Global Meltdown is Over. Now is time to make Money.

I'm under the impression that the global meltdown hasn't really 'kicked in'. Sure the rock has been thrown in the pond and we've all read about the splash, it's a case of just waiting for the waves and ripples to hit us now.

Also, I'm not entirely sure that property investments and such are the way to get us out of this kind of mess. I think it was the way property has been dealt with over the last couple of decades that's been partly the thing that got us into this mess in the first place.

I understand that this primarily a 'capitalist' society (or at least capitalist of sorts) and that profit is to be made with anything but, at the same time, housing/shelter is a fundamental human need. Yet, the drive to make money from this particular market has made it increasingly difficult for many people to secure such a basic need.

WOW sounds like these "smart" guys from GD1

1. "We will not have any more crashes in our time."
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927

2. "I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."
- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928

"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928


3. "No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment...and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding."
- Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928

4. "There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929

5. "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929

"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."
- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929

"There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of another comparable decline."
- Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929

"We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices."
- Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929


6. "This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years."
- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

"Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted"
- E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

"Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom."
- R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929


7. "The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin."
- Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929
"Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street."
- The Times of London, November 2, 1929

"The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before."
- Business Week, November 2, 1929

"...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929


8. "... a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall."
- HES, November 10, 1929

"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most."
- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929

"In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect."
- Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929

"Financial storm definitely passed."
- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929


9. "I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress."
- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929
"I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence."
- Herbert Hoover, December 1929

"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year."
- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929


10. "For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930

11. "...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930

12. "There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about."
- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930

13. "The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity."
- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930
"... the outlook continues favorable..."
- HES Mar 29, 1930


14 "... the outlook is favorable..."
- HES Apr 19, 1930

15. "While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us."
- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930
"...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..."
- HES May 17, 1930

"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."
- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930


16. "... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..."
- HES June 28, 1930

17. "... the present depression has about spent its force..."
- HES, Aug 30, 1930

18. "We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression."
- HES Nov 15, 1930

19. "Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible."
- HES Oct 31, 1931

20. "All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933

reply to post by redhatty



WOW...I didn't know there were the same amount of "experts" back then.

I have printed out your post as it does keep all of this in perspective and every time I read about how the crisis is over, I will re-read these quotes.

Well done

reply to post by redhatty

"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928

Awesome post! I am really encouraged by the reminder that those in charge know exactly what is going on, and can predict the future with stunning success. WooHoo!

This one quote alone was enough to make my day! I'll just wander down to my local Pierce Arrow dealer and place an order for their latest dream machine....



Actually, although I have no reason to be "optimistic" about the financial future of the USA as it currently exists,



I certainly expect large parts of the global economy to recover a lot faster and stronger than most people may think possible.

Something, or perhaps I should say someone, is going to start the ball rolling pretty soon now....

Originally posted by SugarCube
Of course, this kind of talk is aimed at the low level consumers to kick start the process - but it still works.

If we had more confidence in our governments and banks this would have a greater effect though. The man on the street knows that he his being lied to but it still has a positive effect. The more that people "believe" that things are getting better, the more likely they are to relax to tend toward the activity of spending.

While that sounds true in theory, it’s not the case right now. People cannot spend what they don’t have, and the people are broke. Most everyone has spent themselves into so much debt over the last 10 years that no one has anything left to stimulate the economy with. Personally, I believe that the final nail in the coffin was Busch allowing the Oil Companies to rape the public since 911. That increased the price of everything else, causing the average American to be drained of their financial resources, and live off credit. Now they have no credit left, the bills are coming due, and stuff is still getting more expensive.

If these companies want to stimulate the economy then they need to realize that for a few years they may have to scrape along at breaking even, or even taking mild losses. They should be able to absorb the hit as many have been making record profits for years now. They need to drop the prices of their goods and services, they need to stop outsourcing to other countries, and they need to increase salaries. After all, whom do they think that it is that buys their services anyway? If we cannot afford their stuff, then are they really helping themselves by cutting back positions and salaries? Ultimately in their greed to make major profits, they have cut their own throats by killing off their customers.

Americans are picked on by foreigners for our consumption of goods, but in reality, our consumption is what drove the world economy for years. Now we cannot afford to consume, because greedy corporations have taken all the money out of our side of the bucket, and if the bucket does not level back out some, it’s going to tip over and take the rest world down with us.

I am reminded of a Verse from Revelations: “A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.” Meaning a day’s wage for necessities (enough to make a loaf of bread), but the convenience items will remain cheap. This is exactly the current situation. Junk like computers, cell phones, & TV’s are getting cheaper, but people are spending their whole salaries to just stay afloat while paying for necessities. If the Big Corps don’t stop their greed and realize this is what is happening, then nothing is going to get better, and I would wager its going to get every bit as bad as Glenn Beck stated on his “War Room” episode. People are just not going to stand for it too much longer, and when it gets to the point where masses of them have nothing left to lose, expect to see the SHTF big time.

I am not a financial expert of any type, but that is my take on the situation.

I agree that the doom and gloomers are overexageratting. This isnt the end of the USA or the world as we know it. I also would love to believe that this is over, but that just isnt the case. Yes, none of their predictions come true and probably never will, however this mess we are in is far from over. One day or even one week of gains means nothing. The market will fall again, still too much bad out there right now. Once we see a bottoming out of job loses and housing starts to rebound we then will be able to see the light at the end of the tunnel, but we are looking at 2010 at the earliest for that. Like your optimism though. If everyone had the same confidence you had we would exit this recession sooner.

reply to post by rattan1


All I can do is LAUGH VERY HARD!!

