The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Okay, I'm not talking about right now, but when they talk "high" inflation because of defaulting on payments what do they consider "high"?

The deflation so what exactly does that mean? I know what deflation is, and I know it sucks, but does it help our situation out at all? Or is it just as bad?

reply to post by Hastobemoretolife


It is a consequence (deflation) of losing a lot of our wealth. We have been pumping money into the system.. but think about all the $$$$ we lost as a country.

I guess if you could explain what you are talking about a little more about inflation.. perhaps I am misunderstanding your questions

It got what they are talking about now.


As far as inflation goes, Like on an academic debate, when they say we could witness "high" inflation what constitutes "high" inflation. Like when they are talking about what happens and the criteria is met for "high" inflation, what do they consider "high" inflation academically speaking?

I'm not saying that it is happening now but how many percent inflation are they hypothetically talking about. I know we had what was it 13% inflation rate in the late 70's they call that "double digit" inflation, would that have also been considered high inflation, or are they talking about like 25%+ "high" inflation?

Inflation and Deflation really differ from Hyperinflation in the sense that hyperinflation is caused by a total loss of faith in a currency, whereas inflation and deflation are normal fluctuations caused by the Fed in its currency manipulations. For instance, they managed to devalue the dollar by 96% since their inception in 1913, albeit slowly. Hyperinflation is the end game, when everyone wakes up and realizes that the last 4% is fading fast. That's when all the dollars that are in 'savings' everywhere come out to chase anything and everything while they still can. Hope that helps.

reply to post by Hastobemoretolife


High inflation I guess would be over the average inflation (which i believe is 3%) so lets say 5%?

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
200 period EMA (fixed)


So we have been under the 200 period EMA for far too long now.

Time to make the run back up

EDIT: sorry that was not updated..


FIXING chart

[edit on 17-6-2009 by GreenBicMan]

Its about time!


If we hold the 200 EMA here look to have a really nice next couple days IMO

reply to post by GreenBicMan




And one more update before I take off

Have fun

For average Joe it is like this.

Deflation: prices are "normal" or sink, but average Joe has no money to spend (he is jobless). Very bad because it kills economy, demand... There is plenty of stuff in shops. Salaries are cut down.

Inflation: prices go up slowly, salaries stagnate. Average Joe can buy less and less, tightening his belt. This usually starts with energy prices going up, like oil. Increase in oil prices will trigger transportation costs, and that will trigger production costs, and rise in prices of goods. Purchasing power goes down. Shops slowly get emptier.

Hyperinflation: State tries to intervene, prints money, salaries rise. In order to catch up with reality, prices also rise, and it's a race now, money is devalued on daily basis, or in hours. No matter how much money you have, it is worthless.

The solution is in accepting reality. Denomination of money, adapting to life in poor environment. Reduction of standard.

This reduction of standard has already taken place, but it is not officially confirmed, that's why it is still called "crisis" or "recession". The facts are being denied.

What is now "depression" tomorrow will be "normal".

There is no quick way out of it.

I think it is hilarious how these CNBC people being interviewed are saying how all this money is on the side lines. Why do they think that these people will jump right back in? Markets have moved up so quickly, most things aren't cheap and the economic land scape hasn't changed much. Most people in the U.S. have been burned already by the stock market (perhaps many times). So why do they still cite this as being a sure sign that people will jump in "just because"?

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


Denial. Straight up denial. They know in the back of their minds that things are about to crash and even their lavish lifestyles are going to take a hit, so they don't want to believe it.

Or they are just autonomous robots regurgitating what ever is fed into them. They also see their ratings hitting zero when the economy collapses.

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
200 period EMA (fixed)


So we have been under the 200 period EMA for far too long now.

Time to make the run back up

EDIT: sorry that was not updated..


FIXING chart

[edit on 17-6-2009 by GreenBicMan]

do we have conflicting info

finance.yahoo.com...

not to mention the SPX appears very vulnerable to break below it's own 200 day MA......lets see if uncle ben and the PPT show up late day or allow the correction......note this will not be bullish for the DJIA lol

finance.yahoo.com...

ya ya all the money on the side lines been saying that for a while now....but i think there is a good point to be made their which relates to the Psychology and JOB status of money managers.......say now that they just missed the rally ......they are waiting for a correction lower.....which doesn't break below the march lows.....then the idea is that they will jump all in to help recoup some of their clients money....

.the question i have is how many of these managers as a % are there......i mean i'm sure there are a ton who just kept their clients money in the whole damn time ....saying it's ok ....it's ok....it umm...



[edit on 17-6-2009 by cpdaman]

Originally posted by Hastobemoretolife
reply to post by redhatty

 

Okay I got it.

Since it's fiat money, the confidence lost from a defaulted payment means inflation because the currency is worth less, due to a loss in confidence.

Okay another question, what exactly constitutes "high" inflation? 100%, 50%, 25%?

10% or more is high inflation.

BUT...

That is a GOOD THING for people who save money, as you earn more interest on your savings.

Unfortunately, being able to actually manage to save when you barely have enough money to make it through the month AND eat, is a tough thing to do.

If we go to 25% or higher, the USD is dead in the water & you might as well wipe your backside with your FRNs

But again, that is not what is happening now, BUT, since we KNOW it is probably going to happen (not 25% but somewhere between 8-13% i would guess) any money we save now can later be put into an interest bearing savings account and make money for us, just by sitting still.

Something to ponder

BTW, remember those Bearer Bonds, well it took 9 days for the US to declare them "Fakes"

but, the guys who were carrying them have now disappeared!!!

