31,573 Alien Civilizations in our Galaxy

Originally posted by mopusvindictus
yeah and by the "what we know" assu,tion we lived at the center of the universe for thousands of years and then held back exploration of the globe for hundreds because "the world was flat"

Yes, some people thought that the Earth was the centre of the universe, but they did not knew it because they had no way of confirming it.

And where did you get that idea the exploration was held back for hundreds of years? What held back exploration was the lack of technology, not the lack of ideas.

some things are just obvious... in those cases scientific method an only slow down progress

When you look at Sun going around the Earth everyday what is the obvious explanation, that the Sun is orbiting the Earth or that the Earth is orbiting the Sun?

That we are not alone is in reality a given...

... probability.

This brings to mind a quote from Terrance McKenna - "If the probability of a coin landing heads or tails was really 50/50, then it would always land on its side."

I have no idea what he was talking about.

Hey

I'm also 1 of those guys who believes we ain't alone in the multiverse. I've looked at it in anyway my feeble mind could grasp . And came to the fair conclusion that any way u look at it u have to admit that "space" is way to big to have only 1 tiny tiny tiny ..... planet to evolve in having something WE call life. My parents are creationists and i'm more one of those science guys and when i look at the whole matter true both sides, i find it hard to believe that. Either God ( who i have trouble believing in ) created the Multiverse for us alone to explore or that we are the only planet in the who Universe with if i remember right holds something like 10 to the 23th stars alone (in the visible universe) that holds life

come on either way u look at it , if u look at the facts presented by anything and u use some commen sense u have to come to the conclusion we are not alone

just my (for what they still woth nowdays) 2 cents

reply to post by ArMaP


That would be untrue, lack of technology was not the issue at all...

Fear, Superstition and EGO, particularly ego of religous conviction...

and lol... seamonsters

Pharohs from thousands of years back had Cocaine in thier noses they had made it to South America on boats not to disimilar to the ones the Vikings had used.. the Chinese claim to have made the journey and polenisian Genes are in Amer Indian Genomes... so they did it by Canoe at least a few times...

The desire to control, to keep people in check, to be at the center, to be important

These are the only valid reality to why... we haven't colonized the moon and mars yet...

ditto for exploration at the time of the new world


Mars is...virtually hallow, it has no reaction at the core or an unsubstantial one...

it has to be riddled with caves, it's basic science, at a depth the ice we KNOW is on the surface melts and forms rivers into the planet... unless of course... physics is different on Mars...

It's all within reach, I would given a very small budget... maybe 2 years of what Nasa recieves, be willing to go to Mars with only a couple of years survival goods... I'd prefer a small nuclear reactor for continual power...

But i'm certain there are days of the year I could walk on the surface with strong as heck sunblock and an oxygen mask as my only aids

and that there is life in those caverns produceing that methane

Probability perhaps... I go wth probability when it reaches the 90 = % range in most decsions in life..even life and death ones...

for arguments sake the word definite is unfair...

But almost definte is appropriate and real given the evidence we have

and considering the human condition and lack of a frontier... the choice very well may be life or death

Mars doesnt exist its a conspiracy theory

Modern humans within a media driven postmodern fictional universe, the whole sense of whats real and true comes from whats pumped out by mas media, nothing more than that. Geopolitical ideals, terrorism, aliens, wars, oil, hunger, pollution, people believe in general what they are fed en masse. Thats not going to change anytime soon.

all i'm saying is... there is every proof in the world life can exist in a myriad of forms and condition and all the proff in the galaxy that we have billions of worlds to choose from...

and, our condition if this is not the case... is one of being Doomed

I have trouble both scientifically given the vast number of attempots we have made to show where life cannot exist and been proven wrong to see any reason why the same trend will not apply consitantly and natural as science goes across the spectrum of worlds

and given, religion... I see no reason for any creator, to have made a universe that only had one life supporting planet in it and every thing in all religions to indicate this is not the case

from either stand point... I can't look at futility. Call it assumption, but I just Know and it is not in my survival instincts and my natural senses to believe that my life is futile, that there is no place to go and no way to spread when life itself shows me it survives in any condition we have observed it put into

Perhaps this is part of the hoplessnes and desperation that grips many of us these days... a sense of futility in a belief that we have no alternatives...

and, some creatures have a survival instinct...

some people get shipwrecked and survive at sea for months, others have faith ...some aspect that KNOWS...even with the odds stacked against them they Can do it...

and those people don't perish

My gut instinct above all else... tells me, the rule sare the same everywhere, that it's easier than we think, that it's not so impossible as those who...are not natural survivors lead us to think...

I am certain the nearest proof of Life is Mars, maybe just a bit different than we would like or expect but there...a first stepping stone, life can survive there, there is shelter under the Earth... the Science is the same, we can do this, the things we need are already there right below the surface, water, air, organisms...

The only way to end the debate is to just go...
just like some brave person of faith once got on Canoe and ended up in South America a year later...

