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31,573 Alien Civilizations in our Galaxy

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posted on Oct, 20 2008 @ 05:31 PM
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Originally posted by mopusvindictus
If there is a G-d he repeated everything in creation adinfinitum so why would there be this ONE exception to the rule?


Not everything is repeated or duplicated. For instance, there are nearly 7 billion people on Earth. That's a lot of people. But how many of you are there? Just the one. So, that's undeniable proof that there are plenty of unique things in the universe. And maybe a planet with life on it is one of those unique things.




posted on Oct, 20 2008 @ 05:35 PM
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Originally posted by silver6ix
Im afraid you need to study maths. Probability is an exceptionally complex mathematical calculation, calling it guesswork is just ill informed.

The whole concept opf probability is to equate the potential of something, thats why its called probability. So yes, there is a way to determine the number of possible "anything" even when only earth life is known, its called probability.

Could I do the equation? No and neither could anyone else on this board because you would probably need and advanced masters in maths to perform that equation.

You are dismissing pure science and maths based on what? What you can see? Thats not a reasonable position.


I need to study maths? Im no professor, but i do punt, and I think you should perhaps look at the basics of probability before you start talking such drivel.

If we knew of just one other civilisation other then our own, we could work out probabilities, by extrapolating the number of known civilisations in a given area to the area of the known universe.

But due to the fact that there is just one, us, you cannot come up with any probable number other than one. This doesnt mean life elsewhere isnt probable, only that we cannot come up with a probability for it.
Any figure other than 1 quoted as a probable number is just a guess at best. It is not 'science or maths', please look up the definition of both if you are confused.

And the Drake equation? Its absolute rubbish based on parameters that are sheer assumption. That is not mathematics. Calling it an 'equation' is blatent false advertising. You clearly do not know what you are talking about.

Unbelievable.



posted on Oct, 20 2008 @ 05:35 PM
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Originally posted by mopusvindictus
I would have to ask... when formations of planets is now know to be a constant, why would the assumption be that the process is so very rare not the opposite.


Because we don't know what the specific process of the creation of life is. Yeah, planets might evolve similarly, but who says that has anything to do with it?

Even if it was "God," that did the creating there's no indication that this hypothetical entity did it more than once. I personally don't understand what God is, anyway, so that's like trying to explain an unknown with something undefined.

But the bottom line is that there is no wonderful mathematical formula that will come up with a probable number of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy, because we don't know the values of some of the most fundamental variables.



posted on Oct, 20 2008 @ 06:03 PM
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well, for the sake of the 31,573 (?) alien civilizations *snickers*, let's hope that we don't come across them any time soon. We have not proven ourselves capable of even taking care of our own species and planet.

And for those who say that we could learn much from them, that is BS speculation. We haven't even learned from ourselves and we are perfectly capable and equipped to have done so by now. This is just ridiculous that so many are more fascinated with proving something that we don't know exists instead of appreciating and trying to help improve what we have here in front of us.

Just like "man" to never be satisfied. Always wanting something bigger and better.



posted on Oct, 20 2008 @ 06:04 PM
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reply to post by Wolf321
 


I have never seen anywhere a set of variables explained in a way so that Drake's equation would go anywhere above 50.

Where do you have your sources? What are the parameters?

On a side note, I've never estimated that equation to be anywhere close to reality, because firstly it is way too statistical (yes I know, but I hate statistics) and way too arbitrary in its choices of values. Under some harsh but not totally unrealistic numbers, we have less than 0.1% of chance to exist....



posted on Oct, 20 2008 @ 06:24 PM
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Originally posted by Nohup
Not everything is repeated or duplicated. For instance, there are nearly 7 billion people on Earth. That's a lot of people. But how many of you are there? Just the one. So, that's undeniable proof that there are plenty of unique things in the universe. And maybe a planet with life on it is one of those unique things.


You're making some very good points. There's no denying that. But... maybe is maybe. Maybe we're alone. Maybe we're not alone. Until we know, we can only guess. I really don't see why we'd be alone though. I mean, I acknowledge the possibility, but I personally doubt it. Any naturally occurring element on the periodic table can be found throughout the universe. And though there is nothing that proves that they've combined in the correct way to form life on another planet.... there's no reason to think the opposite either. But, in the end, we still don't know for sure either way. The number of intelligent races in the universe is 1+x. It's not 1 (unless x equals 0).

[edit on 20-10-2008 by GrayFox]



posted on Oct, 20 2008 @ 06:42 PM
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Originally posted by Man_Versus_AntiMan
If we knew of just one other civilisation other then our own, we could work out probabilities, by extrapolating the number of known civilisations in a given area to the area of the known universe.

But due to the fact that there is just one, us, you cannot come up with any probable number other than one. This doesnt mean life elsewhere isnt probable, only that we cannot come up with a probability for it.
Any figure other than 1 quoted as a probable number is just a guess at best. It is not 'science or maths', please look up the definition of both if you are confused.

And the Drake equation? Its absolute rubbish based on parameters that are sheer assumption. That is not mathematics. Calling it an 'equation' is blatent false advertising. You clearly do not know what you are talking about.

Unbelievable.


