Simulation Shows Obama Will Win

Simulation Shows Obama Will Win

Brian Adams, a mathematics and computer science professor at Franklin & Marshall College, reports that there's a 99.98% chance that Sen. Barack Obama will win the presidential election on Tuesday.

Adams has developed a simulation model that involves running 50 million simulated state-by-state races, using the late-October poll results for each state. He ran his simulation 50 million times to allow him to calculate all the different combinations of electoral votes that might result, even long shots. While the number of possible outcomes is very large, the result is always the same. Obama receives 270 or more electoral votes 99.98% of the time. Using intervals of electoral vote results, there is a 95 percent chance that the outcome will have Obama winning between 303 and 381 electoral votes.

Interesting, maybe that's why some in the Obama camp are so confident.
.02% odds are not good for McCain.

Polls reflect this too

www.politico.com... (Obama 353 ECV)


www.intrade.com... (Obama 339 ECV)


www.fivethirtyeight.com... (Obama 350 ECV)


www.electoral-vote.com... (Obama 353 ECV)


www.pollster.com... (Obama 311 ECV)


news.yahoo.com... (Obama 333 ECV)


www.cnn.com... (Obama 291 ECV)


www.realclearpolitics.com... (Obama 353 ECV)


www.usatoday.com... (They let you figure it out on your own)


And for interest the Senate races
www.electoral-vote.com...


Based on the Average of the polls I am locking in my guess for the election at 333 EVC for Obama. Whats yours?

Very interesting find. How did he run it 50 million times?? Thats crazy! But nonetheless, we all have to accept the fact he is going to win.

First of all, the media is clearly already predicting his victory based on the polls. I think its obvious who the media wants to win, just watch any news channel, I think its easy to get the impression he's the major favorite to win, with all the positive coverage he gets verses Mccain.

Second, to me, choosing Mccain or Obama is like choosing between a PC or a MAC. You're gonna get the same basic thing, a computer, but each one has little small differences. But basically, the both do the same thing. That's why, to me anyway, It doesn't make a whole lot of difference who you vote for, as long as you choose the one whose ideas on small things is close to your own values.

For me personally, Obama's plan to increase the burden on the higher classes, the one's who actually still have money these days, and lower our(middle class) taxes is the main reason I would vote for Obama over Mccain, as long as Ron Paul isn't an option!

But I believe your post about his computer simulation choosing the victor. Based on poll data, if I'm correct, Obama has maintained a slight lead for a while now. There's no reason to suspect that's gonna change anytime in the next 3 days or so. But cool post anyways!

I hope you're right Blue_Jay. It's interesting, even though the odds are OVERWHELMINGLY in Obama's favor, I haven't seen people in the Obama camp that are so confident. I keep hearing that we don't know until we know. I don't let myself think that it's a done deal. I am reserved and will remain so until after the election and the winner is clear beyond the shadow of a doubt.

I am emotionally prepared for McCain to win. (If he does, I may not be around here for a while).

All this is interesting. Great finds and thanks for compiling Blue_Jay33!

This election has been very entertaining and I hope there is a communal awarding of whatever prizes the media community gives each other.

reply to post by Benevolent Heretic


It is an interesting find...

I'm wondering if any of his scenarios allowed for a rigged election?

Theoretically, a rigged vote can only change the vote in favor of a candidate by 5% without becoming noticeable...

I still don't know who is going to win... I do feel that McCain has the same smirk and confidence about this election as Bush did with his elections...

When do you suppose the last "honest" election was held?

Originally posted by nj2day


When do you suppose the last "honest" election was held?

1776!

Sorry for the one liner.

Given the polls, that's hardly surprising. Still, virtually all of the polls are based upon Democratic turnout overwhelming Republican turnout and in most cases are spotting the Dems close to a 10 point advantage. But even in the 2006 midterms, the gap was only 2 points, 38D 36R. This is certainly something to keep in mind, given that Obama is performing at or below the Dem affiliation advantage in the polls.

My prediction? McCain pulls off the upset. The overall popular vote percentages will be about 50-47 in his favor, the electoral vote 282-256. If he loses both Pennsylvania and Virginia early in the night, however, he's in serious trouble and would be highly unlikely to win.

Obama's problem is the same that Dems have had for 20 years: rural and smaller town white voters lean solidly Republican. No Democrat, not even Bill Clinton, has garnered more than 43% of the white vote in that time period, if you believe CNN's exit polls. Even those were unusual election years given Perot's impact on both races. Mathematically, Obama will need about 42% of the white vote, at minimum, in order to win the election. At 45%, he wins fairly convincingly. At 40% would be a Dukakis-like disaster. As you can see, the window is small. He's currently polling in the mid 40s. I expect him to be on the borderline when the votes are counted and will actually tally 41 or 42% of the white vote, which would be a difficult gap to overcome.

And before someone whines about racism, again, the Democratic party has had major problems with white voters for at least a couple of decades now, at least in presidential elections.


[edit on 1-11-2008 by vor78]

Why would you need to run a computer program to see that. Why didn't he use a computer program to test a close race, where there is no clear fav.

What is the point of doing something like this?

I could run an Air Emergency Simulation multiple times, and it would always end up in a crash. However, in reality, and without the pre-programming of the outcome, I could regain control of the Aircraft and be successful, or even prevent the scenario in the first place. So what does a ridiculous simulation like this state? Absolutely Nothing. This is at least the Second Thread where you have stated that Senator Obama has already won, so I guess that you have no motive to influence the vote, do you?

Originally posted by Benevolent Heretic


I am emotionally prepared for McCain to win. (If he does, I may not be around here for a while).

Likewise if Senator Obama wins LOL

Honestly though, whomever on here has their candidate win should not run around taunting the supporters of the Candidate who lost. This Country is split deeply enough as is, I can only imagine the anger that will erupt due to taunts and jeers.

Oh it will be "King George and the GOP are dead"!

"Long live Obama and the Democrats"!

Then the world celebrates. This site is going to be a blast come Nov. 4/5

reply to post by JesterMan


We didn't have elections in 1776 (at least not under the Constitution)!

Funniest part about it, when we did finally hold elections, it was considered petty to actually run for it. The real politicians didn't try to get elected at the beginning.

Originally posted by Blue_Jay33
Brian Adams, a mathematics and computer science professor at Franklin & Marshall College...

Whoah, Brian Adams is also a math professor? That blows my mind.



Seriously, though...I'm really looking forward to a post-Tuesday analysis of these polls. There are a lot of unknowns (race, cell-phones, new voters, young voters, etc) and it'll be interesting to see how they all play out.

While I don't fully trust the polls, there's no mistake that all of them point in the same general direction at this point: an Obama win. The rumblings are that the Obama ground game is also set up much, much better than McCain, but we'll see when the final votes come in.

Final poll 11 point spread Obama, LANDSLIDE INCOMING

blogs.usatoday.com...

[edit on 3-11-2008 by Blue_Jay33]