just confirmed cases but how many suspected cases.

Since this particular virus appears to have mild symptoms in some patients all the way to fatality (due to complications I assume) then it is more difficult to tell how many people are really sick.

If this was ebola or other hemorrhagic virus we would have a clear symptom list and a much better idea of how many cases are really out there. If people are bleeding for no injury, then they have it an obvious symptom, readily diagnosed via symptoms without a test. Since this is a flu and appears to not be deadly currently or have well defined symptoms that are easy to separate it from other flus, testing is the only sure fire way to know how this one is acting.

Since deaths are seemingly rare, being part of only the opening cases (the virus most likely mutated to a safer form earlier on). To call this a deadly pandemic or one worthy of heroic measures is unnecessary, potentially counter productive.

Why its taken this long to call a level 6 is because too many people out there think Pandemic means high death rate. That means a full pandemic in their minds is a panic situation.

Government has to be careful to not scream wolf. Recall the Post Katrina worry to call all incoming hurricanes as potentially a cat 5 and to evacuate everyone? The reason being is because if the hurricane does little damage people will be less likely to evac when the big one really comes.

Same applies with disease - to over react now may result in under reaction in a deadly pandemic situation later down the road.

The big five Mexican drug cartels have killed more people than this in a week. Is gang-related violence getting 24/7 media coverage, garnering the attention of everyone in the world, and provoking a worldwide response? Hardly. Obviously gangs don't follow the same propagation patterns as viruses, but I will never, never get over how easy indeed it is to whip the populace into a panic, or worse yet, how the media and governments cherry-pick which issues to beat like a dead horse/hammer into our skulls while almost completely ignoring others of similar or greater magnitude. A few influential groups - media moguls, government policy-makers, business magnates - latch onto one story and suddenly everything else temporarily (or permanently) vanishes from the collective consciousness. Be prepared, not deluded, brainwashed, zombified, and panicked.

Hey what happened to the bet guys i told this now over no more flu

If the "most active" dates of 4/23-4/28 in Mexico are true, then that would also lend itself to the idea of 2 days pre-symptom, plus 2-3 days of infecting others with symptoms before being either bedridden or hospitalized.

Throw in a 9-15 day incubation period, and that would mean that we're still a few days shy of seeing another wave.

Originally posted by 4Yahshua
prevent this flu and shorten its length. (1200 mg. a day for adults, 600 mg. day for kids.) Mothers Health Food Stores here in So. CA sell their brand for about $8.00 (600 mg., 60

Geez, thanks for telling me, I had a bottle right here, I did not know that it helped with Virus's. I got it for another purpose.

Originally posted by Memysabu
STOP COUNTING CASES. My friend just got out of the hospital she was almost dead. Tested negative for h1n1 and the regular human flu. She had a variant and the test does not work. If she died she wouldnt even be a statistic on the h1n1 charts. You guys counting numbers need to understand the testing, the test is genetics based flu mutates constantly which means the tests do not work for long. The numbers are USELESS. All you people counting cases and saying this is over hyped call Mexico and ask them why their first patient tested positive for SARS. People not understanding testing is seriously getting on me nerves its like showing a horse dying of dehydration water and the horse wont drink to save its life.

[edit on 3-5-2009 by Memysabu]

People who die of this flu will be dying of SARS or SARS related symptoms.

The case numbers are just numbers in a bucket. Just because you dipped your net in the water and came up with a few minnows doesn't mean that you found all the minnows in the lake. The numbers are just indicative of where it is, and where it is going, potential saturation in an area, and how fast it is moving.

Well it appears that after recent developments I need to revise my sig down from 'Swine Flu deaths 1 or 2 per day' to 'less than 1 per day'

Regarding natural remedies: anyone who finds themselves in the 'thick of it' without access to fancy health food stores and MLM type herbal preperations, then just grab a handful of garlic and eat it raw. 6 cloves a day will clear your body of just about ANY virus, bacteria or fungus that isn't good for you, whilst at the same time PRESERVING your friendly intestinal flora - something the medical drugs are not able to do.

Garlic lasts for a while, and you can juice it and add olive oil or vinegar to preseve it longer, so next visit to the supermarket for those emergency ration canned veggies and spam, get yourself a few pounds of garlic.

Originally posted by EtSolveMundi
The big five Mexican drug cartels have killed more people than this in a week. Is gang-related violence getting 24/7 media coverage, garnering the attention of everyone in the world, and provoking a worldwide response? Hardly. Obviously gangs don't follow the same propagation patterns as viruses, but I will never, never get over how easy indeed it is to whip the populace into a panic, or worse yet, how the media and governments cherry-pick which issues to beat like a dead horse/hammer into our skulls while almost completely ignoring others of similar or greater magnitude. A few influential groups - media moguls, government policy-makers, business magnates - latch onto one story and suddenly everything else temporarily (or permanently) vanishes from the collective consciousness. Be prepared, not deluded, brainwashed, zombified, and panicked.

Life goes on. People are interested because it may effect their daily lives, and they may be able to do something about that if they know.

Gangs in Mexico? The regular person has little ability to do anything about that. The ability we do have is limited by things like the fact that it is an internal matter.

So, deluded? Zombified? No. Just realistic. Why do you care about what is happening in gangland Mexico - what does THAT information do for you?