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Peer Reviewed Scientific Research That Refutes Anbthropogenic Global Warming and More.

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posted on Apr, 30 2009 @ 06:29 AM
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I decided to post a compendium of peer-reviewed scientific research, at the request of a member, which refutes the notion of Anthropogenic Global Warming, or, and gives evidence that there are other natural factors causing the ongoing Climate Change.

People like Melatonin, who are proponents of the AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming) hoax, claim that GCMs take in consideration all natural factors, when this is not true in the least, and I will post evidence to corroborate my statement instead of just making claims, and laugh it out.



Orographic cloud in a GCM: the missing cirrus
Journal Climate Dynamics
Publisher Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
ISSN 0930-7575 (Print) 1432-0894 (Online)
Issue Volume 24, Numbers 7-8 / June, 2005
DOI 10.1007/s00382-005-0020-9
Pages 771-780
Subject Collection Earth and Environmental Science
SpringerLink Date Monday, May 02, 2005


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Orographic cloud in a GCM: the missing cirrus
S. M. Dean1 , B. N. Lawrence2, R. G. Grainger1 and D. N. Heuff3

(1) Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Clarendon Laboratory, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK
(2) British Atmospheric Data Centre, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Oxfordshire, UK
(3) Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand

Received: 13 September 2004 Accepted: 25 February 2005 Published online: 27 April 2005

Abstract Observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatalogy Project (ISCCP) are used to demonstrate that the 19-level HadAM3 version of the United Kingdom Met Office Unified Model does not simulate sufficient high cloud over land. By using low-altitude winds, from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Re-Analysis from 1979 to 1994 (ERA-15) to predict the areas of maximum likelihood of orographic wave generation, it is shown that much of the deficiency is likely to be due to the lack of a representation of the orographic cirrus generated by sub-grid scale orography. It is probable that this is a problem in most GCMs.

www.springerlink.com...


Another of the many flaws of GCMs..



The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville.

Instead of creating more clouds, individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds, says Dr. Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist in UAHuntsville's Earth System Science Center.

That was not what he expected to find.

"All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds, which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases," he said. "That amplification is a positive feedback. What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback. As the tropical atmosphere warms, cirrus clouds decrease. That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space."

The results of this research were published today in the American Geophysical Union's "Geophysical Research Letters" on-line edition. The paper was co-authored by UAHuntsville's Dr. John R. Christy and Dr. W. Danny Braswell, and Dr. Justin Hnilo of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA.

www.uah.edu...


There is a lot more evidence that GCMs are flawed, and their models should not be seen as any "prediction" simply because they are flawed, don't take in consideration many natural factors, and as any computer program will do, if you "assume" a certain value for CO2, and tell the computer program that with more CO2 temperatures will increase more, that is exactly what the model will do, and more so, if you do not input all natural factors that affect the climate on Earth.

Here is another example of why GCMs are unreliable.



Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and A. Christofides, On the credibility of climate predictions, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (4), 671–684, 2008.

[doc_id=864]

[English]

Geographically distributed predictions of future climate, obtained through climate models, are widely used in hydrology and many other disciplines, typically without assessing their reliability. Here we compare the output of various models to temperature and precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100 years) records from around the globe. The results show that models perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported.

www.itia.ntua.gr...

Like the above, there are several other such "peer-reviewed research' which tells us that General Circulation Models/computer models that try to predict Climate Change, are flawed at the least, if not rigged to shove down everyone's throat the AGW hoax.

[Mod edit to correct typo in title - member request]

[edit on 5/2/2009 by yeahright]




posted on Apr, 30 2009 @ 06:46 AM
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There are even models which support the fact that the Sun "can account" for the Climate Changes in the past, and predicts future Climate Changes.



Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2000 November 7; 97(23): 12433–12438.
Published online 2000 October 24. PMCID: PMC18780

Copyright © 2000, The National Academy of Sciences
Geophysics
Geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change
Charles A. Perry* and Kenneth J. Hsu†
*U.S. Geological Survey, Lawrence, KS 66049; and †Tarim Associates, Frohburgstrasse 96, Zurich, Switzerland 8006
Contributed by Kenneth J. Hsu
Accepted September 5, 2000.


Although the processes of climate change are not completely understood, an important causal candidate is variation in total solar output. Reported cycles in various climate-proxy data show a tendency to emulate a fundamental harmonic sequence of a basic solar-cycle length (11 years) multiplied by 2N (where N equals a positive or negative integer). A simple additive model for total solar-output variations was developed by superimposing a progression of fundamental harmonic cycles with slightly increasing amplitudes. The timeline of the model was calibrated to the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary at 9,000 years before present. The calibrated model was compared with geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence of warm or cold climates during the Holocene. The evidence of periods of several centuries of cooler climates worldwide called “little ice ages,” similar to the period anno Domini (A.D.) 1280–1860 and reoccurring approximately every 1,300 years, corresponds well with fluctuations in modeled solar output. A more detailed examination of the climate sensitive history of the last 1,000 years further supports the model. Extrapolation of the model into the future suggests a gradual cooling during the next few centuries with intermittent minor warmups and a return to near little-ice-age conditions within the next 500 years. This cool period then may be followed approximately 1,500 years from now by a return to altithermal conditions similar to the previous Holocene Maximum.

www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov...


We are even being told that because glaciers are melting, at presumably an alarming rate, even though we know for a fact that this is neither exceptional, nor unprecedented, that it is all because of anthropogenic CO2. In other words, mankind is at fault. Yet evidence of the contrary can be found all around the world.


Hormes, A., Beer, J. and Schlüchter, C., 2006. A geochronological approach to understanding the role of solar activity on Holocene glacier length variability in the Swiss Alps. Geogr. Ann., 88 A (4): 281–294.


