Global Economic Crash Late July!

I totally think this economic collapse is being staged. The powers that be WANT the American system to break down so that they can declare an "emergency" martial law or some such that, like the Patriot Act, will never be done away with.

I think it will probably occur AFTER Obama is president, they need someone the unruly liberals adore and trust to be the one to pull the rug out from under our Constitution so as to minimize our seeing it coming, and our dissent while it happens.

reply to post by crw2006

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The banks need to bite the bullet and do the right thing. Those who are about to be foreclosed need to have their mortgages revised to current market value and current interest rates. If they still can't afford even that payment, then the foreclosure goes through. If they can afford the new payment, then this is the best option for everyone.

Without this kind of intervention, it will be a continuing spiral downwards, prices will plummet and as prices plummet, more and more loans will go bad, causing more forced sales and driving prices even lower. Then the banks will all fail, meaning there will be no money for anyone to buy even the dirt cheap foreclosed homes. No one benefits without intervention.

Gools,

I've always been more of a fundamental and concept guy in regards to markets myself. However, I've found T&A to be very usefull in a market that seems to be ignoring fundamentals. The Hindenberg Omen is very interesting to me and its past reliabillity in predicting substantial declines is compelling. If the Hindy signal holds up we would see the action it predicts happen within 120 days of June 6th the confirming signal was on the 16th and the third (which doesn't seem to increase chances of decline only 2 are needed) happened the 17th.

In regards to the DOW, I believe it is much less important than the S&P 500. The DOW could possibly hold up due to the amount of international exposure that the companies on it have. The Russel 2000 is of interest as well because the companies on it are much smaller and will feel the effects of tightening credit first and harder than larger companies. One cannot however totally ignore the DOW because it is the one index people who don't really follow stocks and markets know about.

My IRA is currently all in short term treasuries and I'm trading with my "gamblin money".

reply to post by kosmicjack

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here is a link for the "declared natural desasters" by FEMA www.fema.gov...

weakening the populas, buying out land by FEMA, closing 315 miles of Mississippi, USNORTHCOM joint exercises you name it!

Welcome to the North American Union!

I have been saying this for the better part of a year now.

Hate to be the bringer of even worse news, but we are just now seeing the beginning of what is going to get worse and worse.

If people think the sub-prime mortgage mess has been bad, wait until 2009 when all of these designer mortgage loans start to adjust and the defaults go through the roof. People who did pay option ARMS and interest only loans in 06-08 are going to see all of that negative amortization catching up to them. Millions of borrowers will be upside down on their homes, and because the lending guidelines have tightened so dramatically the majority of these people will not be able to re-finance out of their current loans because they no longer qualify. This doesnt even include the people who now owe more on their home than it is worth due to the down shift in property values.

We have not even seen the worst of it by a long shot, and these are not bad credit, sub prime borrowers. This time around it will be the $300K + properties because so many people bought these houses with income that could only support minimum payments that only cover the interest and pay nothing towards principle.

When all of these loans begin to default you are going to see buy backs and financial losses so severe it will make the sub prime crash seem like a walk in the park.

those that watch bond prices may have noted the 2yr has risen in the last month or so to almost 3% trying to force the FED's hand in raising rates.

Raising rates (outside of a .25% bone) is not going to happen in any significant way because of the pain it would likely bring to the highly LEVERAGED financial sector. so instead the only way i know to bring down rates would be a FLIGHT to perceived safety into bonds. How does the gov't /fed orchestrate a flight to safety -well stocks have got to go south.

maybe the fed simply stops buying futures in the DJIA, which they (PPT) were rumoured to be doing when the markets were panicking in march, or perhaps reuters plays up recession talk, or simply they pressure banks to report more of the losses that have gone unreported

so even if we don't see a crash , i see stocks falling because the fed/govt does not like where the bond market is right now, and they need bond prices to rise (yields to fall on the two year toward 2%) and if the stock /bond market is a see-saw then when bonds go up, stocks.....

[edit on 19-6-2008 by cpdaman]

reply to post by MischeviousElf

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If you look at the overall trend since 1994 it's pretty scary. It's pretty obvious this was inevitable.


Also, I did some research recently for a thread of my own I started on fuel prices. A few links I thought I woudl share..

Department of Energy 2008 annual energy outlook
www.eia.doe.gov...

Department of Energy Forecasting
www.eia.doe.gov...

DOE Short-term energy outlook (scary)
www.eia.doe.gov...

-ChriS

Yep Black-ops. The ALT-A, and pay option ARM is gonna make sub-prime look like dropping a $20 bill on the ground and having the wind blow it down a sewer drain. Sure it sucks but you get over it. These things however are likely to spur CONgress to do somethng really stupid like price controls, bailouts, or something so silly I can't even comprehend it. I'm pretty cynical and pessimistic naturally but this stuff is disturbing in it's implications.

this thread brought back a memory of an old movie that was made in 1981 with Lee Majors called The Last Chase. You can watch it on youtube at www.youtube.com...

