50% chance of depression

I came across this news report which i surprisingly (not) could not find in the msm.

TexThe US economy has a 50 per cent chance of falling into a depression during the next three years, said Roger Farmer, a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research's economic fluctuations and growth programme.

"There's a significant probability things will get worse," Farmer, 53, said during a phone interview Friday. "We're certainly not at the end of the recession and things are getting worse."

50% chance of depression

Considering that they did not admit the recession till a month ago, when they knew for a whole year before hand just goes on to show that they will keep this from the media in order to avoid further panic which will halt consumer spending - especially considering its Christmas and the majority of retail action happens now.

Talking to my own counterparts in america, i get the sense that unemployment is going to go through the roof in the new year. Only when small business owners officially register as 'unemployed' in Jan /Feb / March, will we get a true indication of how things will be.

I wonder how long before they officially announce the arrival of the Depression.


[edit on 21/12/08 by 04326]

Didn't Biden also say something along those lines in a recent interview? I think we're being told that yes, things are worse than they seem and will be down the road.

My guess is early spring/summer.

I believe the auto industry jobs will be gone, even with an initial bailout, and also industries directly tied to auto will be toast. Then add in the derivatives issue and I just think that will be the last gasp.

I know the auto execs have to meet with congress again in March, but I expect it will mean another couple of weeks of uber-whining before any new monies are denied completely.

Then you have the brutal whipping retail will probably take from this limp shopping season (some of it tied to weather) could lead to an astronomical number of jobs lost and then we would be in near full blown depression.

I'm convinced we'll see at least one retail giant ask for a bailout after the holidays, or many brand names that may announce business failure / mass job loss.

If you add in another economic "stimulus package" (thin air...hello?) then it's pretty much a guarantee.


[edit on 12/22/2008 by shockedonlooker]

After the first quarter of the year, things will start looking up. It may not mean jobs right off but the moves that Obama will be making in the financial markets with sensible regulations and a new degree of transparency, investors will start looking for profitable ways to spending money. New highways will cause land development, new building will be slated for schools and public building, that will spur investment into beefing up construction crews to do the work. Many examples and the knowledge that these will be planned will cause people with money and know how to start moving the economy, be it slow at first. It often takes some kind of shock and destructive force to create an opportunity to make major changes in a society and/or its economy. If it happened, it must have been meant to happen and one could look at it from the perspective that we're all going to suffer some for the cause of positive change and innovation. If the hidden economy comes into the light, if everyone is able to see what is happening and can participate on an even field, and when rules are set, enforced, and people know it, the suffering as a society will be worth it in many ways. It may depend more on how people feel about what the Obama administration is doing as much what is actually being done. So you can look from a positive perspective, grit your teeth, and hope the ride isn't too rough. Then get some rest, this stuff will keep you up at night.

Of course there is a 50% chance we fall into a depression.

Either we do (50%), or we dont (50%).

Originally posted by Government Cheese
Of course there is a 50% chance we fall into a depression.

Either we do (50%), or we dont (50%).

lol - very well put. but the point is that before we were being told 'oh no, there won't be a recession but just a downturn *shifty look* yeah that's right a Down Turn".

Now there is talking (albeit minimal at this stage) of a possible depression in the media. Isn't it always the government tactic to expose us to news little by little before finally admitting that we are in the crap knee deep.

Government bureaucrats are very good at "hedging their bets." What's scary, as had been alluded to by another poster, is that when they begin to drum the beat of "depression," even by saying there is a 50%, that probably means it's only a matter of months before a Depression is officially declared.

50:50? Why not...about the same odds that most charting/analysis packages offer

They're unable to assign a probability value...but, neither Nassim Taleb, or B. Mandelbrot are sleeping well these days. As the media attempts to slough-off Peter Schiff for being too simplistic...Roubini, too dire...Jim Rogers, too curmudgeonly......these gents are seriously concerned:

reply to post by 04326


50% means could happen, could not happen. There is no real conclusion to be made there.

That is a moronic assessment. It's 100% chance. In fact, you are already in it.

reply to post by 04326


I'd say that that figure is conservative as to not cause mass panic.

what does you all think?

I think that just a month or so ago we had no acknowledgement of a economic constriction.

Now we have the introduction of the D word. Hmmmm.

I'd say its a double headed coin Batman.

People like Martin Hennecke have been warning america for a while but no one seems to listen to the guy. Hennecke tells it like it is.

Here's a link to a short interview from a couple of months ago. I don't know how to embed video's but here's the link;

Martin Hennecke about the economy

and there is always Biden:

Biden, speaking in an interview set to air Sunday, said he believed there will be another stimulus package of roughly $700 billion to keep the economy from "absolutely tanking." "The economy is in much worse shape than we thought it was in," Biden told ABC's "This Week," according to excerpts released Friday.

Biden's comments in News story

And the pres elect Obama:

Barack Obama, addressing the press for the fifth straight day, offered perhaps his gloomiest assessment yet on the current economic situation. Relaying how the talks with his economic teams have revealed a landscape far more challenging than previously imagined, he insisted that "a significant amount" of government spending was needed "on the front end." "What is striking in the conversations that we have had with economists from the left and the right over the past several months is how the economic forecasts have deteriorated, and the conclusion has been with credit freezing up, with businesses laying off workers, with a continued weakness in the housing market, and escalating foreclosures, that unless you have a bold approach, you could see the economy continuing to decline at a pretty rapid clip. That is not acceptable to me," he told reporters.