Abstract — We present a radiocarbon data set of 71 samples of wood and peat material that melted out or sheared out from underneath eight present day mid-latitude glaciers in the Central Swiss Alps. Results indicated that in the past several glaciers have been repeatedly less extensive than they were in the 1990s. The periods when glaciers had a smaller volume and shorter length persisted between 320 and 2500 years. This data set provides greater insight into glacier variability than previously possible, especially for the early and middle Holocene. The radiocarbon-dated periods defined with less extensive glaciers coincide with periods of reduced radioproduction, pointing to a connection between solar activity and glacier melting processes. Measured long-term series of glacier length variations show significant correlation with the total solar irradiance. Incoming solar irradiance and changing albedo can account for a direct forcing of the glacier mass balances. Long-term investigations of atmospheric processes that are in interaction with changing solar activity are needed in order to understand the feedback mechanisms with glacier mass balances.



The Role of Solar Activity on Holocene Glacier Length Variability in the swiss Alps

We know for a fact that glaciers have advanced, and retreated/melted several times throughout the history of Earth, and it will continue happening without any help from mankind.



PLEISTOCENE AND HOLOCENE GLACIER ADVANCES IN CENTRAL ASIA AND
NEPAL AS ASSESSED BY IN SITU COSMOGENIC 10Be EXPOSURE AGES OF
MORAINE BOULDERS
U. Abramowski, B. Glaser, W. Zech (Univ. Bayreuth); S. Ivy-Ochs (ETHZ); P.W. Kubik (PSI)
In situ cosmogenic 10Be concentrations in samples from lateral and frontal moraine boulders from the Turkestan
Range and the Alay Range (Kyrgystan), and the Gorkha Himal (Nepal) yield exposure ages corresponding to glacier
advances ~3000, ~11,000, ~20,000, ~60,000 and >60,000 y BP. Our results corroborate the hypothesis, that, at
least in the Alay Range, the maximum glacier advance was during the late Pleistocene (OIS-4).

www.ipp.phys.ethz.ch...



Late Holocene, high-resolution glacial chronologies and climate, Kenai Mountains, Alaska
GREGORY C. WILES1 and PARKER E. CALKIN1
1 Department of Geology, University at Buffalo, 415 Fronczak Hall, Amherst, New York 14260

Recent retreat of outlet glaciers from the Harding and Grewingk-Yalik Icefields has revealed a vast array of deposits on the eastern and western flanks of the Kenai Mountains that records multiple glacier advances into coastal forests during late Holocene time. Treering dating, together with radiocarbon and lichenometric analyses, allows for the reconstruction of these glacial fluctuations to decadal precision over the past two thousand years.

The records of fluctuations are derived from 16 land-terminating and seven tidewater glaciers in three fjord systems, as well as two cirque glaciers. Three major intervals of Holocene glacier expansions are evident; they occurred about 3600 yr B.P., 600 A.D., and during the Little Ice Age, from 1300 to 1850 A.D. The earliest expansion beyond present ice margins is known only from the McCarty tidewater glacier. The 600 A.D. event involved the simultaneous advance of land-terminating and tidewater glaciers. During the Little Ice Age, however, tidewater glaciers were advancing several centuries prior to their land-terminating neighbors. Those land-terminating glaciers on the western mountain flank retreated from their Little Ice Age maxima as much as two centuries before those on the eastern mountain flank.

Land-terminating tongues on the eastern, more maritime, mountain flank have shown more sensitivity to variations in winter precipitation during the Little Ice Age and within recent decades than the more continental glaciers on the western flank that are affected more by summer temperatures. The glacial and climatic records suggest that advances of the ice tongues from about 1420 to 1460 A.D., between 1640 and 1670 A.D., at about 1750 A.D., and from 1880 to 1910 A.D. reflected times of increased winter precipitation. Advances between 1440 to 1460 A.D., from 1650 to 1710 A.D., and from 1830 to 1860 A.D. followed intervals of lower summer temperatures.

bulletin.geoscienceworld.org...



[edit on 30-4-2009 by ElectricUniverse]



posted on Apr, 30 2009 @ 06:55 AM
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Palaeoecological constraints on late Glacial and Holocene ice retreat in the Southern Andes (53°S)





References and further reading may be available for this article. To view references and further reading you must purchase this article.


Rolf Kiliana, , , Christoph Schneiderb, Johannes Kochc, Martinus Fesq-Martina, Harald Biesterd, Gino Casassae, Marcelo Arévalof, Gert Wendtg, Oscar Baezaa and Jan Behrmannh

aLehrstuhl für Geologie, Fachbereich VI, Geowissenschaften, Universität Trier, D-54286 Trier, Germany

bDepartment of Geography, RWTH Aachen University, D-52056 Aachen, Germany

cDepartment of Earth Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, B.C., Canada V5A 1S6

dInstitut für Umweltgeochemie, Universität Heidelberg, INF 236, D-69120 Heidelberg, Germany

eCentro de Estudios Cientificos, Valdivia, Chile

fDepartamento Antarctico, Universidad Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile

gInstitut für Nachrichtentechnik und Informationselektronik, Universität Rostock, Richard-Wagner-Str. 31, 18119 Rostock, Germany

hMarine Geodynamics, IFM-GEOMAR, Wischhofstr. 1-3, 24148 Kiel, Germany


Available online 10 January 2007.

Abstract
Late Glacial to Holocene ice retreat was investigated along a 120 km long fjord system, reaching from Gran Campo Nevado (GCN) to Seno Skyring in the southernmost Andes (53°S). The aim was to improve the knowledge on regional and global control on glacier recession with special emphasis on latitudinal shifting of the westerlies. The timing of ice retreat was derived from peat and sediment cores, using mineralogical and chemical characteristics, and pollen as proxies. Stratigraphy was based on 14C-AMS ages and tephrochronology. The ice retreat of the Seno Skyring Glacier lobe is marked by an ice rafted debris layer which was formed around 18,300 to 17,500 cal. yr B.P. Subsequently, fast glacier retreat occurred until around 15,000 to 14,000 cal. yr B.P. during which around 84% of Skyring Glacier were lost. This fast recession was probably also triggered by an increase of the Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) from 200 to 300 m. Subsequently, the ice surface was lowered below the ELA in an area that previously made up more than 50% of the accumulation area. Much slower retreat and glacier fluctuations of limited extent in the fjord channel system northeast of GCN occurred between around 14,000 to 11,000 cal. yr B.P. during both the Antarctic Cold Reversal and the Younger Dryas. This slow down of retreat indicates a decline in the general warming trend and/or increased precipitation, due to a southward migration of the westerlies. After around 11,000 cal. yr B.P. pollen distribution shows evolved Magellanic Rainforest and similar climate as at present, which lasted throughout most of the Holocene. Only Late Neoglacial moraine systems were formed in the period 1220–1460 AD, and subsequently in the 1620s AD, and between 1870 and 1910 AD. The results indicate that the Gran Campo Nevado ice cap has reacted more sensitive and partly distinct to climate change, compared to the Patagonian Ice Field.