And for those who want to dump everything into gold you are making a mistake. If there is a collapse of the enconmy and a Great Depression 2 then the things that you will need the most will be food and water and the means to generate your own. Protection (gun) to protect your food & water. Stockpile of food water and fuel to last to the next growing season. Seeds and tools for planting etc. A pile of gold will do you know good at a store with empty shelves. Just some common sense items to start your holy crap we're screwed life.

No, the Global Economic Crisis won't start until mid-August; I predict it's going to start on the 15-16 August and I'm quite confident with it.

But you're write, this is the "beginning of the end" for the Global Economy.

I wonder if anyone else notices the trend that I set on ATS and some of the topics comming out of the Puppets with such high ATS points?

Sheep, they are micro managing you the sheep, and they are the shepards that are putting the sheep back in to their flow.

You can see what is what, I hope.

Be Aware of the issue's.

There is a solution. When the crap falls and you are ready for the truth. Uknow_me and know where to find me.

If things are going to fall apart that quickly, I think I'll default on my debts. Especially my spousal support and child support. But wait! I was never married, I have no kids. I mean my bar tab and my bookie. I won't pay them. Take care--------------------PC

reply to post by musselwhite

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While I'm sure all of your threads on the topic were very interesting, the essay I was referring to was linked on one of my favorite blogs:

ranprieur.com...

and I believe it was referencing this guy's theories:

thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com... - Who is brilliant in his analysis.



[edit on 19/6/2008 by kosmicjack]

Oh crap. I am worried. I breezed through this threat to the last page. Should people start to take their money out of the banks?

I am clueless with this sort of thing.

What is so stupid about the human race and its problems, is it's all on make believe money. Made up system
If people that are in control would just say game over lets start again, lets help everyone, nothing bad would happen. We are stuck in our own creation of a give and take system. Quite pathetic for even a stage 0 civilization. yea for greed!

[edit on 19-6-2008 by Optix]

reply to post by Illusionsaregrander

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They want the middle class gone!

The Irish and Chinese stock market are showing what is about to happen to Western markets.

Here is a chart comparing a Year tread with the Chinese main index and the Dow Jones




In the last month, the Chinese markets have been having massive sell off's - from 4% to even 7% a day. Why is the index relevant? Two reasons:

Inflation is a BIG problem and is starting to effect and worry the Chinese government, investors are showing their fears within the market. Secondly, the index has dropped below certain psychological barriers - which the Dow Jones and FTSE 100 are testing now. The Chinese market has grown so much in the last year or two, the bubble has now burst.

We are overdue a 20% correction in the markets, like the Chinese market, but I believe in 1987 allege central banks fighting each other is what caused Black Monday (that is why the comparison is being made now with the Fed and the ECB). Who knows what will happen to the markets if either the Fed or ECB increase rates.

As for an economic collapse in America; only two things can cause it; end of the petro Dollar cycle or the Chinese use the economic nuclear option. End of the petro cycle will not start until OPEC builds a single currency (which they are planning) or when oil is paid for in Euro's (only certain countries are doing it). 2010 is when OPEC is meant to switch or unpeg from the Dollar.

China has no intention to kill off the US - yet - even though I believe the 500 drop in the Dow Jones last Feb was a test by China.

[edit on 19-6-2008 by infinite]

Iran pulling $75 billion from Europe has got to be a bad thing.

link to Iran $75 billion on ATS

The worlds banks survive on money being loaned back to them by the oil countries.

Now we work as communities to get real news. Soon we will work locally to get food.

Does anyone remember the last stock market crash? Months before the crash a Major bank fell out and JP morgan bought them up for pennies on the dollar, all by simply spreading rumors that their liquidity was rapidly falling. Bear stearns?

and WOW, how predictable this is. You start a useless war 4 years in advance to make sure there isn't any money to fall back on. You then let all the loans out you can, anyone that wants one pass em! Remember "Margin Call?" You create an entire empire, let alone world, that runs off of one central element, oil, then spike it up and up, leaving us no choice but to pay for it. Then you raise all the prices for every basic need a person needs to survive, electricity, water, food. All while doing the old Rome trick, KEEP THEM OCCUPIED! wow our entertainment has taken off, movies still doing strong, i mean jesus, Tiger Woods gets 307 mil a year. incredible.

Now what would you need to complete this whole idea, some where to put the bast*rds that revolt, and fema made sure they got all the camps together. And bush made sure he rewrote the f*cking constitution so that martial law can pritty much happen for any old reason, something happening domestic or in any other part of the world. Then with all of these tasty ingredients in place you just sit back watch the self implosion.


Im sorry for the cursing, its just needed.


The great divine justice is on its way.

ATS... we got this.

INTERESTING!

Well, all I can say is, I feel somewhat vindicated by this, however, I thought it might have been something entirely different, never took this event into account....but,

Here's my OP

I wasn't never quite sure of the exact date...