You can't make this stuff up!

Why weren't they arrested in the first place until the status of the bonds was determined???

reply to post by cpdaman


The double top in the S&P may be more of a bearish signal than any of the simple or exponential moving averages. Investors would be looking at a relatively small move back up to resistance levels. Still haven't seen the big short seller traders coming back in though.

The treasury department decided not to let the public believe we had a lot of hidden outstanding bond debt apparently. Who were those two couriers working for though?



[edit on 17-6-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]

BIG BREAKING NEWS: Beijing orders 'Buy China' for stimulus projects

BEIJING (AP) — China has imposed a requirement for its stimulus projects to use domestically made goods — a move that could strain ties with trading partners after Beijing criticized Washington's "Buy American" stimulus provisions.

Projects must obtain official permission to use imported goods, said an order issued by China's main planning agency and eight other government bodies.

Beginning of the trade wars and protectionism?

reply to post by Hastobemoretolife


Is it...

Inflation?

Or Deflation?

No, it's inflation.. and deflation..

Or is it deflation ........and inflation?

Or maybe it really is stagflation? Yes, stagflation..

No, wait.. it's really inflation, no deflation... ah... what ever.

Technically speaking, it really is deflation. Deflation occurs when we see the general money supply contract, and also the purchasing power of the American people. Inflation is sort of the same thing, the dollar is devalued but it's because there are more dollars, not less.

When the dollar supply contracts generally the price of goods collapses.. which we are seeing across F500 companies. They are selling more, but for less.

However the CPI is slowly rising, because the Dollar is being pumped up and thus more dollars, less it's worth .. but it's not hitting the general populace.

This is still Deflation .. the money supply of the broader economy is stagnant or deflating.. but it's ironic that now prices will increase as the upper levels of the economy have more money, prices of raw material will drastically increase.. especially food and oil.

"high Inflation" is anything considered above normal (4%ish) .. if we where at 6% it would be considered abnormally high. Granted, inflation is almost always much worse then official numbers, sorta like Unemployment. Go figure.

We cannot see Really High Inflation until the money it's the people.... I am currently trying to buy a house out here because I know eventually the money WILL trickle down into the economy, it has to if we want to see a revival, and by looking at how much cash is being created it's not entirely impossible to assume we will see inflation at 10% or more. It all really depends on how many high paying government jobs are being created.. this will boost consumer spending, and it will eventually turn the deflationary spiral we are in around into a inflationary one.

Inflation is good -- deflation is bad. High and Hyper inflation = not good.

Inflation and Deflation can be confusing simply because their symptoms can look identical, but it's the root cause that truly defines the situation. Since the Consumer is experiences a stagnate income growth (or negative), savings is below 0% and credit is all but gone .. we are in a period considered as a "Deflationary Spiral" ..

Simply by rule of thump, we literally cannot have inflation (not just inflation of goods, but money into the economy via consumer) until job growth takes off, savings or credit increases and wage growth expands.

Damn..... sorry for yet another long post.

Given the differences in recent post on what "High Inflation" is, I suppose you could say it's all relative to your personal position. Perspective.

I view it in historical terms.. 13+% inflation being some of the highest numbers we have ever seen post WW2 I assume anything above average (2-6%ish) to be "high" .. you know, since it's "higher" then normal.

But again, it's all perspective isn't it? I have found that Economics, though dealing with much math is a very imprecise science, at least, when it comes to definitions of the mathematical outcomes.

I remember that a few on this thread are from Michigan or around Detroit...

This is disturbing news...

Retailers Head for Exits in Detroit

Retailers Head for Exits in Detroit
Shopping Becomes a Challenge as Auto-Industry Collapse Adds to City's
By ANDREW GROSSMAN

DETROIT -- They call this the Motor City, but you have to leave town to buy a Chrysler or a Jeep.

Borders Inc. was founded 40 miles away, but the only one of the chain's bookstores here closed this month. And Starbucks Corp., famous for saturating U.S. cities with its storefronts, has only four left in this city of 900,000 after closures last summer.

But lately, they are finding it increasingly tough to buy groceries or get a cup of fresh-roast coffee as the 11th largest U.S. city struggles with the recession and the auto-industry crisis.

The city's 22.8% unemployment rate is among the highest in the U.S.; 30% of residents are on food stamps.

Detroit is more and more a third world city... sad.

reply to post by cpdaman


The charts I show are on a 5 minute timescale.

That would not be the same as the daily charts you are looking at.

reply to post by redhatty and Rockpuck


Thanks for the explanation!

Yea that "fake" bond situation is pretty crazy indeed. A few questions that come to mind is what were they planning on doing with them? It isn't like a bank is going to take 135 billion in fake bonds without checking the authenticity of them first. And what happen to them? Are the people dead, or in witness protection?

Crazy situation.

reply to post by Vitchilo


Detroit's story is nothing short of fascinating.. I wonder what will become of the city. I for one despised the place since the first time I had a hockey tourney there.. I found it disgusting, the only word I can think of to define the city.

Then of course there is the worrying side that how Detroit fares, could very well represent the country as a whole. We need only to look across the country at California to see that it is not a Detroit/Michigan problem, but a National problem. A problem our Imperial President has decided should be veiled from us, the severity any ways.

reply to post by Hastobemoretolife


I actually doubt that the bonds where fake. Our government receives financial aid from some of the most corrupt institutions around.. including various Mafia's around the world, among various other subversive groups.