www.sciencedirect.com



The Holocene, Vol. 16, No. 5, 697-704 (2006)
DOI: 10.1191/0959683606hl964rp


Multicentury glacier fluctuations in the Swiss Alps during the Holocene
Ulrich E. Joerin
Institute of Geological Sciences, University of Bern, Baltzerstrasse 1, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland, ujoerin@geo.unibe.ch

Thomas F. Stocker

Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland

Christian Schlüchter

Institute of Geological Sciences, University of Bern, Baltzerstrasse 1, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland

Subfossil remains of wood and peat from six Swiss glaciers found in proglacial fluvial sediments indicate that glaciers were smaller than the 1985 reference level and climatic conditions allowed vegetation growth in now glaciated basins. An extended data set of Swiss glacier recessions consisting of 143 radiocarbon dates is presented to improve the chronology of glacier fluctuations. A comparison with other archives and dated glacier advances suggests 12 major recession periods occurring at 9850- 9600, 9300-8650, 8550-8050, 7700-7550, 7450-6550, 6150-5950, 5700-5500, 5200-4400, 4300-3400, 2800-2700, 2150-1850, 1400-1200 cal. yr BP. It is proposed that major glacier fluctuations occurred on a multicentennial scale with a changing pattern during the course of the Holocene. After the Younger Dryas, glaciers receded to a smaller extent and prolonged recessions occurred repeatedly, culminating around 7 cal. kyr BP. After a transition around 6 cal. kyr BP weak fluctuations around the present level dominated. After 3.6 cal. kyr BP less frequent recessions interrupted the trend to advanced glaciers peaking with the prominent ‘Little Ice Age’. This trend is in line with a continuous decrease of summer insolation during the Holocene.

hol.sagepub.com...

The climate on Earth is never in balance, it is always changing, and sometimes the changes will be , in a manner of speaking moderate, while at other times the changes will be dramatic. All of this without the help of mankind.

I cannot excerpt directly from the following link because of copyright infringement, but it is about the Sargasso Sea Temperature for the last 3,000 years, and is one of the dozens, and dozens of scientific evidence that points to the fact that the Roman Warm, and the Medieval Warm Periods were much warmer than the present.

Here is the link.
www2.tu-berlin.de...

BTW, the graph only represents data until the late 1990s, but it still gives a visualisation of the truth about Climate Change during the last 3,000 years, and the fact that the 20th century warming was neither exceptional, nor the highest.

[edit on 30-4-2009 by ElectricUniverse]



posted on Apr, 30 2009 @ 07:05 AM
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Despite claims of the contrary by the AGW followers, we have evidence that the Roman Warm, and the Medieval Warm Periods were global events in nature.



Late Holocene climatic changes in Tierra del Fuego based on multiproxy analyses of peat deposits



References and further reading may be available for this article. To view references and further reading you must purchase this article.


Dmitri Mauquoy, a, , Maarten Blaauwb, Bas van Geelb, Ana Borromeic, Mirta Quattrocchioc, Frank M. Chambersd and Göran Possnerte

aPalaeobiology Program, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, SE-752 36 Uppsala, Sweden

bInstitute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Kruislaan 318, 1098 SM Amsterdam, The Netherlands

cDepartamento de Geologı́a, Universidad Nacional del Sur, San Juan 670 (8000), Bahı́a Blanca, Argentina

dCentre for Environmental Change and Quaternary Research, GEMRU, University of Gloucestershire, Cheltenham GL50 4AZ, UK

eÅngström Laboratory, Division of Ion Physics, S-75121 Uppsala, Sweden


Received 11 February 2003. Available online 31 January 2004.

Abstract
A ca. 1400-yr record from a raised bog in Isla Grande, Tierra del Fuego, Argentina, registers climate fluctuations, including a Medieval Warm Period, although evidence for the ‘Little Ice Age’ is less clear. Changes in temperature and/or precipitation were inferred from plant macrofossils, pollen, fungal spores, testate amebae, and peat humification. The chronology was established using a 14C wiggle-matching technique that provides improved age control for at least part of the record compared to other sites. These new data are presented and compared with other lines of evidence from the Southern and Northern Hemispheres. A period of low local water tables occurred in the bog between A.D. 960–1020, which may correspond to the Medieval Warm Period date range of A.D. 950–1045 generated from Northern Hemisphere tree-ring data. A period of cooler and/or wetter conditions was detected between ca. A.D. 1030 and 1100 and a later period of cooler/wetter conditions estimated at ca. cal A.D. 1800–1930, which may correspond to a cooling episode inferred from Law Dome, Antarctica.

www.sciencedirect.com

Here is a list to several peer reviewed research from China which also shows the Roman Warm, the Medieval Warm, and the LIA Periods occurred in Asia too as well as the rest of the world.
ff.org...



posted on Apr, 30 2009 @ 07:19 AM
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Here is another "peer-reviewed research work" in which a GCM was used yet the Solar activity can account for the changes in temperature being caused by the Sun's activity. This is more proof that GCMs can corroborate both sides of the discussion, and proves GCMs are not reliable since they do corroborate two completely different theories.(AGW and Natural Climate Change)

Whatever you input into the models (GCMs), that's exactly what they will tell you.