Uhmmm did you just say that?


Sorry but you really do need to check you information. Probability in this case will envolve hundreds of consideration, conditions of life, propensity of bacterial life, and a a whole shed load more factors.

Im afraid you really need to chcek this before you come back, the length of the equations used to do this scale of probability calculation are probably pages long involving hundreds of different subsets of equations long before the final equation.

I cant believ you just called probability guesswork. Let me tell you as someone who has done probability (my most hated maths subject of a whole load of hated maths subjects), it will give you a *snip* headache running the neccessary equations to calculate any complex event.

Pr[r]=N!
r!(N−r)!
πr(1−π)N−r (6)

Thats an equation for just calculating the probability of a number of likely times you might get a given number in x throws of a dice.

Im pretty sure you can figure out what the equation for calculating life on other planets would look like. You wouldnt fit it into the post count on the forum im afraid.

Probability as I said is a VERY complex and VERY equation heavy purely numerical science of calculation.

Like I said this kind of probability cannot be done on a single equation you would have to first calculate the probability for life to exist in X environments and conditions, calculate the probability of other planets makeups and a gazillion other thngs before you could run the final equation and get an answer. personally id rather burn my own eyes out than even consider doing such a calculation.

Just for a laugh.....try this



www.stat.cmu.edu...

I think probability has the most mind boggling equations known to man and since every complex event requires a mind boggler for each of its hundreds of sub events, basically doing probability on alien life = *snip* THAT!!
[edit on 20-10-2008 by silver6ix]

[edit on 20-10-2008 by silver6ix]

==!==
Mod Edit:
*snip* two F-Bombs
Mod Edit: Profanity/Circumvention Of Censors – Please Review This Link.


[edit on 21/10/2008 by Badge01]



posted on Oct, 20 2008 @ 07:06 PM
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Gary Renard describes in his books that humans first came to Mars then went to Earth because of panspermia.



posted on Oct, 20 2008 @ 07:09 PM
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No more talk of probability. Its a very good mathematical study, taught in very high level advanced maths, thats enough to state the field has credibility.

Probability saying alien life probably exists is not any diferent than quantum physics saying strings exists. Copious equations and calculations leading to a conclusion which none of us have the skills to follow


I hate maths with a passion.



posted on Oct, 20 2008 @ 07:11 PM
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there is more proof that god exists then of life on other planets.

what a funny guestamation ahhahahaha

we cant travel further then the moon if we even got there and there going to tell us there is how many life forms?


funny stuff "joke of the day"



posted on Oct, 20 2008 @ 07:31 PM
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Originally posted by mopusvindictus
That would be untrue, lack of technology was not the issue at all...
It was, only ships able to go against the wind could go everywhere and back, before that they had to wait for the right winds to bring them back from where they had gone.


Pharohs from thousands of years back had Cocaine in thier noses they had made it to South America on boats not to disimilar to the ones the Vikings had used.. the Chinese claim to have made the journey and polenisian Genes are in Amer Indian Genomes... so they did it by Canoe at least a few times...
Yes, they may have done that (that is a subject with which I am not really familiar), but only when the Portuguese started using Latin sails did they start going to places where they did not ventured before, because they did not knew if they could come back, and not everyone likes suicide missions. It was not because they thought the world was flat (they knew already that the world was not flat at that time), it was because there was no certainty of their coming back, and because those voyages were expensive, only when a prince thought of investing time and money in that did they start building the ships and organising things to explore unknown or little known areas.


The desire to control, to keep people in check, to be at the center, to be important

These are the only valid reality to why... we haven't colonized the moon and mars yet...
I don't see a reason for colonising the Moon or Mars yet, it would be very expensive and I do not know if the result would be worth it.


ditto for exploration at the time of the new world
No.


it has to be riddled with caves, it's basic science, at a depth the ice we KNOW is on the surface melts and forms rivers into the planet... unless of course... physics is different on Mars...
It has? Why? Just because it is possible it must be? Yes, there are at least seven (I think) known things that look like cave entries or tunnels on Mars, but for all that we know they are the only ones and may end just some metres below.


It's all within reach, I would given a very small budget... maybe 2 years of what Nasa recieves, be willing to go to Mars with only a couple of years survival goods... I'd prefer a small nuclear reactor for continual power...
I do not know if your calculations are right, but I doubt it.


But i'm certain there are days of the year I could walk on the surface with strong as heck sunblock and an oxygen mask as my only aids
Probably, the temperature is not prohibitive, an oxygen mask would be enough to give you the needed oxygen, the lower pressure should not be a problem after some time getting accustomed to it, and the sunlight (that I think is 70% of what we get here on Earth), although not filtered as much as here on Earth, should not be strong enough to harm us, I think the biggest problem would be the cosmic radiation.


and that there is life in those caverns produceing that methane
Why on the caves? Why not on the surface? We have only seen up close a very small area, and even that area that we have seen, we were not looking for life, and maybe we can not distinguish as life the life that may be there awaiting us.



posted on Oct, 20 2008 @ 08:38 PM
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wait a second...
We cant find ONE credible peice of deffinate evidence that alien life exist and now we know the exact number of civilizations there are in an never-ending universe?
Im a believer but sometimes you just have to be realistic.



posted on Oct, 20 2008 @ 08:47 PM
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Originally posted by musclefreak
wait a second...
We cant find ONE credible peice of deffinate evidence that alien life exist and now we know the exact number of civilizations there are in an never-ending universe?
Im a believer but sometimes you just have to be realistic.