Obama: A continued economic decline is not acceptable

Seems to me that something bigger is in store for 2009 and they are just starting to prepare us for it. Like the previous poster said, the D word is here.

[edit on 22/12/08 by 04326]

I give a lot of weight to the outlooks by Denninger, also Willie,
and the author of www.theinternationalforecaster.com....
who wrte the 20 Dec article: 'Toxic waste threatens to poison the Nation State'...unemployment 30-40% after 2009, also nobody has anything of value to exchange for gold, after the hyperinflation sets in... USD becomes a non-factor.


A depression of the Economy depends on how the Financial industry gets remodeled, its new structure.
If there are only 9 Super-Banks left standing, who continue to scrooge their capital away without any credit lending, then a 50% chance of the economy into depression is a low ball number...

the proper stance would be ''just how bad & long" will the Depression be ?


[edit on 23-12-2008 by St Udio]

Originally posted by St Udio
......the author of www.theinternationalforecaster.com....

That would be Bob Chapman.

First, while I sometimes gloss-over posts, I always make-it a point to read yours St Uido. I respect your research, and your interpretations.

Folks with a newly developed interest in precious metals, or the unfolding economic/stock market debacle, will become instantly familiar with the more prominent pundits...but not necessarily their dubious histories. It's a rocky landscape out there.

Unfortunately, when it comes to greed, corruption, and self-interest...the Gold market is no different than the equities market . This axiom applies equally to [$160-yr] subscription newsletter writers. Despite his popularity with Illuminati watchers (his current niche imo), for many veteran PM stock traders & gutted shareholders, the name Bob Chapman is forever linked to the 2003 Silverado Gold Mines pump & dump.

Gold analyst 'disappears' following WND report

...."Three weeks ago [Chapman] disappeared," said Bill Murphy, chairman of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee."We can't find him. Word is he's gone to Mexico." Continued Murphy: "I'm not happy with this situation. I have few facts to deal with. He's written for my site for four years. He's missed three Saturdays now. I don't know what's happened. It's not showing courtesy for him to not tell others what he's doing. "He's usually very punctual and lets everyone know what's going on. And now there's nothing. But I want to be careful about what I say. "All my people say his phone's been disconnected, and he doesn't respond to e-mail," Murphy added. "He won't contact me. I heard he's in Mexico. That's just a rumor. It's the craziest thing. "He's gone AWOL. Maybe he's lost at sea – who knows? It's disturbing because of the negative publicity. A standup person would at least answer, not disappear. I liked Bob very much, but I'm very disappointed.....

Full Text

I won't dispute the occasional accuracy of BC' macro-analysis, I just think we deserve to be fully informed before committing our $ to the voices du jour.

Silverado 2008: Silverado confesses some sins, but not all
Trades at 0.0101

Actually, you bring up a very important and valid point.

While I'm not an active commodities trader, I am a market pundit and (sometime) financial reporter. Bob isn't the only one that has a shady history. There are many in the commodities market -- and for whatever reason, especially the gold market -- that feel more like P.T. Barnum than Warren Buffett.

Many of these web sites up the doom & gloom aspect of their analysis, sometimes even incorporating some questionable facts and figures to support a proposition that gold is about to shoot through the roof. There's an air of mania to this environment right now, and I would caution anyone out there to seek professional investment advise before dropping any of your life savings in any market right now, short of CDs or a savings account.

As the previous poster said, we CTists are just as easy a target for scam artists as the little old rich lady in Montana taken in by the shyster day trader.

Hmm, 50 percent chance. It’s more like the depression has arrived, but to what degree should be the question.

Where I live the economy still seems stable somewhat. but is sinking at a fast rate. There are some job losses , but not in the thousands yet. Watching the local news the other night. It was mentioned that 200 people were applying for about 50 jobs for a call center company . Two hundred that’s a lot of people in-line; which the news did show. Also reported in the local news 600 jobs lost at a aircraft manufacture. They could no longer meet the payroll

Another factor is foreclosures. In my neighborhood It’s a very rare site to see a home go up for sale or foreclose for that matter, but when it does there sold in 2-3 days. It’s a very sought after neighborhood. That was until 4 months ago. Slowly, people are moving out, not after the sale but before the sale of the homes. 7 homes in 4 months time a few on my street now vacant & foreclosed. The people whom lived in these home I know, and they all make 200K plus a year everyone of them.
I and my wife don’t make near that, not even close. How am I living in this neighborhood you ask? I bought the house no one wanted and in very bad condition at well below market. A steal as some say. I’m almost done with this money pit and no loans to boot. Thanks to that TV ad , just kidding about the TV ad. Lots of slave work though.

Anyway, like I said family’s that make 200K plus are in foreclosure ? I don’t get it. how can they be in this mess with that kind of income .I just have never seen things this bad.

When the economy starts hitting people that make that kind of cash of 200K plus a year. We are in serious trouble folks. I know the news mentions people that bought homes that could not afford them , but someone who makes a very good income looses their home. I start to wonder if they took a hit in the market, lost their retirement and ditched the home to start all over again?

At the grocery store I have noticed some food products are being dropped and never to be seen again. That tells me the companies whom made the products went under or have reduced their distribution due to financial reasons or layoffs.

Time will only tell to what degree this depression will be. The worst is to come on January 8th when the retailers report their income , if any at all from the holiday season. This is just starting up.