The Influence of Total Solar Irradiance on Climate
Journal Space Science Reviews
Publisher Springer Netherlands
ISSN 0038-6308 (Print) 1572-9672 (Online)
Issue Volume 94, Numbers 1-2 / November, 2000
DOI 10.1023/A:1026719322987
Pages 185-198
Subject Collection Physics and Astronomy
SpringerLink Date Tuesday, October 26, 2004
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The Influence of Total Solar Irradiance on Climate
U. Cubasch1 and R. Voss1

(1) Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany


Abstract To estimate the effect of the solar variability on the climate, two estimates of the solar intensity variations during the last three centuries have been used as forcing in numerical simulations. The model employed to carry out the experiments was the same coupled global ocean-atmosphere model used in a number of studies to assess the effect of the anthropogenic greenhouse gases on climate. The near surface temperature and the tropospheric temperature distribution shows a clear response to the variability of the solar input. Even the thermohaline circulation reacts on the large amplitudes in the forcing. In the stratosphere, the response pattern is similar as in the observations, however, the 11-year cycle found in the forcing data does not excite an appreciable response. This might be due to the missing parameterisation of the increase in the UV-radiation at the solar cycle maximum and the connected increase of the stratospheric ozone concentration.

www.springerlink.com...



posted on Apr, 30 2009 @ 07:19 AM
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Here is another "peer-reviewed research work" in which a GCM was used yet the Solar activity can account for the changes in temperature being caused by the Sun's activity. This is more proof that GCMs can corroborate both sides of the discussion, and proves GCMs are not reliable since they do corroborate two completely different theories.(AGW and Natural Climate Change)

Whatever you input into the models (GCMs), that's exactly what they will tell you.



The Influence of Total Solar Irradiance on Climate
Journal Space Science Reviews
Publisher Springer Netherlands
ISSN 0038-6308 (Print) 1572-9672 (Online)
Issue Volume 94, Numbers 1-2 / November, 2000
DOI 10.1023/A:1026719322987
Pages 185-198
Subject Collection Physics and Astronomy
SpringerLink Date Tuesday, October 26, 2004
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The Influence of Total Solar Irradiance on Climate
U. Cubasch1 and R. Voss1

(1) Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany


Abstract To estimate the effect of the solar variability on the climate, two estimates of the solar intensity variations during the last three centuries have been used as forcing in numerical simulations. The model employed to carry out the experiments was the same coupled global ocean-atmosphere model used in a number of studies to assess the effect of the anthropogenic greenhouse gases on climate. The near surface temperature and the tropospheric temperature distribution shows a clear response to the variability of the solar input. Even the thermohaline circulation reacts on the large amplitudes in the forcing. In the stratosphere, the response pattern is similar as in the observations, however, the 11-year cycle found in the forcing data does not excite an appreciable response. This might be due to the missing parameterisation of the increase in the UV-radiation at the solar cycle maximum and the connected increase of the stratospheric ozone concentration.

www.springerlink.com...



posted on Apr, 30 2009 @ 07:22 AM
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Here is another research work that points to the fact that 20th century warming is not exceptional, despite the AGW proponents claiming the contrary.




On-line Publication Documentation System for Stockholm University
Full DescriptionUpdate record

Publication type: Article in journal (Reviewed scientific)
Author: Grudd, H (Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology)
Title: Torneträsk tree-ring width and density ad 500–2004: a test of climatic sensitivity and a new 1500-year reconstruction of north Fennoscandian summers
In: Climate Dynamics
Publisher: Springer, Berlin / Heidelberg
Volume: 31
Pages: 843-857
Year: 2008
Available: 2009-01-30
ISSN: 1432-0894
Department: Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology
Language: English [en]
Subject: Physical geography, Climatology
Abstract: This paper presents updated tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum density (MXD) from Torneträsk in northern Sweden, now covering the period ad 500–2004. By including data from relatively young trees for the most recent period, a previously noted decline in recent MXD is eliminated. Non-climatological growth trends in the data are removed using Regional Curve Standardization (RCS), thus producing TRW and MXD chronologies with preserved low-frequency variability. The chronologies are calibrated using local and regional instrumental climate records. A bootstrapped response function analysis using regional climate data shows that tree growth is forced by April–August temperatures and that the regression weights for MXD are much stronger than for TRW. The robustness of the reconstruction equation is verified by independent temperature data and shows that 63–64% of the instrumental inter-annual variation is captured by the tree-ring data. This is a significant improvement compared to previously published reconstructions based on tree-ring data from Torneträsk. A divergence phenomenon around ad 1800, expressed as an increase in TRW that is not paralleled by temperature and MXD, is most likely an effect of major changes in the density of the pine population at this northern tree-line site. The bias introduced by this TRW phenomenon is assessed by producing a summer temperature reconstruction based on MXD exclusively. The new data show generally higher temperature estimates than previous reconstructions based on Torneträsk tree-ring data. The late-twentieth century, however, is not exceptionally warm in the new record: On decadal-to-centennial timescales, periods around ad 750, 1000, 1400, and 1750 were equally warm, or warmer. The 200-year long warm period centered on ad 1000 was significantly warmer than the late-twentieth century (p < 0.05) and is supported by other local and regional paleoclimate data. The new tree-ring evidence from Torneträsk suggests that this “Medieval Warm Period” in northern Fennoscandia was much warmer than previously recognized.

www.diva-portal.org...



posted on Apr, 30 2009 @ 07:35 AM
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Evidence of the Medieval Warming Period occurring in Egypt which caused famines, and economic disasters unmatched in over the last 2,000 years.



doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2007.06.001


Copyright © 2007 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA All rights reserved.
Extreme Nile floods and famines in Medieval Egypt (AD 930–1500) and their climatic implications





References and further reading may be available for this article. To view references and further reading you must purchase this article.


Fekri A. Hassana,

aInstitute of Archaeology, University College London, 31-34 Gordon Square, WC1H 0PY, London, UK


Available online 7 June 2007.