You go right ahead and put ALL YOUR MONEY in the market now............. I will sit back and watch.

But don't cry when you lose everything you have...... due to the market manipulation that is happening.

When those manipulators who poured their money in the market yesterday.... to sucker you into putting your money in the market.......... then they take theirs out - after they have suckered you........ and the market plummets............. don't think it "just happened" and cry after everything is lost.

Anyone to tell any other person that the meltdown is over......... is playing a manipulation game..........

So I guess these 238 companies that are at high risk for default...... is just not true then..... since the meltdown is over? BIG NAMES on list!!

www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by questioningall


Actually if you get into the market it is highly unlikely you will lose everything. Sure it may go down, but stocks will rebound to higher levels then they are today. Anyone who thinks differently doesnt know anything. As long as you are buying the same stock over a period of time (dollar cost averaging) you are pretty safe. Unless the stock goes bankrupt that is.

reply to post by rattan1


Dude have you checked out the new Capital Gains tax under Obama......why bother???

Originally posted by tide88
reply to post by questioningall

 

Actually if you get into the market it is highly unlikely you will lose everything. Sure it may go down, but stocks will rebound to higher levels then they are today. Anyone who thinks differently doesnt know anything. As long as you are buying the same stock over a period of time (dollar cost averaging) you are pretty safe. Unless the stock goes bankrupt that is.

That there is the problem.
I am still sitting on the sidelines waiting for coach to call my number. The time is soon, but yesterday's rally is not it. Today may carry some of that rally over, but the overall state of the economy and the stock market is still too volatile and weak for me.

I fully intend to invest when the time comes - as long as I still have a job.

Originally posted by tide88
reply to post by questioningall

 

Actually if you get into the market it is highly unlikely you will lose everything. Sure it may go down, but stocks will rebound to higher levels then they are today. Anyone who thinks differently doesnt know anything. As long as you are buying the same stock over a period of time (dollar cost averaging) you are pretty safe. Unless the stock goes bankrupt that is.

If you adjust for inflation; the market is actually cyclical, with 15-20 year periods of growth and stagnation. We were due to see an inflation-adjusted period of decline in the mid-90s, but instead we saw a multi-trillion dollar credit bubble blow it way out of proportion.

www.angelfire.com...
homepage.mac.com...

Adjusting for inflation, you have a long-term average growth rate of 1.64%. Generally speaking, the buy-and-hold strategy is primarily a vehicle for keeping up with inflation, assuming that you don't cash out at the lower end of the business cycle.

So you may not lose everything, but if you get in at the wrong time it may be 30-40 years before you get back to the starting point in terms of real wealth.

[edit on 11-3-2009 by theWCH]

Well officer,
I was exceeding the speed limit while talking on my cell phone, eating a hamburger and balancing my checkbook when I ran the red light because Citigroup told me to get back into the market.

I just decided to do something a little less stupid.

You're completely mistaken, man!
The end of the tunnel is still very far away. And there could be no light in its end...
Remember a quote by a famous economist: "there´s no free lunch".
All the mess cannot just be swept under the carpet.
Be aware that when recovery starts, the USA will have a huge hiperinflation and oil will climb to at least US$200.
Thing will never be the same anymore.

reply to post by rattan1


I also heard citi group is going to stop the unemployment, the foreclosures and make every America Rich!!!!!!.

BTW got and get yourself some stock on citi because they are pennies on the dollar right now, what a bargain!!!.

I would like to formaly invite the OP back to the conversation. Great posts, quotes, and facts here people, thanks.

Star for you marg...I read your posts on the "Market thread" as well.

Ummmm,I don't even know what to say to the OP that hasn't already been mentioned except that it's simply not over by a long shot.

We all know Citigroup would never lie,right?


[edit on 11-3-2009 by irishchic]

reply to post by irishchic


Actually if you have looked at the last news on the Markets thread, is some post that have links to news that are questioning today the good fortune of the Citi yesterday and how it got there.

That means many think is nothing but overinflated propaganda to turn the markets around.

But how volatile the markets are when it can be so easily manipulated by a bit of information "leaked from a memo".

[edit on 11-3-2009 by marg6043]

reply to post by rattan1


LOL

Even during the Great Depression the market retraced multiple times to the 200 DMA.

Our market has not done this since early last year.

We were overdue for a retrace to the 200 DMA -- and just like I suspected if we showed green the worms come out and proclaim everything is OK! After all, Citi posted profit!

Great. What about their losses? I post a pretty big profit with my paycheck too -- until I pay my bills.

CITI is so funny. News swarming around that they need more help, have to sell assets, etc. In less than 24 hours they found a leprechaun at the end of the rainbow with a pot of gold.

Things like this is what will set us up for a giant crash. Imagine the moment "real" Citi numbers come out, saying they lost billions and need yet another government bailout along with all the other banks.

Wonder how long they can keep the charade up.

And the markets reverse to negative for the first time since yesterday rally.

That means that Citi wasn't able to back up their "liked memo".

Originally posted by marg6043
And the markets reverse to negative for the first time since yesterday rally.

That means that Citi wasn't able to back up their "liked memo".

Accoriding to some, citi wasnt the only reason for the rally, the possible reinstatemant of the uptick rule had something to do with it too. The def. need to reinstate this rule. upstick rule