Theres no exact number being given only the probable number or the number with the highest probability. Probability doesnt deal in exact answers only predictive reasoning.

We cant find a credible piece of evidence to believe gravitons or strings exist and yet we accept it. Human science and history is littered with rediculous assumptions and naive positions by mainstream thought im afraid.

Most recently you only have to look at Global Warning. Humanity in general has a mental deficiency in being able to accept anything but what it sees, a weakness not a strength which is why the breakthroughs of science generally come from those branded "mad" by their peers as all the great scientists of old were.

The problem is not with the reasoning behind probability the problem is with humans ability to accept or deal with the unknown.

Mainstream ideas and mainstream science has held the human race back 100 years in science. They have delayed every major discovery with their choices to alienate and mock breakthroughs and new ideas which they later came to accept. Im afraid mainstream science is a shameful stigma and only a few truly brilliant scientists have ever existed.

[edit on 20-10-2008 by silver6ix]



posted on Oct, 20 2008 @ 09:54 PM
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I believe that for one, our math is not advanced enough, our minds are too small to make any assumptions on the scale of the universe or existence of lifeforms on or above our own in intelligence, out of the billions of galaxy's our small time being able to explore is nothing, imagine if the space program were hundreds of years old and what they could accomplish and find out.

I truly believe that we will make contact for all to see at some point in time.



posted on Oct, 20 2008 @ 10:42 PM
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Originally posted by Nohup

Originally posted by Wolf321
Yet so many people still think that the mere idea of aliens is laughable. I think if as a whole, we would acknowledge the probability alone, great things could happen.


There's no way to accurately determine the probability of other life (or civilizations) in this galaxy because we know of only one planet with life on it - Earth - and no clue as to how life got here.

Therefore, given all of the available data known at the moment, the number of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy = 1. The number of planets with life on them = 1.

[edit on 20-10-2008 by Nohup]


You are correct,
but we are also intelligent enough to know that there is life out there, otherwise we wouldn't exist. How many civilizations? Well, I think this quote from the article explains it better than I could...

"The real question is whether we’ll ever have good enough data to plug in to a model like this to give us a decent answer, without actually discovering another intelligent civilisation. And the answer to that is almost certainly not."



posted on Oct, 20 2008 @ 11:08 PM
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If you accept that there is life out there; the next question is how much of it is intelligent and how many have figured out how to travel hundreds/thousands/millions of light years to visit others? If any? I'd say that narrows it down a bit.



posted on Oct, 20 2008 @ 11:31 PM
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Originally posted by Solarskye
reply to post by Nohup
 


You are so right Nohup.

Until there is positive proof that life exist somewhere in our Galaxy besides earth then there is only one. " 31,573 Alien Civilizations " and still no overwhelming proof of life anywhere else but here on the planet earth.

People can argue this all day long, but until we travel in our Galaxy and explore other planets then earth is our only frontier for now. It's nice to think about other life in our Galaxy but the fact is we don't know until they land here or we land there.


You people wow me with your closed minds. DO you really think that this universe houses only one, I won't use intelligent, species? It's a BIG universe, and I highly doubt we're the Kings of it. Maybe if we stopped killing each other over dumb *snip* and worked towards a common goal, we wouldn't even have to worry about it? Who knows. One thing I do know though is that if you believe we're the only life in the universe, then you have *snip*, block, whatever you want to call it. And all I can do is point and feel sorry for you.
Here's a good analogy for you. Think about virus and bacteria. You would never know they were there if it weren't for speculation and science. Or more like Probabilities rather than Possibilities.

==!==
Mod Edit:
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Announcement: Civility & Decorum are Expected



[edit on 21/10/2008 by Badge01]



posted on Oct, 20 2008 @ 11:38 PM
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reply to post by mystiq
 



Why must you see your way into an intelligent conversation with your mumbo jumbo about aliens visiting us. You offer no proof to what you say while others are discussing this rationally. They are talking about the probability of life in our solar system, yet you jump into this conversation declaring that other forms of life are here. FACT: Yes life most likely is out there but are they visiting us...ummm no..that probability is pretty much nil. Fantasies must not be used as an argument in a scientific one conversation. Show us valid proof then people will take you seriously.


[edit on 20-10-2008 by riggs2099]



posted on Oct, 20 2008 @ 11:44 PM
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I can only wonder which one is the most violent, the most peaceful, the biggest, the smallest, the oldest, and the youngest, and which civilization has the hottest girls



posted on Oct, 21 2008 @ 12:12 AM
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reply to post by riggs2099
 


I was asked to elaborate. And you are hardly the judge of anyone. Your negativity and personal attack is not intelligent or logical. Its just rude and mean. There is nothing you can say that changes the circumstances of other peoples. Their lives and experiences remain intact despite your opinions. Nor can you take anyones voice away.



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