Abstract
Nile gauge records of variations in Nile floods from the 9th century to the 15th century AD reveal pronounced episodes of low Nile and high Nile flood discharge. Historical data reveal that this period was also characterized by the worst known famines on record. Exploratory comparisons of variations in Nile flood discharge with high-resolution data on sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic climate from three case studies suggest that rainfall at the source of the Nile was influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation. However, there are apparently flip-flop reversals from periods when variations in Nile flood discharge are positively related to North Atlantic warming to periods where the opposite takes place. The key transitions occur atAD 900, 1010, 1070, 1180, 1350 and 1400. The putative flip-flop junctures, which require further confirmation, appear to be quite rapid and some seem to have had dramatic effects on Nile flood discharge, especially if they recurred at short intervals, characteristic of the period from the 9th to the 14th century, coincident with the so-called Medieval Warm Period. The transition from one state to the other was characterized by incidents of low, high or a succession of both low and high extreme floods. The cluster of extreme floods was detrimental causing famines and economic disasters that are unmatched over the last 2000 years.

www.sciencedirect.com



P. D. Tyson, W. Karlén, K. Holmgren and G. A. Heiss (in press) The Little Ice Age and Medieval Warming in South Africa. South African Journal of Science.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



The Little Ice Age and Medieval Warming in South Africa


P. D. Tyson1, W. Karlén2, K. Holmgren2 and G. A. Heiss3.

1Climatology Research Group, University of the Witwatersrand
2Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University
3Geomar, Wischhofstr. 1-3, 24148 Kiel, Germany; present address: German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), P.O. Box 120161, 27515 Bremerhaven, Germany, E-mail: g.heiss@gmx.de



Abstract

The Little Ice Age, from around 1300 to 1800, and medieval warming, from before 1000 to around 1300 in South Africa, are shown to be distinctive features of the regional climate of the last millennium. The proxy climate record has been constituted from oxygen and carbon isotope and colour density data obtained from a well-dated stalagmite derived from Cold Air Cave in the Makapansgat Valley.
The climate of the interior of South Africa was around 1oC cooler in the Little Ice Age and may have been over 3°C higher than at present during the extremes of the medieval warm period. It was variable throughout the millennium, but considerably more so during the warming of the eleventh to thirteenth centuries. Extreme events in the record show distinct teleconnections with similar events in other parts of the world, in both the northern and southern hemispheres. The lowest temperature events recorded during the Little Ice Age in South Africa are shown to be coeval with the Maunder and Sporer Minima in solar irradiance. The medieval warming is shown to have been coincided with the cosmogenic 10Be and 14C isotopic maxima recorded in tree rings elsewhere in the world during the Medieval Maximum in solar radiation.

www-user.uni-bremen.de...



posted on Apr, 30 2009 @ 07:38 AM
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No matter how many times the AGW proponents claim the contrary, there is ample evidence that refutes every one of their claims.



Evidence for the existence of the medieval warm period in China
Journal Climatic Change
Publisher Springer Netherlands
ISSN 0165-0009 (Print) 1573-1480 (Online)
Issue Volume 26, Numbers 2-3 / March, 1994
DOI 10.1007/BF01092419
Pages 289-297
Subject Collection Earth and Environmental Science
SpringerLink Date Monday, February 07, 2005
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Evidence for the existence of the medieval warm period in China
De'Er Zhang1

(1) Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Baishiqiaolu No. 46, 100081 Beijing, China


Abstract The collected documentary records of the cultivation of citrus trees andBoehmeria nivea (a perennial herb) have been used to produce distribution maps of these plants for the eighth, twelfth and thirteenth centuries A.D. The northern boundary of citrus andBoehmeria nivea cultivation in the thirteenth century lay to the north of the modern distribution. During the last 1000 years, the thirteenth-century boundary was the northernmost. This indicates that this was the warmest time in that period. On the basis of knowledge of the climatic conditions required for planting these species, it can be estimated that the annual mean temperature in south Henan Province in the thirteenth century was 0.9–1.0°C higher than at present. A new set of data for the latest snowfall date in Hangzhou from A.D. 1131 to 1264 indicates that this cannot be considered a cold period, as previously believed.

www.springerlink.com...



posted on Apr, 30 2009 @ 07:44 AM
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The Medieval Warm, and LIA in South America.

Despite the fat that evidence from all over the world shows these events were global in nature, the aGW proponents still to this day claim the events were not global, because once they do, they have accepted the fact that their religious AGW beliefs, are nothing more than a hoax.



2003 Seattle Annual Meeting (November 2–5, 2003)
Paper No. 17-13
Presentation Time: 11:15 AM-11:30 AM
THE LAKE MALAWI CLIMATE RECORD: LINKS TO SOUTH AMERICA
BROWN, Erik T. and JOHNSON, Thomas C., Large Lakes Observatory, Univ of Minnesota, Duluth, MN 55812, etbrown@d.umn.edu
We have extracted high resolution records of past climate conditions from varved sediments accumulating near 10o S in the north basin of Lake Malawi, the southernmost of the East African Rift lakes. Here we compare profiles of biogenic silica and Nb:Ti spanning nearly 25,000 years in Malawi with the Cariaco Basin high-resolution record of Haug et al. (2001), which is based primarily on sedimentary profiles of Fe and Ti. During the past 1000 years Nb:Ti and biogenic silica track one another in Malawi sediments, as observed for the Late Glacial (Johnson et al., 2002). These signals have been interpreted as a reflection of the intensity or frequency of north winds over the basin. Such winds carry Nb-rich volcaniclastic sediments into the lake and promote upwelling, favorable to diatom productivity. Johnson et al. (2002) attributed the greater frequency of north winds over the Malawi basin during "cold" episodes such as the Younger Dryas to southward shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Haug et al. (2001) have suggested that southward migration of the ITCZ over South America as such times caused decreased rainfall and delivery of terrigenous clastics rich in Fe and Ti to the Cariaco basin. During the Late Glacial, the trends in the African and South American records are remarkably similar. In addition, they both show evidence for the ITCZ being positioned more to the north during the Medieval Warm Period, more to the south during the Little Ice Age, and subsequently returning to the north. Both records also exhibit greater variability during the LIA, with distinct southerly ITCZ excursions. Twentieth Century climate records indicate that episodes of enhanced north winds over Malawi were dry over the Orinoco basin, suggesting that the mechanism of teleconnection developed from sedimentary evidence for 100 to 10,000 years timescales may also play a role in the modern climate.