Originally posted by mopusvindictus
What your doing is actually anti scientific, the laws of probability and basic Math should leave us with the assumption that given prior results we can expect the same pattern to continue unless we encounter some reason to believe it should not continue.

This is exactly what I'm saying. But how did life originate? What pattern of events occurred such that we can say that if a similar pattern occurs, we can expect life to form?

Exactly how is it that warm water, some stray hydrocarbons, electricity in the air, and gravity combine to create life? Is it just magic? Does God do it? Or is it some kind of automatic chemical reaction? Walk me through the specific steps where some stuff in a pond of chemical goop arranges itself to form into a living thing with a point of view. That, I would like to know.

Now, maybe when we understand that particular pattern of events, we may be able extrapolate to other planets that have similar sizes, temperatures, and puddles of warm goo. At the moment, though, there's nothing to indicate that even if you had a planet identical to Earth in every way life would automatically form on it.

reply to post by mopusvindictus


That was a spot on post

Reading it reminded me that i am actually a fully signed up believer of Abiogenesis, which as such would mean that it would be alot easier for life to exist on other planets than is given by other theories.

But this highlights a contradiction in my beliefs, because i cannot accept that life is abundent in the universe, especially intelligent civilisations, as much as some of these ridiculous guessing games would suggest.

There is zero proof for it, and as such you cannot make such a massivly important assumption. Just because it is probable doesnt make it fact.

Why is everyone so keen to believe these theories based on assumption and extrapolation that life is common? When everything we know thru observable fact suggests the opposite: that life it is very very rare indeed. I think all these wild claims detract away from that, and its a shame.

I have a better way to put it. The number of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy (or universe) is 1+x. x is currently unknown. Just because we don't know of any aliens yet doesn't mean they suddenly come into existence the moment we discover them.

Originally posted by Man_Versus_AntiMan

But this highlights a contradiction in my beliefs, because i cannot accept that life is abundent in the universe, especially intelligent civilisations, as much as some of these ridiculous guessing games would suggest.

There is zero proof for it, and as such you cannot make such a massivly important assumption. Just because it is probable doesnt make it fact.

Why is everyone so keen to believe these theories based on assumption and extrapolation that life is common? When everything we know thru observable fact suggests the opposite: that life it is very very rare indeed. I think all these wild claims detract away from that, and its a shame.

Common sense. Im sorry but a simple study of history would be able to answer all of your questions. Once humans didnt believe in the possibility of life over the seas, that was until we had ships capable of crossing the seas and finding out that "ohh looK" theres huge continents over here.

In fact i Europe had though as you do now, the USA would never have existed. Consider the reality.


Probability comes from the oldest and most fundemanetal science of all mathematics, its a proven and established descipline so to be saying probability isnt valid is just ludicrous.

Why does sceine look for anything? By your reckoning nothing that isnt here and now is possibly real, how then do you account for progress?

Humans once thought the world was flat, why do you think we know its round? Certainly not by sitting from the assured position of "i cant see it so it must be so"

Honestly could you give a weaker argument?

Your argument has no basis in logic, no basis in reason, no basis in science. Probability is based on logic and fact.

Originally posted by Spartannic
And came to the fair conclusion that any way u look at it u have to admit that "space" is way to big to have only 1 tiny tiny tiny ..... planet to evolve in having something WE call life.

Hauling out my box analogy again. So you're saying if you have a box with a red ball in it, and you have absolutely no idea how that red ball got in there, if you make the box bigger, as big as the galaxy even, then there just has be another red ball in there somewhere? Why?

Why would you think that? Because you're assuming that whatever the chemical/electrical/random process was that allowed life to form on this planet will probably happen on other planets, given the right stuff and enough time? Why? You don't even know what that process was.

Without understanding the process, there's no way of telling if it's common or so extremely rare that it only happened once in the entire history of the universe. No way.

reply to post by silver6ix


Think about what your saying.

There is no way of working out the probable number of civilisations in the universe, its impossible as we only know of 1.

What your talking about is pure guess work which is neither logic nor fact.

reply to post by GrayFox

I have a better way to put it. The number of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy (or universe) is 1+x. x is currently unknown. Just because we don't know of any aliens yet doesn't mean they suddenly come into existence the moment we discover them.

as long as x>=0 -- now, im not saying there are negative civilizations, but there is a lot of space out there.

reply to post by Nohup


That is indeed the big stump of a question...

I as a person have never understood the debate between Religion and Science

As a person... a big Bang = a moment of creation and In the first day G-d created light = the gasses coalesed and stars were formed...

The only discrpancy there is between Genesis and Science is the word DAY... and it is easy fo me to simply say "What's a day in the life of G-d?"


Call it what you will or perhaps the understanding of how the soup becomes life is just slightly beyond our grasp...or maybe it will always be...

But Nature, G-d, Science...

The whole thing from Molecules to Galaxies is Fractal...we can observe it in nature and I have nothing that I see that says genesis of life...like everything else happened just here on Earth, not from any direction I look at this...

If there is a G-d he repeated everything in creation adinfinitum so why would there be this ONE exception to the rule?