2003 Seattle Annual Meeting (November 2–5, 2003)


Session No. 17
Lakes and Holocene Environmental Change: The Use of Multiproxy Lake Records for Paleoclimate Reconstructions I
Washington State Convention and Trade Center: 307/308
8:00 AM-12:00 PM, Sunday, November 2, 2003

Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs, Vol. 35, No. 6, September 2003, p. 62

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
© Copyright 2003 The Geological Society of America (GSA), all rights reserved. Permission is hereby granted to the author(s) of this abstract to reproduce and distribute it freely, for noncommercial purposes. Permission is hereby granted to any individual scientist to download a single copy of this electronic file and reproduce up to 20 paper copies for noncommercial purposes advancing science and education, including classroom use, providing all reproductions include the complete content shown here, including the author information. All other forms of reproduction and/or transmittal are prohibited without written permission from GSA Copyright Permissions.

gsa.confex.com...



posted on Apr, 30 2009 @ 08:50 AM
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Awesome work! Judging by the flags and stars Versus dissenting opinion - I'll wager you will win this debate.

The science was certainly an important aspect in creating skepticism for me, but my distrust of government is what convinced me. Here we have every slim ball, crook in the world trying to cash in on the CO2 scare. New regulations, taxes and controls on the whole world, and who does it profit? I could tell you, but that would be giving it away.

I do have concerns about our environment. I have concerns about real things. Things you don't hear about because the Carbon scam is more important.

I'll never go along with this lie.



posted on Apr, 30 2009 @ 08:57 AM
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Originally posted by ElectricUniverse
I decided to post a compendium of peer-reviewed scientific research, at the request of a member, which refutes the notion of Anthropogenic Global Warming, or, and gives evidence that there are other natural factors causing the ongoing Climate Change.


lol


People like Melatonin, who are proponents of the AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming) hoax, claim that GCMs take in consideration all natural factors


Liar. Show me where I said that?

I know being fisked for your babblings can't be nice, but lying isn't going to help your case.



Orographic cloud in a GCM: the missing cirrus


Yes, you built a strawman on a lie. Well done.



Another of the many flaws of GCMs..



The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville.

Instead of creating more clouds, individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds, says Dr. Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist in UAHuntsville's Earth System Science Center.

That was not what he expected to find.


"All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds, which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases," he said. "That amplification is a positive feedback. What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback. As the tropical atmosphere warms, cirrus clouds decrease. That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space."


Yet the actual paper says:


While the time scales addressed here are
short and not necessarily indicative of climate time scales, it
must be remembered that all moist convective adjustment
occurs on short time scales.


So we have nothing more than six years worth of data which can't really tell us that much about climate trends. But it's no surprise to see Spencer and Christy represent it as something substantial.


There is a lot more evidence that GCMs are flawed, and their models should not be seen as any "prediction" simply because they are flawed, don't take in consideration many natural factors, and as any computer program will do, if you "assume" a certain value for CO2, and tell the computer program that with more CO2 temperatures will increase more, that is exactly what the model will do, and more so, if you do not input all natural factors that affect the climate on Earth.


blah blah. Yet you were happy to use one for your own purposes a while back.

Hypocrite.

Not one person I know of claims that GCMs are perfect. Not one. That is your strawman, and is nothing more than a misrepresentation of me.


Here is another example of why GCMs are unreliable.



Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and A. Christofides, On the credibility of climate predictions, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (4), 671–684, 2008.



So what did Koutsoyiannis et al do? They took a small number of long station records and compared them to co-located grid points in single realisations of a few models and correlate their annual and longer term means. Returning to the question we asked at the top, what hypothesis is being tested here? They are using single realisations of model runs, and so they are not testing the forced component of the response (which can only be determined using ensembles or very long simulations). By correlating at the annual and other short term periods they are effectively comparing the weather in the real world with that in a model. Even without looking at their results, it is obvious that this is not going to match (since weather is uncorrelated in one realisation to another, let alone in the real world). Furthermore, by using only one to four grid boxes for their comparisons, even the longer term (30 year) forced trends are not going to come out of the noise.

linky

Oh right. So it was a crap paper with an obvious answer.


Like the above, there are several other such "peer-reviewed research' which tells us that General Circulation Models/computer models that try to predict Climate Change, are flawed at the least, if not rigged to shove down everyone's throat the AGW hoax.


So, the models you have used are fine, but others potentially rigged.

Your slip is showing. You're muaddib and I claim my $5.

[edit on 30-4-2009 by melatonin]



posted on Apr, 30 2009 @ 09:10 AM
link   

Originally posted by ElectricUniverse
There are even models which support the fact that the Sun "can account" for the Climate Changes in the past, and predicts future Climate Changes.



A more detailed examination of the climate sensitive history of the last 1,000 years further supports the model. Extrapolation of the model into the future suggests a gradual cooling during the next few centuries with intermittent minor warmups and a return to near little-ice-age conditions within the next 500 years. This cool period then may be followed approximately 1,500 years from now by a return to altithermal conditions similar to the previous Holocene Maximum.


Wow, no crap sherlock. Solar variation is related to climate change and extrapolating back into the past shows that.

Whoopee.


We are even being told that because glaciers are melting, at presumably an alarming rate, even though we know for a fact that this is neither exceptional, nor unprecedented, that it is all because of anthropogenic CO2. In other words, mankind is at fault. Yet evidence o
of the contrary can be found all around the world.


I'm sure they have melted in the past. Indeed, making estimates of future sea levels uses such information.

I can see the bait and switch. Yes, glaciers have melted in the past, and it was probably not related to humans releasing billions of tonnes of CO2 every year.

Well done.



Hormes, A., Beer, J. and Schlüchter, C., 2006. A geochronological approach to understanding the role of solar activity on Holocene glacier length variability in the Swiss Alps. Geogr. Ann., 88 A (4): 281–294.


Measured long-term series of glacier length variations show significant correlation with the total solar irradiance. Incoming solar irradiance and changing albedo can account for a direct forcing of the glacier mass balances. Long-term investigations of atmospheric processes that are in interaction with changing solar activity are needed in order to understand the feedback mechanisms with glacier mass balances.

The Role of Solar Activity on Holocene Glacier Length Variability in the swiss Alps

We know for a fact that glaciers have advanced, and retreated/melted several times throughout the history of Earth, and it will continue happening without any help from mankind.


Wow, no crap sherlock. Solar activity in the past shows relationships with glacier melting.

Whoopee.




PLEISTOCENE AND HOLOCENE GLACIER ADVANCES IN CENTRAL ASIA AND
NEPAL AS ASSESSED BY IN SITU COSMOGENIC 10Be EXPOSURE AGES OF
MORAINE BOULDERS
U. Abramowski, B. Glaser, W. Zech (Univ. Bayreuth); S. Ivy-Ochs (ETHZ); P.W. Kubik (PSI)
In situ cosmogenic 10Be concentrations in samples from lateral and frontal moraine boulders from the Turkestan
Range and the Alay Range (Kyrgystan), and the Gorkha Himal (Nepal) yield exposure ages corresponding to glacier
advances ~3000, ~11,000, ~20,000, ~60,000 and >60,000 y BP. Our results corroborate the hypothesis, that, at
least in the Alay Range, the maximum glacier advance was during the late Pleistocene (OIS-4).

www.ipp.phys.ethz.ch...



Late Holocene, high-resolution glacial chronologies and climate, Kenai Mountains, Alaska
GREGORY C. WILES1 and PARKER E. CALKIN1
1 Department of Geology, University at Buffalo, 415 Fronczak Hall, Amherst, New York 14260

Recent retreat of outlet glaciers from the Harding and Grewingk-Yalik Icefields has revealed a vast array of deposits on the eastern and western flanks of the Kenai Mountains that records multiple glacier advances into coastal forests during late Holocene time. Treering dating, together with radiocarbon and lichenometric analyses, allows for the reconstruction of these glacial fluctuations to decadal precision over the past two thousand years.

The records of fluctuations are derived from 16 land-terminating and seven tidewater glaciers in three fjord systems, as well as two cirque glaciers. Three major intervals of Holocene glacier expansions are evident; they occurred about 3600 yr B.P., 600 A.D., and during the Little Ice Age, from 1300 to 1850 A.D. The earliest expansion beyond present ice margins is known only from the McCarty tidewater glacier. The 600 A.D. event involved the simultaneous advance of land-terminating and tidewater glaciers. During the Little Ice Age, however, tidewater glaciers were advancing several centuries prior to their land-terminating neighbors. Those land-terminating glaciers on the western mountain flank retreated from their Little Ice Age maxima as much as two centuries before those on the eastern mountain flank.

Land-terminating tongues on the eastern, more maritime, mountain flank have shown more sensitivity to variations in winter precipitation during the Little Ice Age and within recent decades than the more continental glaciers on the western flank that are affected more by summer temperatures. The glacial and climatic records suggest that advances of the ice tongues from about 1420 to 1460 A.D., between 1640 and 1670 A.D., at about 1750 A.D., and from 1880 to 1910 A.D. reflected times of increased winter precipitation. Advances between 1440 to 1460 A.D., from 1650 to 1710 A.D., and from 1830 to 1860 A.D. followed intervals of lower summer temperatures.

bulletin.geoscienceworld.org...


Yeah, glaciers have retreated and grown historically.

Whoopee.

So, that's it? You show that solar activity can be related to past climate, it is also related to past changes in glaciers, glaciers have changed in the past, they are melting now therefore...

You sound like an inductive turkey.

lol

[edit on 30-4-2009 by melatonin]



posted on Apr, 30 2009 @ 09:36 AM
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Originally posted by ElectricUniverse


Palaeoecological constraints on late Glacial and Holocene ice retreat in the Southern Andes (53°S)


Yes, glaciers have retreated and grown in the past.

This is getting tedious now.






The Holocene, Vol. 16, No. 5, 697-704 (2006)
DOI: 10.1191/0959683606hl964rp


Multicentury glacier fluctuations in the Swiss Alps during the Holocene

hol.sagepub.com...


Yes, as above.


The climate on Earth is never in balance, it is always changing, and sometimes the changes will be , in a manner of speaking moderate, while at other times the changes will be dramatic. All of this without the help of mankind.


Yes, climate has changed considerably in the past - it didn't even need humans!1!eleventyone1.

Gobble gobble.


I cannot excerpt directly from the following link because of copyright infringement, but it is about the Sargasso Sea Temperature for the last 3,000 years, and is one of the dozens, and dozens of scientific evidence that points to the fact that the Roman Warm, and the Medieval Warm Periods were much warmer than the present.


Even if it was, it wouldn't negate anthropogenic climate change. Of course, you already know that there are dozens of large scale reconstructions showing that might well not be the case. Indeed, the claim that current temps are probably warmer than the last 2000 years is well-supported.


BTW, the graph only represents data until the late 1990s, but it still gives a visualisation of the truth about Climate Change during the last 3,000 years, and the fact that the 20th century warming was neither exceptional, nor the highest.


Fact? lol.

Not at all. Indeed, current temps may be the warmest for well over 3,000 years.

[edit on 30-4-2009 by melatonin]



posted on Apr, 30 2009 @ 09:46 AM
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Originally posted by ElectricUniverse
Despite claims of the contrary by the AGW followers, we have evidence that the Roman Warm, and the Medieval Warm Periods were global events in nature.


Perhaps they were. Perhaps they weren't.

None of that 'refutes anbthropogenic global warming'.