When I look up... I am inspired, I see divinity...concious divinty? I don't know... but none the less, it all seems to have been made very easy and follows very predictable repeating patterns...

The more I know of science and math the easier it in fact becomes to say the word "Intention"

and perhaps this is the true meaning of FAITH...

Because I go outside and I can see the Moon... there is my scientific proof, we can colonize space...and have the raw material we need to go beyond... a giant Ball of useful crap to land on and built spaceships from in all convienience hanging right over our heads...

and then our two closer neighbors... one needs a little more atmospher one needs a little less... and as our poressence here alters our own atmosphere, I don't see this as much of a long term issue... particularly when Mars is wet and almost hallow!!!!

when I see the kupier belt and realize that... there are dozens of planetoids... and comets mostly made of water and thats's Hydrogen and Oxygen...

it just seems like it's meant to be to me...

I entertain the thought all the time that... we can hop all the way to A centauri given the nature of things and the sheer number of planetids and failed stars Math and science tell me there must be.. there is certainly large objects inbetween the stars...


and the whole Fractalness of it all... if coconuts float from island to Island... then why not planet to planet...we know life can survive the ride... so there MUST be life seeded already... started it's journey a Billion years ahead of us..even if the act of creation was only Here on Earth... every time a rock has nailed us..pieces of it went flying, surely some survived

It really feels like the path is clear to me... that we should have alot of Faith here... not the dogmatic, bs kind of faith, but real Faith that it wasn't all in vain that it's the same everywhere, because there is..absolutely nothing I see to indicate it isn't and no logic to a g-d that what make a world designed to fail or that from a perspective of science we follow different rules than the rest of the Galaxy

i Just see..nothing, in science or religion that indicates that life is an isolated thing, even if it was originated only here...

reply to post by Man_Versus_AntiMan


We cant btw say we know any such thing... where ever we have looked, 1000 + degree volcanic vents, deep sea scorching trenches, 2 miles under the earth, beneath nthe ice in Antartica...

we find life...

We have not set foot anywhere else aside from the moon and when we did we explored... .001 percent of it's surface...

Recently we have more and more proof that there is water... who knows what lies at the bottom of those giant dusty seas in those craters or under the surface

to date... wherever we have looked in whatever envoronment we have looked and looked thoroughly, we have found life...

reply to post by Nohup


I would have to ask... when formations of planets is now know to be a constant, why would the assumption be that the process is so very rare not the opposite.

All other rules in science are considered constants once we know them, every drop of chemistry, we can land craft and send probes to other worlds and we can determine the content of the atmosphere from vast distances...

so what would lend you to the belief that life...unlike every other process is not also a constant?

Why the exception to the rule?

The only response I ever truely get comes down to g-d... to which my answer is always why would g-d tell us to have faith and multiply away if he had not aranged for our ability to expand?

Originally posted by Man_Versus_AntiMan
reply to post by silver6ix

 

Think about what your saying.

There is no way of working out the probable number of civilisations in the universe, its impossible as we only know of 1.

What your talking about is pure guess work which is neither logic nor fact.

Im afraid you need to study maths. Probability is an exceptionally complex mathematical calculation, calling it guesswork is just ill informed.

The whole concept opf probability is to equate the potential of something, thats why its called probability. So yes, there is a way to determine the number of possible "anything" even when only earth life is known, its called probability.

Could I do the equation? No and neither could anyone else on this board because you would probably need and advanced masters in maths to perform that equation.

You are dismissing pure science and maths based on what? What you can see? Thats not a reasonable position.

reply to post by Man_Versus_AntiMan


Intelligent civilizations... whole other bag of woms...

lots of room for conjecture... even given life, Intelligence? Dolphins are more intelligent perhaps and lack the capacity to do anything about it...

so... who knows...

But bacteria and the ability for simple life to grow and support us as we Journey, of his I have no doubts...

Now, does it walk upright and carry a blaster?

Aggg!!! Maybe... maybe not, that would be alot more unique than life itself for sure...

reply to post by philjwolf


Millions of people are not speculating whether there is life on the planet or not. They have either seen ufos and trusted their own logic over the baloney explanations, and many are experiencing direct phenomenon from those pilating the crafts. I don't have to speculate. Not in the least. And I'm just one of countless others.

life maybe common but if you asked any evolutionary biologist they would say tech intelligence like us (humans) is very rare.

in evolution they have whats known as "convergent features". for example the eye has evolved independantly 50 or 60 times that we know of. Nature keeps coming up with it and there are multiple pathways in diffirent organisms to evolve the eye. Some would extrapolate that to life in the galaxy. If we found a planet with complex life it would likely contain creatures with eyes of some sort.

we can ask the question. Is tech intelligence a convergent feature of evolution? The answer is a resounding no. It arose only once in 500 million years out of billions of species. Nature just doesnt seem very interested in intelligence. So to say tech intelligence is common in our galaxy i think is just plain wrong.

[edit on 20-10-2008 by yeti101]