Late Holocene climatic changes in Tierra del Fuego based on multiproxy analyses of peat deposits


Yes, a local data set.


Here is a list to several peer reviewed research from China which also shows the Roman Warm, the Medieval Warm, and the LIA Periods occurred in Asia too as well as the rest of the world.
ff.org...


Cool.

And?

Other more extensive data shows that it was probably predominately focused in the northern hemisphere. But it still doesn't mean that much either way. I responded in extensive detail to this issue with you over 2 years ago...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

and I can't be bothered going over it again.



posted on Apr, 30 2009 @ 09:51 AM
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reply to post by melatonin
 


Wow! I guess ElectricU was right.
I don't see any refutation here, only a lot of gainsay and ridicule. Typical fare for the true believers.

The Gore acolytes are so convinced the debate is over, yet they never shut up about their religion. They are worse than Jehovah's witnesses come a-knocking on my door.



posted on Apr, 30 2009 @ 10:19 AM
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Originally posted by Smack
Wow! I guess ElectricU was right.
I don't see any refutation here, only a lot of gainsay and ridicule. Typical fare for the true believers.

The Gore acolytes are so convinced the debate is over, yet they never shut up about their religion. They are worse than Jehovah's witnesses come a-knocking on my door.


lol

Not much to refute apart from the overall claims. It really requires the ability for logic and reason to see through the smoke and mirrors. EUs logical abilities aren't very good.

I'm still working through, but so far EUs argument goes:

1. People, like me, supposedly say GCMs adequately account for every natural variable but, look, they don't and are not perfect.

ANS: Pure strawman. I have never said any such thing, and I know of no-one who does. If he wants to suggest I do, he can try to support it.

2. Solar activity has been related to climate in the past, glaciers have retreated and grown in the past, glacier change can be associated with solar activity in the past. I assume the inductive conclusion would be that because glaciers are changing now, it must be related to solar variation.

ANS: Seriously logically flawed. Indeed, the evidence clearly shows that solar variation cannot fully account for current climate change, and has had little influence over the last few decades. This is a zombie argument that I've been over multiple times, see here.

Funny, though, one day it's volcanic activity causing this and that, and now it's solar activity, lol. Scattergun denialism. Maybe he can bump his old solar system warming thread and develop a triumverate of inane babblings.

3. It might have been warmer at points in the past. And x, y, and z are good examples (e.g., MWP etc).

ANS: So what? Means little either way. The x, y, and z are highly questionable and large scale research suggests otherwise.

4. The MWP and LIA might have been global events.

ANS: So what? Means little either way. Other large scale data suggests otherwise.

But I've seen this all before, it's like groundhog day. This dude has a tendency to produce 2+2=5. And the fact you come in with the 'Gore' cooties suggests you have nothing but wishful-thinking as well, so I wouldn't expect you to see the problems in his arguments.

ABE: and the remaining posts are just the same argument as the latter.

At no point does anything come anywhere close to refuting 'anbthropogenic' global warming. The closest to any real impact is the Spencer & Christy article which would, if climate trend rather than weather (which means it needs to be much more than 6 years worth of data, lol), would have a potential to reduce feedbacks.

Other than that, same old babblings, misrepresentation, and poor logic.

[edit on 30-4-2009 by melatonin]



posted on Apr, 30 2009 @ 10:28 AM
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Wow? Who the hell could be bothered to post all that? Maybe he's getting paid for doing it..? Certainly, no one will read it. I suggest the OP get a job, or a different job



posted on Apr, 30 2009 @ 10:54 AM
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post removed because the user has no concept of manners

Click here for more information.



posted on Apr, 30 2009 @ 02:17 PM
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Originally posted by melatonin

Originally posted by rizla
Wow? Who the hell could be bothered to post all that? Maybe he's getting paid for doing it..? Certainly, no one will read it. I suggest the OP get a job, or a different job


I know their arguments are bad, but if I was trying to protect my $$$$ and ideology, I would sack him pretty damn quick, lol. These people are comparable to creationists. They speak to the LCD. His next trick will be to show that evolution is wrong because monkeys still exist.

Anyway, he's just got sand in his labia from previous fiskings.


keep patting on one another's back, but don't forget that not all people who read this thread will post and to most it will be obvious that using the creationist slur is quite revealing. as for previous fisking, whenever i stooped to use a similar smear i backed it with a couple of directly linked posts. funny advice, huh?

rizla, maybe you should be sacked too because you're essentially posting derogatory one (and a half) liners without substance. bad image. i'd at least base your salary on things like articles linked, post layout and volume. . . it works both ways, doesn't it? of, while i am at it, reading your opponents' posts would be a must. post size in pages really isn't everything, especially when size four font is used. note that oversized font means the OP believes that people won't read longer passages, or even short ones unless they are especially emphasiszed. seems like it was in vain though, because visual acuity really isn't the problem, is it? i wouldn't feel very flattered to be sure, if i considered myself among the targetted audience.

the arguments as far as i can see are taken from various articles and the quotes may or may not be out of context, although they seem pretty clear to me, but then i must be one of the big oil shills, according to some people.


attacking the OP's slightly vitriolic criticism of climate models is really a sideshow and should best be avoided or treated as such, unless you wish to conceal the real issue here, which is that GW or not, if similar or stronger variations occued in the past, there is really no rational reason that a similar development today, no matter the cause, will somehow be more destructive or lead to 'Venusian' temperatures. (a meme whose mere existance, let alone repeated parroting really hurts my belief in humanity)

let me restate, whether GW is real or not, if the records show that warming can be sustained and that f-ex. the Alps and Andes can do without glaciers and even have trees growing there instead, then why on Earth not? sure, some changes are always detrimental somewhere, but might as well be beneficial elsewhere. why is this never adressed, only the

'Must. Stop. Now. At. Any. Cost.'

paradigm is allowed. this is not what rational debate looks like, first we're supposed to prove a negative, then have to embrace the belief that it must be stopped.


PS: i still believe the whole thing will be a non-starter, just going one step further.



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